Well it took 21,810 posts, but I finally learned something from this thread.

Currently on worst 100 hr (113.75 hrs) streak. Not nearly as ugly as other posts, still very sucky to go through. (4.8 bbs/hr). I limit session loss to 2 BIs.

Long-term win rate is >60%, but only ~35% during this run. Mostly unlucky, card dead, and ofc some non-optimal play. Clearly takes the fun out of playing. Trying to play more at night and weekends now.

Each time I thought about booking a win, table conditions were too good to exit early, kept hoping for a "triple up". Hasn't worked out

You must be a sicko crusher if a 5bb stretch is horrible. Also good discipline refusing to book a win when table conditions were good.

Haha, thx. Disciplined grinder is more appropriate,<6bbs/hr. The floor of a 2 BI loss helps.

I can get T4/92/etc for 4 hours, then look down at AQo, raise/fold to a 3b from the right opponent.

Leaving job and moving to oklahoma to grind 1-2 1/3 and 2/5 at winstar and eventually some texas games. Been winning at 1/3 for 22/hr over 2k hours. 2/5 winrate is astronomical over less then 500 hour sample but 1k cap games (winstar is 500). Remember poker will be my only income and rent in oklahoma is ridic low plus ill be living frugally until im rolled to LA. I will also be playing 50-80 hrs a week. My question is how long should i stay at my job saving while playing poker on side before moving? do not ask what my job is or try to deter me

Until you have enough money saved for a proper poker bankroll and also 4-6 months life expenses. I'm wondering why you dont already have a good amount saved if you have a job and have been beating the games for 2500ish hours on the side. Maybe you do but if you do, why wait at all?

FWIW...I lived in Dallas most of my life and have played many times at Winstar and, IMO, the games are some of the softest in the Country

Have a decent roll saved up. just wanted to see what others have to say. planning on heading there october. little worried about the nightlife being single and love spanish women.

Well you have a problem there, Sir. You dont get cheap cost of living in the middle of nowhere and also get active nightlife.

There's plenty of Mexican woman around those parts though.

i know. may be good to focus on cards for a bit

Basically why I chose not to move to Thackerville. Not that I've been meeting lots of ladies in Tampa.

Can confirm 1/2 games stupid soft but never played 2/5 there.

I would encourage you have a separate life roll and bankroll. That's what I did when I started playing full time a year ago and it's allowed me to just massively build my bankroll. I started with 10k bankroll and will be rolled for 5/T soon, though I'll probably wait a while more before jumping into those waters.

4-6 months life expenses? More like 1 year if you ask me.

Agreed...if I had saved only 4 to 6 months life expenses I would have busted in December. Maybe if you already know you're a crusher that would be sufficient but it's definitely risky.

Probably not a unique question. I play 1/3, some 2/5 and MTTs, all live. I have a positive win rate in all of them and do best in the MTTs. There's one in particular that I crush. About a $30% win rate (winning the tournament, not total cash, not a huge sample size, but a couple of dozen over the last two years. I'm sure it'll level out.).

Question: I have an appropriate bankroll for my cash play (I won't switch to 2/5 predominately until I have 20+ buy ins) but no clue what that should be for tournaments.

I play in the WSOP ($1500 events) as my "super bowl" but that's just for fun (broke even this year). I obviously know that the bankroll for a tournament like that isn't in line with my BR, but I play in mostly 100-200$ tournies. I treat them like cash, requiring 20 buy ins. Is that appropriate?

(All of this is bank roll on hand as I spend part of my bankroll for vacations, etc).

I'm 100% rec and don't play too often (maybe once a week between tournies and cash).

If you have income outside poker, play whatever you can afford to lose.

He said hes got 2000 hrs of 1/2 at $22/hr and 500 hours of 2/5 at in insanely high rate that he knows is unsustainable. That's enough hours to know that he's a winner and not just running good. He shouldn't be going on any 4-6+ month downswings deep enough that they get anywhere near busting his roll if he has a proper poker bankroll outside of his life expenses.

If you have 4-6 months of life expenses saved up, and you break even for 4 months, yours still in fine shape. Your bills are all still paid and your entire poker roll is intact. And he should never be breaking even for 4 months (500-600 hours) if hes winning like he says he is.

This is my stats.

I still need to break it down as i play quite a mix of stakes.
About 30% .25/50c Mixed games, 60% 1-2 NLHE, 5% 1-2 PLO, 5% 2-5 PLO

2017 146 Hours 6611 profit 45.28 hourly
2018 236 Hours 7051 profit 29.88 hourly

That's a problem though. Many people think they're crushers but they really aren't. I thought I was a 1/3 crusher a month ago after having logged 850 ish hours since May 2017 at that point in time. Then June happened. Maybe I just ran extremely bad. Certainly was card dead most sessions I played. But I don't think I'm close to being a 10bb crusher anymore. Definitely above 5bb, but not a crusher.

How does having only 4-6 months life expenses have anything to do with busting an adequate poker roll? Maybe we are talking about 2 different things.

I'm talking about having 4-6 months of life expenses on top of and set aside from a poker bank roll of maybe 30 buy ins.

A pro who has a track record of winning should never bust a 30 buy in bankroll. There's really not much chance of losing more than 15 buy ins unless you play some crazy maniacal style. I wouldnt call LongBall a crusher since he said his 2000 hour win rate at 1/3 is $22/hr (or a bit over 7BBs) but its a pretty decent win rate over a pretty decent sample.

If he has 4-6 months living expenses saved and can pay all of his bills for that long without taking anything out of his poker bankroll during a long bad stretch, how can he go broke? Even if he breaks even for 6 months (or 800ish hours) all his bills are paid and he still has 30 buy ins in his poker roll. And I will submit that if he breaks even over 800 hours, something is definitely wrong with his game and he was never ready to go pro in the first place.

I know a solid 2/5 pro who had nearly a 10k downswing at a 500 max game. I know a solid 5/10 pro who has been winning at 5/10 for years and went on a 30k downswing. Both play TAG and mostly don't run crazy big bluffs. I really think it depends on the stakes. 1/3 maybe, but 2/5 and above I wouldn't be so sure. You have a good winning record Mike. You've never had a 15 buy in downswing or several hundred hours of breaking even over the thousands of hours at 2/5 you have?

From reading his hand histories, Mike plays a pretty low variance style. For example, folding AK to 3bets and not choosing to 3bet AK. This allows him to avoid spots where he is stuck with A high barreling off his stack.

He may have changed his style since then I'm not sure. Its probably read dependent since he plays with OMC'S during the day time.

His low variance approach and nitty games make it less likely that he would suffer a major downswing

sounds like a solid winning long term way to play
yet so many let the Degen side of them show
OH I GOT +0.00012% EV I'm shoving

I do fold AK to 3 bets a fair amount depending on the player but I 3 bet AK all the time. Yesterday I 3 bet AQ twice and K9s once.

I probably do fold the best hand more than other good players which also means I fold second best hands more often then other good players. This leads to less variance. I prefer to play big pots when I am the aggressor. I value raise with lots of hands that I would easily fold to a raise myself.

I would think my variance is lower due to nitty games although when I play at the Kennel Club, which has serious action any time of day, my win rate is substantially higher and my variance is only 9% higher.

In about 4000 hours, Ive had two 200-230 hour break even stretches and my max downswing is about 9 buy ins.

Im not saying that great players cant have bigger downswings, but I do think they can be mostly be avoided. There's no shame in making adjustments to your game when everything is going against you, and lower variance doesn't mean lower win rate. You dont have to give up EV to lower variance. You can just avoid most of the neutral EV spots and slow down with the meta game wars with other regs.

Here's the thing...even with the crazy $10,000 downswing you mentioned that your 2/5 pro friend went thru, that's still "only" 20 buy ins. That should be a once in a lifetime downswing and if he had 30 buy ins and 4-6 months life expenses he is still fine.

Because stuff happens and while a pro may not bust over 4 months, if he has a break even or slightly winning stretch that is problematic enough, because when the life roll is gone we are now pulling from our bankroll for rent, food, utilities, etc. Not to mention unexpected costs that can be potentially catastrophic, such as being in a car accident and having no transportation, or needing to be hospitalized. A 4 month life roll, particularly somewhere with low cost of living like Thackerville, can be wiped out by any number of emergencies.

Personally I started with 10k bankroll and a years living expenses. I got my bankroll up to 20k then moved up in stakes too soon and went on a downswing in December right after a month of being sick and several days spent in the hospital. Back to 10k. Meanwhile if I had saved only 4 months expenses I would be 2 months in debt at that point for rent etc., plus hospital bills, and having no steady stream of income the only place to take that would be my bankroll. And that would have busted me, even though I was break even over this period.

Poker is not a steady stream of income so great care should be taken in planning financially to account for extended periods where you have potentially large expenses and possibly very limited or even zero or negative income.

An additional benefit of a bigger life roll is we can put all winnings back into the bankroll, which helps us move up stakes faster as well as decrease risk of ruin.

I dont know how that math works. How bad was the downswing? You went from $20K to $10K including or not including the hospital bill?

How would you be 2 months in debt for rent if you had 4-6 months life expenses saved up? If you have that money saved you pay the bills no matter what happens with poker. If you have a downswing you still pay your bills. I dont see how 4 months or 12 months saved affects that at all.

If your downswing AND hospital bill was a total of $10K out of your roll, so what? It sucks big time but its not devastating. Move back down to 1/2 for a while. Your bills are still paid out of your life roll and your poker roll is still fine as well. (Not to mention I wouldn't pay a large hospital bill in one shot. They will take payments over a very long time frame. Also, what about insurance?)

Clearly the more money saved the better. I'm just saying 4-6 months in life expenses and 30 buy ins for a long term winner should be fine. If you're trying to determine if you "could" make it as a pro, maybe not. Especially for a 1/2 player with a track record that's not all that long though. If you expect to beat 2/5 for 8BB+ you should be massacring 1/2 for 12-15BB+