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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

01-15-2016 , 02:33 AM
I think 100bb cap games are more for matured poker markets with multiple tables and game stakes. I think the uncapped games are for markets where they have to accommodate both a guy who wants to buy in for $500 and a guy who buys in for $1000 and the guy who wants to buy in for $100 at $1/2. At a casino with multiple 1/2 and 2/5 tables, they want to make sure those players last long enough at those stakes, and let the high rollers buy whatever they want at the 5/T

Which is also the reason the biggest game in the room is usually uncapped to accommodate the guy who wants to buy $10k onto a 5/T game.
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01-15-2016 , 02:52 AM
I'm really curious as to why the max buyin seems to be trending upwards at casinos. Seems to me like they would like to keep it as low as possible so the money stays at the table and gets raked.
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01-15-2016 , 09:20 AM
There's a couple of factors IMO.

1) room managers are more knowledgeable about the game itself.

2) increased competition forces rooms to listen to their customers more (and implement more of their ideas). Used to be AC and LV only. Now every major city has at least one room. Usually multiple.

3) regs want deeper stacks to take advantage of fish and gamblers want to, well, gamble. If they're not able to gamble the amount they want AND have some sort of sense they may and can win, they'll wander off to BJ or baccarat.

Frankly, if poker rooms were really smart, they'd give incentives to start limit games. The poker economy will stay flush/bad players don't get broke as quick and rec players will even have a bigger Illusion that they have a chance to win.
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01-15-2016 , 10:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie
There's a couple of factors IMO.

1) room managers are more knowledgeable about the game itself.

2) increased competition forces rooms to listen to their customers more (and implement more of their ideas). Used to be AC and LV only. Now every major city has at least one room. Usually multiple.

3) regs want deeper stacks to take advantage of fish and gamblers want to, well, gamble. If they're not able to gamble the amount they want AND have some sort of sense they may and can win, they'll wander off to BJ or baccarat.

Frankly, if poker rooms were really smart, they'd give incentives to start limit games. The poker economy will stay flush/bad players don't get broke as quick and rec players will even have a bigger Illusion that they have a chance to win.
Columbus gave some incentives to start limit while I was there. Only place I can think of that has done that. (I've played in ~35 rooms) First 9 players to play 1 hour in the morning on certain day(s) of the week, got a cash payout. Don't remember the exact amount, I think between $25-$50.
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01-15-2016 , 01:21 PM
It is clear that the market has spoken in favor of no limit at the low stakes. That will change when the customers change, not when the room wants it to change.
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01-15-2016 , 02:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by t_roy
It is clear that the market has spoken in favor of no limit at the low stakes. That will change when the customers change, not when the room wants it to change.
True. The Columbus example is just a room trying to give a nudge to get a game rolling earlier than it would without influence. That way, the players know a game will be running, they can have a dealer there to staff it, etc. They're not trying to convert the entire player pool to NL.

The Isle in Pompano Beach spends a ton of effort to get their M.A.P. game running at various times of the week. There is even a freaking billboard on I95 about it. Doesn't matter, that game has no chance of sticking around long term, no matter how much the people who came up with the idea want it to.
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01-15-2016 , 03:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist
I have a similar theory about even "normal" LLSNL games like $1/2 or $2/5. The winning players can remain at the table indefinitely, the rocks can grind it out all day, but the drunks and donkeys will go broke fastest. So the longer a table runs the more likely it is that it fills with rocks or winners
If all the drunks and donkeys had to show up at the same time by rule with max. 1 buy-in, I guess this would be accurate. That's not how it works though.
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01-17-2016 , 02:54 PM
Ok so was wondering how others track promotion wins in there record keeping. Say casino offers free roll for 30 hrs or so play. You cash for 500$ how do you track this money because it is basically rake back.
But should it count in your winrate or be tracked in a different way. Im sure i have always counted splash pot promos in my Hr/winrate. But have never counted free rolls high hand promos or other big hand promos in my hourly rate. Im thinking i should cause they are all funded from rake Right ?
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01-17-2016 , 03:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Acezzzup
Ok so was wondering how others track promotion wins in there record keeping. Say casino offers free roll for 30 hrs or so play. You cash for 500$ how do you track this money because it is basically rake back.
But should it count in your winrate or be tracked in a different way. Im sure i have always counted splash pot promos in my Hr/winrate. But have never counted free rolls high hand promos or other big hand promos in my hourly rate. Im thinking i should cause they are all funded from rake Right ?
Just like with a BBJ, I record it as a separate game. So my overall results show the bump, but when I filter for $1/2 it doesn't influence the winrate.
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01-17-2016 , 03:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited fours
True. The Columbus example is just a room trying to give a nudge to get a game rolling earlier than it would without influence. That way, the players know a game will be running, they can have a dealer there to staff it, etc. They're not trying to convert the entire player pool to NL.

The Isle in Pompano Beach spends a ton of effort to get their M.A.P. game running at various times of the week. There is even a freaking billboard on I95 about it. Doesn't matter, that game has no chance of sticking around long term, no matter how much the people who came up with the idea want it to.
Ive played with the guy who invented that game. He owns the trademark or patent or whatever its called and he gets a percentage of the rake. Why do you think it wont stick around? I havent played it but I think it will catch on. People who love action seem to love it because they are always in a hand.

PS..the dude who invented that game is not very good at poker, but thinks he is.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-17-2016 , 03:42 PM
So far in January....first month taking it more serious and playing some "serious" hours for me with a full time job.

Current hours played in January : 61 hours 12 minutes

2/5 NLHE game at local card room

$/hour: $94.80
Cashed: 12/12 (100%)
$/session: $483.50
BB/hour: 18.96

Profit/Loss: +$5,802


Is this sustainable? I don't feel like I am on a heater. I haven't been in a lot of flips....and the ones I do get in I'm usually always ahead. I can't explain how beatable this game is, never seen anything like it before. I never played professionally, but I grew up with a brother who played for a living for over a decade online. I know a good bit about poker, but never thought of myself as a game crusher. Still trying to figure out if I am good or not. -_-
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01-17-2016 , 03:52 PM
No, never losing is not sustainable.
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01-17-2016 , 03:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JackInDaCrak
No, never losing is not sustainable.
Haha I agree with this. I am just asking about my BB/hour and $/hour. What is an above average, average bb/hour and $/hour at 2/5?
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01-17-2016 , 04:06 PM
$100/hr is not sustainable at 2/5. I once did it for 5 months, but eventually it comes back down.
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01-17-2016 , 04:07 PM
Unlikely to be sustainable.

Just one standard 1000 loss would really change your results
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01-17-2016 , 04:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
$100/hr is not sustainable at 2/5. I once did it for 5 months, but eventually it comes back down.
So what is a good hourly to shoot for? I am trying to figure out realistically what can be made at 2/5. I know it's a broad statement. Let's say I am above average. I play TAG and mix some LAG in there depending on who is at table. I'd say usually I am the best, or 2nd best player at most tables I play at. I could be wrong....short sample size. Seems like most regs I play with are all losers. Very few I see consistently winning. Again, small sample size (70 hours or so)
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01-17-2016 , 04:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Ive played with the guy who invented that game. He owns the trademark or patent or whatever its called and he gets a percentage of the rake. Why do you think it wont stick around? I havent played it but I think it will catch on. People who love action seem to love it because they are always in a hand.

PS..the dude who invented that game is not very good at poker, but thinks he is.
The guy who hangs around the room, getting people on his text list, etc, acts like it's his game, yeah, rec player.

I can't think of one reason why the game will take off. Dealers hate dealing it. Only takes one player not alert to bog down the game. Can't think of a rec player profile that the game will appeal to. I played it two sessions, it was OK.
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01-17-2016 , 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FishtermerService
So what is a good hourly to shoot for? I am trying to figure out realistically what can be made at 2/5. I know it's a broad statement. Let's say I am above average. I play TAG and mix some LAG in there depending on who is at table. I'd say usually I am the best, or 2nd best player at most tables I play at. I could be wrong....short sample size. Seems like most regs I play with are all losers. Very few I see consistently winning. Again, small sample size (70 hours or so)
In Jax the sky is the limit.
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01-17-2016 , 04:21 PM
Didn't they used to have that MAP game at the Aria for a while?

Seems like an interesting idea on the surface, but with enough downsides that it would be a royal PITA in practice. One the one hand you'd get more hands/hour, but you'll also run into the same issues you see with zoom online where fish tighten up their ranges because a better hand is just a hand away. Not to mention the possibility for confusion with new players.
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01-17-2016 , 04:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited fours
In Jax the sky is the limit.
Right? This is insane. never seen anything like it before in my life.
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01-17-2016 , 05:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FishtermerService
So what is a good hourly to shoot for? I am trying to figure out realistically what can be made at 2/5. I know it's a broad statement. Let's say I am above average. I play TAG and mix some LAG in there depending on who is at table. I'd say usually I am the best, or 2nd best player at most tables I play at. I could be wrong....short sample size. Seems like most regs I play with are all losers. Very few I see consistently winning. Again, small sample size (70 hours or so)
$50/hour is usually thrown out as a crusher win rate. Just based on what you've said though, you are definitely not a crusher. You are running super hot. Be prepared to come down to earth.

Results over 70 count for zero. Literally zero. Gives you no indication whatsoever of your win rate. It isn't just a small sample size, it is essentially non-existent. 500 hours may tell you if you're profitable. 1000 hours will get you a decent range of what you can expect. Play around with some variance calculators.

That said there is good money available to good players. Best of luck.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-17-2016 , 06:13 PM
500 hours seems to be a pretty good medium between "enough of a sample size to start meaning something" and "in the time it took to collect this data the game has changed significantly".
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-17-2016 , 06:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by t_roy
$50/hour is usually thrown out as a crusher win rate. Just based on what you've said though, you are definitely not a crusher. You are running super hot. Be prepared to come down to earth.

Results over 70 count for zero. Literally zero. Gives you no indication whatsoever of your win rate. It isn't just a small sample size, it is essentially non-existent. 500 hours may tell you if you're profitable. 1000 hours will get you a decent range of what you can expect. Play around with some variance calculators.

That said there is good money available to good players. Best of luck.
Can I ask what you mean by "just based on what you've said though, you are definitely not a crusher".

I really don't feel like I am running hot. I am just waiting for a good hand, and I am getting it in good. Ya, rarely have I had people suck out on me which is nice.....I know I'll come back to "earth" soon. I still feel that "earth" is going to be a solid winrate and a high hourly.
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01-17-2016 , 06:27 PM
Also, T-roy thank you for the input. I am trying to get 500 hours. Is 100 hours per month when I have a full time job still solid?
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01-17-2016 , 06:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FishtermerService
Can I ask what you mean by "just based on what you've said though, you are definitely not a crusher".

I really don't feel like I am running hot. I am just waiting for a good hand, and I am getting it in good. Ya, rarely have I had people suck out on me which is nice.....I know I'll come back to "earth" soon. I still feel that "earth" is going to be a solid winrate and a high hourly.

There are so many variables to calculating live win rate and I honestly believe it is waste of time. It is good early on if you want know if your actually winning. But you should be getting better and better so by the time you have played a lot of hours you should be way better then when you first started calculating.

That said it sounds like you are playing in a soft game which is fantastic, i hope it runs often and you run well. Long story short you need more hours to tell what your capable of.
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