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Old 08-09-2018, 11:09 PM   #22201
MikeStarr
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by megamen70 View Post
You donít think you can have some indication that you are a winning player before 1000 hours played? Like I have a very small sample size but I can tell from the games just the fact that I donít limp, open reasonable ranges and actually 3bet a range wider than KK+ I would bet money Iím already at least a slightly winning player.

Op I say go for it and take some shots if 10,000 is not a big deal but be willing to lose it
Limping is not a disease and is the correct play in plenty of situations.
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Old 08-09-2018, 11:22 PM   #22202
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by whatnow88 View Post
It's not an indicator for beating live but it has fixed tons of my leaks. All of which I wouldn't have know about without a tracking software.

500 hours seems decent
i feel like this could only work if play money played the same as real money?
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Old 08-09-2018, 11:42 PM   #22203
megamen70
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Limping is not a disease and is the correct play in plenty of situations.
Itís actually tilting the amount of players on this forum like gg advocating limping in all kinds of situations. Limping totally is a disease and you are just becoming a fish yourself when you limp behind. Especially the players on this forum who are learning to play and then they hear all this garbage advice to overlimp hands like ajo.

I firmly believe you will get so much better at poker by never limping. Like sure once you are a crusher at the game you can develop some overlimp strategies on co and button. Much better to err on the side of raising when you could have limped than limping when you should have raised
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Old 08-09-2018, 11:47 PM   #22204
setintostraight
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by megamen70 View Post
You don’t think you can have some indication that you are a winning player before 1000 hours played? Like I have a very small sample size but I can tell from the games just the fact that I don’t limp, open reasonable ranges and actually 3bet a range wider than KK+ I would bet money I’m already at least a slightly winning player.

Op I say go for it and take some shots if 10,000 is not a big deal but be willing to lose it
I can say with pretty high confidence that at low stakes, most people can become slightly winning players just by being giant nits and nut-peddling. Even with small sample sizes of <200 hrs

And that's exactly what people do on weekdays after midnight when there's no fish.
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Old 08-10-2018, 02:24 AM   #22205
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by whatnow88 View Post
What's a decent amount of hours to know your probably a winning player?

How can if figure this out faster?
Here you go: http://www.pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Variance is pretty wild. There is a 4% chance even a losing player would match the 200 hour heater I’ve been on.
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Old 08-10-2018, 02:52 AM   #22206
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by megamen70 View Post
Itís actually tilting the amount of players on this forum like gg advocating limping in all kinds of situations. Limping totally is a disease and you are just becoming a fish yourself when you limp behind. Especially the players on this forum who are learning to play and then they hear all this garbage advice to overlimp hands like ajo.

I firmly believe you will get so much better at poker by never limping. Like sure once you are a crusher at the game you can develop some overlimp strategies on co and button. Much better to err on the side of raising when you could have limped than limping when you should have raised
Iíll just leave this here:https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...06/?highlight=
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Old 08-10-2018, 08:29 AM   #22207
MikeStarr
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by megamen70 View Post
Itís actually tilting the amount of players on this forum like gg advocating limping in all kinds of situations. Limping totally is a disease and you are just becoming a fish yourself when you limp behind. Especially the players on this forum who are learning to play and then they hear all this garbage advice to overlimp hands like ajo.

I firmly believe you will get so much better at poker by never limping. Like sure once you are a crusher at the game you can develop some overlimp strategies on co and button. Much better to err on the side of raising when you could have limped than limping when you should have raised
Yes, overlimping AJ is bad, but there are plenty of hands that overlimping in LP is the best play. Limping too much and playing too passively is fishy, but being so stubborn and so close minded to limping certain hands that can be very profitable is also a leak.

4 people limp and you have 55 on the button...what are you doing? Folding is stupid and raising is pretty bad also. Limping is 100% the correct play here.
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Old 08-10-2018, 11:34 AM   #22208
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by stackz07 View Post
i feel like this could only work if play money played the same as real money?
it doesn't play the same as real money but u can play many hands and learn from your own mistakes.

playing 6 tables you can find your leaks much faster. you can also see where the money comes from and where you are bad.

ie. i'm bad from the small blind and BB so i fold way more
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Old 08-10-2018, 11:48 AM   #22209
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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it doesn't play the same as real money but u can play many hands and learn from your own mistakes.

playing 6 tables you can find your leaks much faster. you can also see where the money comes from and where you are bad.

ie. i'm bad from the small blind and BB so i fold way more
Don't move up in stakes. If you think you have leaks in certain positions so you just fold there that is the leak.

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Old 08-10-2018, 11:55 AM   #22210
whatnow88
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by stackz07 View Post
Don't move up in stakes. If you think you have leaks in certain positions so you just fold there that is the leak.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
I don't fold %100 of the time I just play my UTG range from sb and bb. I do a lot more of 3! or fold

this is how i greatly lowered the amount I was losing from the SB and BB.
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Old 08-10-2018, 03:37 PM   #22211
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
Haha but I agree with you like I donít think that play was good. I think I was bored and like omg I have the button take a flop in position. I think eliminating plays like this would make me a better player. That supports my argument even more if I just fold there then we avoid a bad spot. I donít see how that refutes my argument that generally limping is bad
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Old 08-10-2018, 04:58 PM   #22212
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
Here you go: http://www.pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Variance is pretty wild. There is a 4% chance even a losing player would match the 200 hour heater Iíve been on.

That calculator measures BB/100 not BB/hr. So, you need to divide your observed and expected winrate by 3.3. Also, your deviation per hour doesn't translate linearly to deviation per 100 and that's one of the things that stamps me about this calculator.

If someone knows the formula for the conversion, I am all ears.
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Old 08-10-2018, 06:40 PM   #22213
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Correction: Multiply winrate, not divide.
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Old 08-11-2018, 01:25 AM   #22214
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by megamen70 View Post
Haha but I agree with you like I donít think that play was good. I think I was bored and like omg I have the button take a flop in position. I think eliminating plays like this would make me a better player. That supports my argument even more if I just fold there then we avoid a bad spot. I donít see how that refutes my argument that generally limping is bad
I wasnít saying your play was good or not, I just thought the never limp thing was funny given that thread. I do disagree with your position but this isnít the thread to debate it.
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Old 08-14-2018, 01:26 PM   #22215
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by megamen70 View Post
It’s actually tilting the amount of players on this forum like gg advocating limping in all kinds of situations. Limping totally is a disease and you are just becoming a fish yourself when you limp behind. Especially the players on this forum who are learning to play and then they hear all this garbage advice to overlimp hands like ajo.

I firmly believe you will get so much better at poker by never limping. Like sure once you are a crusher at the game you can develop some overlimp strategies on co and button. Much better to err on the side of raising when you could have limped than limping when you should have raised
I'm pretty sure I'd do perfectly fine if I never raised a hand preflop < CO.

There's lots of different styles that can win.

Git'skindatowardswhereI'mmoving,tbhG
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Old 08-14-2018, 08:14 PM   #22216
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm pretty sure I'd do perfectly fine if I never raised a hand preflop < CO.

There's lots of different styles that can win.

Git'skindatowardswhereI'mmoving,tbhG
Totally agree. I've started limping a lot of my EP raising range as well (10s+ AK), particularly at active tables. This allows for profitable squeezes for value. At passive/nitty tables, I am much more likely to raise as I will be heads up most of the time.

If I limp, I will always limp/rr if someone raises down the line. If it happens to limp preflop and it's multiway, I play cautiously unless I flop a monster (set or 2p+).

I raise my entire CO and BTN range when folded to. If multiple callers before me, my range tightens up significantly to AQ+, JJ+.
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Old 08-15-2018, 05:20 AM   #22217
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Totally agree. I've started limping a lot of my EP raising range as well (10s+ AK), particularly at active tables. This allows for profitable squeezes for value. At passive/nitty tables, I am much more likely to raise as I will be heads up most of the time.

If I limp, I will always limp/rr if someone raises down the line. If it happens to limp preflop and it's multiway, I play cautiously unless I flop a monster (set or 2p+).

I raise my entire CO and BTN range when folded to. If multiple callers before me, my range tightens up significantly to AQ+, JJ+.
I can't see any way to exploit that.

I do see some merit though in a limp only in EP strategy at a table where there will be a raise preflop most of the time.

Also you're telling me if three people limp in you're gonna limp behind on the button with TT and AJ?
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Old 08-15-2018, 07:46 AM   #22218
Garick
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

This is the winrates thread, not the "how to play LLSNL in general" thread.

Please stop derailing.
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Old 08-15-2018, 02:16 PM   #22219
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

How about a bankroll question? Anyone have recommendations for a good fire safe? I hate going back and forth to the bank/ATM to play poker, so I've got a couple $k pile of cash on hand all the time to cover BI's for a while. It would be nice to have a place to put that (and some other paperwork stuff) that *might* survive a fire in a condo with a sprinkler system. Bonus if it's something that can be somewhat 'secure' in a burglary.

Finances? Anyone know if it makes a difference how I allocate assets between a Roth IRA and a 403b/401a account? Since they're both tax advantaged I don't think it matters.
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Old 08-15-2018, 02:30 PM   #22220
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Roth uses post tax dollars. You can pull out contributions, but not gains, at any time with no penalty. Also, being an IRA, you have all investment options available to you.

A 403b is pre tax dollars. Pre vs post only matters if you have real strong takes on your current vs future tax bracket and/or current vs future tax policy. Otherwise, diversify between the two. Being an employer plan, rather than an IRA, your investment choices may be constrained. You may have a poor provider who only provides high expense ratio funds.

All else equal, most would recommend contributing to 403b up to any company match and invest remaining in the Roth IRA. If you still have more after maxing the IRA, go back to the 403b.
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Old 08-15-2018, 02:46 PM   #22221
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Yea, I know all of that. Likely maxing both regardless. Employer plan contributes 10% salary to my 5%, which is crazy good. Also offers a full slate of options through what's basically a regular brokerage account.

The issue is more of where to put different classes of assets between the two. Stocks vs Bonds vs something that generates a lot of dividends. Can't tell if the Roth/Traditional or IRA/40x matters for those kinds of things. Can get effectively equivalent funds in either

PLO is covering pretty much all of my incidental expenses and food recently, so it's time to crank up the investing.
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Old 08-15-2018, 03:15 PM   #22222
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

The first consideration is age/when one will begin withdrawing. As a general rule, a longer investment horizon, the higher the equity allocation should be. One obviously needs to consider their individual risk tolerance.

Most dividends are taxed at long-term capital gain rates: 0%-20% depending on taxable income level.

Interest from bonds and banks are taxed at taxable income rates, generally higher than long-term cap gains rates.
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Old 08-15-2018, 04:23 PM   #22223
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Yea, I know all of that. Likely maxing both regardless. Employer plan contributes 10% salary to my 5%, which is crazy good. Also offers a full slate of options through what's basically a regular brokerage account.

The issue is more of where to put different classes of assets between the two. Stocks vs Bonds vs something that generates a lot of dividends. Can't tell if the Roth/Traditional or IRA/40x matters for those kinds of things. Can get effectively equivalent funds in either

PLO is covering pretty much all of my incidental expenses and food recently, so it's time to crank up the investing.
In general, the answer is no. It does not matter whether your stocks are in one and your bonds are in another.

Since you can get equivalent investments in each, the only consideration becomes if you want to use the Roth as a backup emergency fund. If so, you can park your bonds and other less risky holdings there. Otherwise, it doesn't matter.
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Old 08-15-2018, 04:46 PM   #22224
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Thinking about when to move to 2/5.

Iím a rec player who thinks about the game (a little), reads books and listens to strategy podcasts, but doesnít ďstudyĒ in any real sense of the term. I am gainfully employed outside of poker and have no delusions of going pro. (I might have delusions about augmenting my income with poker in retirement.) But Iím competitive and like to win.

Reasons to move up:

20k roll (no life expenses come out of my roll)
Beating 1/2
Boston-area casino will open in a year and games should be good for a while, get my feet wet at 2/5 now

Reasons not to move up:
Much (60%?) of the roll won in super soft private NLHE games that donít run anymore, and a soft dealers choice limit home game
Beating 1/2 ďcasinoĒ (& NH charity room) games for (cringe) just over 3BB/hr (1150 hrs), this probably sounds like torture to a lot of you but i enjoy myself
2/5 is the biggest game in the NH rooms currently available to me, so presumably where all the best players are
Losing bums me out and I will probably lose for a while, at least

what say ye all?
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Old 08-15-2018, 05:24 PM   #22225
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

hey hotrod,

Beating 1/2 is a great start. 3bb/hr aint much BUT you are doing better than 95% of the players out there. I personally think you should start focusing up on improving your game right now with the plan of being ready to take pokes at 2/5 within the next 6 months so you will be fully prepped to destroy the boston 2/5 games when the casino opens - cuz its gunna be a bonanza

You have been a member here since 04 yet only have a handful of posts. I would highly advise posting up 1/2 hands that you are having issues with. Also start participating in other peoples HH's. There are some fantastic strat threads in the best of llsnl that you should definitely read and try applying to your game.

The goal of this is to bring you up from a marginal winner into someone beating the game for a healthy clip. You definitely have a bunch of leaks (no offense just stating what I believe to be fact). While you are still at 1/2 you can be plugging these and working on your overall game AND continuing to boost yer roll. When you are beating 1/2 for a healthy clip the transition to 2/5 will be smooth sailing imo
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