Ok last idiotic post for the night!! Drinking some nice Greek cognac and has inspired me……

Aria Las Vegas 1/3. Awesome room in terms of aesthetics although tables feel cramped and people remind of Foxwoods people (ie pure misery while playing [heavily asian-accented gentlemen reprimanding a native speaker about his poor English skills for over 20 mins]).

Drink selection and service: par excellence!!!!

All this is irrelevant:

Effective Stacks $300

Hero: playing aggressively. Mostly taking pots down with bet pre and c-bet. Back down with marginal calls and folding or folding after obviously beat.

Villain: Rare female, ex-casino employee. Calls too much pre, folds too much post.


Hero MP TsTc raises to $18

Villain calls.

Flop:

Td 5h Th

Hero checks. What worse would call here?

Villain checks:

Turn:

Td 5h Th Ks

Hero checks

Villain bets $20

Hero calls

River

Td 5h Th Ks 2d

RiRight before its dealt obnoxious asian cries Deuce!!!!!


Hero?

why are you check calling a player who most likely is super passive?

bet turn imo.
check now, you hoped on the turn that she is repping or actually has hit a king, your line looks like a small pp, continue your story now.

Hard to get much here whatever you do, unless she had KK, which is a kind of miracle situation! Check and hope she bets a K or reps one! This is 1-3 and anything is likely!

Grunch

Um... are you suggesting that there is no hand without a ten that will call a bet on a T5Tr board against a player with an aggro image?

Bet flop, bet turn, bet river.

thanks for the replies. very much appreciated!

in game, felt this was a good place to slow play. but i can see that betting flop has some merit (then b/b) especially since that was my standard line heads up in other hands when i opened.

as played, checking river would have probably been optimal. would c/c be optimal or c/b and how much?

in game was worried about getting no action if I checked, and bet out $50 and hoped that line looked bluffy if V was paying attention, especially since other pointed out he would have had a set on the river .

thanks again!

? cbet flop, bet turn, bet river. As played put in a vbet. What else is there to do? Chech raise is almost never going to get a call here. Your better off leading out and hoping V 3bets because of you strange line. Chances are though by the river, the flop check looks very strong.

Simple as this

22-AA, every suited heart that calls preflop, A5, 65s, random floats. Incidentally, everything in that range besides KK, AA, and 55 is probably scared of the king.

I think it's a leak when people smash flops really really hard that they check. Villain doesn't know you've flopped quads, if you're gonna cbet every other time, just cbet.

these spots arent going to be very profitable in the long run, so go for max value every time so u can make sure to stack them every time they actually pick up a hand (55/kk/22 etc)

^ this

the time to hope you look bluffy is the flop. Way more hands are floating you there that may have given up on river. If you bet out, nobody is putting you on quads.

The only way bet/bet/bet isn't the best option is if you have a spewy image in which case I would go 'stack a donk'

bet flop, check turn to check raise

Preflop looks fine as we managed to limit the field to HU.

If there's a BBJ, I would also check the flop (I sleep well at night knowing I didn't fold out runner runner quads, and sleep is very important for our health, so very +EV move in all sorts of ways). Otherwise, I would just bet/bet/bet.

I would pot the turn and shove the river and hope she has something she can't fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Interesting. Have you done/seen the math on this. Possible question for bip!

I'll give it a try.

Assuming you flop quads, villain flops a pair (having two pair with pair on board), could have pocket pair, or one of the cards on the board. Villain needs 2/46 ott and 1/45 otr = 0.000966 odds to BBJ. So EV of ch/ch/ch is otf pot +0.000966 x BBJ value. EV of b/b/b is ??? villain dependent, but assume b/b/b/ get on average PSB otf more, so EV = 2PSB.

So we need the BBJ to be 1035x PSB.

Given a typical 1/2, that goes HU preflop (I know, that is not all that common), say limp, limp, Hero bets 6BB, call, all fold. Pot is 30ish. BBJ (to hero) must be 60x1035 = 31,050. Not in my game.

missing a lot of factors, starting with the fact that hero checking 3 streets doesn't equal 3 streets being checked through.

You're making a mistake in that you're trying to solve this problem by proving whether it is more +EV $$$ wise whether making money off the flop bet > making the very rare BBJ. You're ignoring the fact that BBJs don't come along all that often and, while probably not life changing money, is still huge money to some.

As an example of why trying to calculate this in terms of +EV isn't useful, here's a similar example. A man approaches you on the street for a one-time shot at a jackpot; you can choose either option A or B. Option A, you have an 90% chance at winning $10million. Option B, you have a 10% of winning $10quadrilliongazillion. Which option do you choose?

Ghint:the10%chanceiswaymore+EVmathematically,butif youchosethat,you're******ed,orveryrichG

c/raise turn feels totally FOS. She just might call with her entire range of pps. But it would definitely feel more FOS with an undercard, so the K is not a great card for you. As played, I think I lead river and try to get her to bluff the 2, since she called it out, and people love to do that kind of ****. See how it goes re 3bet sizing on river

OK. agreed re that factor, but the numbers are soooo far off, I don't think those factors overcome my conclusion.

Shove (river). Villain may call with a legit hand or it just sets villain up to level themselves into calling when you way overbet.. especially when they "called" the river card or something funny happened in the hand.

Interesting. I get that you can take a plus EV gamble for BBJ money, and give up the more plus EV money of b/b/b. It's just not life changing money for me. Would be fun to get like 5k or w/e, but I think I will usually pass on that and just b/b/b. Does the odds being 1035 to 1 change your thinking at all?

oh, and... lol. Thanks for this.

It all depends on the size of the potential size of the BBJ plus the affect it will have on your life. If it's no big deal to you to blow your runner-runner opponent out of the pot on the flop, then go ahead and bet/bet/bet. 5K probably ain't no big deal to most people (nice, but no big deal); but there'll begin to get a size where it does begin to be a big deal (every one will have to decide for themselves what that magic number is) and it simply isn't worth the risk; swallow the cheezeburger flop bet, imo.

GhasonlyjustrecentlysurpassedhisBBJwinningswithhis pokerwinningsG

Look at it this way; if instead of TT you had AJo, would you cbet? Probably not, because TT5 board looks kinda dry, and you dont expect anyone to give you credit for anything. Pretty much 22+ probably tries to pick off a cbet here right? Therefore bet your quads and hope they want to "see what happens on the turn". Now here's where it gets a little interesting. If you check turn and bet river you basically turn your hand face up. It looks far too obvious that you have at least top pair and simply tried to go for the ole check-raise on the turn. Plus the King is supposed to look somewhat threatening, i.e. good card to bluff for you. It's also a bad card since live players arent used to that many double barrels. Basically whatever is only check/folding the turn is still check/folding the river. It's not like she's going to check back the turn with 88 and then hero call the river. You make $0 on either street. BUT, if you cbet again, she may still be tempted to call. The best part is that if the turn or river in any way improves her hand, the SPR has grown enough where you might actually get stacks in. She's pretty much relegated herself to "call down mode" at this point, so you want the pot big enough for her to call it off on the river.

great responses, thanks again!

although a rare situation, i think this will help me correct the leak of not always playing straightforward against straightforward opponents (as IIIIIIIII pointed out).