this. I'm at 15BB/hr at 1/2 and 3/3 over 600 hours. I'm certainly not the best or smartest poster on this forum and I think I leave money out on the table most if not all times I play.

I think 20BB/hr is possible.

this stuff gives me a headache. 'probably' means waaaay more than 99% likely. more than 99.9% likely in live poker.

if you're a 10bb hr winner over 900 hours, remember there is just as much chance of your real win rate being a 20bb/hr winner as there is of you being a losing player

There is a formula that will calculate an hourly range based on what % confindence you want in it, like 90%, 95%, 99%, etc. You just need how many hours played, hourly rate and hourly standard deviation over that sample.

the data set that you use for those statistics bell curves cant be reliant on values from variables that cannot be calculated. in other words looking at your +$ & -$ as a basis for statistical analysis will give you a result, but that result will not mean anything because those numbers were generated from situations that can never be identically replicated and thus future outcomes cannot be predicted based on past results. here's some examples of what i mean:

1) how much of an edge do you currently have on an ever-changing revolving door of players? how would you quantify an edge? bb/hr?
2) is your edge decreasing or increasing vs the general population that you play with? how fast or slow is this? how would you quantify this?
3) are you game selecting well always? or just sometimes? how do attach a number to represent this qualitative aspect of poker?
4) are you running + or - EV? how would you know unless everything went to showdown, villains always showed the losing hand, and you pokerstoved every live hand?

i think that illustrates my point enough...I dont believe the winrate can be counted on long term and I dont think calculating a number that is dependent on so, so many volatile variables (they're all over the place) is particularly useful for any purpose.

not only that, but there are so many millions of permuatations of board textures & hand combos that in order to get a decent sample on any 1 particular scenario you'd have to play a lifetime of poker & document everything


i think in summary the overall idea is that LLSNL stakes ARE high enough to make at least a mid 5 figure income and the best of the best can make well into 6 figures. thats my best guess.

I have it from a reliable source who has more hours by far than any of the numbers posted recently ITT that $24 is not out of the question at all at $1/$2. He could be lying but I have every reason to believe him.

agree

easily. there will be people making more than 40 an hour over the long term...the only limiter will be that they would move up in stakes

Hi all, I just did a rough estimate on gas/toll cost for just over 200 hrs of play the past year or so. And it came out to be just under $500! So I'm wondering whether anyone here takes that into consideration when tracking your win rates/profits, etc.

if you're using your win-rate as a determinant of skill/progression, it doesn't matter as long as you're consistent; however, most people calculate their win-rates w/o things like drink/food orders/transit cost, so if you're comparing yourself to others just leave it out. if you're using your win-rate to help figure out life expenses/bills, just include gas prices into your monthly spending cost just like anything else, because subtracting it to win-rate isn't really accurate (where do you draw the line, at anything that eats money? bathroom breaks? food orders?), and the other thing is that it can't be represented as by x$/h because the distance to/from the casino is the same whether you play 2 hours or 12 hours.

You take it into consideration in reducing your profit, but NOT your win rate.

Win rate = gross revenue/ receipts/ whatever

Gas and tolls = expenses

Win rate - expenses = net profit

Mind you, this is all an academic exercise; even if you play pro in the US, the IRS does not allow you to claim gas or tolls as expenses.

I've spent like 1k+ in travel expenses the 2 months I played in London and other places. Taxi every day and hotel can do that.

You're also supposed to report the result of each wager, as in, every pot.
And you're not supposed to "claim" tips to the waitresses ... but those typically come right off your stack and get lumped into win/loss.

2+2 has a poster named Russ Fox who is a CPA specializing in gambling related tax issues. Russ says that reporting by session, rather than by hand, is acceptable to the IRS.

He has a sticky in the legislation forum for anybody who wants to get really educated about tax issues.

Good to know. Different from what my accountant said (on short research).

Yeah, don't take it as a negative against your accountant. If I'm remembering what Russ has said correctly, there is no definitive statement by the IRS that reporting cash games by the session is the correct way to do it. Russ takes that position partly because it's the only practical way to do it, and partly because the IRS considers a tournament a single wager (thus establishing that a series of hands can be treated as a single event). So he does all his cash game clients by session and the IRS has never hassled them over it.

I find the play to be kind of nitty at a lot of tables after the flop. People will call with junk before the flop, but pots rarely get that big. Sometimes it will take a while before someone gets their stack in. Also, a lot of people will buy in small, or have small stacks at the table. So even if they play really badly, you won't win much from them. Another problem is it's hard to make a big hand. And even if you do, people are often reluctant to pay off. Even if the pot gets big, once you start betting around 40-100 dollars, people seem to be much more reluctant to pay off. And if they are paying you off, you're often going to need something better than just top pair, and it can take a long time to get a better hand than that.

I don't really find that these no limit tables are filled with a bunch of morons who have no clue about how to play the game. Most of the players still have plenty of leaks, but they're not as bad as some people are here say they are. If you play a TAG style and you're not getting many hands, a lot of people tend to think you're a nit and will be afraid to pay you off.

There are also a bunch of ways to run bad in this game. I remember reading an article from Ed Miller from a few months ago about 5 different ways to run bad.

For reasons such as these, I'm skeptical of some of the higher win rates. I definitely don't remember anyone saying they beat the game for $40 an hour over a long period of time. If that winrate is something that we can do, then I'd really like someone to educate me on that because it sounds super hard to believe.

On the other hand, I am less skeptical about high winrates from the players who are regulars on this site for obvious reasons.

there are just as many ways to run good

I'll preface this by saying that I'm not the best low stakes player by a long shot - there are better people to give out advice than me.

that said, I'm a 14.8 BB/hr winner at 1/2 and 3/3 over a reasonable sample size - 600 hours. I'm on a bit of a heater recently (see my AA thread in the forum) but until a few weeks ago, I actually think I was running below EV.

I've picked up 3 things from a few of the posters on here I really respect (DGI Harris and Rusty Bumwaters specifically) which have improved my win rate considerably.

1. Improve your bet sizing.
2. Force yourself to value bet more in thin value situations
3. Resist the temptation to see the extra card when you have marginal holdings

I bet if you do these three things, you'll more than double your win rate

Getting value with proper bet sizing especially overbetting and image creation can do lots for your winrate.

Being able to adjust between fat value and big bluffs based on dynamic is key too.

I had an accountant tell me that I could write my polo hoodie off as a business expense, since I bought it to be able to play comfortably at an ice cold casino. Not sure why we can't call gas/tolls a business expense if this is somehow possible lol.

Because I can't deduct my driving expenses on my way to work.

You are basically saying that all vehicles and methods of transportation are tax deductible.

With all due respect, and I do mean this sincerely, making a logical argument using a reference to authority holds absolutely no validity if you do not establish the authority of your reference. Which is not to say that you need to tell us that your source is specifically Phil Ivey (or whoever) but simply playing 10,000 hours of 1/2 is not sufficient grounds for being an authority on win rates.

And your coda that "he could be lying" certainly also does not help your claim.

Having said that, if your source has access to data that show that $24/hour is sustainable over the long run, we would all love to see it.

My source has several thousand hours at 1/2. I know that he has kept meticulous records. I do not think he would share such records on a public forum which is his right.

Playing that much doesn't make him an authority, his results stand on their own. I mean it's not likely we are going to find thousands and thousands of players, all of whom have thousands of hours played at a given live level, who will come share their data on this forum. That's just not going to happen when we are discussing live results.

So all we can do is go with the small sample of players who do have big sample sizes and make some inferences about win rates. That was my point.

That's cool. I was just unclear as to whether this was another case of someone knowing an individual who is making $XX/hour over a large sample size or a case of someone having access to a larger amount of data or some mathematical model that can show us under some/what set of conditions, $XX/hour is a sustainable rate for $1/$2 for YY% of players.

I could better answer this if it had relevance to what I posted. My comment that you quoted is about how silly it is that EVERYONE HERE claims to win huge amounts, not whether it is possible for the top 1% or 2% etc to win X amount. Is every single 1/2 player on this site an incredibly talented, disciplined, solid TAG who wins $25+ hourly and fit into the top 1% of players?

In my area, there are plenty of $300 max and $500 max 1/2 NL games. As a matter of fact, there are relatively few $200 max ones anymore.

$500 max isn't all that relevant since in my experience very few players buy in for anywhere close to that. Also, as far as the underground club scene, $500 max often gets somewhat negated by a higher rake.