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Old 01-08-2016, 01:00 AM   #12551
BirdsallSa
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

What kind of downswings are these "pros" planning on going on? A 3 month 30 buyin downswing? That bankroll is beyond excessive for LLSNL.

Btw I'm not knocking pros who do have bankrolls this large. I'm just saying to insinuate that pros who have a 20 buyin roll with 6 months living expenses are living on the edge and 50 buyins is "standard" is stretching it. Why don't we just make it 100 buyins with a year of living expenses?
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Old 01-08-2016, 01:39 AM   #12552
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
What kind of downswings are these "pros" planning on going on? A 3 month 30 buyin downswing? That bankroll is beyond excessive for LLSNL.

Btw I'm not knocking pros who do have bankrolls this large. I'm just saying to insinuate that pros who have a 20 buyin roll with 6 months living expenses are living on the edge and 50 buyins is "standard" is stretching it. Why don't we just make it 100 buyins with a year of living expenses?
He would probably be the happiest pro out there.
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Old 01-08-2016, 02:31 AM   #12553
t_roy
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
I always assumed if you had no other source of income, 50 buy-ins plus 6 months living expenses was standard, even if you're a good sized winner at your limit. Is this outdated?
FWIW, I went full time with good back up plans and 80 BIs, which is how I thought about it. It was the equivalent of 40 BIs plus 6 months. I feel like at some point, if you bust a roll of X, it is really only a matter of time before you bust a roll of X+Y.

I would never advise that someone be less cautious though. More money allows you more time to figure out a next step if everything goes south. In my case, I felt pretty comfortable in the next step arena.
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Old 01-08-2016, 02:33 AM   #12554
kekeeke
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
He would probably be the happiest pro out there.
truth
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Old 01-08-2016, 03:07 AM   #12555
Richard Parker
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by t_roy View Post
FWIW, I went full time with good back up plans and 80 BIs, which is how I thought about it. It was the equivalent of 40 BIs plus 6 months. I feel like at some point, if you bust a roll of X, it is really only a matter of time before you bust a roll of X+Y.

I would never advise that someone be less cautious though. More money allows you more time to figure out a next step if everything goes south. In my case, I felt pretty comfortable in the next step arena.
More money also allows you to treat poker for what it is, a game.

Have fun with it, laugh about a horrible beat, interact with people around you...

Most people think playing poker professionally as some sort of contractor killer job. It is no wonder that they suffer miserably because of it.
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Old 01-08-2016, 03:43 AM   #12556
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
More money also allows you to treat poker for what it is, a game.

Have fun with it, laugh about a horrible beat, interact with people around you...

Most people think playing poker professionally as some sort of contractor killer job. It is no wonder that they suffer miserably because of it.
10/10
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Old 01-08-2016, 04:13 AM   #12557
t_roy
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
More money also allows you to treat poker for what it is, a game.

Have fun with it, laugh about a horrible beat, interact with people around you...

Most people think playing poker professionally as some sort of contractor killer job. It is no wonder that they suffer miserably because of it.
Absolutely. If you can't laugh at a bad beat, you definitely shouldn't go pro. The roll required to laugh it off can vary wildly by person though. If you are ever mid-hand thinking about the actual $$$ value of what you are wagering, you shouldn't be playing at that level.
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Old 01-08-2016, 08:47 AM   #12558
ZuneIt
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by tellypl View Post
Newbie question for you folks:

Do you calculate your winrates to:
-Include comp rewards
-Include tips paid (to dealer and for drinks)


Thank you!
I guess it depends on what you want your winrate to reflect. If you are like me, and want it to reflect nothing but your hourly profit based upon skill, then the only thing you deduct is tips to the dealer, and you do not include freebies or cash promotional wins. I tip the servers out of my pocket, because that is an entertainment expense.
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Old 01-08-2016, 09:04 AM   #12559
DeathCabForTootie
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
More money also allows you to treat poker for what it is, a game.

Have fun with it, laugh about a horrible beat, interact with people around you...

Most people think playing poker professionally as some sort of contractor killer job. It is no wonder that they suffer miserably because of it.
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Originally Posted by RobFarha View Post
10/10
Agreed, nice post Dickie.
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Old 01-08-2016, 09:50 AM   #12560
ZuneIt
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
You don't seem to understand the concept of risk of ruin. If you have no capital, you can't play poker and you can't win money, so your winrate is meaningless. And I'll try to make this simple for you:

In my example, queens are roughly a 53/47 favorite against AK, so your call will net you around +$60. However, it's a high variance call because you are risking $1000 to win $60.
That's not the way it works. You are not risking 1k to win $60.
If you are going to work with percentages, then you have to look at 100 instances of the same scenario & assume variance evens out over 100 hands, which is laughable. But anyways.

53 times you'll win 1k = $53,000 & 47 times you'll lose 1k =$47,000, so you net $6000.00.

Now, if your average all-in hand preflop takes 2 minutes to complete [from the time of the deal, to the winner being shoved the pot & the next hand dealt out], you will complete those 100 hands in 3hrs & 20 minutes, or ~3.3 hours.

$6000/3.3hrs = $1818.18 per hour win rate for those 100 hands.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff
You could easily lose 3 or 4 of these flips in a row.
Laughable. You could lose 12 in a row.
I believe it was the 2nd time Johnny Chan won the WSOP Main Event, that when it was down to 2 tables, he won 12 all-in coin-flips in a row. Either him or his opponent had a PP & the other AK. Chan won all 12.

If you confirm this on the internet, please give me the link, because I have searched to no avail. But I swear I remember hearing it on t.v. during a poker show.

That is why he had such a huge chip lead going into the final table.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff
So even though you are making the correct play by calling from an EV standpoint you are making a serious error from a risk of ruin standpoint if your bankroll is only $2000.
When mine was only 2k, I wouldn't even consider calling 1k with QQ, even if my opponent showed me AKo. I played every hand as if my life depended on it. It severely hampers your win rate. Today I would snap call despite how bad I'd been running.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff
Obviously, as I stated before if you can replenish your bankroll then your risk of ruin is essentially zero, so you can go ahead and maximize your winrate. But for the average joe, his risk of ruin is not zero. And I'm not sure why you think trying to avoid the risk of ruin makes someone an awful play poker player.


I will give you an example, however, I'm sure you're going to think I'm making this up, because I'm going to tell you it happened yesterday.

Flop comes KJ6

A deep pocketed retiree, who loves to gamble bets ~1/3rd the pot. The 2nd player flats. I have AA

I 'pot it.' ~$80. Deep Pockets, who I've played with for over a decade in home games & who has me pegged as a NIT, thinks he can blow me off of my hand & nervously announces all-in & then pushes all $800 of his chips into the center.

The 2nd player tanks. He wants a chip count, because he has ~$750 in front of him. [turns out he had started with $200] and finally folds. I collect my ~$250 and call.

Dealer runs them out & Deep Pocket turns over his KTo that didn't improve.

2nd player had mucked a set of 6s! Claims he had worked too hard to build up that $500+ profit to risk it on one hand. He felt strongly that it had to be set over set.

Now I don't blame him. If I had been him, back when my roll was thin & knowing Deep Pockets as I do, I would have already cashed out, waited an hour & bought back in for $300.00. That way, I avoid situations like the one he found himself in.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff
As for being properly rolled for their game, most people aren't. A 10 BB/100 ($10/hr in 2/3) winner with a standard deviation of 100 needs a bankroll of 1498 BB to reduce his risk of ruin to 5%. And most people aren't anywhere close to being 10 BB/100 winners, despite some of the winrates being posted in here.
You're saying 3k is a sufficient bankroll for 1/2. I do not believe that. For me, personally, to be able to play poker the way it's suppose to be played, I keep my bankroll over 9k. I know a guy who is a grinder in a 2/5 game, rarely suffers a really hard hit, averages 1k profit per week & has only a 6k bankroll. I couldn't do it.......too much stress.

He's a pro at selectively pickin' his spots.
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Old 01-08-2016, 10:12 AM   #12561
ZuneIt
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
What kind of downswings are these "pros" planning on going on? A 3 month 30 buyin downswing? That bankroll is beyond excessive for LLSNL.

Btw I'm not knocking pros who do have bankrolls this large. I'm just saying to insinuate that pros who have a 20 buyin roll with 6 months living expenses are living on the edge and 50 buyins is "standard" is stretching it. Why don't we just make it 100 buyins with a year of living expenses?
Can you go on a 10-15 BI downswing? If so, would you not like something left? I never have, but I don't have to worry about it. A 15 BI downswing would leave me with 15 BIs & my worse downswing was ~$1300.00. It's comin' though, ain't it? Afterall, I'm not leavin' the table anymore when I have $800 in front of me & 3 players have me covered.

Or is it comin'? Squid says he's worse downswing was 7.5k [in a much bigger game] & I'm probably as good as him........amirite?
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Old 01-08-2016, 10:52 AM   #12562
mikko
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
What kind of downswings are these "pros" planning on going on? A 3 month 30 buyin downswing? That bankroll is beyond excessive for LLSNL.

Btw I'm not knocking pros who do have bankrolls this large. I'm just saying to insinuate that pros who have a 20 buyin roll with 6 months living expenses are living on the edge and 50 buyins is "standard" is stretching it. Why don't we just make it 100 buyins with a year of living expenses?
30 buy-ins not enough IMO, for a pro with no outside income and family. Is my guess %75 of pros started with way less, than 20 though. 5-10 buy-in roll is laughable for serious pro.

As a rec, I would try to keep 10 buy-ins for lowest stake possible. Willing to take shots with anything else in bankroll.

My hours at table fell dramatically in 2015. But I still see zero profitable "pros" at 1/2. Watch a ton of people try.
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Old 01-08-2016, 11:10 AM   #12563
Garick
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

OK, I just spend 45 frikken minutes putting out the dumpster fire that this thread had become. Don't make me do it again.

Most of the idiotic 5-10BI BR straw man argument is gone, along with most of the responses (even though individually most of them were OK, it was just clogging the eff out of the thread), and all of the derail.

Reminder: This is not the chat thread. If you see trolling, hit the report button, don't counter-troll or "save" the thread by going completely off-subject.
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Old 01-08-2016, 01:38 PM   #12564
Avaritia
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
More money also allows you to treat poker for what it is, a game.

Have fun with it, laugh about a horrible beat, interact with people around you...

Most people think playing poker professionally as some sort of consistent cash flow positive job. It is no wonder that they suffer miserably because of it.
I changed the job part but really A+ /thread.

Seriously, you could lock up the thread with this piece of advice concluding it.
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Old 01-10-2016, 06:39 PM   #12565
YGOchamp
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Idk... counter trolling is pretty +EV in terms of improving the quality of my life.
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Old 01-10-2016, 11:59 PM   #12566
ATsai
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
I changed the job part but really A+ /thread.

Seriously, you could lock up the thread with this piece of advice concluding it.
Avaritia, are you still doing the full-time live pro thing after quitting your job? Or are you back to doing your job and doing the semi-pro poker thing?
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Old 01-11-2016, 11:07 AM   #12567
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
I guess it depends on what you want your winrate to reflect. If you are like me, and want it to reflect nothing but your hourly profit based upon skill, then the only thing you deduct is tips to the dealer, and you do not include freebies or cash promotional wins. I tip the servers out of my pocket, because that is an entertainment expense.
Tips are a cost of doing business. If you have to sit there and have someone bring you food and water, it is a cost. Just like if you travel for business and have some one serve you, it is a business cost, not a personal cost.
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Old 01-11-2016, 11:49 AM   #12568
ZachL
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Completed my first session of the new year up $296 in 1:30 hrs. Table was juicy but the gf wanted to meet up. -ev boys.
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Old 01-11-2016, 11:49 AM   #12569
ZuneIt
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

@ohmyrage - True, but it has nothing to do with poker
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Old 01-11-2016, 04:28 PM   #12570
bstillmatic
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

What is the Commerce and Bicycle Casino version of the 1/2 nl game in Vegas? Ive heard the smallest nl games in LA are unbeatable because of the rake..tks.
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Old 01-11-2016, 06:29 PM   #12571
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by bstillmatic View Post
What is the Commerce and Bicycle Casino version of the 1/2 nl game in Vegas? Ive heard the smallest nl games in LA are unbeatable because of the rake..tks.
The game has a 20bb min/max buy-in.
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Old 01-11-2016, 07:02 PM   #12572
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by bstillmatic View Post
What is the Commerce and Bicycle Casino version of the 1/2 nl game in Vegas? Ive heard the smallest nl games in LA are unbeatable because of the rake..tks.
Bicycle has a 2/3 game that I think is 100 BBs
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Old 01-11-2016, 07:16 PM   #12573
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by outfit View Post
The game has a 20bb min/max buy-in.
At bike you can also buy-in for $60 for their 1/2 game.
My bad, what I said above applies to commerce and gardens.
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Old 01-11-2016, 08:50 PM   #12574
Mat the Gambler
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

So here are my numbers, all at 1/2:

2015: 132 hours played, +$424, $3.21/hour
2016: 12 hours played, +$985, $82.08/hour

It's good to run like God!
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Old 01-11-2016, 08:59 PM   #12575
Mat the Gambler
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by ohmyrage View Post
Tips are a cost of doing business. If you have to sit there and have someone bring you food and water, it is a cost. Just like if you travel for business and have some one serve you, it is a business cost, not a personal cost.
It's not necessary, though. I very rarely order a drink while at the table. Only when I'm up a buy-in or two and I'm trying to promote a table image of a guy on positive tilt.

When you're travelling for business, you don't usually have the option to make yourself meals. But when you're playing poker, you can always grab a drink yourself on the way back from the restroom, or simply not drink at all while playing.
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