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Old 02-21-2019, 12:39 PM   #23201
AlanBostick
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by typesick View Post
1500 hours of live poker in the exact game we’re talking is not a small sample.
Yes, it is. It's only about forty to fifty thousand hands.
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Old 02-21-2019, 01:38 PM   #23202
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by samo View Post
GG - I believe there is a term for the pro/rec player, but it escapes me. I want to say "procreational".
I think G realized the necessity for a term here years ago and coined CRC (Competitive Recreational Cardplayer). ~90% of the opponents sitting at tables are CRCs (which include retirees attempting to earn a small income), at least in my experience.

GcluelessCRCnoobG
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Old 02-21-2019, 01:58 PM   #23203
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Well the term "reg" is close. Some people assign that to mean a winning player, while others just mean that it's someone that's there all the time.
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Old 02-21-2019, 03:06 PM   #23204
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Yes, it is. It's only about forty to fifty thousand hands.
Only? That's a lot of hands live where bb/100's are through the roof.
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Old 02-21-2019, 03:26 PM   #23205
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Winrates being higher has nothing to do with how many hands are needed to accurately assess things.
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Old 02-21-2019, 03:33 PM   #23206
typesick
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Winrates being higher has nothing to do with how many hands are needed to accurately assess things.
I don't believe that's true.
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Old 02-21-2019, 03:42 PM   #23207
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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I have zero doubt that $100-$135/hr and maybe more is possible at Commerce 5/10. I have nowhere near enough of a sample there to know what my actual win rate would be but I saw enough when I played there to know how much softer it is than other 5/10 games Ive played in.

Also, I think $75/hr is sustainable long term at Commerce 5/5.
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S. Florida is another place where pros from overseas pass thru in waves, so I know exactly what you mean. Right now we have some Brazilian guys here and a team of 6 Latvians just left. There 3 Czech guys that come for a month or 2 every year...ect.

Without a doubt, you know more about Commerce than I do. When I say $100+/hr is possible playing 5/10, Im talking about any 5/10 game. Ive played enough of it in a few different places around the Country to be 100% sure that's possible.

Ive only been to L.A. for poker once and I played in 4 different rooms. I played enough in those rooms to see that the action in all 4 rooms was glaringly better than where I play. It doesn't even matter how I ran or what my results were. There's no denying that the L.A. games are looser and softer than just about anywhere else in the Country.

Based on my extensive 2/5 experience....knowing what my win rate is...knowing how much softer the Commerce game is....knowing that its 5/5 instead of 2/5....I have no doubt whatsoever that the Commerce 5/5 can be beaten for $70-$75/hr.

So, I dont see how the Commerce 5/10 cant be beaten for $100/hr+.
You specifically referred to Commerce when you mentioned certain hourly numbers. You are entitled to your own opinion though. However, if you don't have significant experience and you make such claims as you have it only hurts your credibility. You should not have 0 doubt. Again, you can say whatever you like and you seem to, but throwing out what some would consider an unsubstantiated claim does not help anyone.
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Old 02-21-2019, 03:46 PM   #23208
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by cannabusto View Post
Winrates being higher has nothing to do with how many hands are needed to accurately assess things.
It's kind of true in the sense that a 1BB/h error in measurement is relatively much more when your win-rate is only 1 BB/h compared to someone winning 15BB/h. Maybe that's what he means?
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Old 02-21-2019, 04:09 PM   #23209
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

The BB/hr makes a huge difference for ROR and BR requirement calculations. https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
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Old 02-21-2019, 05:19 PM   #23210
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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You specifically referred to Commerce when you mentioned certain hourly numbers. You are entitled to your own opinion though. However, if you don't have significant experience and you make such claims as you have it only hurts your credibility. You should not have 0 doubt. Again, you can say whatever you like and you seem to, but throwing out what some would consider an unsubstantiated claim does not help anyone.
I dont need significant experience in one place to estimate win rates. I have significant overall experience and I played a plenty big enough sample at Commerce to be able to compare the action there and level of play there to other places.

A good player will win more at Commerce than most other rooms around the Country. There is no denying that and anyone who has traveled around and played 25-50 different rooms will agree. What the exact increase in win rate at Commerce (or any L.A.) game is, can be debated....but whatever a good players win rate is in their current room, it will be higher at Commerce. Of that I have no doubt at all.
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Old 02-21-2019, 05:38 PM   #23211
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I'm pretty sure I averaged around $125/hr at Commerce back in 2015/16 for over 1300 hours.

The games today have a lot more European pros. Your winrate is pretty much capped by how many decent players are at the table. I don't play much Commerce these days (the $5/10 there is too small for me) but you can bet your ass that no one is winning 10bb/hr at a table with 6 pros. The 3 losers would have to be losing something close to 30bb/hr for that to be true, and people just aren't close to being that bad now. Most of the time anyway. Occasionally you get someone that bad but it's not consistent.
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Old 02-21-2019, 05:49 PM   #23212
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Also, if someone wants to play 1500+ hours at the Commerce $5/10 in a year and bet that they can make $100/hr I'd snap take the under for a lot of money, although in practice it'd be impossible to verify as people can lie, etc...
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Old 02-21-2019, 05:49 PM   #23213
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
I'm pretty sure I averaged around $125/hr at Commerce back in 2015/16 for over 1300 hours.

The games today have a lot more European pros. Your winrate is pretty much capped by how many decent players are at the table. I don't play much Commerce these days (the $5/10 there is too small for me) but you can bet your ass that no one is winning 10bb/hr at a table with 6 pros. The 3 losers would have to be losing something close to 30bb/hr for that to be true, and people just aren't close to being that bad now. Most of the time anyway. Occasionally you get someone that bad but it's not consistent.
No doubt about that, but when I was playing there, theres no chance there were 6 pros playing at any table I was at. Maybe they play later in the evening but if so, Id say dont play later in the evening.
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Old 02-21-2019, 06:21 PM   #23214
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Also, if someone wants to play 1500+ hours at the Commerce $5/10 in a year and bet that they can make $100/hr I'd snap take the under for a lot of money, although in practice it'd be impossible to verify as people can lie, etc...
So what do you think the upper range would be currently, if not forced to make 1500 hours in one year?

Its sounding like $120's... or less due to how the game has changed? (I find we use this excuse a lot though, so I discount perceived year to year changes). My 270 hours is basically my first few hundred hours playing live cash. It felt like $120 was really difficult to maintain because of its reliance on people dumping stacks for no good reason, but maybe that really is the norm most of the time.
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Old 02-22-2019, 10:06 AM   #23215
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
It's kind of true in the sense that a 1BB/h error in measurement is relatively much more when your win-rate is only 1 BB/h compared to someone winning 15BB/h. Maybe that's what he means?
Yeah. And we can obviously be confident in our ability to beat the game quicker. But idk how we get any closer to accurately assessing the winrate just by winning more.
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Old 02-22-2019, 10:28 AM   #23216
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I’m getting my tax return next week and I’m thinking of starting to go play live a bit more. I’m primarily an online player and I’ve beaten limits up to 25NL over a decent sample size. I would start at $1-$2 and see how it goes, is $20/hr sustainable for a winning online micro player? I’m averaging around $4/hr online so anything above that is gravy .

I’ll still be playing online but I feel there’s more potential profit playing live poker.
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Old 02-22-2019, 11:06 AM   #23217
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Yes, $20/hr is likely sustainable, but be prepared for some serious adjustments, the biggest ones being that flatting is not usually a sign of a weak range live and that calling too much is by far the most common leak. For more on converting to live, see this (admittedly exaggerated for effect, but not as much as you think) thread.
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Old 02-23-2019, 01:47 PM   #23218
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
I'm pretty sure I averaged around $125/hr at Commerce back in 2015/16 for over 1300 hours.

The games today have a lot more European pros. Your winrate is pretty much capped by how many decent players are at the table. I don't play much Commerce these days (the $5/10 there is too small for me) but you can bet your ass that no one is winning 10bb/hr at a table with 6 pros. The 3 losers would have to be losing something close to 30bb/hr for that to be true, and people just aren't close to being that bad now. Most of the time anyway. Occasionally you get someone that bad but it's not consistent.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
Also, if someone wants to play 1500+ hours at the Commerce $5/10 in a year and bet that they can make $100/hr I'd snap take the under for a lot of money, although in practice it'd be impossible to verify as people can lie, etc...
If you are pretty sure you were around 125/hr why would it be so hard to believe that someone could beat it for 100/hr? I feel like the norm is like 2-3 pros/serious players per table now who dont suck plus some recs who buy in short and then some older tighter regs who occasionally buy in 80-150 bbs.That pro/serious range can and often does go from 2-3 to 4-6 easily throughout the year though.
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Old 02-23-2019, 05:49 PM   #23219
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I don't think $125/hr was my true winrate. I ran above average. I have had equally long streches with winrates that were a fraction of that.

The games also aren't as soft as they used to be consistently (they still aren't bad, but people used to gii way worse).
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Old 02-23-2019, 09:58 PM   #23220
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

“Pros” or not, very few are any good. Greater than $100/hr over 1500 hours is very possible.

Last edited by typesick; 02-23-2019 at 10:16 PM.
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Old 02-23-2019, 10:24 PM   #23221
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I'm not arguing that it's impossible.

I said I'd bet the under.
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Old 02-24-2019, 12:08 AM   #23222
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I think G realized the necessity for a term here years ago and coined CRC (Competitive Recreational Cardplayer). ~90% of the opponents sitting at tables are CRCs (which include retirees attempting to earn a small income), at least in my experience.

GcluelessCRCnoobG
I think you're being generous with the "competitive" designation

Put it this way, I'd bet there are more people who have results tracker apps than there are people who do any form of study.
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Old 03-03-2019, 02:04 PM   #23223
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Does anyone track win rate difference at 1/2 wiith and without rake?

I'm playing a home game with no rake or jackpot drop. Although I have no where near a real sample to determine my win rate I'm curious how I'd convert my win rate if I were comparing it to a casino game (10% up to $5 with a $1 jackpot drop.)

I only have 30 hours and my win rate is around $20/hr. Trying to figure out if that is a real $12/hr or what.
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Old 03-03-2019, 02:10 PM   #23224
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

It's hard to account for rake in your own statistics. Not only does it come out of the pots that you win, but the stack sizes of you opponents are smaller when you beat them.

That being said, I think a good $1/2 rake is something like $100-150/hr in house share. So maybe $10/hr per player *on average*.
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Old 03-03-2019, 04:20 PM   #23225
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Yea, we’ve talked about it before. It’s pretty complex. I personally have tried to see what is better, $5+2 with promos or straight $5 no promos. The oddity is that promo rooms always have more player pop, but also generally more action. So higher pre-rake wr but higher rake (with partial rakeback) vs lower wr pre rake but lower rake overall.

In general, rake sucks. If you are playing without it and are confident in the game’s providence (this is where my concerns would be) then it’s likely much better for your wr.

One of the reasons I track in excel. I enter game location in each session entry and have to rake stats of each location. I’ll likely never have enough data to mean anything, but it’s there.
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