going pro...

GG favors the sky is falling approach because his market leads the way in the march to suckiness, but he's not wrong in that game difficulty only goes in one direction. There is no guarantee that today's winner will be a winner tomorrow.

Nearly everyone is a variance fish. We generally can't accurately estimate our theoretical edge, we almost always guess too high, often way too high. Nearly everyone. Also, most of us have no appreciation of what a 99% confidence interval on our poker results actually looks like, so even if we do reasonably accurately guess our edge, we typically don't realize how crappy our results will be if we run bad over a long period.

Most everyone considering a voluntary switch to full time poker hasn't been smacked in the face with true run-bad, which most of us tend to pair up with some play-bad to go with it. This combo tends to feel more awful than we anticipate.

A lot of people underestimate the sucky working conditions. A decent job can have some normal human interaction, maybe even some reasonable teamwork (I know - crazy), which can have a pretty cool effect on the brain. It is an understatement to point out how challenging it can be in a casino environment to foster healthy relationships of any sort.

If one of my 20-something children told me they were going pro in poker, I'd laugh at them pretty hard and tell them that they could make a worse decision, but that I'll need a minute to think of some examples.

I have said it countless times - going pro is an absolutely insane idea in this day and age

When I first started playing 21 perfessionally I thought it would last forever. The sky was literally the limit. The landscape completely changed - suddenly it wasnt a viable option

Then I started playing poker on line. Thought that would last forever. Again the sky was literally the limit. OOPS thats gone

Started back to live poker. Sky was not the limit...not even close. I have a really good w/r but I make quite a bit less than what I made playing 21 solo (which was over 20 years ago) - and peanuts compared to what I was knocking back running a large organization. And as everyone has said this will not last forever.

Great side gig. But as an end game based on the current environment - life fish move for almost everyone imo

I think I need to go read Aesah’s thread again to brush off some of this negativity. I know you guys mean well but still if my next session is a losing session I’m blaming you

2017 live results. 385 hours, +$7510, $19.5/hr. Mostly 1/3, five 2/5 sessions (the big jump midgraph was a $1200 win, followed by a dream 1/3 table the next night) and one PLO session where I made every noob mistake in the book.




Online I had good cash results, about $16/hr (mostly NL100, mostly FR, and I table select religiously) but a bad year in MTTs (only cashed 7/85, avg BI $25, broke even there, but 3 big for me MTTs, total BI $1200, no moneyz). 2016 I cleaned up in online MTTs so I thought I had solved the pokerz. Somehow I was wrong.

Total take for the year was a bit over 12K. I cleared 10K last year and I hoped for a bigger jump. I did get my live hourly up from 13 to 19 but lol sample size. I didn't get as many live hours in 2017 as 16, though I did make up for it with more button clicking. Plan is to get in at least 10 hours/week either live or online, and play more live 2/5 on weekends when the lineup isn't 80% regs.

I'd also like to get back to enjoying poker more, but tbh I'm not certain how compatible that goal is with the 'moving up' and the 'win the money' goals.

And here's a head start on my 2018:
one online session, $160/hr.
[x] Sustainable

one live session, $98/hr. Helped by getting AA 3x, KK, AK 2x, and ATs flopped the NF, all in a 3 hour session.
[x] Sustainable

USA#1. Mostly east coast, but sometimes I go elsewhere to donate to strangers.

I'm on a 70k USD downswing since my high point last year, lol. That is all.

Would be cool if the winrate thread morphed into a bragging contest of who is weathering, or has weathered, the biggest downswing. Mine was 6k, so I'm not in Sol's league. (obviously)

Thank god for Crypto though.

Yeah, but Aesah quit poker for a job in the end didn't he? HM?????

Actually to start the rumour mill running, there's a chance he's unretiring woop woop.

Anyway re my downswing, this is a placeholder for when I get out of it, I shall quote it and present my recovery giraffe. I hope to be out of it by May. Variance Gods willing. Otherwise, I'm becoming a full time crypto luckbox/busto and part time 1/2 grinder.

70K is neat. Mostly plo?

Yeah, almost entirely PLO, some 5 card and 6 card too.

I've got like $180/hour this year at NLHE though haha.

Lol 6 card omaha. Just flip up the cards pre and run it imo

There are legitimate downsides to most careers. There is also a lot of luck involved in most careers. I think that promotion you're trying to get is heavily based on how much someone likes you and depends on your ability to conform to the group. Performance matter the most, I'm sure, but being liked is very important when you have a real job and want to move up the ladder. There is tons of social politics and social status bureaucratic bull**** out there. You also have to deal with certain additional disadvantages in the corporate world if you're anything but straight/white/male.

Poker has been a lot of fun for me and I've saved up a lot of money doing it while also being able to travel a lot and do whatever I feel like on a daily basis. I literally take like 15-20 vacations/trips per year and only some of those include playing poker on the trip. I also feel my relationship with my current wife-to-be had more of an opportunity to grow when we started dating 3 years ago because we had so much extra time to spend together and perhaps more importantly, flexibility with our time.

Although I rarely feel pressure to grind, there's times where I have to play cards when I don't want to with the same degens that I don't want to be around. On those days I just hang out on my smartphone a lot. Its a beautiful thing because that device has the entirety of human knowledge at your fingertips. I spend most of my sessions reading about what I want. I've learned so much about finance, business, investing, cooking, politics, trading, chess, cryptocurrency, health, and exercise just from having hundreds of hours each year to read on my phone while I play poker. This is something I value a lot because I feel significantly more knowledgeable about things that matter and can really help me than I was before. Also KINDLE! Its beautiful. I've read so many books over the last 3-4 years at the table, probably more than you whoever is reading this. Not to mention, a lot of that stuff I read about has provided me real monetary value that has taken away a little of the pressure to win at poker (investing, trading, business, crypto), and also health value (exercise, cooking).

Obviously, playing poker is not the only way to learn about this **** but if you're only playing 25% of your hands, thats 75% down-time at your job! (paying attention to the game is another tangent - cliffs: its important but not mandatory to win a lot of money at 2/5 and 5/10 if you play soft games and already have strong reads on your player pool). I don't know too many jobs with 75% downtime that you can spend reading.

Oh and please dont get me started on the tax advantages.

All that said, there are legitimate downsides to poker and I am definitely looking to get out by age 30. However, at this point, I'd only want to get out to work for myself in some way and only if I could make 6 figures after taxes. By far, the biggest downsides of the grind that WILL wear you out eventually are the social aspect (always surrounded by degens/addicts who somehow have the biggest ego in the world) and the downswings (usually i do 1 stretch of 5-600 hours breakeven per year, maybe average 2 losing months per year). I don't care who you are, you WILL get ****ing suicidal over this **** at some point. But to me, the bad times are worth the good.

All that said, if some random dude who was ok at poker asked me should I go pro? I'd say hell ****ing no. But if you have good longterm results and dont like your job that much, I dont think its the worst thing in the world.

Someone should let duke know his account has been hacked.

Also, us straight white males have it worse than you realize:

Oh i forgot to mention its 100% true the games are getting worse. Like every year i notice less tables, less fish, less whales, more regs. Rake going up too. So thats a pretty big downside too

Preach Duke! Happy New Year, hope things are good on your end. Sounds like they are.

In my 1/3 NL game I've had 2 downswings of $2866 (to the dollar, lol) = ~955bbs (both very quickly in ugly 3-7 session streaks) in my 3751 hours. Still currently trying to dig out of the second one.

Gmrlowvariance,obviouslyG

I hit my first major downswing literally the day I turned pro. -15k in two weeks (3k @ T/T, 12k @2/5). The doomswitch is real.

What is the best way to build a bankroll from nothing but a monthly 200-300 dollars, tournaments or cash games?

I prefer to play tournaments but I heard cash games are more better and consistent for making money and wondered considering my situation where I only spend 2-3 hundred per month, what would be the best way to build a bankroll to 2k plus? I could spend 200 on cash games per month or one 3 hundred dollar tourney once every month or two where I can win 8k max. I don't have internet and don't want to play via internet. cheers everybody

Save up until you have 3 buy-ins, then start playing low stakes on the tighter side until you improve.

I don't think tournaments is a great way to start and/or build a bankroll.

If you are 90%+ sure that you are a winning player, the best way would be to borrow money. Get a cash advance, or at the very worst case go for one of those usurious GETMONEYFAST.COM places that charge 100% interest. But if you're 90%+ sure that you are a winning player, you won't care about the interest because you'll be able to pay it back within a few months.

Of course, if you're wrong about being a winning player, you're screwed, but that goes without saying.

If you are 100% sure you are a winning player, then you ought to be able to prove it to someone else and get staked, which is an even better scenario than borrowing money.

If you're not 90%+ sure you are a winning player, your bankroll doesn't matter. Play poker for fun with money you can afford to lose, track your results, and work on getting better.

Please don't listen to this.



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Find a way to make more money.

Save up for 3 or 4 months and pray you don't start out on a downswing.

Trying to bink a tourney is not a great way.

Also, quick question.....and not to be a total smartass but if you don't have the internet how are you posting on the internet?

NO CASH ADVANCES!!!!

No Tournaments. (Entry fees at low levels make them long term unbeatable)

Saving up through work is the only way to build a roll. I suppose you can try the online route as well, but that should really just supplement the work savings.

My suggestion would be to save for 5-6 months until you have $1k (absolute minimum for $1/$2 NL assuming you can be a consistent winner) and use that time to study the game through available literature and reading hands here on the forum.

I know you want to go play (we all do), but being uber short BR and unprepared is a recipe for even a good player to be broke a lot and it just isn't worth it. You never want to go to the card room with the thought "God I have to win this session or I am going to be busto."

GL OP.

I agree with this if your goal it to build a bankroll, which is seems to be. The only way to do it is save enough money through your job, etc. Building a poker bankroll is not done through playing poker unless you are moving up in stakes!!!