So take out the promo data that's been accumulated when the promo ends when estimating our EV from sitting down. This is a reason to keep track of promo winnings separately, but not a reason to ignore them as a factor of our EV.

Just like when tracking our win-rate, we need a significant sample size before having a good idea how much EV we get out of a promo. Obviously when we have a small sample size and we hit more than our fair share of high hands we take the resulting promo win-rate with a grain of salt. Because of the sample size issue I wouldn't count the BBJ as part of my EV, as the variance is so high that no one will ever live long enough to get an accurate measure of their EV, and the utility we get back from the BBJ drop is nearly zero.

I don't really know, but I suspect that promotions like HH occur often enough for results to converge to the actual EV from the promo for a full-time player. It probably depends a lot on the particular promotion. One of my local rooms has a straight flush bonus. In 530 hours of live poker I have never had a straight flush, so I probably wouldn't track this if I won it.

Edit: Yes I realize I'd backpedaled a little bit, so don't bother calling me out for it.

I didn't say to ignore it, just that you need to be very meticulous if you want to use it in future expectation.

No you don't. It is as simple as figuring out what the prize is and your equity of getting it.

Grain of salt is the problem, because you don't know whether you're hitting it at a rate above EV or below EV...thus it becomes meaningless in calculation.

See above.

Well, I do know, because I actually calculated it.

Figure out the odds of hitting a straight flush, number of hands you are dealt per hour, the prize of hitting one (and you have to consider how it fluctuates), then you can add it to your hourly WR EV. But I suspect it is so small that it doesn't matter, and hence whenever someone does hit one, adding the raw value of the prize skews the EV.

Oh I just did.

There's probably a lot more value in exploiting the mope that's chasing with any two suited cards than there is in hitting any of the promotion money ourselves anyway.

Very true, especially when these mopes are playing to get to SD with their "big" hands.

And this part of +EV is very difficult to calculate, making the whole factoring your promotions into future expectation a difficult thing to do accurately.

Your gut isn't right or wrong. Your # is whatever you want it to be. Serious question...why do you care/think it matters?

It is part of the application to be in a poker house.

Very true.

I tend to use promotions as a tie breaker when deciding where to play. The player pools in the 3 casinos in town are pretty comparable on the weekend, so I'll go where the jackpot is highest. (Although a lot of times "where to I want to go for diner later" takes a higher priority.)

Well when they drop $1 jackpot on every hand how much does that effect you yearly on a large sample size of hrs say 1k+? I mean if you played a game with no jackpot drop wouldn't you expect to have x amount more after those same hours? I'm not talking about putting bbj in there but if you win a couple thousand at 2/5 from say high hands over 1500 hrs aren't you essentially making up for the extra "rake". If you played that same game all a sudden with no jackpot drop your win rate would be higher period.

Ultimately any professional player would rather play in a game with no jackpot drop. Why? Because theoretically you should have a higher winrate no? So when you do play in jackpot drop games they are naturally going to lower your winrate just like regular rake does through no fault of your own. So why would adding some added jackpots give you a "fake winrate" when all its essentially doing is putting it where it most likely would of been without a drop. Is your skill as a player different because there is a drop compared to not? Obviously not

I see your crystal ball is functioning optimally.

And then it happens anyway

Oh, hai!

Clearly yes, and you can also argue the other form of rake/drop that rhymes with bip!

Not entirely true, as we have briefly mentioned the notion that jackpot brings in players, bad ones.

It's more complex than that, and most importantly, most players have no choice whether they want to play in a room with jackpot drop or not.

And I don't know why people so insist on looking at things in black and white: add jackpot or don't add it, real or fake WR, drop or no drop, and so forth, and yet not exactly meticulous about the qualifiers...

If you want to draw a big circle and include bunch of things, then you should probably know that a lot of those things can probably be outside of the circle as well.

We're gonna need a bigger circle.

You seem like a guy who needs 3 tries to draw a small circle, so leave the big circle job to someone with steadier hands.

Ran super bad. Had quads over quads lose in a casino with no jackpot drop. Eff cherokee.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using 2+2 Forums

I know my role. I point out what we need. I don't provide it.

It wouldn't be the first time Indians got in the way of the white mans agenda.

Your winrate could be higher playing with the drop if you play at certain times when the are giving away the most money. Splash pots during sports games or graveyard high hands you are getting a higher percentage of the money per hour that guys who play at times when their are limited promos.

personally I like playing with people who like high hand promos.

I don't personally like having to hit some ridiculously long hand then hang around hoping it holds up just to get some of my money back from the extra $1 promo drop.

But a lot of fun players like the concept... So it goes.

Well if it is just one table you are 11% to win so it is worth $11 an hour, and you aren't winning 11 pots.

So you avoid playing this room the rest of the time I presume?

Definitely try to play more when promos are good, but playing in good games is the most important thing still. Graveyard games are usually good anyway though especially if shorthanded and mostly fish.

In other words, expect to run into more 2p hands when v has 36s, 47s, 58s, etc etc?

I figure it like this, at least if their is multiple options available. There isn't for me.

Promos are good. The more the merrier.

Higher comps are bad.

No explanation should be needed.

I'm truly offended by this disgusting nonsense. You're better than that man.