Thanks guys. Now I get to find out if 2015 was a fluke fish on a heater.

First two sessions of 2016 have been promising.

1/2: +2,350 (8 hours @ 2/5)
1/3: +1,480 (5.5 hours @ 1/2)

Net: +3,830

Took me 121 hours over 23 sessions to clear that amount in 2015 (hit it March 31). The inclination to make a run at this full time grows stronger and stronger as the months go by.

Johnny,

You are over-rolled for 2/5 NL, right? And you currently dislike your job, right?

If so, you might as well quit your job and jump into poker full time. Life is too short to keep doing something that you don't like.

FWIW, I think that your local 2/5 NL 1k cap game can be beaten for $50/hour if you become one of the top 5% in that player pool ($70/hour if you become one of the top 1% in that player pool). I am basing this off info from local reports that I have heard through the grapevine.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

I made some corrections with the SE and Income tax, and added some notes to explain the tax calculations . I am getting the same results as the online tax estimators. I am still not finished. I am going to remove the Report sheet and just add the quarterly results to the Finance sheet. I plan on adding a solo 401k contributions limit calculator, maybe a few charts, charity deductions, and anything else that might be useful that I think of.

This is still a work in progress, feed back will be appreciated!

The variance in game quality isn't that different than the variance in the cards. Both influence your standard deviation of your winrate so both are accounted for when calculating win rate confidence intervals. The only difference is that the cards never change, but the average overall game quality may change such that it will be better or worse moving forward. This isn't easily measured statistically, but it is something you should take into account when making decisions based on a hourly rate.

2015 giraffes?

So after some pretty decent results at my 1/3 NL game...

2010: $26.43/hr (8.81 bb/hr) over 125:10 hours
2011: $25.88/hr (8.63 bb/hr) over 386:10 hours
2012: $31.18/hr (10.39 bb/hr) over 410:45 hours
2013: $35.48/hr (11.83 bb/hr) over 568:20 hours
2014: $20.62/hr (6.87 bb/hr) over 553:50 hours

... my 2015 was a train wreck:

2015: $7.90/hr (2.63 bb/hr) over 582:10 hours



Oh well. I did manage to get in my most hours and sessions, so I kinda consider that a win (since I do enjoy playing). But *puke* at the results, plus I kinda think they are indicative of where things are headed.

Grocketingtowardsbreakevenin2016!G

What's the average over the last 1500 hours and tbh I think you just ran like ****ing god for a while and dodged any big DS then had 2x in a 500 hour stretch

Johnny, unless I'm missing something, I think you're figuring your bb/hr rate incorrectly at 1/3 NL. Should be 5.5 bb/hr, not 3.3 bb/hr, no?

GIjustincreasedyourwinrateby2.2bb/hr,you'rewelcome,enquirewithinaboutmycoachingrates G

I'm also concluding this is exactly what happened: basically went on a 23 month winstreak, which is sorta insane when I'm only putting in ~45 hours / 5 sessions a month (i.e. you'd simply expect some bad times once and a while, but I never had any *at all* during that stretch).

Gpendulumswingingbacknow,andhardG

If your new year's resolutions included trolling the win rate thread, mission accomplished.

I believe Johnny's lifetime 2-5 WR is around $40 with 1 stddev on those results probably roughly somewhere between $23 and $32. If he gets coolered twice tomorrow his lifetime win rate will drop to $32. He has very strong 1-2 and 1-3 results also over a small sample that lend some additional confidence to his 2-5 results.

If memory serves, he's been a serious parttime player for just under a year and he makes serious bank at his soul crushing job.

While diving in full time might be the right decision for him, lol at "you might as well quit your job".

Take a vacation and try playing full time hours.

It's not exactly fun, and certainly not for everyone.

You can work your ass off in poker and get nowhere. Think of it as a dead end job, and that is probably all poker will be

One thing great about poker is that it's almost like having membership to a nationwide club, and you can always hit one up on vacation and mingle with the local degens.

Vacation won't fully simulate what it's like to be a pro. It'll be like dipping your toes in the pool when the water is 10 ft deep. There's no way to simulate the day in and day out soul crushing variance that is being a full time poker pro.

If you're in an upswing, you'll want to take extra days off because you know the doomswitch is around the corner and volume suffers as a consequence. If you're in a downswing, sometimes you need to take a break to get back in a decent frame of mind, or if you're in a really bad downswing you just kinda feel sick to your stomach and don't feel like playing. Again, volume suffers as a consequence. Or maybe you're not going through a significant upswing or downswing but the built up stress of playing poker day in and out gets to you and volume suffers as a consequence.

When you turn pro it's because your technical and A/B game have a significant edge on the field but that says nothing about how well you can grind through and put up the necessary volume in the face of variance. There is close to 0 sample size on that when turning pro. So even if your technical game is good enough to go pro, going pro is still a big risk because of the unknown in your mental game.

So my advice to JohnnyB is don't go pro until you have a big enough sample size on your technical game and the hourly is big enough to where it would be dumb to not try and go pro relative to the alternatives.

2015 1/2 and 1/3 (mostly 1/3)

Hours: 298
Profit: $26,260
Hourly: $88.09
Lifetime Hourly at Stake: $61.62

So many people making 30-40+ bb/100 ITT. Who says poker is hard?

Lol, I would snap quit my job if I am making 88/hr in 1/3.

especially if my job was killing the 5/10 game for 75/hr!

Just got around to figuring out this part of the question: exactly $19.00/hr (6.33 bb/hr).

GprobablyalotbetterguessofwhereI'll*hopefully*endu pG

Basically, you are stacking someone once every 2.5 hours. To have a winrate this high:

You are hitting all your draws
Opponents are missing all their draws.
You are never getting coolered
You are coolering people.

People didn't have winrates this high even back during the poker boom. I mean you are saying you winrate is > 100bb/100.
Unless people are constantly calling for stacks with bottom pair, I don't see how this winrate is sustainable.

Don't think he claimed it was sustainable. Donkey has explained in the past how he achieves super deep and high variance play. His stddev per hour would be an interesting number.

I, like others, am curious why he doesn't play more hours.

I never said he claimed it was sustainable. A more interesting number would be how much better than EV he is running. Super deep doesn't really matter because it is very rare for someone to lose 200bb in one hand, even 150 BB is rare. As for high variance, it just means he is putting in a lot of money in marginal spots. High variance play isn't going to increase your winrate by 80 BB/100. All it does is marginally increase your win rate while causing your SD to shoot through the roof.

His claim has been gii super deep, FWIW.

This doesn't follow, because one thing people can do to avoid losing 200 BBs in a single hand is lose 25 or 40 BBs with much higher frequency (by overfolding strong but non-nut hands).

So all his opponents have to do is sit back wait for a strong hand and let him donk off his stack. And even if his opponents only have bluff catchers, assuming he is putting in $500 to win $100, all his opponents have to do is pick him off 1 out of every 6 attempts to break even. So his bluff has to work at least 83% of the time to be +EV. I find it difficult to believe he is bluffing his way to >100 BB/100.

If people are constantly losing 25-40 BB because they are afraid of losing 200BB then they shouldn't be playing deep stacks. And if you are bloating the pot to where you have invested 25-40 BB with a marginal hand that deep you are probably making a mistake anyways.

Usually, the only times you win 150-200B are when you cooler someone or you suck out on a draw. Most pots aren't going to get that big and if someone is always representing the nuts in a medium sized pot eventually he is going to get called.

This is a little ridiculous. People GII light for much deeper stacks in my experience.

Not in most of the deep BI games in my experience.

People tend to buy in max to not appear weak, and yet most people who buy in max almost never make a single big bet in a session.

Some sort of fish thinking that is prevalent in LLSNL.