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Old 02-20-2019, 05:08 AM   #23176
acescracked84
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I don't think it's possible given the scumminess/unwillingness of poker players to be honest but I'd snap side bet anyone in this thread that they can't win $100/hr at Commerce 5/10 full time in a year (say, 1800 hours). And I'd be a massive favorite every time.


I know Bart personally and you have to keep in mind those hours he plays during challenges are often cherry picked for the best times to play poker. I guarantee there's less than 5 people making $100/hr full time at CC 5/10 in 2019.


Finally, people worry too much about winrates. The key is just to play as much volume as you possibly can in the best games. You can't just control your all in equity, going card dead, etc. But you can control just about everything else.
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Old 02-20-2019, 06:25 AM   #23177
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by jelloman View Post
************************************************** ************

Hours are just above 100 for the 3 month period. I also am aware that I'm not playing my best. I used to pride myself in not getting tilted but I think the length of this is causing issues with my play.( see the Q-3 comment above). Would be interesting to see my VPIP of late, but this live poker.

So, maybe next poker room visit, I just try to make good decisions for the entire session and stop trying to force the action.

I mean, damn, this has to end sometime , RIGHT ?
I had a ~100 hour downswing in November/December and I'm up 15k so far this year. 100 hour downswings are definitely real.

Regarding the commerce, I never played the 5/10, the 5/5 wasn't that great when I played it but not a huge sample. The 2/5 $300 max had the most action and worst players I've seen in my life. In just a few weeks I had countless games where people would blind shove, flip a coin to make decisions, and games where straddles and blind raises would stretch from UTG-CO and then people would stack off with 89o. I would thus imagine the 5/5 is also pretty juicy, it just wasn't any time I played it.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 02-20-2019 at 06:38 AM.
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Old 02-20-2019, 09:28 AM   #23178
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

This month marks 2 years into retirement. Below are my $2/$5 NL results:

Total Hours 1,144.49
Total $31,458

Monthly Hours 47.69
Monthly $1,311

BB/Hr 5.5
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Old 02-20-2019, 09:30 AM   #23179
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by samo View Post
This month marks 2 years into retirement. Below are my $2/$5 NL results:

Total Hours 1,144.49
Total $31,458

Monthly Hours 47.69
Monthly $1,311

BB/Hr 5.5
Very nice results. Congrats!
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:27 AM   #23180
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer View Post
No he hadn't. You can find them in the clp forums. I think he did one in 2018, but that's not up. From what I see,

2017 = $103/hr over 497 hrs

2016 = $119/hr over 474 hrs

2015 = $136/hr over 454 hrs

Those numbers are slightly lower than what I saw, but even if we go by those numbers, it seems prettty apparent that an hourly of well over $100 is very possible/probable for strong regs. If such regs really focused on table selection, seat selection, and playing during key times, their hourly rates would be even higher. I am in the midst of my own 500 hour challenge in a little smaller game and will post my results when I’m done, likely in fewer than 2 months.

Last edited by typesick; 02-20-2019 at 10:54 AM.
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Old 02-20-2019, 12:02 PM   #23181
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by samo View Post
This month marks 2 years into retirement. Below are my $2/$5 NL results:

Total Hours 1,144.49
Total $31,458

Monthly Hours 47.69
Monthly $1,311

BB/Hr 5.5
Congrats samo!

I'm guessing day-in / day-out retirees attempting to play for a modest income make up quite a decent chunk of a lot of tables I play at. Sorta somewhere in-between the "pro" vs "rec" player (whatever those terms mean), and some of them likely do fairly well (more leaning towards the "pro" side than the "rec" side).

Ggogogo,imoG
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Old 02-20-2019, 12:22 PM   #23182
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by typesick View Post
I am in the midst of my own 500 hour challenge in a little smaller game and will post my results when Iím done, likely in fewer than 2 months.
While 500 hour challenges are fine and all (noting that for a recreational player like me this would be a year's worth of play), I think what Johnny was getting at above is that it's still a fairly small sample size overall. I posted 6 giraffes a few pages back sorta illustrating this (all 1000+ hour samples, with some decent result differences).

Ggoodluck!G
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Old 02-20-2019, 02:07 PM   #23183
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by acescracked84 View Post
I don't think it's possible given the scumminess/unwillingness of poker players to be honest but I'd snap side bet anyone in this thread that they can't win $100/hr at Commerce 5/10 full time in a year (say, 1800 hours). And I'd be a massive favorite every time.


I know Bart personally and you have to keep in mind those hours he plays during challenges are often cherry picked for the best times to play poker. I guarantee there's less than 5 people making $100/hr full time at CC 5/10 in 2019.


Finally, people worry too much about winrates. The key is just to play as much volume as you possibly can in the best games. You can't just control your all in equity, going card dead, etc. But you can control just about everything else.


And those 5 people are just the 5 pros who ran best this year. Itís likely to be 5 different pros next year.
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Old 02-20-2019, 03:30 PM   #23184
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Wrong. I know many people who I’d expect to have over a $100/hr winrate over a year of 5/10, and I’d expect them to clear that yearly hourly 90%+ of the time. I also don’t believe Bart was just some absurd outlier who happened to run considerably better than expected in all 3 500 hour samples...nor do I think his winrate is the absolute max of what’s is “attainable” for every other good player in rhe country.
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Old 02-20-2019, 04:11 PM   #23185
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
And those 5 people are just the 5 pros who ran best this year. Itís likely to be 5 different pros next year.
Right, selection bias.

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Originally Posted by typesick View Post
Rainbow, I am basing my numbers off my personal results and the results of some of my best poker friends (although not at the Commerce), who I consider to be some of the top players in the game. I am aware that my estimates are high, but I think most people tend to downplay the expectations of others based on their own person biases. Also, I believe Bart Hanson completed 2 500 hour 5/10 challenges at the Commerce over the last few years and had an hourly of over $140.

Thanks. Yes, we are all heavily biased. Maybe I could do better.

I'm still not totally sure I believe $175/hr is possible long term though. It just does not seem like anyone is winning that much, and even $125/hr really stands out so I think I would notice that insane level of crushing at $175/hr. I can see up to maybe $125/hr (?) if you've stumbled upon the key to getting max from the rec players. That's just how it feels from my sample. I'll keep my eyes open for new lines and things to exploit from the weaker players. It does become hard to change things when what you're doing already is working.

Until I started running bad about 50 hours ago, I was at $120/hr over 200 hours. I was thrilled with that but just can't imagine maintaining that - eventually other people get hands that they won't fold, and eventually your cards slow down and limit your options. I have room for improvement in some areas (live issues, like sometimes keeping track of stacks) but I doubt I have such major leaks that I could improve my win rate by more than 50%.
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Old 02-20-2019, 08:57 PM   #23186
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by acescracked84 View Post
I don't think it's possible given the scumminess/unwillingness of poker players to be honest but I'd snap side bet anyone in this thread that they can't win $100/hr at Commerce 5/10 full time in a year (say, 1800 hours). And I'd be a massive favorite every time.


I know Bart personally and you have to keep in mind those hours he plays during challenges are often cherry picked for the best times to play poker. I guarantee there's less than 5 people making $100/hr full time at CC 5/10 in 2019.


Finally, people worry too much about winrates. The key is just to play as much volume as you possibly can in the best games. You can't just control your all in equity, going card dead, etc. But you can control just about everything else.
It's not even about honesty. It's about the delusional nature that comes with the environment. I'm sure people are being honest in their minds but they are just mistaken. I would be willing to say that no players playing full time at commerce 5/10 are making 100/hr over a meaningful sample. The fact that people on this forum extrapolate from some small sample they played at commerce and then confidently say they could make 200k/year is crazy. Then combining that with some silly excuse why they choose not to is painful to read and misleading.
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Old 02-20-2019, 09:14 PM   #23187
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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It's not even about honesty. It's about the delusional nature that comes with the environment. I'm sure people are being honest in their minds but they are just mistaken. I would be willing to say that no players playing full time at commerce 5/10 are making 100/hr over a meaningful sample. The fact that people on this forum extrapolate from some small sample they played at commerce and then confidently say they could make 200k/year is crazy. Then combining that with some silly excuse why they choose not to is painful to read and misleading.
1500 hours of live poker in the exact game we’re talking is not a small sample. It’s also not like he barely made $100/hr. In fact, he cleared $100/hr over that sample fairly easily. Since he’s a very good player, it could even be argued that his winrate could even go up as he learned others’ tendencies and whatnot...and it could also go up due to others avoiding his table as they learn how good he is. There’s almost no reason to think that’s he’s not a $100/hr winner in the game...and there’s almost no reason to think other very strong players aren’t capable of attaining even higher winrates than he did.
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Old 02-20-2019, 09:19 PM   #23188
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by typesick View Post
1500 hours of live poker in the exact game we’re talking is not a small sample. It’s also not like he barely made $100/hr. In fact, he cleared $100/hr over that sample fairly easily. Since he’s a very good player, it could even be argued that his winrate could even go up as he learned others’ tendencies and whatnot...and it could also go up due to others avoiding his table as they learn how good he is. There’s almost no reason to think that’s he’s not a $100/hr winner in the game...and there’s almost no reason to think other very strong players aren’t capable of attaining even higher winrates than he did.
Where can I go to learn more about Bart's experience there? Does he play there often? Tell me more about his sample. Any idea where he normally plays now? While I was at commerce I saw Bart maybe twice a year and everyone I know who plays at commerce rarely saw him either. The games at Commerce can go from good to awful when new crops of pro's come in from overseas which happens very often all year round which used to only be seasonal. Nothing against Bart but again I think its misleading and would like to hear more about his sample.

Update: Just used the google and while I couldn't find a specific total sample he did mention the hours were primarily Fri/Sat. Starting to make more sense. ---- Ending up reading more where he says that he admittedly ran very well and that included some serious v punting. Punting fish who buy in for the max are extremely rare nowadays. So still in the misleading camp in my book.

Last edited by 7weeks2days; 02-20-2019 at 09:43 PM.
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Old 02-20-2019, 09:59 PM   #23189
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by typesick View Post
1500 hours of live poker in the exact game weíre talking is not a small sample. Itís also not like he barely made $100/hr. In fact, he cleared $100/hr over that sample fairly easily.
Agree, 1500 hours is a good sample size. That might be 50,000 hands. Odds are, his winrate is somewhere in that 100-140 range.

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Originally Posted by typesick View Post
Since heís a very good player, it could even be argued that his winrate could even go up as he learned othersí tendencies and whatnot...and it could also go up due to others avoiding his table as they learn how good he is. Thereís almost no reason to think thatís heís not a $100/hr winner in the game...and thereís almost no reason to think other very strong players arenít capable of attaining even higher winrates than he did.
This is where it becomes speculative and I'm not sure I agree. Extrapolating this way is fairly questionable.
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:02 PM   #23190
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by typesick View Post
1500 hours of live poker in the exact game weíre talking is not a small sample. Itís also not like he barely made $100/hr. In fact, he cleared $100/hr over that sample fairly easily. Since heís a very good player, it could even be argued that his winrate could even go up as he learned othersí tendencies and whatnot...and it could also go up due to others avoiding his table as they learn how good he is. Thereís almost no reason to think thatís heís not a $100/hr winner in the game...and thereís almost no reason to think other very strong players arenít capable of attaining even higher winrates than he did.
No one was arguing that $100/hr was impossible @ 5/10. The argument is that only a teeny portion of players can achieve that. If you've listened to any of Bart's material over the last year you would have heard him explain how day time games are much worse, especially because of Euros, so he expects EV to drop by at least half in noon prime hours. Other CLP coaches on Bart's payroll also feel $100/hr is a rather ambitious target for a capped straight 5/10 game especially when you account for daytime hours. Long story short, most grinders are expected to make less. There's a lot more Derek Fishers out there than Kobes.
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:03 PM   #23191
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by typesick View Post
1500 hours of live poker in the exact game we’re talking is not a small sample. It’s also not like he barely made $100/hr. In fact, he cleared $100/hr over that sample fairly easily. Since he’s a very good player, it could even be argued that his winrate could even go up as he learned others’ tendencies and whatnot...and it could also go up due to others avoiding his table as they learn how good he is. There’s almost no reason to think that’s he’s not a $100/hr winner in the game...and there’s almost no reason to think other very strong players aren’t capable of attaining even higher winrates than he did.
When people talk about long term sustainable win rates they are talking about grinding out 2000 hours a year, year after year. It’s easy to find 500 soft hours a year almost anywhere. It’s impossible to find 2000 soft hours a year. So combining Bart’s 500 samples from 3-4 years and comparing it to a 2000 hour grinder is not an apples to apples comparison.

When you play full time you are often playing in games where your EV is drastically lower. Since volume is the name of the game as a pro this becomes a necessity and 100% leads to lower long term win rates. Why people have such a hard time grasping this common sense concept is mind boggling.

Please point me in the direction of the giraffe that shows $2,800,000 in earnings over the last 10 years playing exclusively 5/10. That’s 20,000 hours at $140/hr. I won’t hold my breath.
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:37 PM   #23192
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer View Post
No one was arguing that $100/hr was impossible @ 5/10. The argument is that only a teeny portion of players can achieve that. If you've listened to any of Bart's material over the last year you would have heard him explain how day time games are much worse, especially because of Euros, so he expects EV to drop by at least half in noon prime hours. Other CLP coaches on Bart's payroll also feel $100/hr is a rather ambitious target for a capped straight 5/10 game especially when you account for daytime hours. Long story short, most grinders are expected to make less. There's a lot more Derek Fishers out there than Kobes.
I would say its not being done even if you are Kobe over a meaningful full time sample nowadays.
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:42 PM   #23193
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

If you're making $100-$140/hr you don't need to play 2000 hours a year. Of course nobody is going to have a graph of 20,000 hours of exclusively 5/10 over the last 10 years.

The fact that nobody has a graph like that is proof of nothing. Nobody making that much money plays that many hours or plays anywhere close to that many hours for 10 years.

If you dont think there are players who can sustain $100/hr playing 5/10, you really dont know much about the poker scene. Obviously its not very many people, but people can and are doing it.
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:42 PM   #23194
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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The games at Commerce can go from good to awful when new crops of pro's come in from overseas which happens very often all year round which used to only be seasonal.
It is very true that at Commerce in particular you see waves of overseas players who appear experienced, and then 3-4 weeks later they are gone forever (FYI my 270 hours are over 2+ years). It hasn't seemed to have much affect on my results though and my table has only been tough like 3 or 4 times out of 100 sessions. I honestly dont know what is 'in season' or 'off season' ... for me, its just more players or less... Really not a huge change throughout the year in skill level.

Also, for me Friday and Saturday are good times to play, but not always... and I have found Sunday afternoon to be really good on occasion because for certain rec players, thats the only time they show.

Last edited by rainbow57; 02-20-2019 at 10:51 PM.
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Old 02-20-2019, 11:21 PM   #23195
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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If you're making $100-$140/hr you don't need to play 2000 hours a year. Of course nobody is going to have a graph of 20,000 hours of exclusively 5/10 over the last 10 years.

The fact that nobody has a graph like that is proof of nothing. Nobody making that much money plays that many hours or plays anywhere close to that many hours for 10 years.

If you dont think there are players who can sustain $100/hr playing 5/10, you really dont know much about the poker scene. Obviously its not very many people, but people can and are doing it.
You may be right. I do think itís fair to say my knowledge of the 5/10 landscape at Commerce is more credible than yours is though. I will continue believing that no one is doing it even if you go back to Commerce for another 6 days and win 1000000/hr.
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Old 02-20-2019, 11:23 PM   #23196
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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It is very true that at Commerce in particular you see waves of overseas players who appear experienced, and then 3-4 weeks later they are gone forever (FYI my 270 hours are over 2+ years). It hasn't seemed to have much affect on my results though and my table has only been tough like 3 or 4 times out of 100 sessions. I honestly dont know what is 'in season' or 'off season' ... for me, its just more players or less... Really not a huge change throughout the year in skill level.

Also, for me Friday and Saturday are good times to play, but not always... and I have found Sunday afternoon to be really good on occasion because for certain rec players, thats the only time they show.
There is a large difference in skill through the year depending when more pros are in town from overseas. The presence of a pro or more serious player taking the seat of a rec is going to have a big impact on game dynamics. While it may not have impacted your experience I am telling you that it impacted mine and I played a much larger sample recently.
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Old 02-20-2019, 11:24 PM   #23197
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Old 02-21-2019, 04:46 AM   #23198
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Fair enough, Quantum. I agree that only a small minority are capable of such winrates.
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Old 02-21-2019, 08:28 AM   #23199
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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There is a large difference in skill through the year depending when more pros are in town from overseas. The presence of a pro or more serious player taking the seat of a rec is going to have a big impact on game dynamics. While it may not have impacted your experience I am telling you that it impacted mine and I played a much larger sample recently.
S. Florida is another place where pros from overseas pass thru in waves, so I know exactly what you mean. Right now we have some Brazilian guys here and a team of 6 Latvians just left. There 3 Czech guys that come for a month or 2 every year...ect.

Without a doubt, you know more about Commerce than I do. When I say $100+/hr is possible playing 5/10, Im talking about any 5/10 game. Ive played enough of it in a few different places around the Country to be 100% sure that's possible.

Ive only been to L.A. for poker once and I played in 4 different rooms. I played enough in those rooms to see that the action in all 4 rooms was glaringly better than where I play. It doesn't even matter how I ran or what my results were. There's no denying that the L.A. games are looser and softer than just about anywhere else in the Country.

Based on my extensive 2/5 experience....knowing what my win rate is...knowing how much softer the Commerce game is....knowing that its 5/5 instead of 2/5....I have no doubt whatsoever that the Commerce 5/5 can be beaten for $70-$75/hr.

So, I dont see how the Commerce 5/10 cant be beaten for $100/hr+.
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Old 02-21-2019, 09:07 AM   #23200
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Congrats samo!

I'm guessing day-in / day-out retirees attempting to play for a modest income make up quite a decent chunk of a lot of tables I play at. Sorta somewhere in-between the "pro" vs "rec" player (whatever those terms mean), and some of them likely do fairly well (more leaning towards the "pro" side than the "rec" side).

Ggogogo,imoG
Thx IRTM and GG.

GG - I believe there is a term for the pro/rec player, but it escapes me. I want to say "procreational".
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