Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-18-2016, 06:25 PM   #12701
suited fours
Pooh-Bah
 
suited fours's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: East Coast USA
Posts: 4,147
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
I think 70% used to be attainable, just like 10BB/hour used to be attainable for a lot of guys. Rec players are getting not as bad. Through almost 950 hours starting in 2013 I won 68% of sessions and made ~9BB/hour mostly with a rake of $6+$1+tip. You could just limp every SC and someone would pay you off with worse when you hit, and you could river value shove the nuts all the time and it'd work. I think March was the last time I got a river value overshove to work when the guy had trips or less. GG says his % sessions was over 70% but it's getting lower, I believe both parts of that. I think from 1/1/2015 - present, anything above 60% would be amazing, with the ceiling around 65%.
So, how often are you overshoving the river as a bluff now?

No strong opinion on the session winning % ceiling. I didn't give a lot of thought to the 2/3 when I threw it in my response.
suited fours is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 06:26 PM   #12702
VolumeKing
adept
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 729
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I for one would love to see people's break even stretches
VolumeKing is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 06:28 PM   #12703
suited fours
Pooh-Bah
 
suited fours's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: East Coast USA
Posts: 4,147
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by VolumeKing View Post
I for one would love to see people's break even stretches
Dinner and a movie first, then we'll see, sugar.
suited fours is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 06:35 PM   #12704
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,985
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

One year I had 3 200 hour break even stretch and still ended pretty well.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 06:40 PM   #12705
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 30,330
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
Lol
Anything specific that is lol?

I really don't know what the ceiling is regarding session winning percentage (and as RP says, it's probably not even important), but everything else he said is fairly similar to my experience (results oriented?).

But it is probably so market dependent. New markets are probably goldmines. Old ones, not so much if the forest has been pretty decimated.

GitismyunderstandingthatgoldcomesfromtreesG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 06:50 PM   #12706
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,985
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

It's like that topic about players maintaining high WR while sacrificing volume.

At end of the day, it doesn't matter if your WR is 20bb/hr if you are only able to put in prime hours to protect that WR.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 06:53 PM   #12707
browni3141
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 3,416
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Anything specific that is lol?

I really don't know what the ceiling is regarding session winning percentage (and as RP says, it's probably not even important), but everything else he said is fairly similar to my experience (results oriented?).

But it is probably so market dependent. New markets are probably goldmines. Old ones, not so much if the forest has been pretty decimated.

GitismyunderstandingthatgoldcomesfromtreesG
It's not a stat we want to maximize, so it's lol to talk about a ceiling for it. Anyone could probably win 95% of sessions if they wanted to by manipulating play style and having a low stop-win.

Winning >70% seems suspicious IMO and someone with that stat would likely be doing something wrong to attain that, like playing too tight, using stop-wins, etc.
browni3141 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 06:57 PM   #12708
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,985
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

"If I cash out every time I am $200 ahead, I'll be broke."
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 06:59 PM   #12709
TeamKB
grinder
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 650
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
"If I cash out every time I am $200 ahead, I'll be broke."
my ex wife thought this was a great strategy. i couldn't get her to understand why it wasn't.
TeamKB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 07:01 PM   #12710
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 30,330
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
Winning >70% seems suspicious IMO and someone with that stat would likely be doing something wrong to attain that, like playing too tight, using stop-wins, etc.
But he stated his winrate was ~9bb/hr at ~70%, and that was very similar to my results as well ~1800 hours in.

And I didn't use any tricks like stop/-wins / hit/running / etc. (as I always play for a predetermined allotted time).

Gtight,ok,thatoneI'llgiveyouG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 07:13 PM   #12711
suited fours
Pooh-Bah
 
suited fours's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: East Coast USA
Posts: 4,147
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

a 1/2 player with a WR of $18/hr and hourly stddev of $135 would "win" 60% of his sessions if he played 4 hour sessions, 65% if 8 hours, 68% if 12 hour sessions.

Since poker is one long session, I win 100% of my sessions. (or 0% if I'm just on a sick heater)
suited fours is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 07:47 PM   #12712
cAmmAndo
The Situation
 
cAmmAndo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Philly
Posts: 4,715
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
a 1/2 player with a WR of $18/hr and hourly stddev of $135 would "win" 60% of his sessions if he played 4 hour sessions, 65% if 8 hours, 68% if 12 hour sessions.

Since poker is one long session, I win 100% of my sessions. (or 0% if I'm just on a sick heater)

Best (meaning moast simplicated) explanation of variationisms and standard deviants I've seen.
cAmmAndo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 07:54 PM   #12713
eldiesel
Pooh-Bah
 
eldiesel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Earth
Posts: 3,584
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
So, how often are you overshoving the river as a bluff now?
Not too often, rec players have become such pu$$ies, they play TP very similarly to boats it's a very high volatility low reward scenario.

Instead of working to figure out those spots and still only having it work some of the time, you're better off just playing 3 hours more per week.
eldiesel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 08:16 PM   #12714
zoltan
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
zoltan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Off my lawn you little punk!
Posts: 20,397
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
a 1/2 player with a WR of $18/hr and hourly stddev of $135 would "win" 60% of his sessions if he played 4 hour sessions, 65% if 8 hours, 68% if 12 hour sessions.

Since poker is one long session, I win 100% of my sessions. (or 0% if I'm just on a sick heater)

I was gonna say it's pretty clear that sd will correlate pretty strongly (negatively) to % of sessions won, all else equal. SF said same thing tho.

in before slim "lol." Bedtime is hard.
zoltan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 08:17 PM   #12715
DeathCabForTootie
Pooh-Bah
 
DeathCabForTootie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: SHR Tunaments
Posts: 5,760
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
Not too often, rec players have become such pu$$ies, they play TP very similarly to boats it's a very high volatility low reward scenario.

Instead of working to figure out those spots and still only having it work some of the time, you're better off just playing 3 hours more per week.
Then save yourself the extra time and value bet thinner.

Don't understand how you can call these guys puss sissies and yet they call down with top pair. Does. Not. Compute.
DeathCabForTootie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 08:18 PM   #12716
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 6,315
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I try to maka da monies everything else is white noise
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 08:29 PM   #12717
Twentythrees
centurion
 
Twentythrees's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 152
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Do you think a 2/4 game with max buyin 1k (average stack size 500) and a 5% rake cap 20 is beatable? Player pool not good but also not too spewy (lot of weak tight recs)

Last edited by Twentythrees; 01-18-2016 at 08:34 PM.
Twentythrees is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 08:41 PM   #12718
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,985
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Define beatable.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 08:46 PM   #12719
UCDLaCrosse
Pooh-Bah
 
UCDLaCrosse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: ESSJ
Posts: 4,909
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Define beatable.
Define define.

One of my fave posters is back, HOW THE HELL ARE YA RP?
UCDLaCrosse is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 08:50 PM   #12720
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,985
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Doing great! Never really gone, unless I don't play poker anymore.

I don't think that'll happen.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 09:54 PM   #12721
shrewsbury91
adept
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: MA-CT
Posts: 773
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Percentage of sessions cashed is such an overrated statistic, don't see how people take so much stock in that pretty useless metric. It's like in baseball a closer posting a 5-0 record with a 5.67 ERA, you suck at pitching with a slim lead but your team bails you out in the later innings.

With a significant sample size and not a weekend warrior, what BB/hr at the low stakes do you consider crushing the game nowadays? Is 12BB/hr an accurate benchmark?
shrewsbury91 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 10:06 PM   #12722
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,985
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Average BI size and size of player pool are variables needed for that question.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 10:14 PM   #12723
FishtermerService
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Posts: 269
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I cant' lie. I am technically 12/13 on sessions cashed. On one night, I left literally even. I bought in for 1200, left with 1200. I had dinner and what not, and tips , so I still won. I changed it to 1201 on my app so it would show as a win, not a loss. :|

I got a problem
FishtermerService is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 10:14 PM   #12724
FishtermerService
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Posts: 269
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Either way.....I wish I could play more. Just with a serious job and all, it's tough. I wish I could be like you guys. My goal is ~100 hours a month.
FishtermerService is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2016, 10:23 PM   #12725
shrewsbury91
adept
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: MA-CT
Posts: 773
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Average BI size and size of player pool are variables needed for that question.
Assume 100BB buy-in and a large player pool


Quote:
Originally Posted by FishtermerService View Post
Either way.....I wish I could play more. Just with a serious job and all, it's tough. I wish I could be like you guys. My goal is ~100 hours a month.
100 hours a month is a good goal to start, but try doing that for 6 months straight and see if you feel burnt out.
shrewsbury91 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:59 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online