Your sample size is a blip on the radar. Keep making good decisions.

You've had three 10 buy in down swings in 227 hours? That cant be right can it?

... and they still come out 4bb/hour ahead!

last 600 hours but I lost my data for the previous 400

I would like to know what LA regs like myself think is attainable for 5/10. I have about 270 hours at 5/10 at Commerce and WR is $97.4. I am assuming LA is softer than other parts of the country due to the insane money people have here, but I dont know for sure.

My general feel is that $100/hr is achievable by only the absolute best at this level. It feels like you have to be on your A game, paying attention, and not make too many mistakes (I always strive for that but we're all human).

Anyone have a decent sample at Commerce 5/10?

I have zero doubt that $100-$135/hr and maybe more is possible at Commerce 5/10. I have nowhere near enough of a sample there to know what my actual win rate would be but I saw enough when I played there to know how much softer it is than other 5/10 games Ive played in.

Also, I think $75/hr is sustainable long term at Commerce 5/5.

I believe the sustainable hourlies are much lower than you guys tend to think long term.
I would be confident in saying that there isn't one reg with long term hourlies at either level at either game nowadays. The fact you are so confident is scary because you will most likely find the reality very frustrating if you choose to find out the hard way.

^^^^^ You guys run super hot if you believe that. But, I mean I take money from people all the time that think like that and disappear in a year or two.

Something like $175/hr at 5/10 and 100/hr at 5/5. Maybe higher.

There's maybe a handful of players that actually reach $100/hr at 5/10. From coaches whose stats I, a stranger in the internet trust, the average expectation for an solid grinder is near $75/hr.

Kinda hard to judge a place when you're there as a tourist. If you only play Fri night, Sat night, and Sunday, you might be able to break $100/hr with aggressive table selection. Commerce 5/10 gets overrun with waves of Euros and if you're grinding full time, that means you're playing a lot more games with foreign and local grinders where you're racing to the zero much more than exploiting spewtards. The game's also capped at 150 bigs and there are no straddles so you're not as deep as other 5/10 games that often play 5/10/20. Props to you if you can crush at the rates you said, but from the locals with stats I actually trust, there's maybe 2 people that go above $100/hr in that game.

$75/hr in the 5/5 is ludicrous. The game's capped at $500 and the house takes $7 from every hand that gets to a river, $6 that sees a flop. I guarantee you no one makes $75/hr in that game & the teeny portion of all poker players that might have such a skill set do not browse 2+2 LLSNL.


That's mere fantasy.

This guy puts in volume.

most people in LA have insane amounts of money? gee everytime i ever walk into any store, or down the street, or on the bus i see nothing but desperately broke and homeless people sleeping outside, asking for money, and living in dirt poverty. at least about 25-40% of the population.

Ill agree that its hard to judge a place when you only played there 5-6 days as a tourist like I did. However, I have over 4000 live hours so I have plenty of experience to work off of. Almost all of my hours in L.A. were weekday daytime hours and my mouth was hanging open half the time I was playing because the overall play was so bad. The action there was insane compared to what I'm used to. Its like the place is in a time warp and its still 2004. I can only imagine what evenings and weekend are like.

I know what my overall win rate is and I know how much action and how much softer Commerce (and all 4 L.A. rooms that I played) were compared to my main rooms and all other rooms Ive played. That brings me to the estimates I gave of obtainable win rates. Obviously I don't know for sure but I'm confidant those numbers are possible.

Of course the cost of living in L.A. is sky high so if you factor that in, the cost of living adjusted win rates in L.A. could easily be lower than plenty of other places.

Is there a thread I can read to get my confidence back from this never-ending losing streak ? This is month # 3 and I am really sick of it.

Wondering if I'm also playing poorly because of it. Im actually expecting to see the only hand that beats me at showdown even if it doesn't make sense for V to have that hand.

I don't want to whine, but I think I could use a thread to show how other players deal with this.

Been tracking my results for 5 + years and have only had a couple of losing months in that time. And yes, I know losing streaks can go longer. Just wanna make sure what I'm seeing is actual variance and not operator error.

Stakes are 1-2 NL btw.

Thx !

I'm expert in this watcha wanna know

Well, for one thing, did you start playing tighter ? (looser ? ). I noticed that since I'm been card dead for such long periods during this stretch I find myself calling in position with crap like Q-3 suited.

Also, I think I should ask for table changes more often. When you sit there w/o a hand for 1-2 hours and you finally raise to $ 10 with AA, everyone folds. In fact, this has been happening a lot. Even when I'm new to the table my strong hands haven't been getting action.

oops, I said I wouldn't whine but there I go..

The mind set of adjusting to the downswing is a mistake. So if you have adjusted your play due to the downswing itself then yes...u are making it worse. the only question is was this single decision in this peticular situation the most optimal. Variance in live poker can be extremely difficult to get the mind to understand.

Here is a decent slug of your answer. Entitlement tilt is a real thing as evidenced by your playing sht like q3s. Get back to the basics and play well. Not sure of how much edge u have on the game but what you are doing is what I call the death of 1000 nicks. You are creating less and less of an edge each time you play a piece of sht hand - and are simply another dude at the table trying to play bingo.

when u go to the casino have a pre game ritual where you are simply going to play the best poker you are capable of. When u find yourself wanting to play garbage leave the table immediately and reset.

Quantum, it’s not pure fantasy. The games are soft and high winrates are easily obtainable for very strong regs. Most of the “good” regs are simply not very strong but would still have winrates that are about 1/2 to 2/3 the rates of what I posted.

How many hours do you get in a month?

Because a 100 hour downswing is pretty 'normal' or 'common' for an otherwise winning player. You can go even longer BE or down too.

You definitely sound tilted about this though.

The best thing is to sit down and review your hands and play as honestly as you can. You're probably making mistakes in addition to some run-bad. If you're short on money and the losses are getting you down, take a break for a little while.

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Hours are just above 100 for the 3 month period. I also am aware that I'm not playing my best. I used to pride myself in not getting tilted but I think the length of this is causing issues with my play.( see the Q-3 comment above). Would be interesting to see my VPIP of late, but this live poker.

So, maybe next poker room visit, I just try to make good decisions for the entire session and stop trying to force the action.

I mean, damn, this has to end sometime , RIGHT ?

.

I'm not sure that I can effectively convey to you the insignificance of your 100hr sample size.

So that's really insignificant for a sample. Especially with tilt in it. VPIPing like that with trash is terrible.

You should *always* be focused on making good decisions at the table. Forcing something to happen is almost always a bad idea.

I can:

For any 100 hour window sliced out of this 4500 hour $1/2 dataset, results vary wildly from +50/hr to -$35/hr

With that little volume you could reasonably lose for an entire year.

Not sure there'd be anything reasonable about losing over 400 hours of 1/2 unless a player's winrate was quite low.