Quote:
Originally Posted by boltyou
Hey guys, I need a sanity check before going forward with my plan.
Recently, I got laid off from my job. Meh, happens. My wife's got a reasonable income, and we have insurance, and could probably live solely off her income, although it would take some lifestyle adjustments (her annual income is around $60k).
However, given that I don't plan to leech off her income for the rest of our lives, I'm thinking about playing poker full-time. However, having a wife and living expenses that would cover everything is a nice safety
net.
I've been playing $1/$2 for a while (about 500 hours) and my win rate is around 8bb/hr. Due to being busy with my previous job, I have been unable to play on any Friday or Saturday nights; all of this is weekday play.
However, when I've taken shots at $2/$5, I've found that:
1 - The worst players are still just as bad.
2 - The worst players are willing to buy in for full and have no problem losing their money; I've found that there's a lot less scared money by the fish. The scared money is usually at the $1/$2 tables.
3 - The best players are much, much better at $2/$5.
4 - The rake is the same at $2/$5.
I've been thinking of moving up to $2/$5 full-time, given the following assumptions:
$15k bankroll (30 buyins) is sufficient.
I can beat the $2/$5 for 5bb/hr, especially if I can play Friday/Saturdays, which I had not previously been able to do.
500 hours, while not a huge sample size, gives me a rough idea if I'm a winning or losing player, and adjusting downwards of 3bb/hr is a realistic adjustment.
I will not improve my win rate over time.
I've read every post in this thread and I've tried to get a sense of what people are making, it's hard to know how many hours people are playing per week and if I'm looking at the top 3% of winners. Few people are coming in and saying, "Well, I'm breaking even after two years of play," even though I'm pretty sure there are tons of those people out there, too.
Is this a pie-in-the-sky dream? I'm basically projecting my financial situation based on these assumptions. Right now, I'm playing poker while I look for another job so at the moment I'm not losing out on income while I look, but playing full-time is certainly very appealing to me. I'm trying to be conservative, while also being realistic (the last assumption that my win rate will not improve reflects that; hopefully I do improve, but I'm not even factoring that in. Any higher win rate would be a freeroll if I look at it this way).
If you think I'm being crazy/unrealistic about any of this, please let me know. I'm mostly worried about my sample size, honestly. 500 hours seems a bit low, but good god it's hard to beat that rake and I'd like to move out of the stakes where that's less of a factor if I'm rolled for it (which I think I am).
i have been playing/coaching for a living for a little over 4 years now both live and online - hear are a few thoughts that come to mind for you to consider
i went "pro" when i got laid off too but i was already making more with poker than my job so it wasn't too hard
30 buyins might be OK as long as you have at least 1 year of living expenses in addition to your 15K
i like to take my "real winrate" to determine risk of ruin and determine needed BR. i figure my monthly nut, number of hours played and back that out of my actual WR(ie i make 60/hour but i know i will be spending half of that money on my bills so i use 30/hour as my WR for BR management decisions/calculations)
your spending(BR depletion) is a HUGE factor that most get wrong!
since i am on the BR issue - WR and spend rate are the critical factors so always work to improve your WR and control your expenses
grinding 40/hr per week is not the same as playing poker 10-15 hours per week - more stress, more sitting on your ass eating crap food, more exposure to germs, more nights away from wifey ... pickup a copy of Stress for Success by Loehr to help with this issue
don't ever lend money to poker players/gamblers!
on the sample size - since you don't have one you have to know why you are winning. if you understand why you are beating the game, see others mistakes, and keep working to improve your game you can feel confident that you are a winning player - all of this takes brutal self honest which isn't easy
can it be done - yes
is it worth doing - ?
Poker is the best part-time job but doing if full time is completely different
GL on the felt