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Old 02-19-2019, 11:25 AM   #23151
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by jelloman View Post
Is there a thread I can read to get my confidence back from this never-ending losing streak ? This is month # 3 and I am really sick of it.



Wondering if I'm also playing poorly because of it. Im actually expecting to see the only hand that beats me at showdown even if it doesn't make sense for V to have that hand.



I don't want to whine, but I think I could use a thread to show how other players deal with this.



Been tracking my results for 5 + years and have only had a couple of losing months in that time. And yes, I know losing streaks can go longer. Just wanna make sure what I'm seeing is actual variance and not operator error.



Stakes are 1-2 NL btw.



Thx !
I'm expert in this *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances *** watcha wanna know *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***
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Old 02-19-2019, 11:43 AM   #23152
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Well, for one thing, did you start playing tighter ? (looser ? ). I noticed that since I'm been card dead for such long periods during this stretch I find myself calling in position with crap like Q-3 suited.

Also, I think I should ask for table changes more often. When you sit there w/o a hand for 1-2 hours and you finally raise to $ 10 with AA, everyone folds. In fact, this has been happening a lot. Even when I'm new to the table my strong hands haven't been getting action.

oops, I said I wouldn't whine but there I go..
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Old 02-19-2019, 11:56 AM   #23153
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by jelloman View Post
Well, for one thing, did you start playing tighter ? (looser ? ). I noticed that since I'm been card dead for such long periods during this stretch I find myself calling in position with crap like Q-3 suited.



Also, I think I should ask for table changes more often. When you sit there w/o a hand for 1-2 hours and you finally raise to $ 10 with AA, everyone folds. In fact, this has been happening a lot. Even when I'm new to the table my strong hands haven't been getting action.



oops, I said I wouldn't whine but there I go..
The mind set of adjusting to the downswing is a mistake. So if you have adjusted your play due to the downswing itself then yes...u are making it worse. the only question is was this single decision in this peticular situation the most optimal. Variance in live poker can be extremely difficult to get the mind to understand.
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Old 02-19-2019, 12:04 PM   #23154
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by jelloman View Post
Is there a thread I can read to get my confidence back from this never-ending losing streak ? This is month # 3 and I am really sick of it.

Wondering if I'm also playing poorly because of it. Im actually expecting to see the only hand that beats me at showdown even if it doesn't make sense for V to have that hand.

I don't want to whine, but I think I could use a thread to show how other players deal with this.

Been tracking my results for 5 + years and have only had a couple of losing months in that time. And yes, I know losing streaks can go longer. Just wanna make sure what I'm seeing is actual variance and not operator error.

Stakes are 1-2 NL btw.

Thx !
Quote:
Originally Posted by jelloman View Post
Well, for one thing, did you start playing tighter ? (looser ? ). I noticed that since I'm been card dead for such long periods during this stretch I find myself calling in position with crap like Q-3 suited.

Also, I think I should ask for table changes more often. When you sit there w/o a hand for 1-2 hours and you finally raise to $ 10 with AA, everyone folds. In fact, this has been happening a lot. Even when I'm new to the table my strong hands haven't been getting action.

oops, I said I wouldn't whine but there I go..
Here is a decent slug of your answer. Entitlement tilt is a real thing as evidenced by your playing sht like q3s. Get back to the basics and play well. Not sure of how much edge u have on the game but what you are doing is what I call the death of 1000 nicks. You are creating less and less of an edge each time you play a piece of sht hand - and are simply another dude at the table trying to play bingo.

when u go to the casino have a pre game ritual where you are simply going to play the best poker you are capable of. When u find yourself wanting to play garbage leave the table immediately and reset.
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Old 02-19-2019, 12:33 PM   #23155
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quantum, it’s not pure fantasy. The games are soft and high winrates are easily obtainable for very strong regs. Most of the “good” regs are simply not very strong but would still have winrates that are about 1/2 to 2/3 the rates of what I posted.

Last edited by typesick; 02-19-2019 at 12:45 PM.
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Old 02-19-2019, 01:06 PM   #23156
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by jelloman View Post
Is there a thread I can read to get my confidence back from this never-ending losing streak ? This is month # 3 and I am really sick of it.

Wondering if I'm also playing poorly because of it. Im actually expecting to see the only hand that beats me at showdown even if it doesn't make sense for V to have that hand.

I don't want to whine, but I think I could use a thread to show how other players deal with this.

Been tracking my results for 5 + years and have only had a couple of losing months in that time. And yes, I know losing streaks can go longer. Just wanna make sure what I'm seeing is actual variance and not operator error.

Stakes are 1-2 NL btw.

Thx !
How many hours do you get in a month?

Because a 100 hour downswing is pretty 'normal' or 'common' for an otherwise winning player. You can go even longer BE or down too.

You definitely sound tilted about this though.

The best thing is to sit down and review your hands and play as honestly as you can. You're probably making mistakes in addition to some run-bad. If you're short on money and the losses are getting you down, take a break for a little while.
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Old 02-19-2019, 02:22 PM   #23157
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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How many hours do you get in a month?

Because a 100 hour downswing is pretty 'normal' or 'common' for an otherwise winning player. You can go even longer BE or down too.

You definitely sound tilted about this though.

The best thing is to sit down and review your hands and play as honestly as you can. You're probably making mistakes in addition to some run-bad. If you're short on money and the losses are getting you down, take a break for a little while.
************************************************** ************

Hours are just above 100 for the 3 month period. I also am aware that I'm not playing my best. I used to pride myself in not getting tilted but I think the length of this is causing issues with my play.( see the Q-3 comment above). Would be interesting to see my VPIP of late, but this live poker.

So, maybe next poker room visit, I just try to make good decisions for the entire session and stop trying to force the action.

I mean, damn, this has to end sometime , RIGHT ?
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Old 02-19-2019, 02:43 PM   #23158
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

.

Last edited by 7weeks2days; 02-19-2019 at 03:02 PM.
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Old 02-19-2019, 02:51 PM   #23159
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by jelloman View Post
************************************************** ************



Hours are just above 100 for the 3 month period. I also am aware that I'm not playing my best. I used to pride myself in not getting tilted but I think the length of this is causing issues with my play.( see the Q-3 comment above). Would be interesting to see my VPIP of late, but this live poker.



So, maybe next poker room visit, I just try to make good decisions for the entire session and stop trying to force the action.



I mean, damn, this has to end sometime , RIGHT ?
I'm not sure that I can effectively convey to you the insignificance of your 100hr sample size.
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Old 02-19-2019, 03:15 PM   #23160
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by jelloman View Post
************************************************** ************

Hours are just above 100 for the 3 month period. I also am aware that I'm not playing my best. I used to pride myself in not getting tilted but I think the length of this is causing issues with my play.( see the Q-3 comment above). Would be interesting to see my VPIP of late, but this live poker.

So, maybe next poker room visit, I just try to make good decisions for the entire session and stop trying to force the action.

I mean, damn, this has to end sometime , RIGHT ?

So that's really insignificant for a sample. Especially with tilt in it. VPIPing like that with trash is terrible.

You should *always* be focused on making good decisions at the table. Forcing something to happen is almost always a bad idea.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorXP View Post
I'm not sure that I can effectively convey to you the insignificance of your 100hr sample size.
I can:

For any 100 hour window sliced out of this 4500 hour $1/2 dataset, results vary wildly from +50/hr to -$35/hr
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Old 02-19-2019, 03:33 PM   #23161
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by jelloman View Post
************************************************** ************

Hours are just above 100 for the 3 month period. I also am aware that I'm not playing my best. I used to pride myself in not getting tilted but I think the length of this is causing issues with my play.( see the Q-3 comment above). Would be interesting to see my VPIP of late, but this live poker.

So, maybe next poker room visit, I just try to make good decisions for the entire session and stop trying to force the action.

I mean, damn, this has to end sometime , RIGHT ?
With that little volume you could reasonably lose for an entire year.
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Old 02-19-2019, 04:38 PM   #23162
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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With that little volume you could reasonably lose for an entire year.
Not sure there'd be anything reasonable about losing over 400 hours of 1/2 unless a player's winrate was quite low.
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Old 02-19-2019, 04:46 PM   #23163
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Not sure there'd be anything reasonable about losing over 400 hours of 1/2 unless a player's winrate was incredibly low.
Based on my own data my win-rate at 1|2 is $20/h and my standard deviation is $200/h. Based on these numbers breaking even over 400 hours would be a -2 sigma event, which corresponds to about a 1/40 chance. Unlucky but not unreasonable and a losing year may be likely over a lifetime of play with this level of volume for a player with a certain play-style and game conditions.

Last edited by browni3141; 02-19-2019 at 05:01 PM. Reason: 1/40, not 1/20
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Old 02-19-2019, 05:06 PM   #23164
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

What’s everyone using to track live results? Used to have poker journal but last I knew it died with the new phone updates, any newer version of that or something similar?
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Old 02-19-2019, 05:55 PM   #23165
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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What’s everyone using to track live results? Used to have poker journal but last I knew it died with the new phone updates, any newer version of that or something similar?
Poker Income seems popular but I didn't like it. I started with Poker Mate in 2014 and still use it although I also use the free version of Poker Bankroll Tracker (2018+) now as well as it is more feature rich (SD, Graphs, Data export, odds calculator, etc). The app developer for Poker Mate said an update was in the works so I'm going to continue to use both for a bit rather than back port 4 years worth of data so I can completely switch to PBT.
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Old 02-19-2019, 05:56 PM   #23166
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Poker Income seems popular but I didn't like it. I started with Poker Mate in 2014 and still use it although I also use the free version of Poker Bankroll Tracker (2018+) now as well as it is more feature rich (SD, Graphs, Data export, odds calculator, etc). The app developer for Poker Mate said an update was in the works so I'm going to continue to use both for a bit rather than back port 4 years worth of data so I can completely switch to PBT.
I used to use poker income but switched to poker agent after poker income customer support was found to be non existent
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Old 02-19-2019, 06:13 PM   #23167
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
Based on my own data my win-rate at 1|2 is $20/h and my standard deviation is $200/h. Based on these numbers breaking even over 400 hours would be a -2 sigma event, which corresponds to about a 1/40 chance. Unlucky but not unreasonable and a losing year may be likely over a lifetime of play with this level of volume for a player with a certain play-style and game conditions.
How many hours have you have tracked with the $20/h win rate?
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Old 02-19-2019, 06:36 PM   #23168
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
Based on my own data my win-rate at 1|2 is $20/h and my standard deviation is $200/h. Based on these numbers breaking even over 400 hours would be a -2 sigma event, which corresponds to about a 1/40 chance. Unlucky but not unreasonable and a losing year may be likely over a lifetime of play with this level of volume for a player with a certain play-style and game conditions.
Appreciate the statistical breakdown, thanks!
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Old 02-19-2019, 10:13 PM   #23169
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by typesick View Post
Something like $175/hr at 5/10 and 100/hr at 5/5. Maybe higher.
This is the highest estimate for potential win rates I have ever seen, in any forum, for any stakes NL. That's fine, I am asking for opinions, but I would like to know how you are coming up with such a number. Unusual claims like this need some kind of evidence backing them.

Are you a reg in LA 5/10 games? Where do you usually play?

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There's maybe a handful of players that actually reach $100/hr at 5/10. From coaches whose stats I, a stranger in the internet trust, the average expectation for an solid grinder is near $75/hr.

Kinda hard to judge a place when you're there as a tourist. If you only play Fri night, Sat night, and Sunday, you might be able to break $100/hr with aggressive table selection. Commerce 5/10 gets overrun with waves of Euros and if you're grinding full time, that means you're playing a lot more games with foreign and local grinders where you're racing to the zero much more than exploiting spewtards. The game's also capped at 150 bigs and there are no straddles so you're not as deep as other 5/10 games that often play 5/10/20. Props to you if you can crush at the rates you said, but from the locals with stats I actually trust, there's maybe 2 people that go above $100/hr in that game.

$75/hr in the 5/5 is ludicrous. The game's capped at $500 and the house takes $7 from every hand that gets to a river, $6 that sees a flop. I guarantee j no one makes $75/hr in that game & the teeny portion of all poker players that might have such a skill set do not browse 2+2 LLSNL.
I genuinely think this is accurate although I am heavily biased here. The games are very soft, but its a mixed bag between rec and regs. I think the regs are 'not good' and the rec players are terrible. The issue is, 5 'not good' regs at your table will slow down your hourly dramatically, if just for the fact that they are folding a lot more. Some days I have zero regs at my table but generally its 3-4. You would think January would have tons of recs (LAPC), but it doesnt really. You just get a few more whales and a lot more European players.

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most people in LA have insane amounts of money? gee everytime i ever walk into any store, or down the street, or on the bus i see nothing but desperately broke and homeless people sleeping outside, asking for money, and living in dirt poverty. at least about 25-40% of the population.
Your post, in which you quoted mine, hinges heavily on correcting something I didn't say. I said people have insane money here, which is indisputable. That's all.
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Old 02-19-2019, 10:59 PM   #23170
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Gravity Well View Post
How many hours have you have tracked with the $20/h win rate?
I just needed a source to pull numbers from. I don't have a huge 1|2 sample. 1222.2 hours at $22.74/h. That doesn't include promotional winnings.
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Old 02-20-2019, 12:09 AM   #23171
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Rainbow, I am basing my numbers off my personal results and the results of some of my best poker friends (although not at the Commerce), who I consider to be some of the top players in the game. I am aware that my estimates are high, but I think most people tend to downplay the expectations of others based on their own person biases. Also, I believe Bart Hanson completed 2 500 hour 5/10 challenges at the Commerce over the last few years and had an hourly of over $140.

Last edited by typesick; 02-20-2019 at 12:35 AM.
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Old 02-20-2019, 01:48 AM   #23172
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Hey, his true expectation could just as easily be higher than lower
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Old 02-20-2019, 01:52 AM   #23173
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Wow gee golly two 500 hour samples
Interesting that you constantly always take issue with sample sizes of strong players. No comments at all and no eye rolls when people post marginally winning hourly rates. Why is that? Why do good winrates from good players bother you so much?
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Old 02-20-2019, 02:08 AM   #23174
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Because Bart would be the first to tell you that his hourly expectation at 5/10 is not $140/hr in any type of long term / 2000 hours per year sample.
Actually, I believe his results over 1,000 hours were around $149/hr. This was while he was also involved in business, managing his company, and studying/ playing other games. I'm not sure he'd expect his hourly to be well below $140 in the 5/10 Commerce games, as you seem to be claiming.
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Old 02-20-2019, 04:29 AM   #23175
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by typesick View Post
Rainbow, I am basing my numbers off my personal results and the results of some of my best poker friends (although not at the Commerce), who I consider to be some of the top players in the game. I am aware that my estimates are high, but I think most people tend to downplay the expectations of others based on their own person biases. Also, I believe Bart Hanson completed 2 500 hour 5/10 challenges at the Commerce over the last few years and had an hourly of over $140.
No he hadn't. You can find them in the clp forums. I think he did one in 2018, but that's not up. From what I see,

2017 = $103/hr over 497 hrs

2016 = $119/hr over 474 hrs

2015 = $136/hr over 454 hrs
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