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Old 03-08-2016, 12:55 PM   #14001
Richard Parker
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

WR is like how much you can bench in high school...
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Old 03-08-2016, 01:08 PM   #14002
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Sandbag View Post
Super easy to use common sense here lol. Non-promo WR is for future expectation and WR w/ promo is for past results. If you want to tell yourself you make more in-game than you actually do, have at it. It's not like it's super difficult to calculate both and analyze the difference.
If it's a regular promo like HH or Aces cracked or a SF/royal bonus, etc. then it should be included to reflect future expectation. It is part of your EV from playing poker.
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Old 03-08-2016, 01:16 PM   #14003
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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WR is like how much you can bench in high school...

Except my WR much higher than my bench press
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Old 03-08-2016, 01:17 PM   #14004
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Most apps have a place to make bankroll entries with a note or catagory. It goes there with "promo" IMO. Alternatively create a special game or location that can be filtered out. But otherwise.... Whatever makes you feel good.
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Old 03-08-2016, 01:24 PM   #14005
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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If it's a regular promo like HH or Aces cracked or a SF/royal bonus, etc. then it should be included to reflect future expectation. It is part of your EV from playing poker.
Ok, now I see words that make me buzz!

If future expectation is what you are after, then it makes far more sense not to add any of the promos for few obvious reasons:

1. Most promos aren't forever, so if you add promo winning now and the same promo is gone tomorrow, then your future expectation is skewed.

2. Actual promo winning does not account for the odds in which you get it. Say the promo is HH for $200/hr, and you hit one and added it to your WR, does that mean your future expectation should always include hitting a $200 HH? If so, at what frequency?

3. Most players vary their plays because of promotions and that affects EV of the hand. Some players begin to chase HH when there are few minutes left and the qualifier is low. Some people walk into certain rooms only to chase promo. Some players even play lowest stake limit game to try to hit HH...smh. If you are one of these "some" players, then your future expectation is skewed because you actually play differently depending on the promo.

Bottom line, when you start to factoring promo in your WR, your future expectation will be skewed.
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Old 03-08-2016, 01:25 PM   #14006
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Except my WR much higher than my bench press
You can't bench 20 beanie babies back in high school? God, why do I even talk to a wimp?
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Old 03-08-2016, 01:49 PM   #14007
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Ok, now I see words that make me buzz!

If future expectation is what you are after, then it makes far more sense not to add any of the promos for few obvious reasons:

1. Most promos aren't forever, so if you add promo winning now and the same promo is gone tomorrow, then your future expectation is skewed.
So take out the promo data that's been accumulated when the promo ends when estimating our EV from sitting down. This is a reason to keep track of promo winnings separately, but not a reason to ignore them as a factor of our EV.

Quote:
2. Actual promo winning does not account for the odds in which you get it. Say the promo is HH for $200/hr, and you hit one and added it to your WR, does that mean your future expectation should always include hitting a $200 HH? If so, at what frequency?
Just like when tracking our win-rate, we need a significant sample size before having a good idea how much EV we get out of a promo. Obviously when we have a small sample size and we hit more than our fair share of high hands we take the resulting promo win-rate with a grain of salt. Because of the sample size issue I wouldn't count the BBJ as part of my EV, as the variance is so high that no one will ever live long enough to get an accurate measure of their EV, and the utility we get back from the BBJ drop is nearly zero.

I don't really know, but I suspect that promotions like HH occur often enough for results to converge to the actual EV from the promo for a full-time player. It probably depends a lot on the particular promotion. One of my local rooms has a straight flush bonus. In 530 hours of live poker I have never had a straight flush, so I probably wouldn't track this if I won it.

Edit: Yes I realize I'd backpedaled a little bit, so don't bother calling me out for it.
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Old 03-08-2016, 02:03 PM   #14008
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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So take out the promo data that's been accumulated when the promo ends when estimating our EV from sitting down. This is a reason to keep track of promo winnings separately, but not a reason to ignore them as a factor of our EV.
I didn't say to ignore it, just that you need to be very meticulous if you want to use it in future expectation.

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Just like when tracking our win-rate, we need a significant sample size before having a good idea how much EV we get out of a promo.
No you don't. It is as simple as figuring out what the prize is and your equity of getting it.

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Obviously when we have a small sample size and we hit more than our fair share of high hands we take the resulting promo win-rate with a grain of salt.
Grain of salt is the problem, because you don't know whether you're hitting it at a rate above EV or below EV...thus it becomes meaningless in calculation.

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Because of the sample size issue I wouldn't count the BBJ as part of my EV, as the variance is so high that no one will ever live long enough to get an accurate measure of their EV, and the utility we get back from the BBJ drop is nearly zero.
See above.

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I don't really know, but I suspect that promotions like HH occur often enough for results to converge to the actual EV from the promo for a full-time player.
Well, I do know, because I actually calculated it.

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
It probably depends a lot on the particular promotion. One of my local rooms has a straight flush bonus. In 530 hours of live poker I have never had a straight flush, so I probably wouldn't track this if I won it.
Figure out the odds of hitting a straight flush, number of hands you are dealt per hour, the prize of hitting one (and you have to consider how it fluctuates), then you can add it to your hourly WR EV. But I suspect it is so small that it doesn't matter, and hence whenever someone does hit one, adding the raw value of the prize skews the EV.

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Edit: Yes I realize I'd backpedaled a little bit, so don't bother calling me out for it.
Oh I just did.
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Old 03-08-2016, 02:14 PM   #14009
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Figure out the odds of hitting a straight flush, number of hands you are dealt per hour, the prize of hitting one (and you have to consider how it fluctuates), then you can add it to your hourly WR EV. But I suspect it is so small that it doesn't matter, and hence whenever someone does hit one, adding the raw value of the prize skews the EV.
There's probably a lot more value in exploiting the mope that's chasing with any two suited cards than there is in hitting any of the promotion money ourselves anyway.
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Old 03-08-2016, 02:20 PM   #14010
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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There's probably a lot more value in exploiting the mope that's chasing with any two suited cards than there is in hitting any of the promotion money ourselves anyway.
Very true, especially when these mopes are playing to get to SD with their "big" hands.

And this part of +EV is very difficult to calculate, making the whole factoring your promotions into future expectation a difficult thing to do accurately.
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Old 03-08-2016, 02:32 PM   #14011
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k View Post
Casino giving away money to players who play the most hours every week.

Do I count that in my win rate? Sure this has been discussed before. I mean, I have to play the hours to get the bonus. Not like a high hand or bad beat that is based on luck.

My gut says this counts and HH and BB do not.
Your gut isn't right or wrong. Your # is whatever you want it to be. Serious question...why do you care/think it matters?
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Old 03-08-2016, 02:37 PM   #14012
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

It is part of the application to be in a poker house.
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Old 03-08-2016, 03:06 PM   #14013
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Very true, especially when these mopes are playing to get to SD with their "big" hands.

And this part of +EV is very difficult to calculate, making the whole factoring your promotions into future expectation a difficult thing to do accurately.
Very true.

I tend to use promotions as a tie breaker when deciding where to play. The player pools in the 3 casinos in town are pretty comparable on the weekend, so I'll go where the jackpot is highest. (Although a lot of times "where to I want to go for diner later" takes a higher priority.)
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Old 03-08-2016, 03:24 PM   #14014
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Well when they drop $1 jackpot on every hand how much does that effect you yearly on a large sample size of hrs say 1k+? I mean if you played a game with no jackpot drop wouldn't you expect to have x amount more after those same hours? I'm not talking about putting bbj in there but if you win a couple thousand at 2/5 from say high hands over 1500 hrs aren't you essentially making up for the extra "rake". If you played that same game all a sudden with no jackpot drop your win rate would be higher period.

Ultimately any professional player would rather play in a game with no jackpot drop. Why? Because theoretically you should have a higher winrate no? So when you do play in jackpot drop games they are naturally going to lower your winrate just like regular rake does through no fault of your own. So why would adding some added jackpots give you a "fake winrate" when all its essentially doing is putting it where it most likely would of been without a drop. Is your skill as a player different because there is a drop compared to not? Obviously not

Last edited by FiGMan; 03-08-2016 at 03:33 PM.
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Old 03-08-2016, 03:41 PM   #14015
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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well I think we should prolly have everyone weigh in...and debate this issue for multiple pages as it is paramount in determining blah blah blah blah wall of text no i am smarter no u I was testing to see just how stoopid u are...etc etc
I see your crystal ball is functioning optimally.
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Old 03-08-2016, 03:45 PM   #14016
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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well I think we should prolly have everyone weigh in...and debate this issue for multiple pages as it is paramount in determining blah blah blah blah wall of text no i am smarter no u I was testing to see just how stoopid u are...etc etc

And then it happens anyway
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Old 03-08-2016, 03:47 PM   #14017
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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I see your crystal ball is functioning optimally.

Oh, hai!
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Old 03-08-2016, 03:54 PM   #14018
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Well when they drop $1 jackpot on every hand how much does that effect you yearly on a large sample size of hrs say 1k+? I mean if you played a game with no jackpot drop wouldn't you expect to have x amount more after those same hours? I'm not talking about putting bbj in there but if you win a couple thousand at 2/5 from say high hands over 1500 hrs aren't you essentially making up for the extra "rake". If you played that same game all a sudden with no jackpot drop your win rate would be higher period.
Clearly yes, and you can also argue the other form of rake/drop that rhymes with bip!

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Ultimately any professional player would rather play in a game with no jackpot drop. Why? Because theoretically you should have a higher winrate no?
Not entirely true, as we have briefly mentioned the notion that jackpot brings in players, bad ones.

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Originally Posted by FiGMan View Post
So when you do play in jackpot drop games they are naturally going to lower your winrate just like regular rake does through no fault of your own. So why would adding some added jackpots give you a "fake winrate" when all its essentially doing is putting it where it most likely would of been without a drop. Is your skill as a player different because there is a drop compared to not? Obviously not
It's more complex than that, and most importantly, most players have no choice whether they want to play in a room with jackpot drop or not.

And I don't know why people so insist on looking at things in black and white: add jackpot or don't add it, real or fake WR, drop or no drop, and so forth, and yet not exactly meticulous about the qualifiers...

If you want to draw a big circle and include bunch of things, then you should probably know that a lot of those things can probably be outside of the circle as well.
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Old 03-08-2016, 03:57 PM   #14019
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Clearly yes, and you can also argue the other form of rake/drop that rhymes with bip!



Not entirely true, as we have briefly mentioned the notion that jackpot brings in players, bad ones.



It's more complex than that, and most importantly, most players have no choice whether they want to play in a room with jackpot drop or not.

And I don't know why people so insist on looking at things in black and white: add jackpot or don't add it, real or fake WR, drop or no drop, and so forth, and yet not exactly meticulous about the qualifiers...

If you want to draw a big circle and include bunch of things, then you should probably know that a lot of those things can probably be outside of the circle as well.
We're gonna need a bigger circle.
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Old 03-08-2016, 03:59 PM   #14020
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

You seem like a guy who needs 3 tries to draw a small circle, so leave the big circle job to someone with steadier hands.
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Old 03-08-2016, 04:30 PM   #14021
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Ran super bad. Had quads over quads lose in a casino with no jackpot drop. Eff cherokee.

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Old 03-08-2016, 04:48 PM   #14022
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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You seem like a guy who needs 3 tries to draw a small circle, so leave the big circle job to someone with steadier hands.
I know my role. I point out what we need. I don't provide it.
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Old 03-08-2016, 04:51 PM   #14023
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Ran super bad. Had quads over quads lose in a casino with no jackpot drop. Eff cherokee.

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It wouldn't be the first time Indians got in the way of the white mans agenda.
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Old 03-08-2016, 04:53 PM   #14024
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by FiGMan View Post
Well when they drop $1 jackpot on every hand how much does that effect you yearly on a large sample size of hrs say 1k+? I mean if you played a game with no jackpot drop wouldn't you expect to have x amount more after those same hours? I'm not talking about putting bbj in there but if you win a couple thousand at 2/5 from say high hands over 1500 hrs aren't you essentially making up for the extra "rake". If you played that same game all a sudden with no jackpot drop your win rate would be higher period.

Ultimately any professional player would rather play in a game with no jackpot drop. Why? Because theoretically you should have a higher winrate no? So when you do play in jackpot drop games they are naturally going to lower your winrate just like regular rake does through no fault of your own. So why would adding some added jackpots give you a "fake winrate" when all its essentially doing is putting it where it most likely would of been without a drop. Is your skill as a player different because there is a drop compared to not? Obviously not
Your winrate could be higher playing with the drop if you play at certain times when the are giving away the most money. Splash pots during sports games or graveyard high hands you are getting a higher percentage of the money per hour that guys who play at times when their are limited promos.
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Old 03-08-2016, 06:05 PM   #14025
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Your winrate could be higher playing with the drop if you play at certain times when the are giving away the most money. Splash pots during sports games or graveyard high hands you are getting a higher percentage of the money per hour that guys who play at times when their are limited promos.

personally I like playing with people who like high hand promos.

I don't personally like having to hit some ridiculously long hand then hang around hoping it holds up just to get some of my money back from the extra $1 promo drop.

But a lot of fun players like the concept... So it goes.
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