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Old 01-06-2016, 08:49 AM   #12526
Garick
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Welcome to the forum, ttourist. As for how to beat loose/passive games, the name of the game is value, value, value. Make a hand better than their calling range and just keep betting. A couple of good threads on the subject are here, and here. A good one for learning to range is here, and there are a lot of other good threads in the Best of LLSNL that you should read.

As far as discussing bankroll and winrate issues, I moved your post in to the right thread for that.
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Old 01-06-2016, 10:48 AM   #12527
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I mean yes, in a perfect world everyone was perfectly rolled for every game they sit in: the reality, not so much.

What people are saying about risk of ruin is also 100 percent true. If you dont have any money, and cant sit in the juicy homegame with drinking and big straddling- it doesent matter how big your winrate could be in that game. It doesent matter if the biggest whale is coming to your casino, ready to spew off buyin after buyin to the table. By going broke you have played yourself out of the sideline.

I know what i am talking about and how that feels. As alot on the forum already know ive had healthproblems over the course of the last year. As a consequence i havent been able to work or play as much as i could before, and combined with smaller amount of income just before this christmas in November start of December i was pretty much busto: for the first time in my livepoker career of 5 years. Its really frightening, because i know i can win in any game i regurarly sit in. But without a roll i am not able to play of course. A good friend staked me in a juicy game in the holidays, and i made 500 BB in a few hours, so now i am back in it and building my roll up again.

My point is that anyone can be broke/busto before they know it, as unfortunate things/life issues can happen faster than you could dream of. Alot of things can be said of OMC players, but one of their edges is that they pretty much never goes broke- they are always in the game. How handcuffed you become when you dont have money to play is something every pokerplayer should remember.
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:50 PM   #12528
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

No one is disagreeing that RoR is real and that busto is real.

Money management is part of the skill set of a successful pro poker player; it is as important of skill as ability to win 10bb/hr, because like you said, you can't win if you are not playing.
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Old 01-06-2016, 10:48 PM   #12529
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Updated the finance spread sheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
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Old 01-06-2016, 11:19 PM   #12530
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Thanks for posting this. I'll go look it over.
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Old 01-07-2016, 03:16 PM   #12531
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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No one is disagreeing that RoR is real and that busto is real.

Money management is part of the skill set of a successful pro poker player; it is as important of skill as ability to win 10bb/hr, because like you said, you can't win if you are not playing.
And I didn't disagree that you can make high variance plays as long as you are rolled for it. I simply said protecting your bankroll is more important than maximizing your winrate.
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Old 01-07-2016, 03:19 PM   #12532
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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And I didn't disagree that you can make high variance plays as long as you are rolled for it. I simply said protecting your bankroll is more important than maximizing your winrate.
Well, isn't maximizing your win rate protecting your bankroll?

You lost me in the context.
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Old 01-07-2016, 03:23 PM   #12533
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Well, isn't maximizing your win rate protecting your bankroll?

You lost me in the context.


Not always, and i also think you understand that. You really dont want to take ultra small edges, like getting it in with QQ against AK preflop IF you have a very small roll and big chance of going busto. What you are looking for is fat value spots to get your chips and as a big fav as possible to protect your small roll. Like getting it in preflop with AA or flop a set/nutty hands before getting your money in.

Lets say you have a 5 buyin bankroll and dont pass up the QQ against AK situations: if you run bad you could easily be on the losing side of those big confrontations 5 times in a row for full stacks= busto before you even know it.

Yes, its not optimal play. Yes, you are passing up small edges you would instajump on with a bigger bankroll- but thats not what this discussion is all about. Its about protecting your small roll and keep you in the game.
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Old 01-07-2016, 03:28 PM   #12534
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

side bar from all of the e-peenin going on here. In blackjack if you are kick ass you can average about a 1.5% edge. Doing a standard count game your max edge on any given hand is around 5%. When you have a 5% edge you are FIST PUMP sending it in. I always lol at people calling those spots marginal when it comes to poker. This is y I have a bankroll

carry on
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Old 01-07-2016, 03:38 PM   #12535
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
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Not always, and i also think you understand that. You really dont want to take ultra small edges, like getting it in with QQ against AK preflop IF you have a very small roll and big chance of going busto. What you are looking for is fat value spots to get your chips and as a big fav as possible to protect your small roll. Like getting it in preflop with AA or flop a set/nutty hands before getting your money in.
Well, I still somewhat disagree.

Considering how often I will get AA, flop a set, or hit nutty hands, if I am only waiting for these spots, I would probably bleed to death and wasted hours in opportunity cost.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour View Post
Lets say you have a 5 buyin bankroll and dont pass up the QQ against AK situations: if you run bad you could easily be on the losing side of those big confrontations 5 times in a row for full stacks= busto before you even know it.
Well, that's obviously true, but anyone who has played thousands of hours of poker can also tell you that you may never get better hands than QQ before you bleed out 5 buyins.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour View Post
Yes, its not optimal play. Yes, you are passing up small edges you would instajump on with a bigger bankroll- but thats not what this discussion is all about. Its about protecting your small roll and keep you in the game.
No one says winning in poker is easy and that's why so few can play winning poker after years.

When you start to get into the mentality of folding to avoid getting sucked out, you are inevitably on the road to busto.
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Old 01-07-2016, 03:40 PM   #12536
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Thank you. Alot of people here are running well so they think they have the game figured out and don't really worry too much about their bankroll. I'm guesing most people haven't actually experienced a bad run yet so they think their 5-10 BI bankroll is sufficient.
Actually I am pretty sure that most big winners here aren't sitting on 5-10 BI BR.

They don't think because they are big winners that they can get by with smaller BR. Most actually believe they're big winners because they have bigger BR.
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Old 01-07-2016, 03:47 PM   #12537
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Actually I am pretty sure that most big winners here aren't sitting on 5-10 BI BR.

They don't think because they are big winners that they can get by with smaller BR. Most actually believe they're big winners because they have bigger BR.
That might be the case but if it were true it would be an exception. Poker players and gamblers, in general, are known for blowing their money on stupid stuff and just keeping what they think is enough for their bankroll.
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Old 01-07-2016, 03:48 PM   #12538
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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The difference is your bet as a percentage of you bankroll. Also, in poker there are many situations where you are much better than a 5% favorite.

yes there are...

that being said the point off my post is that a 5% edge is not marginal (IMHO). casinos were built on much less of an edge. And this is why I personally have a bankroll - passing up on +ev spots is a leak period. Not being rolled for a game is silly. Most gamblers are silly. Very few succeed for a wide array of reasons...the biggest reason is cuz they suck
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Old 01-07-2016, 03:49 PM   #12539
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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That might be the case but if it were true it would be an exception. Poker players and gamblers, in general, are known for blowing their money on stupid stuff and just keeping what they think is enough for their bankroll.

Then they aren't good poker players at least in the professional sense
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Old 01-07-2016, 04:34 PM   #12540
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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You are confusing games. In poker, a 5% edge is considered a marginal situation. That's why QQ vs AK is referred to as a coin flip. In BJ a 5% edge is considered huge because normally the house has an edge.
no sir. I have extensive experience as a perfessional player in both. Logging thousands of hours of advantage play in both. I have not had a job since 1992. I understand edge and how wonderful it is. I also understand bankroll mgmt. In fact ALL of my pro buddies understand it too. I am talking people with thousands upon thousands of hours of pro gamboolin under their belt. Non of my pals who are in my circle of trust have ever gone busto.
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Old 01-07-2016, 05:16 PM   #12541
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Math.

If an infinite roll max edge player can win 10bb / hr, and he takes every 55/45 100bb at risk edge...

Now, player B passes on these because of risk of ruin. Ok.. how common are these spot.

If this spot comes up every 2 hours, (+10bb EV), then player B is capped at winning 5bb/hr. Dropping a once every 2 hour 100bb decision is not going to halve your stdev.. You want to maximize RoR, win half as much IMO.

You can argue these spots are more rare, ok - then it will have less impact on your WR but also less impact on stdev... making the point even more moot.

You want to argue these spots are more common (hourly?).. well then player B is capped at 0bb/hr and guaranteed to go bust.

The other big consideration is this hand does not happen in a vacuum. If you play that risk averse, the other players will pick up on it and all of your made hands get less value.. you get pushed off pots.. you can't win.
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Old 01-07-2016, 06:00 PM   #12542
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Math.

If an infinite roll max edge player can win 10bb / hr, and he takes every 55/45 100bb at risk edge...

Now, player B passes on these because of risk of ruin. Ok.. how common are these spot.

If this spot comes up every 2 hours, (+10bb EV), then player B is capped at winning 5bb/hr. Dropping a once every 2 hour 100bb decision is not going to halve your stdev.. You want to maximize RoR, win half as much IMO.

You can argue these spots are more rare, ok - then it will have less impact on your WR but also less impact on stdev... making the point even more moot.

You want to argue these spots are more common (hourly?).. well then player B is capped at 0bb/hr and guaranteed to go bust.

The other big consideration is this hand does not happen in a vacuum. If you play that risk averse, the other players will pick up on it and all of your made hands get less value.. you get pushed off pots.. you can't win.
Such a good post. This conversation is silly, not just because the points that are being made by one side are silly, but because even if they were true, there's no real practical advice other than to have a big BR. It's not like there's a variance dial you can just turn down at the cost of a slight reduction in your WR. You have to fundamentally change your style, which means you are undoubtedly going to be playing significantly worse.
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Old 01-07-2016, 06:40 PM   #12543
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Players playing on a short roll don't get much consideration from me. I've read that a 20 BI roll is the standard minimum recommendation if you don't have additional income. This is considered to be on the risky side. Playing on a 5-10 BI roll is stupid and begging to go busto.

At 200NL, which is the lowest stake in most places, 20 BI is only $4000. That's not a huge sum of money, and this is coming from a 22 y/o high school dropout. There's no excuse for playing on a short roll.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
You are confusing games. In poker, a 5% edge is considered a marginal situation. That's why QQ vs AK is referred to as a coin flip. In BJ a 5% edge is considered huge because normally the house has an edge.
I started out counting cards, so I literally lol when someone comes out and says a 5% edge is marginal. A 5% edge on a $200 bet at 1|2 is $10 EV. If a crusher makes $20/h at 25 hands per hour then that's $.80 per hand on average. That means in our "marginal," "coin flip" scenario is 12.5x more profit than the average hand. Call that marginal if you want. I call it fist pump slam dunk free money.

Oh, and QQ vs. AK is 56% equity, which is actually a 12% edge on the money we're putting in if HU. We profit $24 in a $400 pot which we put $200 into.
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Old 01-07-2016, 07:24 PM   #12544
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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How do you guys not rank 3 as the best?!?
Don't have the proper bankroll.
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Old 01-07-2016, 07:54 PM   #12545
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Hey all. Update on my live low stakes journey.

After 4-5 years as a rec grinder, I decided to try playing 1-2nl ($300bi & $5 utg straddle) full time.

Here are my stats after 15 months:

Profit: $33k
Hrs: 1827
$/hr: $18.43

As my local player pool keeps games running 24hr, I have mainly put in the most hours playing between 8am and 4pm weekdays, with at least one late night weekend session per week. I found it a lot less stressful to play against the same smaller player pool every day and develop solid reads vs playing evening/weekend large player pool and taking a lot more variance. Also I feel it is better for my health to play daytime was much as I can.

I'm curious of anyone else would like to share some statistics on how they are doing at the various limits, particularly those of you with 1k+ hours.

Good luck all
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Old 01-07-2016, 08:16 PM   #12546
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Nice stats! Do they run a 2/5? If so, I would consider it if I were you. Obviously you can beat the game, and I'd imagine the less ponderous rake and looser action would only help your earning potential.
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Old 01-07-2016, 09:50 PM   #12547
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by TobiasReiper View Post
Hey all. Update on my live low stakes journey.

After 4-5 years as a rec grinder, I decided to try playing 1-2nl ($300bi & $5 utg straddle) full time.

Here are my stats after 15 months:

Profit: $33k
Hrs: 1827
$/hr: $18.43

As my local player pool keeps games running 24hr, I have mainly put in the most hours playing between 8am and 4pm weekdays, with at least one late night weekend session per week. I found it a lot less stressful to play against the same smaller player pool every day and develop solid reads vs playing evening/weekend large player pool and taking a lot more variance. Also I feel it is better for my health to play daytime was much as I can.

I'm curious of anyone else would like to share some statistics on how they are doing at the various limits, particularly those of you with 1k+ hours.

Good luck all
Congrats on the results! A fair number of people posted stats in this thread around the end of the year.
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Old 01-07-2016, 09:53 PM   #12548
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by TobiasReiper View Post
As my local player pool keeps games running 24hr, I have mainly put in the most hours playing between 8am and 4pm weekdays, with at least one late night weekend session per week. I found it a lot less stressful to play against the same smaller player pool every day and develop solid reads vs playing evening/weekend large player pool and taking a lot more variance. Also I feel it is better for my health to play daytime was much as I can.
Good for you!
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Old 01-08-2016, 12:44 AM   #12549
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I always assumed if you had no other source of income, 50 buy-ins plus 6 months living expenses was standard, even if you're a good sized winner at your limit. Is this outdated?
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Old 01-08-2016, 12:51 AM   #12550
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

@DeathCab

I'm fairly certain that is very standard. Anybody doing it with less than that is living an extremely stressful life and barley getting by. Additionally, the inability to gain a healthy roll likely indicates there's a skill-cap they aren't able to surpass.

Also, lololol @ all the troll comments I'm honestly crying from laughter
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