Im guessing that 7k downswing was at a 1k max buy in game where most players buy in that deep.

If not, dam bro.

In my spreadsheet I've added a BadBeat Jackpot column where I tally all extra type winnings; that way, I can keep my non-BBJ/etc. winrate separate from my BBJ-included winrate. Even though there is a BBJ drop from every pot so in some sense it seems ok to include BBJ type winnings, I sorta felt it necessary to do this or otherwise my lifetime winrate at live 2/4 limit would be a rather unrealistic ~$25/hr.

Gcomplainingthathittinga31.5KBBJhasthrownmywinrate outtawackG

Part of it was (about $2k when I played at the Aria). The rest of it...not so much.

I'm not going to claim that I played perfectly. I definitely didn't and I made some mistakes, made some bad reads, assumed I had more fold equity than I did, etc.

But I would say a good $5k of it fell squarely into the "you will some day run worse than you ever thought possible" category. I had a week where I flopped five sets and two straights, got it all-in by the turn at the latest, and lost each hand, and only twice did I get it in bad (set over set, and top two over bottom set when board paired on the turn). I want it to be clear that I'm not complaining, lest someone direct me to BBV; that's the reality of the situation and that's the reality of poker. It's merely an illustration of how bad someone (anyone) can run, and why it's important to have a bankroll large enough to withstand a run like that.

Yes, that's a pretty unlikely series of events. But play enough poker and weird stuff like that is going to happen, and I want more than a $7k buffer for when these events occur. I don't know any reasonable BR management philosophy that says that ~12-14BI is enough for live play.

Unless I missed it, no one is saying take that $7k and just play 2/5 until you go busto or robusto. Any reasonable bankroll management strategy should have you implementing a strict stop loss when you are taking shots in good games on a short roll.

Boltyou, id be unable to play tilt free through a stretch like that. Hat's off if you kept a clear head through that

Jinx posted myself. Chopped a WPT Open turbo for 3800 Wednesday night, but then donked off ~1800 of it at 2/5 after. Lesson learned, I have a "winning tilt" issue I need to curb. That'll drop the WR down a bit

i don't but do whatever you like

my WR is what i make after tips/rake/time charge

comps buy my food

Pretty much this...

Play when the games good at first and then move down if you get creamed.

I couldn't. I set a strict stop loss and then I took a couple of weeks off. I thought I had a strong mental game, but that reaallllly tested it. I knew something was wrong when I would consider stupid things like "should I fold top set on the flop? WAIT NO, WHAT ARE YOU DOING, STOP AFTER THIS HAND AND DON'T COME BACK UNTIL YOU ARE NOT THINKING LIKE AN IDIOT OKAY I'M ALL-I....AAARRRGGHHHHH HE HIT HIS GUTSHOT"

I took some time off, did other things, read Jared Tendler's book, and came back to the casino fresh and tilt-free.

4k to 7k swing ain't **** imo, thats like losing 350 bucks at 25nl

trolling aside, 4k swing ain't **** period.

Re: Whether to count high hands, etc.

Here's something to consider: Are you playing longer because of the high hand? Not, are you chasing it, but are you at the table because you hit something?

Tonight, I was up about $300. I would normally have left. I had hit quad Jacks, though, and needed to play until 5 a.m. - more than 2 hours more. The high hand held, I collected $300. I lost about $75 of my $300 profit.

So, I would count a high hand type of bonus. I think.

I wouldn't... you losing $75 from playing 2 hours is just normal variance.

I would not count my food orders as part of my hourly either, or my commute, though I keep track of those separately so I know how much it's costing me. Similarly I would not count bonuses or free bet chips, and so on.

In my last two sessions I am -4k although a lot of it is with straddling and deeper stacks

also I play bad

that will do it

lol

Good point I didnt think of that. I do play a little longer sometimes to qualify for a poker promotion.

Yeah, food, gas, tolls, tips, etc dont count as part of my winrate. I only count my buyin and how much i cash out.

I'm amazed at how much $/hr tips were costing me once I started keeping track. I had to cut down a bit and now I'm at around $3/hr in tips. Had to cut out the tips on pots <$20 and now I never tip more than $2 (most of the time $1 unless it's a big pot).

I've seen you post this many times 2Outs, and I'm curious what buy-in format you're assuming for 1/2 NL. Are you proposing that this is true for any 1/2 NL game regardless of buy-in, or just for 100bb buy-in games (or smaller)?

If the latter, you may want to consider that many of us play in games with bigger buy-ins allowed. My city's casinos all allow a $500 max buy-in for 1/2 NL and all have just terrible players. I'd estimate the maximum winrate (top 1%) in these games to be $30+/hr.

For a $200 max buy-in game, I tend to agree with you that the maximum winrate is capped around $20/hr, unless the games are completely fish-infested.

Over the past 3 years, I've played poker on a semi-serious basis...keep logs of all my sessions...after about 900 hrs of play, i'm winning at a rate of $24/hr. The past month and a half...I'm seemingly experiencing a downswing...which is forcing me to question myself if my game needs re-evaluation and tweaking...(the above hourly rate is including every session I've played up to this post)...didn't know if I have enough of a sample size to establish myself as a "winning" player or not...I know I still have leaks, (and many more than I originally thought)...but I'd like to what exactly i should take/keep to my game

Statistically speaking, NO that's not a large enough sample for statistical inference. There have been other posts (mostly in the OL targeted subforums) that discuss the required sample size, where people like to see 100k+ hands. The problem is with using those kinds of metrics live is that the slow pace (30h/hr?) makes collecting such a sample impossible. The game has changed out from under you during the time you collected it, so you can't really lump the early results with the later results meaningfully.

Edit: If you've been a solid winner for 900 hrs live over 3 years, I'm inclined to say that you're probably a winning player. Yea, you may have been on a long upswing during that time, but that's unlikely.

What games are you playing that you have a winrate of $24/hr?
Most will agree that that is a _very_ high rate for $1/2, and probably not sustainable over high hr/week samples. (If you're only playing 8 hours each week during prime weekend hours it's certainly possible, but very hard to pull off with 40hr/week when you're playing on a Wednesday at noon in a rock garden.)

At $2/5 that seems like a reasonably good, but still slightly high, rate.


Because of the 30 hands/hr that you're going to average live, a 2-3 month downswing is completely possible. I've had such swings myself, even when getting my money in way ahead repeatedly. My immediate advice is to first make sure that you don't tilt when it starts to happen, if you've been running bad and losing a BI or two sets you off ... the best thing to do is learn to take a break or quit, it's far more valuable than trying to change your game.

Don't try to change your game all at once. Do it slowly. Pick 1 or 2 leaks at a time, and work on them.

It's a a decent indicator for practical purposes, tempered with objective analysis of your edge and your play.

What's with all this. $24/hour is not that high for 1/2 at all. Completely reasonable to win 10bbs/hour when people gift stacks all the time with ridiculous plays.

the most recent downswings have tempted me to change/evaluate my game...but fixing 1-2 leaks at a time seems to be much better advice...maybe adding 1-2 more types of plays to my arsenal (or removing certain plays from my arsenal).....these numbers are from $1/$3 and $2/$5 live (home games)....mostly $1/$3....at home games....but you're right in assuming I'm not playing that much at a time...usually 4-5 hr sessions at about 2x (sometimes 3x week)...the sessions actually vary a lot...sometimes 3 sessions at 4-6 hrs per session...sometimes just a single 10hr session...

Over 212 sessions, I've averaged half a BI ($100) profit per session

Anyhow...fixing just 1-2 leaks at a time seems to be a very good step to take next...after reading a lot of the stickys...i've been considering switching to a more LAG style type play to really crush these games...but i think what i've been doing so far seems to be ok

The real question is why not move up if you beat 1/2 for that much?

2/5+ is scarce in some places I guess?