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Old 01-19-2016, 03:33 PM   #12776
Samball49
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
If you're a winner in this game, you are in a very rare minority. Don't undervalue that / take that for granted.

GgoodluckG
Thanks man.
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Old 01-19-2016, 04:01 PM   #12777
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

as gg said, you're a winner in the game. That's a great place to start. You can probably still improve a ton in your game and that's something you should seek to identify and then work on.
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Old 01-19-2016, 05:28 PM   #12778
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Pretty sure 9 posts is too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions about the quality of the content ... right?
I think the specific words typed onto the screen have a lot more meaning than how many times a person has typed words onto said screen. You may think differently but I know lots of people who never STFU and still never say anything worth while. You can include most politicians in that list.
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Old 01-19-2016, 06:14 PM   #12779
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by andees10 View Post
So never try to get better at poker, just sit at the table for more hours?
Depends what you want. If you want to be better at poker, improve at poker. If you don't want to live under a bridge, play more hours.

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Value betting thin will cause you to earn less because your volatility goes up?
You're not making less, the ratio of (dollars)/(volatility unit) decreases.

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Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
Calling down a big polarized river shove takes a certain amount of cajones. Not to mention, betting isn't always optimal. Maybe these guys who are "puss sissies" and are calling you down with top pair because you're too aggressive?
The decision is always between call and fold and raise is never considered. The guy last week who check/tank-called the 2nd nf to a river $40 bet didn't check to induce, he's a box.

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I wouldn't even want to play poker if I wasn't trying to maximize my hourly without regard for variance.
Good for you, you're allowed to have this perspective. I didn't say everyone needs to see it this way or that no one's allowed to see it this way. I'm just explaining some consequences of it.
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Old 01-19-2016, 06:22 PM   #12780
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
Depends what you want. If you want to be better at poker, improve at poker. If you don't want to live under a bridge, play more hours.

If I want to eat cheeseburgers, I'll eat cheese burgers. If I want to be entertained, I'll watch a band play. What is your point?

You're not making less, the ratio of (dollars)/(volatility unit) decreases.

So you make more? What is it you're arguing? I don't even anymore...

The decision is always between call and fold and raise is never considered. The guy last week who check/tank-called the 2nd nf to a river $40 bet didn't check to induce, he's a box.

Or he owned you. I'm guessing he owned you.

Good for you, you're allowed to have this perspective. I didn't say everyone needs to see it this way or that no one's allowed to see it this way. I'm just explaining some consequences of it.
You've explained nothing.
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Old 01-19-2016, 06:39 PM   #12781
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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yes
Lol
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Old 01-19-2016, 06:41 PM   #12782
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Andees seemed to think if you post on this forum your goal needs to be becoming the greatest poker player of all time. My stance is that doesn't need to be the case.

You make a little more and add a lot of volatility. You don't understand economics so it's difficult for you to understand. Someone who doesn't forego really thin value spots takes that extra amount of money and it's his money. Something comes with it, more variance. The guy who foregoes those thin spots, it's not that the money coming from those river bets doesn't exist to him, he just never sees the money. The money is out there and instead of taking it tied to the extra variance, he's buying less variance with that money. You can't take the money w/o the variance. You're allowed to sacrifice a tiny bit off your winrate in order to have a much less volatile month/year/etc.

I don't know why you think someone hero called my river massive overshove bluff with TP5K. I used to do that for value, then guys fell in love with folding, now I don't do it anymore. Maybe you're remembering a hand you played? You're the guy who lives to make razor thin value bets. Your thin value bets can get so thin that you cross the line from thin value betting to bluffing.
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Old 01-19-2016, 07:30 PM   #12783
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I honestly have no idea what eldiesel just posted.

Players don't understand that mastering "thin" spots actually lowers variance, not the other way around.

There are a lot more "thin" opportunities than there are "fat" ones. That's the reason why nits spend more time complaining about quality of the game and bad beats than having fun and not caring about losing hands.

"Don't put all your eggs in one basket."

There is also a major misconception that going after thin spots means shoving $1000 to win $1 EV.

Thin value is betting instead of checking on the river with TPNK.
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Old 01-19-2016, 07:31 PM   #12784
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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I think the specific words typed onto the screen have a lot more meaning than how many times a person has typed words onto said screen. You may think differently but I know lots of people who never STFU and still never say anything worth while. You can include most politicians in that list.
Ok, you're *clearly* missing the sample size joke, so here we go.

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This whole win rate discussion is useless. There are so many different styles of poker. Some come with incredible variance and some come with low variance. The super low variance style also comes with a low win rate because you are never pushing small edges, but you can win a high percentage of sessions if thats what you are trying to do. The high variance style may come with a higher win rate if you are good at it, but it will take you 10 times as many hours to know if you are really winning and its much harder to be good at this style. Somewhere in the middle is the proper merging of aggressiveness / variance and win rate, but there's no way of knowing exactly where that is especially when every table is different.
If the discussion is useless, why the hell are you here? Go somewhere else.

We know that higher variance and higher winrates go hand in hand, and that larger standard deviations require larger samples. Just because you're not good at "a style" doesn't mean that the right answer is to tone it down. Maybe, maybe not.


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If you are constantly raising the flop all in with lots of draws and 4 betting all in preflop with AK, then your variance is going to be a hell of a lot higher than a set miner.
Yea, and?

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
All you can do is play YOUR style perfectly and not tilt away money, not try to bluff calling stations, not fold too easily to maniacs and things like that and see what happens.
So ... play poker. This has nothing to do with "style". Not tilting, or making other bonehead plays has nothing to do with how aggressive you are or should be.

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
One last thing, if your win rate is high for an extended period of time, that doesnt mean its only because you are running hot. It may be because you are better than most other players and they cant accept that fact. There is no pokertracker for live play so nobody knows what anyone else is winning so dont act like you do. If someone posts that they are winning 15BB / hr and you are winning 7BB / hr they may actually be better than you and not just be on a heater.
Define "extended period of time".

6 months or a year may not be anywhere near long enough if your volume isn't high. But we can get a pretty good guess at hands from the number of hours, as in maybe about 30 hand/hr on average.

When analyzing an online database, people tell you you need *at least* 10,000 hands to draw a conclusion. So if your "extended period of time" is only 200 hours ... that's barely half what you'd need for a small sample.

So yes, telling people that their 85 hour sample isn't meaningful is completely fine and accurate ... it's not that "we can't accept the fact that other people are better".

There are a good number of larger samples around here, and most of the time those agree with the "that small sample is a heater" conclusions.

Finally, you claim that there are no live tracking methods (or is it that you just don't trust them?), but that I should just take some random poster's word that he's crushing a game? Sorry, but why should I do that again?
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Old 01-19-2016, 07:33 PM   #12785
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Always a thrill when you go for a thin value bet and Villain tanks, starts mumbling about hands and you realize that you've read him completely wrong and that you've actually just made a bluff. Full range of poker emotions all in 3 minutes.
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Old 01-19-2016, 07:42 PM   #12786
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
I honestly have no idea what eldiesel just posted.

Players don't understand that mastering "thin" spots actually lowers variance, not the other way around.

There are a lot more "thin" opportunities than there are "fat" ones. That's the reason why nits spend more time complaining about quality of the game and bad beats than having fun and not caring about losing hands.

"Don't put all your eggs in one basket."

There is also a major misconception that going after thin spots means shoving $1000 to win $1 EV.

Thin value is betting instead of checking on the river with TPNK.

He is applying economic theory that by taking on additional levels of risk (std dev I assume) one should be rewarded with a commensurate level of return (presumably win rate).

As you argue learning to thinly bet increases your win rate considerably. Whether that increased wine rate is commensurate with the increased "risk" of more wagering is the issue.

I don't think he makes his case as articulately or as simply as he could but I believe that is what he is saying.
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Old 01-19-2016, 07:47 PM   #12787
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Ok, what about beer rate?

Anyhow, guy who uses bigger words usually wins. I concede.
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Old 01-19-2016, 07:51 PM   #12788
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Ok, what about beer rate?

Anyhow, guy who uses bigger words usually wins. I concede.

Well he seems to think the additional win rate is small but the additional risk is somehow huge. Seems like he has convinced himself of this but just not sure how.

Beer rate<wine rate IMO
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Old 01-19-2016, 07:53 PM   #12789
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I was talking about ways to track OTHER peoples live winnings like you could do online with poker tracker. Since you can't track other people's winnings, you really only know your own win rate and what other people claim their win rate is. Poker players lie so their is virtually no way to know how you are doing compared to anyone else.

Unless there is some method to track other people live results that Ive never heard of in which case, nevermind.

My main point was that one persons 100 hr sample might be fairly accurate to their long term results depending on their playing style. Another person may need 1000 hrs to have any idea what their win rate is. So telling someone with 100 hrs that they have no idea what their win rate is yet when you have no idea how they play isnt necessarily correct.

PS...why are so many people here so grouchy?
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Old 01-19-2016, 07:55 PM   #12790
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
Well he seems to think the additional win rate is small but the additional risk is somehow huge. Seems like he has convinced himself of this but just not sure how.

Beer rate<wine rate IMO

That part I caught.

Thanks for the breakdown, bruh.
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Old 01-19-2016, 08:15 PM   #12791
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
Andees seemed to think if you post on this forum your goal needs to be becoming the greatest poker player of all time. My stance is that doesn't need to be the case.

You make a little more and add a lot of volatility. You don't understand economics so it's difficult for you to understand. Someone who doesn't forego really thin value spots takes that extra amount of money and it's his money. Something comes with it, more variance. The guy who foregoes those thin spots, it's not that the money coming from those river bets doesn't exist to him, he just never sees the money. The money is out there and instead of taking it tied to the extra variance, he's buying less variance with that money. You can't take the money w/o the variance. You're allowed to sacrifice a tiny bit off your winrate in order to have a much less volatile month/year/etc.

I don't know why you think someone hero called my river massive overshove bluff with TP5K. I used to do that for value, then guys fell in love with folding, now I don't do it anymore. Maybe you're remembering a hand you played? You're the guy who lives to make razor thin value bets. Your thin value bets can get so thin that you cross the line from thin value betting to bluffing.
If I don't know I am bluffing, then they can't know either.

That strat brought to you courtesy of drunkbigskippoker.com.
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Old 01-19-2016, 10:59 PM   #12792
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Always a thrill when you go for a thin value bet and Villain tanks, starts mumbling about hands and you realize that you've read him completely wrong and that you've actually just made a bluff. Full range of poker emotions all in 3 minutes.
But to get the full range though you'd need to both win and lose the hand, and I don't think Schrodinger did much work after he was finished with that ****ing cat.
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Old 01-19-2016, 11:04 PM   #12793
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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But to get the full range though you'd need to both win and lose the hand, and I don't think Schrodinger did much work after he was finished with that ****ing cat.
Yeah, I guess he's gotta make the call and then slowroll.
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Old 01-19-2016, 11:29 PM   #12794
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Diesel, you are completely confused. I think it's because you don't understand economics so it's difficult for you to understand this.

This largely goes back to your olive example which was deemed so stupid that it had to be deleted. Unfortunately you keep bringing it up in other ways, so I'm just going to go ahead and refer to it. What you don't understand is that you buy the olive with your winnings. You've already won, so any money spent afterwards is no longer related to the poker money. Losing a dollar at the table instead of spending a dollar on an olive is COMPLETELY different.

look at this graph:



As you can see, as the rake increases, winnings quickly plummet to 0 (and eventually negative although it's not shown). So enough -$1s in rake would leave you with 0 dollars to buy your olives. See the difference?

Now you can replace "rake" with "leak" or "foregoing thin value." (Which is really the exact same as a leak)




Also when you say "variance" it is completely incorrect, but whatever I'll just go with your definition. By foregoing thin spots you are actually increasing your "variance" (once again going by your definition) and not decreasing it. The reason is that you are cutting down on your +ev spots and increasing your -ev spots which is going to lead you to more losses in the long run. Variance (no quotes) really serves little purpose when looked at on a small scale. You are so concerned with your "variance" that you are unwilling to risk what would look like a large downwing in the shortterm, even if it would make your overall profits go much higher.
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Old 01-19-2016, 11:47 PM   #12795
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Olives?
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Old 01-19-2016, 11:48 PM   #12796
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Now I want to know about the damn olives...
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Old 01-19-2016, 11:48 PM   #12797
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Olives?
Stupid minds think alike.
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Old 01-19-2016, 11:57 PM   #12798
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Players don't understand that mastering "thin" spots actually lowers variance, not the other way around.

There are a lot more "thin" opportunities than there are "fat" ones.
Fat and thin are subjective. Without units it's difficult to categorize spots under each label. But what you're saying is what I'm saying. I go as thin as I can while still maintaining an expertise of what's going on. Most guys on here don't understand the mastery part of what you said. They're talking about betting rivers and getting called by worse 51% of the time. They add, theoretically, a nickel an hour but have much swingier sessions. Once you leave mastery level, you can add an extra few cents and a lot of variance, or you can forego both.
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Old 01-20-2016, 12:10 AM   #12799
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

You cant value bet thin to the exact point of your expertise (unless im misinterpreting). The only way to keep getting better at it ("mastering") is to keep on pushing the boundary where you will occasionally value-own yourself.

Imo i also agree that valuebet thinly reduces your variance based on the leak argument presented, but also it is inherently built into the structure of the game that betting more frequently, which invariably involves betting thinly, is superior to checking more frequently (thats my theory anyway).

In my experience i have never felt the sessions where im betting especially more thinly generated swingier sessions.
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Old 01-20-2016, 12:14 AM   #12800
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Diesel, you are completely confused. I think it's because you don't understand economics so it's difficult for you to understand this.
I wasn't going to have much respect for you anyway but an awful, original comeback would have gotten you more.

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This largely goes back to your olive example which was deemed so stupid that it had to be deleted. Unfortunately you keep bringing it up in other ways, so I'm just going to go ahead and refer to it. What you don't understand is that you buy the olive with your winnings. You've already won, so any money spent afterwards is no longer related to the poker money. Losing a dollar at the table instead of spending a dollar on an olive is COMPLETELY different.
Besides you typing olives a lot this has nothing to do with what I was saying.

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You are so concerned with your "variance" that you are unwilling to risk what would look like a large downwing in the shortterm, even if it would make your overall profits go much higher.
This is my point exactly. Guys are so concerned with mastering every spot starting on day 1. When you were 5 and played baseball for the first time did you try mastering every aspect of it? Or did you take years to get good at the basics, then in middle school added things to your arsenal, and in HS got even better, etc. For plenty of rec players a big downswing means not playing for months until they save. Those people are allowed to avoid thin or difficult spots, still beat the game, and maintain a bankroll. What I see is guys doing things week 1 that they probably won't have a good handle on until year 2, and things go bad and I never see them again.

I think you get it, it just seems like your stance is "If you're not rich enough to be able to withstand all the variance in the world in the short term and long term, why are you wasting my time asking questions on 2p2? Because all my opinions are directed to the rich." Even the non-millionaires are allowed to have discussions, although you do a really good job of turning them off from here.
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