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Old 01-05-2016, 03:21 PM   #12501
bigmuff
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
I wouldn't exactly say "you want your standard deviation to be small". You want your risk of ruin to be small. The #1 way to accomplish that is to have a high win rate. Standard deviation is a product of your play, not a goal of play.
Your goal should be to avoid the risk of ruin which means you should try to avoid putting a lot of money in high variance spots even though they may be + ev. If your bankroll is $1000 and you have pocket queens and some guy goes all in for $1000 with AK you should probably fold even though it is a + ev situation.

Obviously, if your risk of ruin is zero then you should be taking every +ev situation and trying to maximize your winrate.
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Old 01-05-2016, 04:00 PM   #12502
mreps
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by urDONEson79 View Post
I've been reading through this thread and want to thank you all for the wisdom here. This year I'll be playing full time and want to ask for some tax advice. File as professional gambler? I think I read Squid say he files as card player but I could be wrong? Also, is there a need for a separate business account if we're going to be writing off expenses. I play online and will start playing live again in a few months. I live in Las Vegas and would appreciate any advice. Do u guys file your own or have an accountant? Thx in advance.

The IRS does not recognize the difference between a professional gambler and a professional poker player.
http://www.pocketfives.com/articles/tax-qa-585513/#10

Did you check out my spread sheet? I will be filing my own taxes with quarterly estimates. If you live in a state with no income tax my spread sheet will work for you but you might need to make some changes depending on how many more deductions you will have and if you are not filing single.

As far as having a separate bank account, it might be useful if your not good at staying organized. As of now I have several accounts already opened with several different banks. I will be opening another account with a local bank that will only be used for poker profit deposits. Then when I need to I will make transfers from there into my life expense account.
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Old 01-05-2016, 04:09 PM   #12503
urDONEson79
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by mreps View Post
The IRS does not recognize the difference between a professional gambler and a professional poker player.
http://www.pocketfives.com/articles/tax-qa-585513/#10

Did you check out my spread sheet? I will be filing my own taxes with quarterly estimates. If you live in a state with no income tax my spread sheet will work for you but you might need to make some changes depending on how many more deductions you will have and if you are not filing single.

As far as having a separate bank account, it might be useful if your not good at staying organized. As of now I have several accounts already opened with several different banks. I will be opening another account with a local bank that will only be used for poker profit deposits. Then when I need to I will make transfers from there into my life expense account.
Thanks for the reply. I didn't see your spread sheet but will look for it. I did open a separate savings account at the bank where our other accounts are. I'm just struggling on where to start. I record everything on poker journal. Both online and live. I'm married with 3 kiddos and my wife is an RN. I want to get this right as I haven't before. Thanks again.
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Old 01-05-2016, 04:20 PM   #12504
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
Your goal should be to avoid the risk of ruin which means you should try to avoid putting a lot of money in high variance spots even though they may be + ev. If your bankroll is $1000 and you have pocket queens and some guy goes all in for $1000 with AK you should probably fold even though it is a + ev situation.

Obviously, if your risk of ruin is zero then you should be taking every +ev situation and trying to maximize your winrate.

This topic has come up many times before.

Players who keep passing on +EV spots for risk reasons keep that ship sinking slowly.

Marginal EV high variance spots are so rare that they are not what breaks players... losing poker breaks players.
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Old 01-05-2016, 04:20 PM   #12505
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by mreps View Post
The IRS does not recognize the difference between a professional gambler and a professional poker player.
http://www.pocketfives.com/articles/tax-qa-585513/#10

Did you check out my spread sheet? I will be filing my own taxes with quarterly estimates. If you live in a state with no income tax my spread sheet will work for you but you might need to make some changes depending on how many more deductions you will have and if you are not filing single.

As far as having a separate bank account, it might be useful if your not good at staying organized. As of now I have several accounts already opened with several different banks. I will be opening another account with a local bank that will only be used for poker profit deposits. Then when I need to I will make transfers from there into my life expense account.
This article is out of date and should not be relied on. In particular, it states that you can't show a net loss as a professional gambler, which is not correct. The amount of gambling losses that can be claimed is limited to gambling income, but, under a 2011 case, non-gambling trade or business expenses are not subject to that limitation.
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Old 01-05-2016, 04:58 PM   #12506
tellypl
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Newbie question for you folks:

Do you calculate your winrates to:
-Include comp rewards
-Include tips paid (to dealer and for drinks)


Thank you!
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Old 01-05-2016, 05:05 PM   #12507
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by tellypl View Post
Newbie question for you folks:

Do you calculate your winrates to:
-Include comp rewards
-Include tips paid (to dealer and for drinks)


Thank you!
I guess it depends what the purpose of tracking your winrate is / what you are attempting to measure.

If it's just to see how you stack up against your opponents poker skill-wise, I'd probably just include dealer tips (which can be seen as a "normal" cost of playing poker, much like the rake). Including costs such as drinks/food doesn't seem right, otherwise that means your poker skill is dependent on how much food/drink you purchase during your session. And comp rewards can really throw your winrate outta wack, especially if binking a big one (like a bad beat jackpot); I have a separate column for this in my spreadsheet.

But if the purpose is to instead track every single cent spent/made for your poker hobby, maybe you should include everything.

Git'suptoyouandwhatyouareattemptingtomeasureG
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Old 01-05-2016, 07:19 PM   #12508
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
Your goal should be to avoid the risk of ruin which means you should try to avoid putting a lot of money in high variance spots even though they may be + ev.
Very incorrect. Playing to 'not lose' is generally one of the fundamental flaws awful players have.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
If your bankroll is $1000 and you have pocket queens and some guy goes all in for $1000 with AK you should probably fold even though it is a + ev situation.
Generally correct, though it is dependent on your ability to replenish said $1000 away from the table. But considering that the above quote was meant to be a supporting argument for the 1st quote, there are plenty of other situations that would contradict the 1st quote, most of which begin with being properly rolled for the game you're playing
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Old 01-05-2016, 07:22 PM   #12509
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

If you have a game that has a couple massive whales and otherwise soft players, I can see a ~20bb/hour win rate being possible. I've played in a game (1/3 with uncapped buy-in) that had 3-4 semi-regulars who were just super-rich guys who would come, shove/call all in ever other hand, rebuy 5 times, and go home, while the rest of the field was a mix of a few average to good players and then guys who would come and either donk off or bleed off a couple small buyins and then go. One of these guys would buy in for $1k (he usually brought $5k with him) and absolutely refused to fold anything stronger than K-high regardless of the bet size or the board. Had the rake not been insane in that game, someone could maintain a 20bb/hour win rate if you only played when the lineup was good, or had some other scenario where the vast majority of your hours were against deep-pockets whales.

Last edited by HansSprungfeld; 01-05-2016 at 07:27 PM.
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Old 01-05-2016, 08:49 PM   #12510
bigmuff
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
Very incorrect. Playing to 'not lose' is generally one of the fundamental flaws awful players have.



Generally correct, though it is dependent on your ability to replenish said $1000 away from the table. But considering that the above quote was meant to be a supporting argument for the 1st quote, there are plenty of other situations that would contradict the 1st quote, most of which begin with being properly rolled for the game you're playing
You don't seem to understand the concept of risk of ruin. If you have no capital, you can't play poker and you can't win money, so your winrate is meaningless. And I'll try to make this simple for you:

In my example, queens are roughly a 53/47 favorite against AK, so your call will net you around +$60. However, it's a high variance call because you are risking $1000 to win $60. You could easily lose 3 or 4 of these flips in a row. So even though you are making the correct play by calling from an EV standpoint you are making a serious error from a risk of ruin standpoint if your bankroll is only $2000.

Obviously, as I stated before if you can replenish your bankroll then your risk of ruin is essentially zero, so you can go ahead and maximize your winrate. But for the average joe, his risk of ruin is not zero. And I'm not sure why you think trying to avoid the risk of ruin makes someone an awful play poker player.

As for being properly rolled for their game, most people aren't. A 10 BB/100 ($10/hr in 2/3) winner with a standard deviation of 100 needs a bankroll of 1498 BB to reduce his risk of ruin to 5%. And most people aren't anywhere close to being 10 BB/100 winners, despite some of the winrates being posted in here.
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Old 01-05-2016, 09:33 PM   #12511
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
You don't seem to understand the concept of risk of ruin. If you have no capital, you can't play poker and you can't win money, so your winrate is meaningless. And I'll try to make this simple for you:

In my example, queens are roughly a 53/47 favorite against AK, so your call will net you around +$60. However, it's a high variance call because you are risking $1000 to win $60. You could easily lose 3 or 4 of these flips in a row. So even though you are making the correct play by calling from an EV standpoint you are making a serious error from a risk of ruin standpoint if your bankroll is only $2000.

Obviously, as I stated before if you can replenish your bankroll then your risk of ruin is essentially zero, so you can go ahead and maximize your winrate. But for the average joe, his risk of ruin is not zero. And I'm not sure why you think trying to avoid the risk of ruin makes someone an awful play poker player.

As for being properly rolled for their game, most people aren't. A 10 BB/100 ($10/hr in 2/3) winner with a standard deviation of 100 needs a bankroll of 1498 BB to reduce his risk of ruin to 5%. And most people aren't anywhere close to being 10 BB/100 winners, despite some of the winrates being posted in here.
In your example you are playing in the wrong game given the size of your roll and the fact that you have it all on the table.
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Old 01-05-2016, 09:34 PM   #12512
bwslim69
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

A big Part of being a good gambler is money management obv
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Old 01-05-2016, 09:48 PM   #12513
suited fours
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
You don't seem to understand the concept of risk of ruin. If you have no capital, you can't play poker and you can't win money, so your winrate is meaningless. And I'll try to make this simple for you:

In my example, queens are roughly a 53/47 favorite against AK, so your call will net you around +$60. However, it's a high variance call because you are risking $1000 to win $60. You could easily lose 3 or 4 of these flips in a row. So even though you are making the correct play by calling from an EV standpoint you are making a serious error from a risk of ruin standpoint if your bankroll is only $2000.

Obviously, as I stated before if you can replenish your bankroll then your risk of ruin is essentially zero, so you can go ahead and maximize your winrate. But for the average joe, his risk of ruin is not zero. And I'm not sure why you think trying to avoid the risk of ruin makes someone an awful play poker player.

As for being properly rolled for their game, most people aren't. A 10 BB/100 ($10/hr in 2/3) winner with a standard deviation of 100 needs a bankroll of 1498 BB to reduce his risk of ruin to 5%. And most people aren't anywhere close to being 10 BB/100 winners, despite some of the winrates being posted in here.
I'm guessing Johnny understands Risk of Ruin just fine. I suspect you'll find little patience in this forum for strategic discussion for the under-rolled player.
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Old 01-05-2016, 09:49 PM   #12514
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Lol dude he understands RoR

What he's saying is that your argument to avoid "high variance spots" even though they may be +Ev is incorrect UNLESS justifiable by RoR. If that is the case, then you are likely under rolled for the game you're playing (which is exactly what he said).

So say you have 50-100 buy ins for your game, you'll happily take any 55/45 spots knowing its long-term profitable. If you have 5-10 buy ins, it might be best to avoid those spots; however if you're in that spot to begin with, you're likely playing too big for your bankroll.

High variance spots are a very important part of a crushers WR. My WR drastically shot up once my measly 5 buyin bankroll went to 20 buy ins and I was able to play correct poker instead of always attempting to reduce variance with ever line I took.
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:30 PM   #12515
bigmuff
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Lol dude he understands RoR

What he's saying is that your argument to avoid "high variance spots" even though they may be +Ev is incorrect UNLESS justifiable by RoR. If that is the case, then you are likely under rolled for the game you're playing (which is exactly what he said).

So say you have 50-100 buy ins for your game, you'll happily take any 55/45 spots knowing its long-term profitable. If you have 5-10 buy ins, it might be best to avoid those spots; however if you're in that spot to begin with, you're likely playing too big for your bankroll.

High variance spots are a very important part of a crushers WR. My WR drastically shot up once my measly 5 buyin bankroll went to 20 buy ins and I was able to play correct poker instead of always attempting to reduce variance with ever line I took.
Thanks for conceding my point.

As for being underolled, the lowest stakes in most places is 1-2. So you need around $3k to be properly rolled for the game and that's assuming you have a 3 BB/HR win rate. I can assure you many 1/2 bankrolls aren't close to $3k and these people should be prioritizing protecting their bankroll above maximizing their win rate.
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:36 PM   #12516
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
Thanks for conceding my point.

As for being underolled, the lowest stakes in most places is 1-2. So you need around $3k to be properly rolled for the game and that's assuming you have a 3 BB/HR win rate. I can assure you many 1/2 bankrolls aren't close to $3k and these people should be prioritizing protecting their bankroll above maximizing their win rate.
Is it your contention that many pros have less than 15BI at 1/2 with no other source of income? Lol they aren't pros bruh
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:36 PM   #12517
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
This topic has come up many times before.

Players who keep passing on +EV spots for risk reasons keep that ship sinking slowly.

Marginal EV high variance spots are so rare that they are not what breaks players... losing poker breaks players.
I took an embarrassingly long time to fully understand this... Smh.
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:40 PM   #12518
feel wrath
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
Thanks for conceding my point.



As for being underolled, the lowest stakes in most places is 1-2. So you need around $3k to be properly rolled for the game and that's assuming you have a 3 BB/HR win rate. I can assure you many 1/2 bankrolls aren't close to $3k and these people should be prioritizing protecting their bankroll above maximizing their win rate.

But this is a straw man.

You're overriding a win rate conversation with a bankroll issue
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:41 PM   #12519
bwslim69
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
This topic has come up many times before.

Players who keep passing on +EV spots for risk reasons keep that ship sinking slowly.

Marginal EV high variance spots are so rare that they are not what breaks players... losing poker breaks players.

Yeah pretty much this
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Old 01-06-2016, 02:00 AM   #12520
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by HansSprungfeld View Post
If you have a game that has a couple massive whales and otherwise soft players, I can see a ~20bb/hour win rate being possible. I've played in a game (1/3 with uncapped buy-in) that had 3-4 semi-regulars who were just super-rich guys who would come, shove/call all in ever other hand, rebuy 5 times, and go home, while the rest of the field was a mix of a few average to good players and then guys who would come and either donk off or bleed off a couple small buyins and then go. One of these guys would buy in for $1k (he usually brought $5k with him) and absolutely refused to fold anything stronger than K-high regardless of the bet size or the board. Had the rake not been insane in that game, someone could maintain a 20bb/hour win rate if you only played when the lineup was good, or had some other scenario where the vast majority of your hours were against deep-pockets whales.
You are basically describing the greatest game imaginable. If anything, it's an argument that 20bb/hr is unsustainable.
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Old 01-06-2016, 02:11 AM   #12521
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
Thanks for conceding my point.

As for being underolled, the lowest stakes in most places is 1-2. So you need around $3k to be properly rolled for the game and that's assuming you have a 3 BB/HR win rate. I can assure you many 1/2 bankrolls aren't close to $3k and these people should be prioritizing protecting their bankroll above maximizing their win rate.
What you failed to understand is that most players do win the same amount of money in certain hands, such as FH over FH, nut flush over 2nd flush, big draw getting there against set, and so forth...

Big winners win those hands just as much as marginal winners or even losing players. What separate big winners from these guys is that they win other hands that are EV neutral or even losers because they are able to recognize small EV spots and capitalize on them.
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Old 01-06-2016, 04:03 AM   #12522
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Apparently the point he was making was that there is a vast amount of "pros" who have less then 3k to their name and this rather large select group of pros should be more worried about their RoR.
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Old 01-06-2016, 05:44 AM   #12523
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Thanks guys. Now I get to find out if 2015 was a fluke fish on a heater.

First two sessions of 2016 have been promising.

1/2: +2,350 (8 hours @ 2/5)
1/3: +1,480 (5.5 hours @ 1/2)

Net: +3,830

Took me 121 hours over 23 sessions to clear that amount in 2015 (hit it March 31). The inclination to make a run at this full time grows stronger and stronger as the months go by.
Maybe ask to change your job to part time hours or become a consultant/contractor in your field, maybe even FOR the company you work for currently.

I have a small semi seasonal business that I own that takes maybe 15-20 hours of my time these days. It feels great to not work full time doing that either. I have 2 separate incomes. Doing ANYTHING full time can get stale(taken a few shots with it as poker and it wasn't for me)! Whenever I burn out on one, I turn to the other to take up my time and it works out pretty good. Also, work/business skills are more important and relevant to life that I think you need to keep them sharp and not become super specialized/pigeon holed into poker.

1. Life balance
2. Keep marketable work skills sharp
3. Don't have to explain to people what you do for a living*
4. Basic bills always get paid(takes care of emotional drain)
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Old 01-06-2016, 05:58 AM   #12524
ohmyrage
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

"Alleged" 2015 results

$.25/.50 Hours 100 @11ph
*no cap buyin/no rake*
$1/2 Hours 291 @32ph
*no cap buyins/high rake*

$1/3 Hours 99 @24ph
*100bb max casino
$2/5 Hours 163 @ 29ph
*100bb max casino
$2/5 plo 21 @ 165ph

$5/T Hours 10 @-13ph

Tourneys hours 57 @17ph

Total hours 741 @31ph
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Old 01-06-2016, 08:25 AM   #12525
ttourist
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$2/$5 live cash game

Firstly, sorry for my bad english

I am a successful tournament player but in my country it is almost impossible to find tournaments so i am thinking if i can make money in this 2/5 live cash game

This game runs everyday except sundays, and most of the time 8 decent/good players and 2 fishes (big fish)

I don't think i am a good cash game player. My style is: When i have a big hand, i bet hard and trying to see cheap flops in position. But my reads not well. I am struggling to put them in a hand.

But when these big fishes are playing, they are calling every bet with any two in all streets. They call any bet with any backdoor draw, any pair, with everything. For example, if you bet on a KQ8 rainbow flop and they fold, they have to have something like 25off.

So my question is if i can make money out of these fishes

In these games, you can buy in minimum $150 and maximum $500 and after 2 hours of play, you can cash out and continue with whatever amount you want to (150 min.)

My plan is to buy in full and when i have a premium hand, i will bet it hard and will try to see cheap flops in position with middle pairs and suited connectors, one gappers, suited aces and broadway cards and when i make my hand, i will bet hard so with this kind of play, can i make money in long term? How much bankroll i need? Should i play a different style?

My results until now (approximately):
With fishes in the game:

1 - breakeven
2 - $6500 profit
3 - $1200 profit
4 - €1500 loss
5 - breakeven
6 - $2600 profit
7 - $2200 loss

Without fishes:

1 - $2200 loss
2 - $1800 loss

The problem is that this is not a big sample and i might have bankroll problems in the upcoming games
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