I have to agree with this. GG has mentioned numerous times that you cant count on win rates over time because when he breaks his playing hours into groups, his win rate has gotten worse in the latter groups. I think he used groups of 1000 hrs

I think its very probably that his player pool has figured out his game and just no longer pays him off like they once did. When this happens its time to open up your game, not tighten up even more.

Can say with some certainty I would win the battle of bad backs here. Won't go into details but I am now just simply pushing off surgery until I have to do so.

With that said, one of the best things you can do for yourself is get involved in a yoga program of some sort. I started one last summer and it has been life changing for me. It has reduced my pain significantly and improved my posture.

As a post-surgery back guy, I think I can say...

Please stay on topic. Back pain issues belong in the chat thread.

Affects winrates.

It does. And discussing session length, effect of pain on concentration, etc. is fine. But now we've gone off on a tangent away from winrates.

No worries, constructive feedback always welcome.

I should have clarified a little more what I meant by "tightening up". Basically, lately I've more and more realized the affect of position, even at good tables, and how much more difficult it is to play and get paid off OOP. And yet I haven't changed my EP strategy of getting into hands with 55- and weak suited broadway hands / Axs. It's a hard habit to break, but I'm thinking at more difficult tables I should definitely be folding these hands in EP.

In position, I definitely agree I should be opening up against players who perceive me as nitty and have a fold button.

Our room is actually in an interesting transition right now. It has bounced back a little in terms of number of tables running and I can often sit at tables where ABC nit face-up is still the way to go. But I definitely have to keep my eyes open for the correct spots to deviate.

G/derailG

Yours and DK's winrates-start-to-suck-as-session-drags-on are still interesting.

Obviously can't ignore the bias of leaving early when up (which in DK's case really seems to skew his short sessions given how outrageous his winrate is) / chasing when stuck, but still. The fact that you are ~breakeven at 5+ (over 1000 hours) and he's sucking at 7+ (although fairly lol 225 sample size) is still interesting.

Could still just be lol sample size?

Could it be deeper stack play (which I'm assuming is encountered far more often in later hours of a session than earlier hours?) isn't a forte? FYI: I've long ago come to the conclusion that deepstack play does not fit my skillset *at all*, and yet I know many consider deepstack play the be all / end all of crushing winrates (which may be true and therefore will be difficult for me to achieve unless I improve at it).

Is it some sorta tilt issue? I'd like to think I have fairly good tilt control, which is perhaps why I don't seem to have the same giraffe as you guys, and just play my same game at the 2 hour mark as I do at the 10 hour mark regardless of how things are going (at least, I'd like to think that?).

Overall, my guess is it mainly comes down to the bias of you guys are leaving early when up and chasing when stuck.

Gseeyouinanother2000hourswhenyouhavethenon-biasdata,lolG

I usually disagree with most of what Mike says, but this is 100% spot on. I play in a small pool of local/home games where everyone knows each other, and I'm forced to open my game up to get action, while the times I go to the casino I can play tighter and get paid instead. Sounds exactly like what GG is going through. (Side note, having a really well defined image that you can exploit is massively +EV if you know what you're doing. Bluffing when everyone thinks you're a nit is easy.)

It's been a while since I read your strategy, but I'd mention that *raising* from EP with some of those speculative hands can be profitable if they think you're a nit. They'll give you credit for a bigger hand than you have, and you'll have a lot more FE than you would otherwise. Then you still have the potential to make a big hand sometimes.

How many tables run and what do your game selection options look like? One of my biggest leaks is sitting in games that are bad (for various reasons) because there aren't any other tables open in the room, or open seats. The WR benefit of simply walking away is under-rated. We can fold hands easily, but don't fold tables often enough.

The <=1 hr sessions in my sample are when I moved stakes, I don't think I've ever played just one hour in a day. So it's actually a bit misleading. I should probably aggregate sessions from the same day.

Most of the winnings there actually come from briefly playing juicy shorthanded 5/T in the morning with degens who played overnight, before the table either breaks or I flee to 2/5 as the pros start their shifts.

Right, those are mine as well.

So perhaps there is actually little bias in the 1-3 hour samples, as they are all objective timeframes. If in fact wr noticeably goes down fromy 1 to 2 to 3 there is your correlation. That a bright and fresh DK gets a bit more EV then the crusty haggard one. Which obv makes sense, just interesting how dramatic the decline is.

It's been a while since I looked, but I think most of my sessions < 1 hr are losses. The times I get in and coolered quickly for 2+BI in an hour I've gotten up and left. The other sessions I'd expect are marginal +-$20 things where nothing of note happened and I had to leave for some other reason. Never double/tripled up in 20 mins and thought "time to go home", just started picking targets to get more chips from.

At most tables I sit at, there is absolutely no reason to get out-of-line in EP/MP preflop, especially when you have zero indication who / how many have a hand they'd like to see a flop with and we'll be playing OOP postflop. LP is obviously a completely different story and is very situational. IMO.

If I had big winrate leak, it would be not walking away from bad games, and it's no coincidence by far my worse poker year was 2015 (where my room often only had a single table running which was often fairly meh). I'm ok with this winrate sacrifice because the enjoyment of playing poker trumps this, and so I make the most of my ~single session per week (playing to my maximum allotted time pretty much every time). I still always do my best to sit at the best table in the room if there obviously is a best table (typically choosing between ~4 tables); just get your name on a table change list when you feel your table has changed for the worse and do you best to get to a better table ASAP, imo.

GcluelesswinratesnoobG

I find this discussion about session length coralating to win rate interesting. My average session length over 2k hours is 8.6hrs.

A lot of my biggest per hour sessions skew towards sessions significantly longer than average for me.

Although I have trouble putting together quantifiable data to back this up, my opinion is that this has a lot to do with my image at the table in those sessions.

I Firmly believe that in at least the games I play, if I have a mountain of chips in front of me my average appoinents​ play differently (worse) against me. Doesn't seem to matter much if I'm really playing above the rim or running like God, it is appoinents perception of me that matters.

Image matters a lot. Often takes time to build a winning one in a session, so when my image is good I want to play as long as I can.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

Are you usually playing with complete unknowns?

Gnotsureifsessionimagemattersthatmuchinaregfilledr oomG

A mixture. Though honestly even out those that I've played with a decent about, only a small fraction seem to develop a perception of me based on more than one session.



Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

Good thing you prefaced your statement. We wouldnt want everyone treating you like a leper

Takes early lead for best post 2017

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

I've finally reached (almost) 500 hours logged live and here are my results. It's a mix of 1-2, 1-3, and 2-5 going back to January of 2016. I didn't play poker from last March - Sept due to a pesky day job taking all of my time.

I was never completely happy with any of the commercial live tracking apps (and I'd rather poke out my eye with a sharp stick than rely only on excel), so the plots are from my own tracking utility I coded in matlab, which I have installed on my home pc. It makes it reeeeally easy to filter my results however I want (by date, hours, stakes, venue, etc) as well as run whatever stats I want.

The final cumulative win rate is over 13 BBs/hr, but yeah I know it doesn't mean much due to small sample size. If my "true" win rate is even half that, I feel I'm doing okay.

I found it extremely odd ur capable of coding ur own tracking utility, but u don't know how to do something as easy as filter results in Excel. So many easy ways to do it.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

Of course I can do it in excel, but I strongly prefer matlab. I already had it installed for other reasons, and it's a more powerful and flexible tool imo. YMMV.

Yo Bluesbass

killin poker @ 13 bigs per hr
day job
500 hrs in a little over a year

Well done sir!

Once you know a couple of programming languages, or have some MATLAB experience, clicking buttons and cells and using archaic reference structures in Excel is like chinese water torture.

I use an online tracker to store/enter my results, and post-process for more detail in Matlab too.

Don't u need like a million gigs of ram and a billion quad core processors to run that Matlab?

Sent from my SM-G935T using Tapatalk

No, not unless you are using it to perform some intensive numerical analyses. In that case it's more a function of the application rather than running matlab itself.

MATLAB system requirements