Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
I think the specific words typed onto the screen have a lot more meaning than how many times a person has typed words onto said screen. You may think differently but I know lots of people who never STFU and still never say anything worth while. You can include most politicians in that list.
Ok, you're *clearly* missing the sample size joke, so here we go.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
This whole win rate discussion is useless. There are so many different styles of poker. Some come with incredible variance and some come with low variance. The super low variance style also comes with a low win rate because you are never pushing small edges, but you can win a high percentage of sessions if thats what you are trying to do. The high variance style may come with a higher win rate if you are good at it, but it will take you 10 times as many hours to know if you are really winning and its much harder to be good at this style. Somewhere in the middle is the proper merging of aggressiveness / variance and win rate, but there's no way of knowing exactly where that is especially when every table is different.
If the discussion is useless, why the hell are you here? Go somewhere else.
We know that higher variance and higher winrates go hand in hand, and that larger standard deviations require larger samples. Just because you're not good at "a style" doesn't mean that the right answer is to tone it down. Maybe, maybe not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
If you are constantly raising the flop all in with lots of draws and 4 betting all in preflop with AK, then your variance is going to be a hell of a lot higher than a set miner.
Yea, and?
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
All you can do is play YOUR style perfectly and not tilt away money, not try to bluff calling stations, not fold too easily to maniacs and things like that and see what happens.
So ... play poker. This has nothing to do with "style". Not tilting, or making other bonehead plays has nothing to do with how aggressive you are or should be.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
One last thing, if your win rate is high for an extended period of time, that doesnt mean its only because you are running hot. It may be because you are better than most other players and they cant accept that fact. There is no pokertracker for live play so nobody knows what anyone else is winning so dont act like you do. If someone posts that they are winning 15BB / hr and you are winning 7BB / hr they may actually be better than you and not just be on a heater.
Define "extended period of time".
6 months or a year may not be anywhere near long enough if your volume isn't high. But we can get a pretty good guess at hands from the number of hours, as in maybe about 30 hand/hr on average.
When analyzing an online database, people tell you you need *at least* 10,000 hands to draw a conclusion. So if your "extended period of time" is only 200 hours ... that's barely half what you'd need for a small sample.
So yes, telling people that their 85 hour sample isn't meaningful is completely fine and accurate ... it's not that "we can't accept the fact that other people are better".
There are a good number of larger samples around here, and most of the time those agree with the "that small sample is a heater" conclusions.
Finally, you claim that there are no live tracking methods (or is it that you just don't trust them?), but that I should just take some random poster's word that he's crushing a game? Sorry, but why should I do that again?