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Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

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Old 01-04-2016, 08:12 PM   #12476
suited fours
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
I never said he claimed it was sustainable. A more interesting number would be how much better than EV he is running. Super deep doesn't really matter because it is very rare for someone to lose 200bb in one hand, even 150 BB is rare. As for high variance, it just means he is putting in a lot of money in marginal spots. High variance play isn't going to increase your winrate by 80 BB/100. All it does is marginally increase your win rate while causing your SD to shoot through the roof.
His claim has been gii super deep, FWIW.
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Old 01-04-2016, 08:22 PM   #12477
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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I never said he claimed it was sustainable. A more interesting number would be how much better than EV he is running. Super deep doesn't really matter because it is very rare for someone to lose 200bb in one hand, even 150 BB is rare. As for high variance, it just means he is putting in a lot of money in marginal spots. High variance play isn't going to increase your winrate by 80 BB/100. All it does is marginally increase your win rate while causing your SD to shoot through the roof.
This doesn't follow, because one thing people can do to avoid losing 200 BBs in a single hand is lose 25 or 40 BBs with much higher frequency (by overfolding strong but non-nut hands).
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Old 01-04-2016, 08:40 PM   #12478
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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His claim has been gii super deep, FWIW.
So all his opponents have to do is sit back wait for a strong hand and let him donk off his stack. And even if his opponents only have bluff catchers, assuming he is putting in $500 to win $100, all his opponents have to do is pick him off 1 out of every 6 attempts to break even. So his bluff has to work at least 83% of the time to be +EV. I find it difficult to believe he is bluffing his way to >100 BB/100.
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Old 01-04-2016, 09:03 PM   #12479
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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This doesn't follow, because one thing people can do to avoid losing 200 BBs in a single hand is lose 25 or 40 BBs with much higher frequency (by overfolding strong but non-nut hands).
If people are constantly losing 25-40 BB because they are afraid of losing 200BB then they shouldn't be playing deep stacks. And if you are bloating the pot to where you have invested 25-40 BB with a marginal hand that deep you are probably making a mistake anyways.

Usually, the only times you win 150-200B are when you cooler someone or you suck out on a draw. Most pots aren't going to get that big and if someone is always representing the nuts in a medium sized pot eventually he is going to get called.
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Old 01-04-2016, 10:12 PM   #12480
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Super deep doesn't really matter because it is very rare for someone to lose 200bb in one hand, even 150 BB is rare.
This is a little ridiculous. People GII light for much deeper stacks in my experience.
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Old 01-05-2016, 02:09 AM   #12481
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Not in most of the deep BI games in my experience.

People tend to buy in max to not appear weak, and yet most people who buy in max almost never make a single big bet in a session.

Some sort of fish thinking that is prevalent in LLSNL.
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Old 01-05-2016, 02:11 AM   #12482
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

FWIW, when people claim to make 20bb+/hr and don't play more hours or move up, IMO, is just blowing smoke.

It just doesn't make any sense.
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Old 01-05-2016, 05:14 AM   #12483
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Not in most of the deep BI games in my experience.

People tend to buy in max to not appear weak, and yet most people who buy in max almost never make a single big bet in a session.

Some sort of fish thinking that is prevalent in LLSNL.
Interesting. My game is 100bb cap, but there are so many games that there are generally several really deep tables. I guess that makes for a different dynamic.
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Old 01-05-2016, 06:45 AM   #12484
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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FWIW, when people claim to make 20bb+/hr and don't play more hours or move up, IMO, is just blowing smoke.

It just doesn't make any sense.
I agree with you about playing more hours. If you're a crusher you almost have to play more. It doesn't make sense to not play more.

Don't agree with moving up if you beat a game for 20 bigs an hour. Why bother moving up if you're making that much with such little risk?
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Old 01-05-2016, 07:15 AM   #12485
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Lol, I would snap quit my job if I am making 88/hr in 1/3.
I'd get a job just so I could quit it.
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Old 01-05-2016, 07:45 AM   #12486
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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FWIW, when people claim to make 20bb+/hr and don't play more hours or move up, IMO, is just blowing smoke.

It just doesn't make any sense.
I work 50+ hours a week at a good ft job, and I also like to spend time with my family, and I have other hobbies. Also, this is the best game available to me in my geographic area. Sense.

Last edited by DonkeyCopter; 01-05-2016 at 08:08 AM.
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Old 01-05-2016, 08:08 AM   #12487
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

The game I play in is probably a bit unique in that people generally dont leave the table until they have lost multiple buyins (this is a 100bb max buyin game). Even if I sit at the table and no one is deep, it generally doesn't take long for a couple players to get 300bb+ deep.

I usually play pretty maniacal until I have at least 200bb. At that point, the biggest skills that come into play are:

1. Not making huge mistakes. It's ok to make some marginal plays that get to showdown when deep, but don't let a flop mistake commit you. Make funky plays cheap.

2. Timing. If you can find a the time when someone wants to make a stand against your aggressiveness, you can win a big stack. The nice thing about aggression when deep is the the aggressor gets to set prices more profitably - bluffs can be effectively cheaper, and value fatter in $. Most 1/3 players aren't going to figure out sizing tells, especially if you are "bluffing" big bets with nutty draws occasionally, so timing large value bets (thin or fat) can win you a lot of money.

3. Playing like a nit when the typical 1/3 player is betting into you after the flop.
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Old 01-05-2016, 08:57 AM   #12488
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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3. Playing like a nit when the typical 1/3 player is betting into you after the flop.

This this this, especially the max buy / no big bet guys mentioned in the previous posts
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Old 01-05-2016, 09:02 AM   #12489
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Late to the party with 2015 results:

Only played 25 hours last year between January and October, have been playing 3-4 days a week since then. Almost all 1/2 with a few sessions of 1/3

Lost 250bb on NYE but won it back the next day



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Old 01-05-2016, 09:51 AM   #12490
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Don't think he claimed it was sustainable. Donkey has explained in the past how he achieves super deep and high variance play. His stddev per hour would be an interesting number.

I, like others, am curious why he doesn't play more hours.
The stddev I get from my sample is $116 when I calculate it using the "assumed consistency" error where each session assumes the $/hour was the same. I'm not sure how to extrapolate the actual stddev number from there, or get around that error in excel. I have my sessions logged on both the Poker Income app and in excel, and would be happy to provide the data set if someone can help me with the calc.
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:13 AM   #12491
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

ok newb question

can someone please explain to me stddev...and how to interpret it

thanks!
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Old 01-05-2016, 10:14 AM   #12492
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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ok newb question

can someone please explain to me stddev...and how to interpret it

thanks!

One suggestion for whomever answers this - please make a new thread for it. Otherwise it will get buried in this thread and forever lost.
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Old 01-05-2016, 11:00 AM   #12493
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
If people are constantly losing 25-40 BB because they are afraid of losing 200BB then they shouldn't be playing deep stacks. And if you are bloating the pot to where you have invested 25-40 BB with a marginal hand that deep you are probably making a mistake anyways.
You may be surprised to learn that some people play poker badly.
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Old 01-05-2016, 11:04 AM   #12494
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Usually, the only times you win 150-200B are when you cooler someone or you suck out on a draw. Most pots aren't going to get that big and if someone is always representing the nuts in a medium sized pot eventually he is going to get called.
Is this your expert opinion based on years of research and playing at a multitude of casinos?
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Old 01-05-2016, 01:59 PM   #12495
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Is this your expert opinion based on years of research and playing at a multitude of casinos?
It's based on my experience playing in So Cal and Las Vegas where the player pool is decent. Other knowledgeable people seem to agree.

If you are playing somewhere people lose 200 BB with bottom pair every other hand then more power to you. I'd like to hear your more of your expert LLSNL opinion on the matter.
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Old 01-05-2016, 02:08 PM   #12496
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
FWIW, when people claim to make 20bb+/hr and don't play more hours or move up, IMO, is just blowing smoke.

It just doesn't make any sense.
Are you doubting his posted results?

Maybe I'm being too naive, but I believe them.

But it's a lol 300 hours. Which is lollololol. He'll start to get an inkling of a better idea of how he's actually doing at 1000 / 2000 / 3000 / etc. hours, and of course by that time the game he is playing in / the strategy people use against him / etc. will probably have changed drastically.

Gnicestart,butdon'tletitgotoyourhead,imoG
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Old 01-05-2016, 02:25 PM   #12497
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Yeah - people way underestimating what can happen in 300 hours. Guy probably crushes and is running hot. Results over a few hundred hours can seem other worldly
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Old 01-05-2016, 02:38 PM   #12498
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by bmoney View Post
ok newb question

can someone please explain to me stddev...and how to interpret it

thanks!
Without getting too technical, standard deviation is used to measure the variance within a set of numbers in this case, your poker winnings. Imagine a bell curve divided in the middle into eight sections. The two sections closest to line in the middle( the mean) will represent ~68% of your population and is the first standard deviation. The second standard deviation is the next two sections to the left and to the right and should be ~27% of your population. The third and forth standard deviations represent 99.73 and 99.994 of your population respectively. As you can see 95%, of your population will fall within two standard deviations of the mean.

With regards to poker, ideally you want to minimize your variance to avoid the risk of ruin, so you want your standard deviation to be small. Two people can both average +$50 per session, but if one guy has results of +50, + 25 and +75 and another +1200, -550, -500 the second guy is more likely to go broke.

Last edited by bigmuff; 01-05-2016 at 02:43 PM.
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Old 01-05-2016, 02:44 PM   #12499
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I wouldn't exactly say "you want your standard deviation to be small". You want your risk of ruin to be small. The #1 way to accomplish that is to have a high win rate. Standard deviation is a product of your play, not a goal of play.
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Old 01-05-2016, 03:17 PM   #12500
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I've been reading through this thread and want to thank you all for the wisdom here. This year I'll be playing full time and want to ask for some tax advice. File as professional gambler? I think I read Squid say he files as card player but I could be wrong? Also, is there a need for a separate business account if we're going to be writing off expenses. I play online and will start playing live again in a few months. I live in Las Vegas and would appreciate any advice. Do u guys file your own or have an accountant? Thx in advance.
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