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Old 01-20-2016, 11:56 AM   #12826
bip!
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Next time it folds to the small blind and he looks at me in the big blind and asks "Do you chop?". I am going to answer very seriously "No, you take it.. I can't stand the variance" and give him my big blind. (In honor of this thread)
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Old 01-20-2016, 11:57 AM   #12827
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Finally got my 2/5 WR back >$50/hr after ~330 hours. Binked +3500 last night.
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Old 01-20-2016, 12:01 PM   #12828
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Finally got my 2/5 WR back >$50/hr after ~330 hours. Binked +3500 last night.
Too much variance imo. *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Nice work, Johnny!
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Next time it folds to the small blind and he looks at me in the big blind and asks "Do you chop?". I am going to answer very seriously "No, you take it.. I can't stand the variance" and give him my big blind. (In honor of this thread)
Bip! Your new SN needs to be 'ifoldmybbtoreducevariance'
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Old 01-20-2016, 12:04 PM   #12829
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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If one read the entire thread, this would be "rediscovered" several hundred times throughout.

The very root of the arguments in this thread is a very common misunderstanding of what variance means. People use it as a substitute for "downswing" and from there the conversation is ****ed.

Another overlooked aspect.. if one is not a winning player, no amount of variance reduction will reduce downswings.
Exactly. All one needs to do is draw an x and y axis on a piece of paper and fill in an upward moving graph with downward spikes interspersed. There's the 'variance'. Yet if you connected all the upward spikes you'd notice the upward trend, i.e. the 'winrate'. I'm a stats fish and even I get it.
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Old 01-20-2016, 12:13 PM   #12830
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I use statistics often at work and it never occurred to me that people were using variance as a substitute for downswing ITT. It all makes perfect sense now.
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Old 01-20-2016, 12:18 PM   #12831
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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I use statistics often at work and it never occurred to me that people were using variance as a substitute for downswing ITT. It all makes perfect sense now.
wait 2 or 3 days and it will come back around again without fail

Spoiler:
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Old 01-20-2016, 12:35 PM   #12832
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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I use statistics often at work and it never occurred to me that people were using variance as a substitute for downswing ITT. It all makes perfect sense now.

Keep in mind their first introduction to the term was likely at a poker table, from another poker player talking about "variance" after taking a beat.

And previously misinformed people are much more defensive in an argument than uninformed people. So.. there you have the DNA of the WR thread.
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Old 01-20-2016, 12:39 PM   #12833
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Keep in mind their first introduction to the term was likely at a poker table, from another poker player talking about "variance" after taking a beat.

And previously misinformed people are much more defensive in an argument than uninformed people. So.. there you have the DNA of the WR thread.
bip! droppin the knowledge
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Old 01-20-2016, 12:57 PM   #12834
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Incoming theory, the closer you play to GTO the more variance you are going to have this is all about looking for that 51% and with it comes swings.
So further you play from GTO, the lower variance is?

Such notion is ridiculous, but you probably haven't thought of the flip side to your statement.

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The other option is to play exploitively this means putting yourself in spots that can be exploited by others and betting based on opponents tendencies, in hopes to receive additional value.
I do not think you fully understand what GTO means, and you really do not need to understand it in LLSNL.

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Chances are none of us are really the best at either strategy. But my point was thin value on GTO style can be a 51% vs 49% because you are ahead of your opponents range so you bet the river. Whereas exploitively a river bet for thin value could mean trying to get additional money on the river that other players would not have.

TLDR : thin value has multiple meanings.
Biggest nit in the world is at your table and in your thousands of hours playing with him, he has never once raised preflop without AA.

Random player comes to the table and it's his first time ever playing with this biggest nit. Biggest nit raises in MP, random looks down to see KK and re-raises AI.

Is random 3betting with KK a -EV play?

To you, it obviously is, but to him, it's hugely +EV.

The point of the example is that of course EV is different from player to player, because EV calculation relies on range assessment and everyone ranges differently based on several factors.

Definition of thin value never changes, simply means low +EV.

What you have in mind is a situation similar to my example, in which case, underlying variables of EV calculation change, and thin value is not thin value to someone with more information.

However, it still doesn't change the relationship between thin value and variance.

Last edited by Richard Parker; 01-20-2016 at 01:04 PM.
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Old 01-20-2016, 12:57 PM   #12835
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Keep in mind their first introduction to the term was likely at a poker table, from another poker player talking about "variance" after taking a beat.

And previously misinformed people are much more defensive in an argument than uninformed people. So.. there you have the DNA of the WR thread.
As an evolutionary biologist, I can state with 98% certainty that this thread has succumbed to inbreeding depression. About 34% of the variance can be apportioned to skip's "beauty"...ahem... "pageant."
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Old 01-20-2016, 12:58 PM   #12836
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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bip! droppin the knowledge
I guess Captain Obvious to some is General Knowledge to others.

Oh wait...what? LOL.
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Old 01-20-2016, 01:09 PM   #12837
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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As an evolutionary biologist,
loooooooooooooooooooooool
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Old 01-20-2016, 01:16 PM   #12838
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Also have a question

Is 2/2 with 150 max buy in, 10% rake and 10$ cap still beatable? If so; what would be a decent hourly, is 15+ even possible?

Casino really ****ed us over in the Netherlands
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Old 01-20-2016, 01:18 PM   #12839
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Also have a question

Is 2/2 with 150 max buy in, 10% rake and 10$ cap still beatable? If so; what would be a decent hourly, is 15+ even possible?

Casino really ****ed us over in the Netherlands

People beat even worse rake structures, so yes to beatable.

How beatable will get a ton of answers ITT... none of which matter. Go play it and report back.

( sorry - that sounds worse than I meant. GL)
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Old 01-20-2016, 01:20 PM   #12840
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I think 3/6 limit with $6 rake/tip/drop is beatable.

But I will not report back.
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Old 01-20-2016, 01:23 PM   #12841
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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People beat even worse rake structures, so yes to beatable.

How beatable will get a ton of answers ITT... none of which matter. Go play it and report back.

( sorry - that sounds worse than I meant. GL)
hehe alright thanks
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Old 01-20-2016, 01:24 PM   #12842
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Seared into my mind is the fact that GG beat 2/4 limit over a large sample.. such a good example of what is possible.
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Old 01-20-2016, 01:35 PM   #12843
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

FYI, if you play every hand with $100 starting stack and raise to $99 pre and fold on river, your variance will be 0.

#zerovarianceftw
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Old 01-20-2016, 01:36 PM   #12844
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Seared into my mind is the fact that GG beat 2/4 limit over a large sample.. such a good example of what is possible.
He did factor in the BB jackpot.
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Old 01-20-2016, 01:40 PM   #12845
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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As an evolutionary biologist, I can state with 98% certainty that this thread has succumbed to inbreeding depression. About 34% of the variance can be apportioned to skip's "beauty"...ahem... "pageant."
Daisy Duke shorts tho
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Old 01-20-2016, 01:48 PM   #12846
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Seared into my mind is the fact that GG beat 2/4 limit over a large sample.. such a good example of what is possible.
$1.94/hr over 1,353 hours at 2/4 Limit (obviously does not include my big BBJ win). *BUT* that was with a maximum rake of $3; having a rake of $4 would have made me ~breakeven over that period.

Plus, I probably just ran good.

Gjustoneman'sresults,butIdoubtslowstakesLimitgames arebeatableG
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Old 01-20-2016, 01:51 PM   #12847
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I did mean no limit btw

and sick ^
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Old 01-20-2016, 02:06 PM   #12848
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Keep in mind their first introduction to the term was likely at a poker table, from another poker player talking about "variance" after taking a beat.

And previously misinformed people are much more defensive in an argument than uninformed people. So.. there you have the DNA of the WR thread.
Yeah I don't fault them; it just never occurred to me exactly HOW it was being misunderstood--that variance is essentially thought of as just negative variance.

Variance is volatility. I am currently running like GOD and am up over 3k at 1/3 in my last 64 hours. This is positive variance. I highly recommend it.
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Old 01-20-2016, 02:10 PM   #12849
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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So further you play from GTO, the lower variance is?
The opposite of GTO I think would be folding every hand? Which has 0 variance.

But I agree with what you said in thin value and take back what I said
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Old 01-20-2016, 02:40 PM   #12850
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Don't worry about GTO.
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