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Old 01-17-2016, 04:23 PM   #12676
FishtermerService
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by suited fours View Post
In Jax the sky is the limit.
Right? This is insane. never seen anything like it before in my life.
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Old 01-17-2016, 05:57 PM   #12677
t_roy
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by FishtermerService View Post
So what is a good hourly to shoot for? I am trying to figure out realistically what can be made at 2/5. I know it's a broad statement. Let's say I am above average. I play TAG and mix some LAG in there depending on who is at table. I'd say usually I am the best, or 2nd best player at most tables I play at. I could be wrong....short sample size. Seems like most regs I play with are all losers. Very few I see consistently winning. Again, small sample size (70 hours or so)
$50/hour is usually thrown out as a crusher win rate. Just based on what you've said though, you are definitely not a crusher. You are running super hot. Be prepared to come down to earth.

Results over 70 count for zero. Literally zero. Gives you no indication whatsoever of your win rate. It isn't just a small sample size, it is essentially non-existent. 500 hours may tell you if you're profitable. 1000 hours will get you a decent range of what you can expect. Play around with some variance calculators.

That said there is good money available to good players. Best of luck.
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Old 01-17-2016, 06:13 PM   #12678
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

500 hours seems to be a pretty good medium between "enough of a sample size to start meaning something" and "in the time it took to collect this data the game has changed significantly".
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Old 01-17-2016, 06:26 PM   #12679
FishtermerService
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by t_roy View Post
$50/hour is usually thrown out as a crusher win rate. Just based on what you've said though, you are definitely not a crusher. You are running super hot. Be prepared to come down to earth.

Results over 70 count for zero. Literally zero. Gives you no indication whatsoever of your win rate. It isn't just a small sample size, it is essentially non-existent. 500 hours may tell you if you're profitable. 1000 hours will get you a decent range of what you can expect. Play around with some variance calculators.

That said there is good money available to good players. Best of luck.
Can I ask what you mean by "just based on what you've said though, you are definitely not a crusher".

I really don't feel like I am running hot. I am just waiting for a good hand, and I am getting it in good. Ya, rarely have I had people suck out on me which is nice.....I know I'll come back to "earth" soon. I still feel that "earth" is going to be a solid winrate and a high hourly.
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Old 01-17-2016, 06:27 PM   #12680
FishtermerService
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Also, T-roy thank you for the input. I am trying to get 500 hours. Is 100 hours per month when I have a full time job still solid?
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Old 01-17-2016, 06:36 PM   #12681
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by FishtermerService View Post
Can I ask what you mean by "just based on what you've said though, you are definitely not a crusher".

I really don't feel like I am running hot. I am just waiting for a good hand, and I am getting it in good. Ya, rarely have I had people suck out on me which is nice.....I know I'll come back to "earth" soon. I still feel that "earth" is going to be a solid winrate and a high hourly.

There are so many variables to calculating live win rate and I honestly believe it is waste of time. It is good early on if you want know if your actually winning. But you should be getting better and better so by the time you have played a lot of hours you should be way better then when you first started calculating.

That said it sounds like you are playing in a soft game which is fantastic, i hope it runs often and you run well. Long story short you need more hours to tell what your capable of.
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Old 01-17-2016, 06:39 PM   #12682
FishtermerService
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Okay. Thank you. I'll /thread this now. I got the info I needed. Thanks a lot guys. I'll report back after I get some hours. Hope you hear from me soon....
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Old 01-17-2016, 06:56 PM   #12683
suited fours
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

You asked t_roy....
Can I ask what you mean by "just based on what you've said though, you are definitely not a crusher".

I'll give my version of an answer. Here's how I read your post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by FishtermerService View Post
So far in January....first month taking it more serious and playing some "serious" hours for me with a full time job.
It sounds like you're measuring from a convenient spot, "serious" began in January, prior "didn't count".

Quote:
Originally Posted by FishtermerService View Post
Current hours played in January : 61 hours 12 minutes
Crushers, among others, know that 61 hours is less than lol nothing. hourly stddev over the sample is probably at least $50/hr

Quote:
Originally Posted by FishtermerService View Post

2/5 NLHE game at local card room

$/hour: $94.80
Cashed: 12/12 (100%)
sweet results, btw.

good players understand that even in very beatable games, winning 2/3 of sessions would be excellent/awesome, actual session winrate varies based upon winrate, stddev and length of sessions

Quote:
Originally Posted by FishtermerService View Post
$/session: $483.50
BB/hour: 18.96

Profit/Loss: +$5,802


Is this sustainable? I don't feel like I am on a heater. I haven't been in a lot of flips....and the ones I do get in I'm usually always ahead.
You're on a heater. That fact that you don't believe that you're on a heater is illustrative of your inexperience and/or lack of understanding of what can and will happen at the poker table.

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I can't explain how beatable this game is, never seen anything like it before.
I've played in jax. No need to explain.

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Originally Posted by FishtermerService View Post
I never played professionally, but I grew up with a brother who played for a living for over a decade online. I know a good bit about poker, but never thought of myself as a game crusher.
My brother is one the smartest people I've ever met. He knows a lot about poker. He's also a fish. (bro, if you read this someday, you're better than lots of the other fish, sorry man, truth hurts)
Quote:
Originally Posted by FishtermerService View Post
Still trying to figure out if I am good or not. -_-
It's very normal to go on a heater and think ez game, this is like printing money. Enjoy it while it lasts, because it won't last forever.

Are you good enough to beat 2-5 in Jax today? For how much? None of us can answer that for you.
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Old 01-17-2016, 07:21 PM   #12684
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Good post s4.

Poker is a tough game to win at consistently. I've been mentoring this 23 year old guy (lol me @ 28 mentoring someone) but his mindset is like yours and all wrong. He thinks he is god's poker gift to the world and can do no wrong, but when he gets cold decked he dumps 100-200 BB's through various forms of tilt rather than grinding out a breakeven session.

Weathering downswings and being able to play breakeven poker is a pretty underrated skill in my opinion and is probably what separates a lot of marginal winners from crushers.

You might not think you are running hot, but believe me, once you start running cold you will look back fondly on these days.
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Old 01-17-2016, 11:35 PM   #12685
t_roy
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Suited fours nailed it.

You might be profitable, but you have a long ways to go. Having a handful of atrocious players at your table doesn't automatically make you a winner.

100 hours a month with a full time job is doable but tough to maintain. Idk what you mean by "solid." Do what makes sense for you.
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Old 01-17-2016, 11:44 PM   #12686
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

THank you all for the input. The only thing I disagree with is comparing my brother to yours, suited4. I have seen his graphs over millions of hands and the results are astonishing (to me). Regardless, I don't think I'm god's gift to poker. I realize I am running a little hot, just wasn't sure HOW HOT. The reason I didn't think I was on a heater was because I wasn't winning a lot of flips, or getting it in with kings and cracking aces. Most of my hands came from me playing well, extracting value, not getting in tough spots, nitting it up and waiting for a spot to give me a huge edge.

Regardless, I know I am nowhere near the best player in Jax. Best player on here. I have oodles and oodles and oodles to learn...and even some more oodles. I was just trying to get a decent win rate to shoot for. It seems like 50$/ hour over 500 hours is my goal. If I can do that, I'll come back and respond here. Otherwise, you guys will see me on teh low limit forums posting about hands. If you ever see me, shoot over and let me know what you think. I really REALLY love criticism. I need more of it because that is how I learn.
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Old 01-17-2016, 11:45 PM   #12687
FishtermerService
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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THank you all for the input. The only thing I disagree with is comparing my brother to yours, suited4. I have seen his graphs over millions of hands and the results are astonishing (to me). Regardless, I don't think I'm god's gift to poker. I realize I am running a little hot, just wasn't sure HOW HOT. The reason I didn't think I was on a heater was because I wasn't winning a lot of flips, or getting it in with kings and cracking aces. Most of my hands came from me playing well, extracting value, not getting in tough spots, nitting it up and waiting for a spot to give me a huge edge.

Regardless, I know I am nowhere near the best player in Jax. Best player on here. I have oodles and oodles and oodles to learn...and even some more oodles. I was just trying to get a decent win rate to shoot for. It seems like 50$/ hour over 500 hours is my goal. If I can do that, I'll come back and respond here. Otherwise, you guys will see me on teh low limit forums posting about hands. If you ever see me, shoot over and let me know what you think. I really REALLY love criticism. I need more of it because that is how I learn.
Granted, some of these times I was "getting it in good" involved flopping flushes, hitting my straight card, flopping sets vs aces, etc....so I know the heat is there
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Old 01-18-2016, 04:49 AM   #12688
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Granted, some of these times I was "getting it in good" involved flopping flushes, hitting my straight card, flopping sets vs aces, etc....so I know the heat is there
Believe, the simple fact that you get in spots "extracting value" means you're running hot.

It's hard to make a pair in this game.
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Old 01-18-2016, 06:19 AM   #12689
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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good players understand that even in very beatable games, winning 2/3 of sessions would be excellent/awesome
67% winning sessions would be HOF
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Old 01-18-2016, 12:57 PM   #12690
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by FishtermerService View Post
THank you all for the input. The only thing I disagree with is comparing my brother to yours, suited4. I have seen his graphs over millions of hands and the results are astonishing (to me). Regardless, I don't think I'm god's gift to poker. I realize I am running a little hot, just wasn't sure HOW HOT. The reason I didn't think I was on a heater was because I wasn't winning a lot of flips, or getting it in with kings and cracking aces. Most of my hands came from me playing well, extracting value, not getting in tough spots, nitting it up and waiting for a spot to give me a huge edge.

Regardless, I know I am nowhere near the best player in Jax. Best player on here. I have oodles and oodles and oodles to learn...and even some more oodles. I was just trying to get a decent win rate to shoot for. It seems like 50$/ hour over 500 hours is my goal. If I can do that, I'll come back and respond here. Otherwise, you guys will see me on teh low limit forums posting about hands. If you ever see me, shoot over and let me know what you think. I really REALLY love criticism. I need more of it because that is how I learn.
Another thing to realize is that even when you get your money in as a decent favourite and your hand holds up, you are still running very hot because your actual win for the hand is well above the expected EV (props to RobFarha's P&G thread for that one). There are a zillion ways to "run hot" (good end of coolers, flopping more than your expected sets, making more than your expected draws, being at a great table / against a really bad opponent when you finally make a hand instead of at a bad table / good opponent, not having people suck out on you at their expected rate, etc. etc. etc.), but one of the most common ways of running hot is just having your expected winning hand to hold up.

And as others have said, 60 hours or whatever is just nothing. Absolutely nothing. And just as you *think* you're getting a faint idea of what is happening at 500 hours or 1000 hours or 2000 hours, you realize the game you are playing in has changed and all the data you've collected means nothing.

GgoodluckG
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Old 01-18-2016, 01:59 PM   #12691
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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67% winning sessions would be HOF
Really? I'm at 65% over 109 sessions of 1/2 and I'm a much better player now than when first started tracking. Also think there is still much room for improvement in my game.

Most recent 50 sessions is 69%.

How many more sessions do I need for these stats to be useful?

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Old 01-18-2016, 02:34 PM   #12692
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Higher session winning percentage is not a meaningful stat.

Sure it would be nice to win 100%, but if you're trying to maintain certain percentage, it will likely lead to making -EV decisions such as leaving early from a great game to protect a win or staying too long to chase a loss back.
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Old 01-18-2016, 02:35 PM   #12693
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Closing in on my first 1k tracked hours at $3/5. Nothing amazing had a few small down swings that affected my bottom line.

Currently 950 hours @ $3/5 ($500 cap game) with currently $35.54/hour profit. I tend to play a lot of short sessions since I work about 50 hours a week. Currently won 141/248 sessions so 56% and only averaging about 4 hours a session. Wish I could play longer sessions but I start to get pretty tired. I live an hour from casino and I've typically already been up for 10-12 hours by the time I get into the game. I feel like my hourly rate could easy be better if I was coming into the game more fresh but not an option.
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Old 01-18-2016, 02:36 PM   #12694
gobbledygeek
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
Really? I'm at 65% over 109 sessions of 1/2 and I'm a much better player now than when first started tracking. Also think there is still much room for improvement in my game.

Most recent 50 sessions is 69%.

How many more sessions do I need for these stats to be useful?

Sent from my SM-T320 using 2+2 Forums
What is HOF? Hall of Fame / amazing?

Mine is currently 67.8% over 335 sessions, although (a) my sessions average a decent ~8 hours long (more chance of booking a session win?) and (b) fairly sure that number has plummeted from > 70% in the last year or so.

Gprobablydoesn'treallymatterthough?G
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Old 01-18-2016, 02:50 PM   #12695
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

If I haven't botched the math, long term winning session percentage of 67%, given always same session length and no shenanigans such as locking in wins, would be realized when this equation is true:

(hourly_WR / hourly_stddev ) * sqrt (session_length_in_hours) = .44

Somebody please correct my math if wrong. I'd guess achievable primarily with nitty style against soft opponents and long sessions.

I agree with RP on meaninglessness of the stat. Just playing around here.
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Old 01-18-2016, 03:13 PM   #12696
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

From my prior post I filtered down my logs to 5+ hour session length. I found I'm making $66.15/hour over 590 hours and won 72/104 sessions for 69%. This was all played at $3/5 and most of these sessions being played on my days off of work.

Pretty eye opening to me I'm losing $18/hour when I play under 4 hours. Looks like I won't be playing short sessions after work any more had no idea I'm only winning when I can play longer sessions.

Last edited by clubkiller; 01-18-2016 at 03:20 PM.
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Old 01-18-2016, 03:34 PM   #12697
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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From my prior post I filtered down my logs to 5+ hour session length. I found I'm making $66.15/hour over 590 hours and won 72/104 sessions for 69%. This was all played at $3/5 and most of these sessions being played on my days off of work.

Pretty eye opening to me I'm losing $18/hour when I play under 4 hours. Looks like I won't be playing short sessions after work any more had no idea I'm only winning when I can play longer sessions.
I know that a lot of people are highly suspicious of breaking stats down by day of the week ... but your long sessions are mostly on weekends, while the short ones are during the week? I think it's pretty obvious to anyone with functioning eyes that the clientele in most rooms is different between these two environments.

I've found similar results where my results are very hit or miss for short sessions in my super local room, but much better when I drive farther and/or play for longer.
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Old 01-18-2016, 03:43 PM   #12698
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Yea about 450/590 hours are on Sunday/Monday, which are my days off.
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Old 01-18-2016, 05:56 PM   #12699
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I think 70% used to be attainable, just like 10BB/hour used to be attainable for a lot of guys. Rec players are getting not as bad. Through almost 950 hours starting in 2013 I won 68% of sessions and made ~9BB/hour mostly with a rake of $6+$1+tip. You could just limp every SC and someone would pay you off with worse when you hit, and you could river value shove the nuts all the time and it'd work. I think March was the last time I got a river value overshove to work when the guy had trips or less. GG says his % sessions was over 70% but it's getting lower, I believe both parts of that. I think from 1/1/2015 - present, anything above 60% would be amazing, with the ceiling around 65%.
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Old 01-18-2016, 06:20 PM   #12700
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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I think 70% used to be attainable, just like 10BB/hour used to be attainable for a lot of guys. Rec players are getting not as bad. Through almost 950 hours starting in 2013 I won 68% of sessions and made ~9BB/hour mostly with a rake of $6+$1+tip. You could just limp every SC and someone would pay you off with worse when you hit, and you could river value shove the nuts all the time and it'd work. I think March was the last time I got a river value overshove to work when the guy had trips or less. GG says his % sessions was over 70% but it's getting lower, I believe both parts of that. I think from 1/1/2015 - present, anything above 60% would be amazing, with the ceiling around 65%.
Lol
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