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Old 10-18-2017, 06:23 PM   #19776
DeathCabForTootie
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Do you think it's fair comparing the results in your bigger deeper games (which I fully admit I would not have a handle on whatsover) versus the smaller BI rake trap of $1/2?

I'm simply comparing the same stakes / BI vs itself x years ago, that's all.

GcluelessstakesnoobG
Well yeah, it helps that the min and max BI are bigger and the rake is a smaller % of the blinds. The flip side is variance in all its forms: less fold equity, being put in tougher spots vs players who make less big mistakes less often, etc.

I played a bit of 1/2 last night waiting for a 2/5 seat to open up and the game was significantly softer than any meh 2/5 game. Ranges were much wider and more easily punished.

If I had to guess, you would be better off adjusting by playing a wider value range given how loose your game plays. You may not get 85/15s as often, but your 60/40 scenarios will come more often.
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Old 10-18-2017, 09:25 PM   #19777
Avaritia
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Ah this derail. Has it been a month already?
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Old 10-18-2017, 10:50 PM   #19778
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Do you think it's fair comparing the results in your bigger deeper games (which I fully admit I would not have a handle on whatsover) versus the smaller BI rake trap of $1/2?

I'm simply comparing the same stakes / BI vs itself x years ago, that's all.

GcluelessstakesnoobG
I keep hearing about this rake trap 1/2 game but I keep destroying it. Rake be damned. The players are so face up, so passive, so spewy compared to 2/5 that it more than makes up for the rake being higher percentage wise. I'm finding it harder and harder to drag myself away from the 12 games to play 2/5.
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Old 10-18-2017, 11:03 PM   #19779
MikeStarr
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm on board with the majority of this post (really, I am).

I simply don't agree with the line you said about your winrate not having to drop significantly / can still be pretty close. My guess is the long term will prove that (if it's provable, it would admittedly be pretty hard to track).

But other than that, yeah, doesn't mean we should roll over and don't have lots of room to get better.

ETA: For example, let's say your snowbirds didn't come back to roost in your game and the games remain kinda meh like they were for the summer (if I've read your PG&C right). Still the rosy outlook, just gotta roll up those sleeves more?

GcluelesswinratesnoobG
Even during the summer, the 1/2 games are laughably soft. At least once you get used to 2/5 and 5/10 games. Most guys have giant egos and will never move down but for me, I dont care what people think. Dealer after dealer steps into the box and asks me "what are you doing here?" or "this is 1/2?" after seeing me there. I dont care. I go where the money is.

Every time I go to Vegas the 1/2 games are filled with tourists. Ive seen plenty of people playing in the evenings in Vegas that dont even know what a straddle is. They are as soft as my 1/2 games.
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Old 10-19-2017, 01:53 AM   #19780
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

You serious? after playing bigger games I can't stand the way 1/2 games play sometimes, no action and I find myself literally calling crazy raises with any type of equity because not caring about the money.. winning one pot in my 5/10 game is like stacking 3 people in 1/2 lol
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Old 10-19-2017, 01:56 AM   #19781
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

The 2/5 and 5/10 games are filled with whales also..
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Old 10-19-2017, 05:56 AM   #19782
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by flopturntree View Post
I find myself literally calling crazy raises with any type of equity because not caring about the money.. winning one pot in my 5/10 game is like stacking 3 people in 1/2 lol
Hear this all the time from my circle and I never felt or understood it. Doesn't matter if its a 1/2 game, 10nl game online, 3 rebuy mtt or 10k mtt... i'm always trying to make the best decision each street. That is what gets my rocks off.
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Old 10-19-2017, 09:12 AM   #19783
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by flopturntree View Post
The 2/5 and 5/10 games are filled with whales also..
You have to remember that I play in S. Florida and its very seasonal here. During the summer you cant even find a 5/10 game. If you try hard enough you may find one once a week somewhere, but not necessarily where you want to play. The 2/5 games are reg/nit filled at least during the daytime. This sounds hard to believe but I honestly believe the 1/2 games during the summer are more profitable than the 2/5. Im talking in pure dollars terms. Not in terms of BBs.

When the snow birds arrive, its like an entirely different game. They are arriving now and the 5/10 games have picked back up already. The 2/5 games are much better already and the 1/2 is still a friggin gold mine.

I'm having a hard time pulling myself away from the evening/weekend 1/2 games. If I posted my win rate I would be called a liar.
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Old 10-19-2017, 11:54 AM   #19784
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Every time I go to Vegas the 1/2 games are filled with tourists. Ive seen plenty of people playing in the evenings in Vegas that dont even know what a straddle is. They are as soft as my 1/2 games.
If that's the case, then sure, no problem going where the money is and damn the stakes; it's a good strat for sure.

My lol low stakes 1/3 NL simply doesn't sound like your game filled with clueless noobs ("plenty of people not even knowing what a straddle is", wtf, I can't even conceive of encountering an opponent like this). Yeah, it's the lowest stakes going in my room. But it's also the only stakes going in the room, and it's a 100% reg filled game, with most players having played just as many or more hours than I have.

All I'm recounting is the experience I've gone thru and my game has gone thru. Doesn't sound like that's the case in your game, and that's fine.

Geveryone'sexperienceisdifferentG
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Old 10-19-2017, 01:28 PM   #19785
Angrist
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

GG ... I think your city just sucks more than the rest of ours does.

Time to retire to FL
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Old 10-19-2017, 01:39 PM   #19786
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

yeah gg your game just sounds awful tbh. while mike's games otoh appear to be extremely good.
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Old 10-19-2017, 02:25 PM   #19787
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Last time out I had someone raise to $12 with JTs, see a shortstack shove for $60, and then snap call my QQ $200 limp/shove. It can still be *very* good at times, and it is still beatable overall; hope I'm not making it out to be otherwise. It's just not as good as it was before.

Basically, to bring it more full circle with what this thread is all about (i.e. winrates), it will simply be very interesting to see everyone's giraffe 5 years from now if they are still playing in the same game (like I am doing). I didn't quite heed warnings that some in this forum offered me, those who had obviously been around the block and seen their game go thru the same evolution that all games will go thru, and questioned the long term survivability of my ~somewhat impressive winrate at lol ~2000 hours. I now understand their warnings a lot better now. Simply a cautionary tale, and it is my belief that most long term winrates will reflect this evolution within the ~same game.

GwhoIamkidding,thisissimplyanefforttobringRichardP arkeroutofthewoodworkinordertotellme"Itoldyouso!"G
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Old 10-19-2017, 03:00 PM   #19788
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
yeah gg your game just sounds awful tbh. while mike's games otoh appear to be extremely good.
Really doesn't sound awful at all. Pretty simple...bluff every hand since no one ever pays anyone off without the nuts or second nuts
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Old 10-19-2017, 03:05 PM   #19789
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
You have to remember that I play in S. Florida and its very seasonal here. During the summer you cant even find a 5/10 game. If you try hard enough you may find one once a week somewhere, but not necessarily where you want to play. The 2/5 games are reg/nit filled at least during the daytime. This sounds hard to believe but I honestly believe the 1/2 games during the summer are more profitable than the 2/5. Im talking in pure dollars terms. Not in terms of BBs.

When the snow birds arrive, its like an entirely different game. They are arriving now and the 5/10 games have picked back up already. The 2/5 games are much better already and the 1/2 is still a friggin gold mine.

I'm having a hard time pulling myself away from the evening/weekend 1/2 games. If I posted my win rate I would be called a liar.
PBKC 2/5 games seem to be good year round. The 5/10 pit is reg infested and the 5/10 300 max is stupid imho.
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Old 10-19-2017, 05:53 PM   #19790
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by SemiCharmed View Post
PBKC 2/5 games seem to be good year round. The 5/10 pit is reg infested and the 5/10 300 max is stupid imho.
I agree about PBKC. Its soft pretty much always. Its just a lousy drive for me...but the 5/10 $300 max isn't stupid. Its a gold mine. It sounds stupid, but its pure gold.
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Old 10-19-2017, 10:47 PM   #19791
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

5/10 player pools will always be reg infested the difference in a big winner and a big loser in 5/10 is how they do against regs. Again talking about south Florida also I hate the 300 max at kennel luckily I also hate the drive.
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Old 10-24-2017, 02:12 PM   #19792
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

has anyone on this forum worked with solvers? if so have you seen any significant improvements to your game (winrate/other observable edges) in live games?
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Old 10-26-2017, 03:21 PM   #19793
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

If I have my win rate, my std dev, and average buy in how can I calculate a minimum BRM? I keep seeing this 20x rule but I would like a good formula to determine the lowest amount of risk while keeping the minimum amount of "relatively liquid" cash on hand.
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Old 10-26-2017, 03:26 PM   #19794
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by runlikeadonkey View Post
If I have my win rate, my std dev, and average buy in how can I calculate a minimum BRM? I keep seeing this 20x rule but I would like a good formula to determine the lowest amount of risk while keeping the minimum amount of "relatively liquid" cash on hand.
http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Useful tool, but take it with a grain of salt.
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Old 10-26-2017, 04:32 PM   #19795
Avaritia
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by jc315 View Post
has anyone on this forum worked with solvers? if so have you seen any significant improvements to your game (winrate/other observable edges) in live games?
I havent worked directly with solvers but I study lines they take and they are very applicable to live if you understand what they are telling you.

For example Pio may check AJ on J47 but it always bets AJ. Everyone acts like this is common knowledge in 2017 but it was really revolutionary to see these lines from solvers when they first came out. This particular line applies greatly to live poker.

This should be the final frontier of your study though. It should go something like:

Discipline
Preflop hand selection
Discipline
Bet sizing
Bet/folding
Discipline
Line reading
Bet/folding
Bet/folding
Bet/folding
.
.
.
.
Bet/folding
.
.
.
.solvers

By about the 5th bet/folding you will have reached 90% of your potential wr imo
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Old 10-26-2017, 05:46 PM   #19796
jc315
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

yeah thanks for the comment.

i def understand that there are still a ton of things i can work on in my game before solvers to make me a 100x better player.

i think the sontheimer podcast on the ingram podcast was really good. and one thing he said that resonated was, he talked about GTO vs exploitative play (i hope this doesnt spark another ridiculous discussion about it). but he said one thing is that people say stuff like "oh you are over folding if you fold ____ on this board" or "this player c-bets way too much" but they actually have no idea what the optimal fold frequency is with that hand on that board or what the optimal betting frequency is with that hand.

anyway, was just curious as to what extent solvers can be applied to live play and how helpful they would be because I know much of LLSNL can be crushed without them.
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Old 10-26-2017, 05:53 PM   #19797
mreps
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
I havent worked directly with solvers but I study lines they take and they are very applicable to live if you understand what they are telling you.

For example Pio may check AJ on J47 but it always bets AJ. Everyone acts like this is common knowledge in 2017 but it was really revolutionary to see these lines from solvers when they first came out. This particular line applies greatly to live poker.

This should be the final frontier of your study though. It should go something like:

Discipline
Preflop hand selection
Discipline
Bet sizing
Bet/folding
Discipline
Line reading
Bet/folding
Bet/folding
Bet/folding
.
.
.
.
Bet/folding
.
.
.
.solvers

By about the 5th bet/folding you will have reached 90% of your potential wr imo
What stakes do you play?
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Old 10-26-2017, 06:19 PM   #19798
Avaritia
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

That applies to all stakes, if that’s what you’re asking. There is less difference between 1/2 and 10/25 than you’d think (depends on location ofc, like lol Vegas)...but yea still a ton of button clicking, except the button clickers at 10/25 think they have explanations for their button clicking.

And the only thing that I have gotten better at in 4 years is folding. Sure, I’ve learned a lot more theory. But I’m not much better since I read HOC years ago. In a game where 50% of players see flop and villains have 0% ft3bet and 0% ftcbet, folding is really the only thing you need to get good at.

It’s about 50% 2/5, 40% 1/2 plo, and 10% higher NL tho, since you asked. Biggest game being 1/2 plo.
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Old 10-26-2017, 08:44 PM   #19799
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Working with solvers is good in general to help your understanding of theory but applying what you learn to LLSNL games is largely not going to be useful. Like in his example, AJss vs AJcc on J47r. Vs 90% of the population, you should be playing both hands the same - just bet for value because we're not concerned with protecting our checking frequencies vs average population in this game. Vs the top good regs, then you can play a little more optimally.

What becomes problematic is when people start checking AJss here 90% of the time vs population because Pio says so. That is going to be a huge mistake in just about any LLSNL lineup.
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Old 10-27-2017, 07:39 AM   #19800
DeathCabForTootie
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
but yea still a ton of button clicking, except the button clickers at 10/25 think they have explanations for their button clicking.
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