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Old 10-11-2017, 02:41 PM   #19726
Angrist
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

There are new suckers born every day GG: https://xkcd.com/1053/
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Old 10-11-2017, 02:58 PM   #19727
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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But isn't that sorta the way it is?

NL poker has been in our market pretty much right after Moneymaker. Everyone who has wanted to try out poker since the poker boom has had a decade+ to give it a try.

I mean, obviously you'll still get some late comers to the party. But it's clearly past midnight.

Gwouldn'tbankonanyhotchicksshowingupanytimesoon,im oG
GG, you're making me feel good about my life long depression. For one, you have the front page of this forum filled with posts written by people who don't know the game (myself included), and they're the ones actively learning. Have you never seen a person under 30 in your casino? Do you not have people who play poker to gamble in your room? Is everyone in your playerpool a cardrunner that uses PioSolver on every hand they take a note on? It could be that you're so risk averse and woeful in nature that you're blocking yourself from playing better (by having chips to wager on turns and rivers is what I'm gettin at here ole friend who's actually helped me a lot when I first got into live poker with posting SPR hand planning analysis and other sorts of analysis good for winning)
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Old 10-11-2017, 03:25 PM   #19728
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I'm simply saying this: poker is getting harder.

If you don't agree with that, then your experience is much different than mine.

I highly doubt (although I stand to be corrected) that many people who have played the game for more than 5 years would say otherwise.

And I'm also not saying the game is unbeatable. My game is clearly beatable. It's just not as beatable as before (for the same amount of effort). That makes it harder.

If you think the game is getting easier, or it's going to remain at a constant, my guess is you'd be in the minority.

Gthat'sallI'msaying,nothingmore,nothinglessG
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Old 10-11-2017, 03:37 PM   #19729
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I've only been in live poker for about 2 years. I was able to beat online micro full ring before black friday over ~150k hands. I sucked a lot back then & from playing online after BF, I certainly realized those games were much, much tougher. Right now, my perception of live poker is like this: Anything under a 2/5 $1k cap format is really soft. People's pf ranges are bad and post flop mistakes are numerous. The "good" average player still has a weak pf range but is more adpet post, making 1k cap games a bit tougher. I don't play 5/T, but hear those games can have up to half the table be winning regs & the rest are rec players. I think that the game will get tougher, but I think experience is the greatest learning tool and the average rec player who puts in ~200 hrs/ year will never see enough hands in their lifetime to be anywhere close to "solid." Your HH alone prove how bad some players still are.
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Old 10-11-2017, 03:47 PM   #19730
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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I've only been in live poker for about 2 years. I was able to beat online micro full ring before black friday over ~150k hands. I sucked a lot back then & from playing online after BF, I certainly realized those games were much, much tougher. Right now, my perception of live poker is like this: Anything under a 2/5 $1k cap format is really soft. People's pf ranges are bad and post flop mistakes are numerous. The "good" average player still has a weak pf range but is more adpet post, making 1k cap games a bit tougher. I don't play 5/T, but hear those games can have up to half the table be winning regs & the rest are rec players. I think that the game will get tougher, but I think experience is the greatest learning tool and the average rec player who puts in ~200 hrs/ year will never see enough hands in their lifetime to be anywhere close to "solid." Your HH alone prove how bad some players still are.
It really depends on your experience on how you're going to view this.

I've played exactly 0 hands of on-line poker, so I don't have a difficult background to come from and just jumped directly into lol live pokr. So anything that doesn't involve a guy with TP not stacking off when I flop a set (like it was before) is more difficult game conditions for me, whereas it won't be for someone who is coming from on-line.

All's I'm saying is come back in 5 years when you are at your 7 year mark, and ask yourself if the live game you are playing in is the same or more difficult. It still might be far easier than the on-line game you played. But it will most likely have gotten tougher overall (still beatable, but tougher).

I'm really not sure how many hours the average player puts in in my room. I play about ~550 hours a year playing more-or-less once-a-week + a few other sessions. A few years ago, our room ran a promotion where the players who put in the most hours in a month got into a free roll tourney; I just played my normal once-a-week session and was rather surprised that I cracked the top 30 in hours (just barely, if I recall). Nowadays, I don't think I would; I'm guessing most players in my room log more hours than me (I have no way of confirming that, it is just an educated guess), and that experience is showing in their play.

ETA: Hopefully this isn't sidetracking the thread. I don't believe it is since all of this is integral to winrates.

Gjustoneman'sexperienceG
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Old 10-11-2017, 03:51 PM   #19731
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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I'm simply saying this: poker is getting harder.

If you don't agree with that, then your experience is much different than mine.

I highly doubt (although I stand to be corrected) that many people who have played the game for more than 5 years would say otherwise.

And I'm also not saying the game is unbeatable. My game is clearly beatable. It's just not as beatable as before (for the same amount of effort). That makes it harder.

If you think the game is getting easier, or it's going to remain at a constant, my guess is you'd be in the minority.

Gthat'sallI'msaying,nothingmore,nothinglessG
There is no doubt that poker is getting tougher. Its a fact. You cant just wait for an overpair and double up. You have to mix your game up. Use peoples tendencies against them. Exploit their weaknesses. Rep the hand that they are afraid of. Let them value own themselves when you know you are ahead, instead of just making a big raise and watching them stack off lite like used to work.

To win as much as you used to, you have to do all the things that other people aren't doing.
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Old 10-11-2017, 04:51 PM   #19732
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Re: poker getting tougher... I'm wondering how much all of this follows the economy at large. I feel like the game is financed by the biggest whales, which not only feed the best players, but also keep the next tier fish from losing so much that they're forced to stop playing. Remove the whales, the other fish come less often, the game starts to dry up a bit... Also, there's all the kids in college or just graduated; if they're struggling to find a job with any kind of income, they may turn to poker - and anybody trying to play poker as a source of income, even if they're not so great, will dry out the game... I'm guessing if we see a big economic boom that more whales will return to the tables, the other fish will follow in their track, and broke college kids trying to pay rent will find something else to do...
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Old 10-11-2017, 04:58 PM   #19733
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Poker is getting tougher but that's really not a problem as long as you're getting better too. I started playing like 9 years ago and made a liveable but unspectacular hourly back then playing an ultra nit style. The field of players has gotten a lot better, but I've made larger gains than the collective field, so I make a higher hourly now. They're gonna keep getting better but I see no reason why I can't keep gaining on the field.
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Old 10-11-2017, 06:03 PM   #19734
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Poker is getting tougher but that's really not a problem as long as you're getting better too. I started playing like 9 years ago and made a liveable but unspectacular hourly back then playing an ultra nit style. The field of players has gotten a lot better, but I've made larger gains than the collective field, so I make a higher hourly now. They're gonna keep getting better but I see no reason why I can't keep gaining on the field.
IMO, the profit comes in the difference in skill level. The bigger the gap in skill level, the bigger the profit. But most games also have a ceiling in skill level, either due to the structure of the game (ex. tic-tac-toe) or due to most of us are just mere humans (ex. I've definitely getting worse in hockey, partly as a result of age, and I will definitely not be getting any better even with my wealth of experience). It's pretty easy to move from a whale to a fish, and from a fish to a ~breakevenish player in poker, and that obliterates a lot of the profit right there. I'm not necessarily going to argue a hard strategy ceiling (like in tic-tac-toe), but it's going to take a heckuva lotta work (for some of us, maybe most of us, work that we are incapable of accomplishing) for us mere mortals to crush at the same rates as conditions move in that direction.

It sounds like you are an exception to this. I'd be curious as to your sample size hours over the 9 years that illustrate this?

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 10-11-2017, 06:06 PM   #19735
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I can think of a few reasons:

1. Your ability to remain above the field might be capped by the fact there's a learning ceiling in the game. That ceiling is represented by GTO and as we know if eveyrone played that way, you might as well be playing tic tac toe. Obviously, we are ways off having live poker pools play a GTO style, but as I see the evolution of the game so far, I can think of the ways it will evolve in the future and in my mind it's one step closer to it.

2. The casino raising rake means raising prices which cuts to bottom line.

3. We have taken as a given that the main games for live poker are going to remain the same; but as we see from online poker, online operators keep introducing game variants which even if beatable, luck plays a big role. To an extent that's happening with some people moving to PLO right now, but can you imagine a format like spin and go taking hold in a live casino environment?

The short version is nothing's given. I feel pretty good about my skill level right now, but I am also pretty insecure about my future ability to make money off the game. Either way, it's going to require a ton of adjustment and work to keep up.
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Old 10-11-2017, 07:42 PM   #19736
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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I can think of a few reasons:

1. Your ability to remain above the field might be capped by the fact there's a learning ceiling in the game. That ceiling is represented by GTO and as we know if eveyrone played that way, you might as well be playing tic tac toe. Obviously, we are ways off having live poker pools play a GTO style, but as I see the evolution of the game so far, I can think of the ways it will evolve in the future and in my mind it's one step closer to it.

2. The casino raising rake means raising prices which cuts to bottom line.

3. We have taken as a given that the main games for live poker are going to remain the same; but as we see from online poker, online operators keep introducing game variants which even if beatable, luck plays a big role. To an extent that's happening with some people moving to PLO right now, but can you imagine a format like spin and go taking hold in a live casino environment?

The short version is nothing's given. I feel pretty good about my skill level right now, but I am also pretty insecure about my future ability to make money off the game. Either way, it's going to require a ton of adjustment and work to keep up.
great input, i'd load up on the PLO stock if i could, it really is a game that is very attractive to losing players; more fun, more action, more variance. the big issue with it is that it plays big, much bigger than nl for the same big blind. in my opinion its inevitable that the biggest whales will eventually move to plo if it's available to them which can easily ''kill'' a given NL market if it's not that big player pool wise.

my 700k population city could not substain a PLO game without drying up the NL in just a matter of weeks, its quite insane to see
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Old 10-11-2017, 10:25 PM   #19737
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I'm seeing that same movement toward PLO in my local pool. All the big time whales love it. When that game starts the NL tables dry up visibly in the smaller rooms as the money moves there. All the home games are going that way too.

One of the things I've seen mentioned about the two games is that calling too often is a bigger leak than folding too often inmost NLHE games, while the reverse is true of a PLO game. Which plays into fishy tendencies of wanting to play every single hand.
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Old 10-11-2017, 10:27 PM   #19738
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Re: poker getting tougher... I'm wondering how much all of this follows the economy at large. I feel like the game is financed by the biggest whales, which not only feed the best players, but also keep the next tier fish from losing so much that they're forced to stop playing. Remove the whales, the other fish come less often, the game starts to dry up a bit... Also, there's all the kids in college or just graduated; if they're struggling to find a job with any kind of income, they may turn to poker - and anybody trying to play poker as a source of income, even if they're not so great, will dry out the game... I'm guessing if we see a big economic boom that more whales will return to the tables, the other fish will follow in their track, and broke college kids trying to pay rent will find something else to do...
The economy at large is doing great. The S&P 500 is up 20% in the past year. Emerging markets are up 28%. European markets are up 25%. Today Japanese markets hit a 21 year high and overall world markets are at an all-time high. Bitcoin is close to an all-time high. This year US home prices have risen to a point that hasn't been seen since 2006. The unemployment rate in the US has been going down fairly steadily from it's 10% peak in October of 2009 to 4.2% in September of 2017.

Fact is the poker economy was in much better shape back in 2008/2009 when the US and world economies were in terrible shape.

GG is correct that poker is heavily reliant on new players to feed money into the economy. The number of new players (in the US at least) has been on a great decline since black friday. There is no doubt that the games are tougher today than they were even a few years ago. Midstakes games have been drying up all over the country and that only makes the low stakes games even worse.

That's not to say that poker necessarily has to continue to decline. There is a possibility that it could gain popularity, but I certainly wouldn't hold out hope that the floodgates will open back up because of some sort of moneymaker type effect.
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Old 10-11-2017, 10:39 PM   #19739
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

The stock market being up has more to do with the trillions im central bank liquidity injections + billions in corporate share buybacks and less to do with how the economy as a whole is actually doing. We are far more likely to see a recession, market correction and decline in home values over the next 18-24 months than we are to continue on this 8 years and counting unabated march higher.
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Old 10-12-2017, 01:18 AM   #19740
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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The stock market being up has more to do with the trillions im central bank liquidity injections + billions in corporate share buybacks and less to do with how the economy as a whole is actually doing. We are far more likely to see a recession, market correction and decline in home values over the next 18-24 months than we are to continue on this 8 years and counting unabated march higher.
+1
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Old 10-12-2017, 03:47 AM   #19741
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm simply saying this: poker is getting harder.

If you don't agree with that, then your experience is much different than mine.

I highly doubt (although I stand to be corrected) that many people who have played the game for more than 5 years would say otherwise.

And I'm also not saying the game is unbeatable. My game is clearly beatable. It's just not as beatable as before (for the same amount of effort). That makes it harder.

If you think the game is getting easier, or it's going to remain at a constant, my guess is you'd be in the minority.

Gthat'sallI'msaying,nothingmore,nothinglessG
I find poker getting easier because I am improving faster than my competition.
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Old 10-12-2017, 12:05 PM   #19742
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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I find poker getting easier because I am improving faster than my competition.
Again, I won't go so far as saying the skill ceiling of poker is capped like it is in tic-tac-toe / etc., but I do find it a little hard to believe this (at least, in some conditions). In a lot of structures (my guess is you play in deeper structure game, so this might not necessarily apply), it doesn't take that much effort for the bottomdwellers skill level to catch up significantly to the frontrunners (thus obliterating the huge skill difference where the majority of profit is made), with not much room to go after that, to make it much more difficult to beat in a raked environment.

But that's just the way I've always looked at things; not everyone agrees.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 10-12-2017, 12:55 PM   #19743
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Again, I won't go so far as saying the skill ceiling of poker is capped like it is in tic-tac-toe / etc., but I do find it a little hard to believe this (at least, in some conditions). In a lot of structures (my guess is you play in deeper structure game, so this might not necessarily apply), it doesn't take that much effort for the bottomdwellers skill level to catch up significantly to the frontrunners (thus obliterating the huge skill difference where the majority of profit is made), with not much room to go after that, to make it much more difficult to beat in a raked environment.

But that's just the way I've always looked at things; not everyone agrees.

GcluelessNLnoobG
The best NLHE heads up poker bots can now crush the best humans, maybe at something like 15BB/100. And I imagine the ceiling is lower heads up than full-ring (well maybe like 6-max, but FR games tend to often be that), and the ceiling is going to remain high when we're trying to maximize wins against very exploitable opponents...

I wouldn't doubt that something like 25-30BB/hour (long term/actual expectation) is technically possible at a lot of LLSNL games, and will remain possible, but not something that any of us will actually ever achieve.

My point is, just as chess and Go have a huge amount of granularity in skill level, so does poker, and the ceiling in terms of what is possible is likely much higher than we'd like to admit to ourselves.

Last edited by pocketzeroes; 10-12-2017 at 01:02 PM.
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Old 10-12-2017, 12:58 PM   #19744
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Hey all im curious about this. Let say a top nl player plays 2/5 or 5/10nl. Let say its someone just like trickett, polk, mercier or one of those big names. Lets say they make a huge prop bet to make it worth it to them.


What would you think their winrate would be over 2000 hours? Because 10bb seems to be the top echelon its seems but some people mention it could be 15bb for the top of top world class players in 2/5. Also i watched some live at the bike and it seems like garrett and andy are clearly one of the to players there. Would you say guys like trickett, polk, mercier would probably all have 15bb/hr at 2/5? Im guessing it probably would be 10bb/hr at 5/10nl? Would guys like that absolutely wreck the competition at the 5/10nl games in vegas if they decided to play it?
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Old 10-12-2017, 01:10 PM   #19745
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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I wouldn't doubt that something like 25-30BB/hour (long term/actual expectation) is technically possible at a lot of LLSNL games, and will remain possible, but not something that any of us will actually ever achieve.
Well, since basically no one is doing that (right?), then isn't this point moot?

That's like saying all we have to do to be the best 100m sprinter in the world is run 9.4s consistently (gee, why didn't I think of that?). It's perhaps humanly possible, but you ain't never going to do it.

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Old 10-12-2017, 01:10 PM   #19746
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I dont think they would have alot bigger winrate than the best names and say regs at live at the bike. Players like Adelstein is world class NL cash players.They also have countless hours and well builded up reads on their villains through the years, that money cant buy.

Also Polk have been caught spewing at the Aria 5/10 games on couple of occassions I actually think the big hotshots like the guys you mention maybe would have trouble of having the patience,discipline and consistency to blast off the winrates over a 2000 hour sample at 2/5 or even 5/10. The skillset needed for smaller stakes and the dynamics/how the games play is also totally different from nosebleeds and higher stakes of course, so i woudnt think they would crush it for any absurd winrate over a big sample. The prop bet needs to be insanely big for these guys to not run into motivation problems over a 2000 hour stretch imo.
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Old 10-12-2017, 01:14 PM   #19747
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Hey all im curious about this. Let say a top nl player plays 2/5 or 5/10nl. Let say its someone just like trickett, polk, mercier or one of those big names. Lets say they make a huge prop bet to make it worth it to them.


What would you think their winrate would be over 2000 hours? Because 10bb seems to be the top echelon its seems but some people mention it could be 15bb for the top of top world class players in 2/5. Also i watched some live at the bike and it seems like garrett and andy are clearly one of the to players there. Would you say guys like trickett, polk, mercier would probably all have 15bb/hr at 2/5? Im guessing it probably would be 10bb/hr at 5/10nl? Would guys like that absolutely wreck the competition at the 5/10nl games in vegas if they decided to play it?
I know a few people who can beat a 2/5 1K cap for much more than 10bb/hr. Sometimes a better measure of a live game is effective stack size and not the blind. Seems like you're asking what win-rate can actually be attained by man & there's no real answer to that. Win rate is based on your competition and your current image, so it's always in flux. If the top 9 players play at the same table, it's likely only the house wins long term. But, for the fun of guesstimating, I think Ivy can beat an average 5/T game for like $145/hr.
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Old 10-12-2017, 01:16 PM   #19748
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by PaulyJames200x View Post
Hey all im curious about this. Let say a top nl player plays 2/5 or 5/10nl. Let say its someone just like trickett, polk, mercier or one of those big names. Lets say they make a huge prop bet to make it worth it to them.


What would you think their winrate would be over 2000 hours? Because 10bb seems to be the top echelon its seems but some people mention it could be 15bb for the top of top world class players in 2/5. Also i watched some live at the bike and it seems like garrett and andy are clearly one of the to players there. Would you say guys like trickett, polk, mercier would probably all have 15bb/hr at 2/5? Im guessing it probably would be 10bb/hr at 5/10nl? Would guys like that absolutely wreck the competition at the 5/10nl games in vegas if they decided to play it?
It depends a huge amount on the game. And just because they're skilled at beating other good players doesn't necessarily mean that they will be as skilled at exploiting LLSNL players and having the highest expectation in those games. I think a real crusher (who has probably long since moved on from LLSNL) can expect 15BB/hour at a lot/most games as long as they're playing their A game - and once they've had a chance to study it and understand player tendencies in those specific games and if they have mostly stacks of at least 100BB, preferably 200BB. Note: as winrate EV increases, I think so does variance. There are certainly spots where 2.5x pot bluffs are probably best against certain players and with certain dynamics present, but most of us aren't going to risk a huge amount for a relatively small amount of gain in EV.

Some games with whales I think are beaten by crushers easily for over 20BB/hour.

But as Petrucci mentioned, most players don't maintain their A+ game EV because of tendency to spew, etc.
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Old 10-12-2017, 01:27 PM   #19749
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Sometimes a better measure of a live game is effective stack size and not the blind.
+1

Also, for the record, have we seen anything remotely close to a 20bb/hr winrate over a non-trivial sample size posted in this thread? People already toss around 10bb/hr winrates like halloween candy (with very little posted evidence of this), so you'll have to excuse me if I'm a little skeptical (especially at low stakes low BI high rake games).

GcluelesswinratenoobG
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Old 10-12-2017, 01:51 PM   #19750
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Well, since basically no one is doing that (right?), then isn't this point moot?

That's like saying all we have to do to be the best 100m sprinter in the world is run 9.4s consistently (gee, why didn't I think of that?). It's perhaps humanly possible, but you ain't never going to do it.

Gtakesme9.4stogetoutoftheblocksG
Not a moot point at all because the whole point is that, while no one is doing that right now, we can do that in the future. This shows we're really not that close to the ceiling. So as the general populations skill increases, sk can ours. People will study the a.i. and learn from it
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