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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

02-13-2016 , 12:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie
This is very good stuff, BTW.
+1 - no "good" players ever buy-in for less than max at LLSNL...
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 02:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by t_roy
Huh? Why straddle? You get in the same effective position by just limping.
Good point. What a fish!
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 04:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowball2
That's a frequently used reason, but really incorrect.

Your hypothetical 3bb/hr is based on certain stacks in play (eg, it's well-accepted that in general your win rate goes up, the deeper the fish's stack is ), but what you don't realize is, when you double the blinds, you don't double the stacks in play. Where is the extra money coming from?

Really simplified example: your win rate of 3bb/hour comes mostly from stacking a fish's 100bb stack. When you double the blinds, the fish now has a 50bb stack - which means it's impossible to maintain your 3bb/hour rate at a higher $ bb as you suggested.

Also, you are assuming everyone still plays the same when the blinds are $10 instead of $5, which is simply not true.

Now let's say everyone's stack also increases proportionally to the big blind, then of course you win way more. That never happens in a capped game though.

I always advocate playing deeper (not like 1000bbs, but more than 40bbs ) because a pro's biggest edge is that fish stacks off incorrectly way too often. You want to pay as less to get them to pay as much as possible.
Yeah I was just giving a hypothetical. Of course in reality many of the factors would change. Still, I think it would be more profitable to increase the stakes for a sacrifice in winrate. I mean if you're doubling the stakes your winrate would have to be more than cut in half for the deeper game to be more profitable and I don't think the drop in winrate would be that drastic for most winning players. Also not everyone will see a winrate decrease. The regfish who have a decent preflop and flop game but suck at playing rivers would likely benefit from a shallower game. Or it can allow the loose aggro guys to run the table over because the bigger blinds makes most of the table scared money which makes them play more fit or fold on flops.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 05:54 AM
Problem is that we're all projecting our own game into this discussion.

Do players in 1/2 or 3/5 see 2bb straddle as cutting their effective stack down by half? Hell no.

Do players adjust to the idea that $100 pot is really the same as $50 pot? Hell no.

$100 pot is just $100 pot to typical LLSNL players and they adjust to increased blinds and size of pot by subconsciously playing even tighter. I won't lie, I do the same.

What does that mean in an already tight game? It means you get to steal fatter blinds pre flop and with cbet on the flop. Is it profitable? Hell yes. Is it high variance? Not really, because LLSNL players only know one adjustment when it comes to big pots: "big pots, big hand."

At end of the day, if your game is full of competent players and not typical LLSNL donks who are all winners in their own head, then straddling might not be the answer to create more actions, but for rest of posters who do play a lot of LLSNL, straddling is not a bad idea.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 11:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
Problem is that we're all projecting our own game into this discussion.

Do players in 1/2 or 3/5 see 2bb straddle as cutting their effective stack down by half? Hell no.

Do players adjust to the idea that $100 pot is really the same as $50 pot? Hell no.

$100 pot is just $100 pot to typical LLSNL players and they adjust to increased blinds and size of pot by subconsciously playing even tighter. I won't lie, I do the same.

What does that mean in an already tight game? It means you get to steal fatter blinds pre flop and with cbet on the flop. Is it profitable? Hell yes. Is it high variance? Not really, because LLSNL players only know one adjustment when it comes to big pots: "big pots, big hand."

At end of the day, if your game is full of competent players and not typical LLSNL donks who are all winners in their own head, then straddling might not be the answer to create more actions, but for rest of posters who do play a lot of LLSNL, straddling is not a bad idea.
If my table has a competent player it's usually because the floor hasn't allowed my table change yet.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 11:16 AM
Best player at my 2-5 table the other day thought he lost the hand with AA against 87 on 872,3,2 board.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 11:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
Problem is that we're all projecting our own game into this discussion.

Do players in 1/2 or 3/5 see 2bb straddle as cutting their effective stack down by half? Hell no.

Do players adjust to the idea that $100 pot is really the same as $50 pot? Hell no.

$100 pot is just $100 pot to typical LLSNL players and they adjust to increased blinds and size of pot by subconsciously playing even tighter. I won't lie, I do the same.

What does that mean in an already tight game? It means you get to steal fatter blinds pre flop and with cbet on the flop. Is it profitable? Hell yes. Is it high variance? Not really, because LLSNL players only know one adjustment when it comes to big pots: "big pots, big hand."

At end of the day, if your game is full of competent players and not typical LLSNL donks who are all winners in their own head, then straddling might not be the answer to create more actions, but for rest of posters who do play a lot of LLSNL, straddling is not a bad idea.
This is exactly right.

In my game, nothing changes except to make a bigger pot in $ terms. In a game where actual adjustments are made, it may not be good.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited fours
Best player at my 2-5 table the other day thought he lost the hand with AA against 87 on 872,3,2 board.
You must have had a few too many.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 01:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt
You must have had a few too many.
Good thing I tabled the hand, eh?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 01:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited fours
Best player at my 2-5 table the other day thought he lost the hand with AA against 87 on 872,3,2 board.
Where is your game?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kebabkungen
Where is your game?
I'm a poker nomad, this game was Tuesday afternoon, Hard Rock Hollywood, in lolFL.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 02:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
Problem is that we're all projecting our own game into this discussion.

Do players in 1/2 or 3/5 see 2bb straddle as cutting their effective stack down by half? Hell no.

Do players adjust to the idea that $100 pot is really the same as $50 pot? Hell no.

$100 pot is just $100 pot to typical LLSNL players and they adjust to increased blinds and size of pot by subconsciously playing even tighter. I won't lie, I do the same.

What does that mean in an already tight game? It means you get to steal fatter blinds pre flop and with cbet on the flop. Is it profitable? Hell yes. Is it high variance? Not really, because LLSNL players only know one adjustment when it comes to big pots: "big pots, big hand."

At end of the day, if your game is full of competent players and not typical LLSNL donks who are all winners in their own head, then straddling might not be the answer to create more actions, but for rest of posters who do play a lot of LLSNL, straddling is not a bad idea.
Think you are directed this at me because you somehow believe if the stakes are higher, the math magically changes.

Let me dumb it down for you with an extreme example, then it'll be easier to see:

1/2 game, $200 max buy in.

Mandatory straddle 50x, to $100, everyone has 2bbs to start.

What do you think happens to your win rate? Think about your range, paying blinds, implied odds, direct odds.

Is a 10bb/hr winner suddenly winning $1000/hour (10x$100) now? Is he even winning 1bb, or 0.1bb?

Last edited by Snowball2; 02-13-2016 at 02:33 PM.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 02:47 PM
^ Clearly there's a big difference between 2bb play and 50bb play. If you're going to give that extreme of an example then we have to do one for the other end as well. What about a game where the blinds are 25c/50c and everyone is 1000bbs deep vs a 2/5 game with everyone 100bbs deep? Are you saying the 25c/50c game will have a higher hourly?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 02:50 PM
That's a silly example because the game changes so drastically. 50bb and 100bb just changes the value of SCs and set mining mostly, 2bb you get into a very mathematical game that's easily GTO solvable, and most players would play waaay to tight. I guess win rate would be super high if you knew how to play this game optimally against randoms.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 02:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daniel9861
^ Clearly there's a big difference between 2bb play and 50bb play. If you're going to give that extreme of an example then we have to do one for the other end as well. What about a game where the blinds are 25c/50c and everyone is 1000bbs deep vs a 2/5 game with everyone 100bbs deep? Are you saying the 25c/50c game will have a higher hourly?
In terms of big blinds an hour.. obviously

(This is referring back to you saying if you win at 3bbx5 = $15/hr, you can win 3bbx$20=60/hr)

Furthermore, just to clarify, my problem isn't with bumping up the blinds, it's with stack depth where it becomes <50bbs in 100bb capped games. You lose a LOT of your edge as a cash player when it's reduced to a shove/fold game (like in a later stage of tournament) - and thats exactly what you said - "a big difference between" deeper and shallower play. Otherwise, i'm happy to straddle in a game where the eff stack is at least around 100bbs.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 03:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kebabkungen
That's a silly example because the game changes so drastically. 50bb and 100bb just changes the value of SCs and set mining mostly, 2bb you get into a very mathematical game that's easily GTO solvable, and most players would play waaay to tight. I guess win rate would be super high if you knew how to play this game optimally against randoms.
I don't think GTO means what you think it means.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22
I don't think GTO means what you think it means.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 03:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowball2
You lose a LOT of your edge as a cash player when it's reduced to a shove/fold game (like in a later stage of tournament) - and thats exactly what you said - "a big difference between" deeper and shallower play. Otherwise, i'm happy to straddle in a game where the eff stack is at least around 100bbs.
I disagree.

Have you ever watched a LLSNL donkament? Players routinely limp/fold 20% of their stacks and passively bleed away their stacks.

That's how LLSNL players adjust to straddle when the effective stacks are halved. If anything, the edge becomes greater against bunch of players who cannot adjust to a 50bb game.

And you have to remember what the original comparison was:

100bb bad game vs 50bb (straddle) game.

If people are playing too passively and folding too much, how could you consider raising the blinds a bad thing?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 04:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowball2
Think you are directed this at me because you somehow believe if the stakes are higher, the math magically changes.
No dude.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowball2
Let me dumb it down for you with an extreme example, then it'll be easier to see:

1/2 game, $200 max buy in.

Mandatory straddle 50x, to $100, everyone has 2bbs to start.

What do you think happens to your win rate? Think about your range, paying blinds, implied odds, direct odds.

Is a 10bb/hr winner suddenly winning $1000/hour (10x$100) now? Is he even winning 1bb, or 0.1bb?
Oh hey, thanks for speaking down to my level by dumbing it down.

Quote:
What do you think happens to your win rate? Think about your range, paying blinds, implied odds, direct odds.
Obviously at 2bb, there isn't any decision, and maybe that's why "good" players such as yourself stay away from any games less than 100bb, because maybe they all see them as 2bb game.

Hence I said earlier, good players don't play short games because they turn into calling station, the only way they know how to play short stacks.

Even at 50bb, LLSNL players don't adjust by doubling their bet or calling bigger pots with the same range, and that's where our edge is. If you don't get that, I can't dumb it down any further.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 04:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kebabkungen
That's a silly example because the game changes so drastically. 50bb and 100bb just changes the value of SCs and set mining mostly, 2bb you get into a very mathematical game that's easily GTO solvable, and most players would play waaay to tight.
Well, GTO doesn't mean highest profit...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kebabkungen
I guess win rate would be super high if you knew how to play this game optimally against randoms.
And win rate would never be super high in a 2bb effective stack game, the same reason why flipping coins isn't profitable.

But let me guess...

Spoiler:
Your mind is probably starting to wander into strategies in which you win once, get to 10bb, then risk 2bb and win another 10bb, then cash out or some random gibberish.

Nope, not the same context.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 04:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22
I don't think GTO means what you think it means.
I know what it means very well ty. a 2bb game is easily GTO solvable.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 04:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
Well, GTO doesn't mean highest profit...



And win rate would never be super high in a 2bb effective stack game, the same reason why flipping coins isn't profitable.

But let me guess...

Spoiler:
Your mind is probably starting to wander into strategies in which you win once, get to 10bb, then risk 2bb and win another 10bb, then cash out or some random gibberish.

Nope, not the same context.
People are likely to play this game completely wrong math wise.. Which leads to a high variance but likely also high win rate game over a big sample.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 04:35 PM
In your words, what does it mean to be GTO solvable?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 05:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
In your words, what does it mean to be GTO solvable?
Playing a style that is unexploitable. Tbh I'm not sure such a game is be GTO solvable, but isn't short stack tourney play up to like at least 20bb solved?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
02-13-2016 , 06:04 PM
Hello everyone!

I think I've posted in here before, but I'm back. I'm going to venture into the live poker scene soon here in the states. I've built up a $4k roll from a $200 deposit on Bovada exclusively for the 1/2 game. I'm ~5-6bb/100 winner at 100nl 6max.

My question is: how should I adjust my game for the live games? I've played live a few times and the players are just so bad. But it's been a few years.
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