Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-13-2018, 12:07 AM   #20626
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,156
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I like to sit to sit in seat 8, because I can see all the players + I can keep an eye on the dealer & make sure he doesn't over rake, especially when a reduced rake is in effect. I don't care about anything else..........hell, even Squid Face can sit on my left..........every 6th session.........
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-13-2018, 01:05 AM   #20627
gangip
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 3,020
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

In 5 years I don't think I've ever changed seats for strategy purposes.

I do, however, change seats very regularly to get away from smelly people or people who want to talk about cryptocurrency.
gangip is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-13-2018, 01:07 AM   #20628
johnnyBuz
Pooh-Bah
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 5,312
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Crypto is changing the world bro
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-13-2018, 10:22 AM   #20629
NeA
grinder
 
NeA's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 582
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

If your need to seat switch outweighs the shame associated with it you probably need to work on your game.
NeA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-13-2018, 11:18 AM   #20630
Garick
Oberbiergenie▀er
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 17,743
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Maybe I wasn't clear above. Seat changing discussion in this thread is over. Future posts on the topic will be at least deleted and may bring an infraction.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2018, 09:14 PM   #20631
LordRiverRat
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,231
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

lol now the thread is quiet for four days
LordRiverRat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2018, 09:41 PM   #20632
meale
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
meale's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 7,917
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

We just wanna talk about seattt changgginggg maannnnn
meale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2018, 11:11 PM   #20633
soxfan43
journeyman
 
soxfan43's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 209
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
We just wanna talk about seattt changgginggg maannnnn
Nice knowing ya...
soxfan43 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2018, 03:18 PM   #20634
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,736
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Just dug out of my record-tying downswing at 1/3 NL, here's some giraffes for laffs.

Kinda remarkable how similar both of them were.

Both downswings were for exactly $2866.

First one started at the 1774 hour mark. The second one started almost exactly the same time later, at the 3565 hour mark.

Both bottomed out on fun little 3-7 session stretches, the first over 79 hours, the second over 76 hours.

From going into to finally getting back to even, the first one 24 sessions over 194 hours, the second one 29 sessions over 200 hours.

First one:



Second one:




Or, how I made $1,344 over 394 hours without even really trying.

Genquirewithinregardingmycoachingrates,ldoG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2018, 04:50 PM   #20635
Joey913
adept
 
Joey913's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Pre-flop
Posts: 1,127
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I apologize in advance as I don't frequent this thread much at all and my question is probably answered many times within, but here goes:

I've been playing 1/2 for about 7 years and am experiencing my worst downswing by a longshot. I truly believe I am actually playing the best poker of my life but want to do a sanity check to see if my results could just be negative variance or if the evidence would say I'm mostly likely not playing well.

Last July I had brief period where I didn't have to work and played 55 hours over 2 weeks, winning $2400. Since then I have played 80 hours and am down $1800. I'm assuming the 80 hours is close to statistically meaningless? Is this right?
Joey913 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2018, 05:09 PM   #20636
Garick
Oberbiergenie▀er
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 17,743
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Yup.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2018, 05:23 PM   #20637
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,638
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post
Last July I had brief period where I didn't have to work and played 55 hours over 2 weeks, winning $2400. Since then I have played 80 hours and am down $1800. I'm assuming the 80 hours is close to statistically meaningless? Is this right?
80 hours is nothing:



If you dig back through the thread I explain this figure a bit more, but it basically looks at every session I've recorded, pulls the 100 previous hours, and calculates the winrate based on that sample.

You're running at about -$22.5/hr over your downswing. A little on the low side of the distributions I have there for $1/2NL, but not horribly out of range.


God help you if you start playing PLO. I'm down about $1600 this month in about 80 hours of play this year. Had at least 3 big multiway hands that would have flipped the month to almost break even on their own if they'd either hit the wrap or held up against a wrap.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2018, 05:26 PM   #20638
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
 
Avaritia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 10,712
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

If you turn that sideways it is a christmas tree with red lights.
Avaritia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2018, 06:33 PM   #20639
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,736
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post
I apologize in advance as I don't frequent this thread much at all and my question is probably answered many times within, but here goes:

I've been playing 1/2 for about 7 years and am experiencing my worst downswing by a longshot. I truly believe I am actually playing the best poker of my life but want to do a sanity check to see if my results could just be negative variance or if the evidence would say I'm mostly likely not playing well.

Last July I had brief period where I didn't have to work and played 55 hours over 2 weeks, winning $2400. Since then I have played 80 hours and am down $1800. I'm assuming the 80 hours is close to statistically meaningless? Is this right?
It is important to keep in mind that 55 and 80 hour samples are both lol meaningless sample sizes.

Having said that...

You've just went on a 900bb downswing in 1/2 NL. As you can see from my giraffes for laffs above, it's pretty easy to plummet within a short amount of hours. Those giraffes above show my two instances of 955bb downswings and they both happened in less than 80 hours. However, those are the only two downswings I've had above 800bbs in 3766 hours of playing 1/3 NL (where I've posted a 7 bb/hr winrate overall). Game conditions (i.e. stack sizes, aggroness of game, etc.) as well as your style (LAG vs TAG, etc.) will have a lot to do with how often you should expect this to happen, but it also depends on your overall winrate as well as the amount of hours you've put in. If you've played a decent amount of hours over 7 years at an ok winrate, you're probably simply very lucky it took you so long to encounter a 900bb downswing.

Good luck digging out. Just play your game that has always been working for you and you will, eventually.

GgoodluckG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2018, 05:54 PM   #20640
BlueSpade84
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 92
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

All right, here is my latest update. Finally I hit a bit of a downswing after a crazy hot December.

Total Stats: (since starting playing again in Sept.)

All at $1/3 NL $300 Max buy-in.

Hours: 157
Won/Lost: $9436
$/Hr: $60.10
BB/HR: ~20
Std Dev: $283/hr

After running mega hot in December with over $100/hr over 55hrs or so and picking up $6k, I hit a $1700 downswing in January. I definitely experienced some negative variance, but also was pretty aware that I was still making plenty of mistakes which no doubt exaggerate any downswing.

Downswing lasted 5 sessions and about 560bb. Last session though I picked up another 230bbs, so hopefully downswing is over, though I still have a little hole to dig my way out of before I reach a new all-time high.

I was telling myself that I would start taking shots at $2/5 when I hit $10k, but I am re-tasking that to after 250hrs of $1/3. So probably two more months before I take some shots. I am wanting to be very conservative with my roll, as it will not be easily replaced. (Well, the wife would strongly resist it's replacement).
BlueSpade84 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2018, 06:19 PM   #20641
Joey913
adept
 
Joey913's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Pre-flop
Posts: 1,127
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
It is important to keep in mind that 55 and 80 hour samples are both lol meaningless sample sizes.

Having said that...

You've just went on a 900bb downswing in 1/2 NL. As you can see from my giraffes for laffs above, it's pretty easy to plummet within a short amount of hours. Those giraffes above show my two instances of 955bb downswings and they both happened in less than 80 hours. However, those are the only two downswings I've had above 800bbs in 3766 hours of playing 1/3 NL (where I've posted a 7 bb/hr winrate overall). Game conditions (i.e. stack sizes, aggroness of game, etc.) as well as your style (LAG vs TAG, etc.) will have a lot to do with how often you should expect this to happen, but it also depends on your overall winrate as well as the amount of hours you've put in. If you've played a decent amount of hours over 7 years at an ok winrate, you're probably simply very lucky it took you so long to encounter a 900bb downswing.

Good luck digging out. Just play your game that has always been working for you and you will, eventually.

GgoodluckG
Thanks for the thoughts. Yes instead of viewing myself as "unlucky", I do think it would be more fair to say I've just been lucky it hadn't happened before. I think I posted a while back (probably when I was on a heater) that I didn't have much variance in my results, but this has definitely humbled me.
Joey913 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2018, 06:46 PM   #20642
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27,736
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post
Thanks for the thoughts. Yes instead of viewing myself as "unlucky", I do think it would be more fair to say I've just been lucky it hadn't happened before. I think I posted a while back (probably when I was on a heater) that I didn't have much variance in my results, but this has definitely humbled me.
When I went on my first 955bb downswing at my 1,774 hour mark of 1/3 NL, I had never even been on a 500bb ($1500) downswing before.

Geverysamplesizewe'llputinduringourlifetimewilllik elybetoosmall,imoG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2018, 01:25 PM   #20643
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,156
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913 View Post
I apologize in advance as I don't frequent this thread much at all and my question is probably answered many times within, but here goes:

I've been playing 1/2 for about 7 years and am experiencing my worst downswing by a longshot. I truly believe I am actually playing the best poker of my life but want to do a sanity check to see if my results could just be negative variance or if the evidence would say I'm mostly likely not playing well.

Last July I had brief period where I didn't have to work and played 55 hours over 2 weeks, winning $2400. Since then I have played 80 hours and am down $1800. I'm assuming the 80 hours is close to statistically meaningless? Is this right?
80 hour downswing is going to be happening more often than you thought.
If you kept a record of your hands that involved a lot of money & you were a favorite when you got it in, then it's all variance. However, how many times did you read your V wrong & got it in bad?

Read an article in Card Player by Brian Devonshire over a year ago. He had an 18 month downswing where his bankroll was less at the end of the 18 months. He did not say how by how much, only that he didn't take any money out for expenses.

So, his bankroll could have been X & he ended up with 95% of X after 18 months. I can't wait to try & maintain my mental discipline vs. that kind of downswing.

That's like a 2/5NL player, with a $40K bankroll, having $38K left after playing poker for a year and a half.

Now Devonshire plays in a totally different kind of game & most likely doesn't play 100+ hours of cash a month, but still, I think it's possible.
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2018, 08:04 PM   #20644
browni3141
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 2,443
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
80 hour downswing is going to be happening more often than you thought.
If you kept a record of your hands that involved a lot of money & you were a favorite when you got it in, then it's all variance. However, how many times did you read your V wrong & got it in bad?

Read an article in Card Player by Brian Devonshire over a year ago. He had an 18 month downswing where his bankroll was less at the end of the 18 months. He did not say how by how much, only that he didn't take any money out for expenses.

So, his bankroll could have been X & he ended up with 95% of X after 18 months. I can't wait to try & maintain my mental discipline vs. that kind of downswing.

That's like a 2/5NL player, with a $40K bankroll, having $38K left after playing poker for a year and a half.

Now Devonshire plays in a totally different kind of game & most likely doesn't play 100+ hours of cash a month, but still, I think it's possible.
At the 2|5 level a professional will never have such a downswing, or they should probably not be a professional. Mathematically this is beyond the point where one could suspect either rigging or sucking at poker (or their game just sucks). In any case one should quit playing poker for money.

It may be totally reasonable for certain other types of players to experience such a downswing, such as the big game players who don't get much volume and have lower edges. It's not reasonable for a 2|5 pro.

Edit: It's probably close to 1 in a million for a very good player depending on the parameters you choose.
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2018, 08:11 PM   #20645
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 6,292
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
At the 2|5 level a professional will never have such a downswing, or they should probably not be a professional. Mathematically this is beyond the point where one could suspect either rigging or sucking at poker (or their game just sucks). In any case one should quit playing poker for money.

It may be totally reasonable for certain other types of players to experience such a downswing, such as the big game players who don't get much volume and have lower edges. It's not reasonable for a 2|5 pro.

Edit: It's probably close to 1 in a million for a very good player depending on the parameters you choose.
I agree 100%. 18 months of losing poker for a 2/5 professional? That would be somewhere in the 2500-2750 hour range. There's just no way anyone who is good enough to legitimately be a pro poker player runs that bad for that long. No way, no how.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2018, 08:43 PM   #20646
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
 
Avaritia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 10,712
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Ah the naivety of youth
Avaritia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2018, 08:58 PM   #20647
sw_emigre
old hand
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: resurfacing
Posts: 1,270
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Why is it so hard to believe math?

I'll borrow a quote from YTF in the Breakroom thread: "You can’t reason someone out of a position they didn’t reason themselves into."
sw_emigre is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2018, 09:31 PM   #20648
GatorXP
old hand
 
GatorXP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Out of the Theater
Posts: 1,630
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I agree 100%. 18 months of losing poker for a 2/5 professional? That would be somewhere in the 2500-2750 hour range. There's just no way anyone who is good enough to legitimately be a pro poker player runs that bad for that long. No way, no how.
Being 1200 hours into a BE stretch, I can tell u. It doesn't matter if you believe in the Boogie Man, he believes in u.
GatorXP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2018, 09:31 PM   #20649
meale
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
meale's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 7,917
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

0% chance a winning pro loses money after 3,000 hours at 2/5. Zero percent.
meale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2018, 10:01 PM   #20650
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 6,292
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorXP View Post
Being 1200 hours into a BE stretch, I can tell u. It doesn't matter if you believe in the Boogie Man, he believes in u.
Nobody is saying its not possible to break even for 1200 hours. I know lots of guys who break even or lose a **** ton of money over 1200 hours. But that is just not going to happen to a player who is a 6-10+BB winner and if you're not a player who wins at that rate you shouldnt be playing for a living.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:23 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ę 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online