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Old 06-17-2017, 06:36 AM   #19051
LordRiverRat
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

How much do you guys think your win rate drops from 1/2 to 1/3 to 2/5? I've played just under 150 hours of 1/2 and about 120 hours of 1/3 in the last six weeks in Vegas. Did not really notice much of a difference at all in difficulty level between 1/2 and 1/3. Maybe slightly fewer 60+ VPIP fish but no real difference. I'm assuming if you're 10bb/hr at 1/2 you're 9-10bb/hr at 1/3.

But how much do you guys think that win rate will drop if I move to 2/5? 6bb/hr? 7bb/hr? In the rooms I've played in here in Vegas 2/5 is never the lowest stake offered so it's probably gonna play way better and way more aggressive. If I'm 9 bb/hr at 1/3 (I'm probably not but I wish I am) then with the increased variance 2/5 probably won't be a good decision for anything less than 6-7 bb/hr. I'm assuming to move up effectively and have a high enough win rate at 2/5 to be less likely to experience soul crushing downswings I'd have to improve myself to be a 10bb/hr winner at my current level (not that it's measurable)?

Also 2/5 at Bellagio has to be significantly softer than 2/5 everywhere else in Vegas right? Cause the max buy in is only 100bb which is shallower than most of the 1/2 games. No way there's too many good grinders in that game.
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Old 06-17-2017, 10:53 AM   #19052
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

2/5 at bellagio is garbage IME. Plays super tight. Even if there's no tough grinders, you can't beat the rake in live poker unless you can stack people without coolering them.
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Old 06-17-2017, 11:28 AM   #19053
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Bellagio 2/5 is easily beatable but the attainable winrate is much lower than most 2/5s across the country. The game tends to play quite small and is likely filled with a bunch of mediocre tight grinders that are staked. I'm talking about weekday games outside of the series. During the WSOP you can potentially find any type of game anywhere anytime.
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Old 06-17-2017, 12:56 PM   #19054
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

My experience in $1/2 and $1/3 games is that they're basically equivalent in terms of $/hr. The better tables are the ones with deeper stacks, more alcohol, and players willing to throw money in. Both levels will have that and both levels will have rock gardens. The table selection is more important than the stake there.

I don't have enough $2/5 experience to really comment across the country.
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Old 06-18-2017, 03:15 PM   #19055
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Not sure what I'm doing wrong

In Live 1/3, I see most good players rack up single session wins of over $1000. However, over 110 hours of play and 20 sessions, I have never even won over $500 despite overall having a win rate of $15/hr over that time span. Is this a common occurrence or am I probably playing poorly?
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Old 06-18-2017, 03:33 PM   #19056
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Re: Not sure what I'm doing wrong

"Is this a common occurrence or am I playing poorly?"

Is WHAT a common occurrence?

In general I would say that you are simply missing value in certain situations. If you want to improve this you just need to review the bet sizing decisions you're making, and that you're not checking too many streets that you could be missing value on. Maybe there are Preflop scenarios where you're missing as well. If you're still a solid winner I would be patient though, your consistency is valuable.


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Old 06-18-2017, 04:19 PM   #19057
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Re: Not sure what I'm doing wrong

sounds like you might just be playing a bit too tight. not that big a deal, but if you open up a bit you have more big winning sessions. also going to have bigger losses. embrace the variance.
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Old 06-18-2017, 04:40 PM   #19058
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Re: Not sure what I'm doing wrong

Please discuss in the Winrates Bankroll and Finances thread. I'd move it myself, but I'm on my phone. [mod note: venice10 moved it]

Cliffs: Winrate is important, cash-out size isn't. Your winrate is good, but not great, which leads to suspicion that your betsizing and willingness to value bet thinly need work.

Last edited by venice10; 06-18-2017 at 05:07 PM. Reason: That said, your sample size is pretty small to draw a lot of conclusions from.
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Old 06-18-2017, 06:16 PM   #19059
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinist View Post
In Live 1/3, I see most good players rack up single session wins of over $1000. However, over 110 hours of play and 20 sessions, I have never even won over $500 despite overall having a win rate of $15/hr over that time span. Is this a common occurrence or am I probably playing poorly?


110 hours isn't much to draw conclusions from. Generally 10bb/hr winrate is considered crushing. So an "average" 5hr session for a crusher would result in running a 300 stack to 450.

At a 15/hr wr a on avg you would spin up 300 into 375 in 5 hrs. The rest is variance. Personally I play a higher variance style and it's not uncommon for me to cash out big. Sometimes it's big winnings, sometimes I'm in the game for multiple buy ins and sometimes a lose a couple buy ins. But as Garrick said wr or overall winnings is the long term yardstick for success not single session winnings.

As for whether you have big leaks you'd be better served to post some individual hand histories than try to infer anything from short term results.

Oh and fwiw a 5bb/hr winner long term is a well above average player.


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Old 06-19-2017, 07:19 AM   #19060
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
What's your winrate home game vs vegas game? Is the home game noticeably higher?


1k hours took about 3 years. Win rate between Vegas 300 hours and other games 700 hours is near the same, with Vegas just a touch higher.


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Old 06-19-2017, 08:56 AM   #19061
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Re: Not sure what I'm doing wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinist View Post
In Live 1/3, I see most good players rack up single session wins of over $1000. However, over 110 hours of play and 20 sessions, I have never even won over $500 despite overall having a win rate of $15/hr over that time span. Is this a common occurrence or am I probably playing poorly?
First and foremost you have a very small sample so it's essentially meaningless.

However I want to address the psychological part here.

In a poker room, you are bombarded with results oriented madness. Someone will ALWAYS be racking up 400bbs in a night. Someone will ALWAYS get there with their horrible spew. Someone will ALWAYS successfully spazz bluff in a terrible spot. Just a few weeks ago a whale playing BLIND in plo racked up $3K in a 1/2 game.

It's frustrating, but just keep grinding. Your $100-300 dollar wins add up huge over time.

I've had similar thoughts as you since I've started playing poker, and yet I'm only one of a few regulars that is still around. The guys who seemed to always be racking up stacks have burned out long ago. (And / or simply moved on, but I think it's mostly the former)
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:05 AM   #19062
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Re: Not sure what I'm doing wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
First and foremost you have a very small sample so it's essentially meaningless.

However I want to address the psychological part here.

In a poker room, you are bombarded with results oriented madness. Someone will ALWAYS be racking up 400bbs in a night. Someone will ALWAYS get there with their horrible spew. Someone will ALWAYS successfully spazz bluff in a terrible spot. Just a few weeks ago a whale playing BLIND in plo racked up $3K in a 1/2 game.

It's frustrating, but just keep grinding. Your $100-300 dollar wins add up huge over time.

I've had similar thoughts as you since I've started playing poker, and yet I'm only one of a few regulars that is still around. The guys who seemed to always be racking up stacks have burned out long ago. (And / or simply moved on, but I think it's mostly the former)
Case in point. Yesterday a guy raised preflop and got 3 calls.
He bet a JcJs4h flop and got shoved on. He called.

Villain shows KhJd. Fish says "I dont care about a J. I know what I need"

Turn 6h
River 8h

Fish slams his AhQh on the table and collects his pot. He went on to play like a fish and had a big stack. Anyone who didnt see the hands might think the guy was a great player since he had a big stack. You can bet he loses most of the time.
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Old 06-19-2017, 10:44 AM   #19063
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Re: Not sure what I'm doing wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Case in point. Yesterday a guy raised preflop and got 3 calls.

He bet a JcJs4h flop and got shoved on. He called.



Villain shows KhJd. Fish says "I dont care about a J. I know what I need"



Turn 6h

River 8h



Fish slams his AhQh on the table and collects his pot. He went on to play like a fish and had a big stack. Anyone who didnt see the hands might think the guy was a great player since he had a big stack. You can bet he loses most of the time.


But those 2 overs and back door flush and boat draws tho.


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Old 06-19-2017, 10:45 AM   #19064
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Re: Not sure what I'm doing wrong

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Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
But those 2 overs and back door flush and boat draws tho.


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don't forget BD straight, i'm sure he def knew what he needed
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Old 06-19-2017, 10:56 AM   #19065
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Re: Not sure what I'm doing wrong

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don't forget BD straight, i'm sure he def knew what he needed
I wish he hit the bd straight instead.

What a cooler it'd be.
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Old 06-19-2017, 10:59 AM   #19066
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

You don't know that $1000 being racked up is a win either

Can't count how many times I have been inadvertently needles by the cashier saying something like "Looks like you had a good day" as I cash out 3 racks and am still stuck
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Old 06-19-2017, 11:06 AM   #19067
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Re: Not sure what I'm doing wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
First and foremost you have a very small sample so it's essentially meaningless.

However I want to address the psychological part here.

In a poker room, you are bombarded with results oriented madness. Someone will ALWAYS be racking up 400bbs in a night. Someone will ALWAYS get there with their horrible spew. Someone will ALWAYS successfully spazz bluff in a terrible spot. Just a few weeks ago a whale playing BLIND in plo racked up $3K in a 1/2 game.

It's frustrating, but just keep grinding. Your $100-300 dollar wins add up huge over time.

I've had similar thoughts as you since I've started playing poker, and yet I'm only one of a few regulars that is still around. The guys who seemed to always be racking up stacks have burned out long ago. (And / or simply moved on, but I think it's mostly the former)
+ A lot

you have so many good poasts in this thread. Stated much more eloquently than I could ever attempt to do. Much respekt
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Old 06-19-2017, 11:08 AM   #19068
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
You don't know that $1000 being racked up is a win either

Can't count how many times I have been inadvertently needles by the cashier saying something like "Looks like you had a good day" as I cash out 3 racks and am still stuck
This is the worst feeling. What happens to me is that I'm sitting with $800 in my 1/2 (deepstack) game, someone says something like "Looks like you're doing really well" when in reality I'm stuck $500.
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Old 06-19-2017, 01:43 PM   #19069
gobbledygeek
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Re: Not sure what I'm doing wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
First and foremost you have a very small sample so it's essentially meaningless.

However I want to address the psychological part here.

In a poker room, you are bombarded with results oriented madness. Someone will ALWAYS be racking up 400bbs in a night. Someone will ALWAYS get there with their horrible spew. Someone will ALWAYS successfully spazz bluff in a terrible spot. Just a few weeks ago a whale playing BLIND in plo racked up $3K in a 1/2 game.

It's frustrating, but just keep grinding. Your $100-300 dollar wins add up huge over time.

I've had similar thoughts as you since I've started playing poker, and yet I'm only one of a few regulars that is still around. The guys who seemed to always be racking up stacks have burned out long ago. (And / or simply moved on, but I think it's mostly the former)
+1, all of this

Also, don't scoff at $15/hr at 1/3 NL. Given the downward trending conditions in my room, I would have snap accepted $15/hr going into 2017 (and I'm a lifetime $22.20/hr); currently sitting at $12.70/hr for the year, and frankly totally ok with it.

Also, it is *not* easy to win 300bbs+. I went 13 months between having a 300bb win, then booked 7 of them last year (in 64 sessions), but haven't had a single one yet this year (in 41 sessions). Course, this will depend on your playing style, but also just plain ol' variance.

Gmostofpokerisprobablyjusttreadingwaterwaitingfort heturngoodG
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Old 06-20-2017, 08:57 AM   #19070
Avaritia
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Re: Not sure what I'm doing wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
+ A lot

you have so many good poasts in this thread. Stated much more eloquently than I could ever attempt to do. Much respekt


Bruh ur posts have the real eloquence bc you speak teh truth when no one else will. Ur and DGAFs posts helped me alot when I was temporarily playing poker for a living.
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Old 06-20-2017, 12:41 PM   #19071
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Conversation about super sessions spurred me to look a little deeper into my data.


YTD
33 out of 46 sessions are winning
405 hours for average 8.8 per session
BB hr 7.91
Biggest win in BBs 992
Biggest loss in BBs 553

Winning sessions
13 less than 100 bbs
8 between 100 and 200 BBs
9 between 200 and 300
1 between 300 and 400
1 between 600 and 700
1 at 992

Losing sessions
5 between 200 and 300bbs
3 between 300 and 400
1 at 553
4 less than 100 bbs

Last year I played 892 hours, went 62 out of 105 sessions for average session length of 8.5, and win rate of 8.4bb per hour.

Over all lots of big winning and losing sessions, probably combination of style, game conditions and long average session length.

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Old 06-20-2017, 02:00 PM   #19072
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Too bad PokerJournal doesn't have a filter that could break out that type of info. I might have to add it to my Excel spreadsheet and see what I come up with (although I like the yearly breakdowns as game conditions change and I think it would be difficult to add that to mine).

GcluelessstatsnoobG
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Old 06-20-2017, 02:24 PM   #19073
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Too bad PokerJournal doesn't have a filter that could break out that type of info. I might have to add it to my Excel spreadsheet and see what I come up with (although I like the yearly breakdowns as game conditions change and I think it would be difficult to add that to mine).

GcluelessstatsnoobG
I use poker income to track. Had to export to excel and play with the data to break out that way, which is why I only did it in detail for YTD and just eyeballed individual sessions for last year.

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Old 06-20-2017, 04:26 PM   #19074
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
You don't know that $1000 being racked up is a win either

Can't count how many times I have been inadvertently needles by the cashier saying something like "Looks like you had a good day" as I cash out 3 racks and am still stuck
LOL this so much.

It happens in the game too bcuz you can match 100% of bigstack and new players who sit down comment on it, not knowing I'm in for twice as much.
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Old 06-20-2017, 04:40 PM   #19075
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
You don't know that $1000 being racked up is a win either

Can't count how many times I have been inadvertently needles by the cashier saying something like "Looks like you had a good day" as I cash out 3 racks and am still stuck
Add me to group loving this post. Most games I play are capped. I always buy 3x cap from cage before my session and pull chips out of my pocket anytime I'm $25 or more less than cap.

Wish there was an auto top off button for live poker 😎

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