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Old 01-04-2016, 07:31 AM   #12451
YGOchamp
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by mreps View Post
Self employment tax consists of 12.4% social security tax and 2.9% for medicare. The total equals 15.3%.
After that is taken out of your profit then you pay federal income taxes.
This is only if you file as a pro.

I did not file as a pro last year so I paid half of the self employment tax on my winnings.

If I did file as a pro and poker was my only income, my taxable income would only be $8973 after deductions. I would end up paying $893 in federal income taxes and $2930 in self employment taxes :/.

If I file as unemployed and reported my income as gambling(hobby) I would only pay $1110 in federal income taxes.

Wait so if you're saying it's 15.3%, why is the amount you listed($2930) 30% of your income?

Additionally, I thought SE tax and filing as a gambler were two completely different things if I'm not mistaken.
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Old 01-04-2016, 08:27 AM   #12452
bwslim69
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Wait so if you're saying it's 15.3%, why is the amount you listed($2930) 30% of your income?



Additionally, I thought SE tax and filing as a gambler were two completely different things if I'm not mistaken.

The 15.3% is accurate but I'm not sure his calculations are. If you file as a gambler you are subject to the SE tax on taxable profits. Not sure what you mean 2 separate things.
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Old 01-04-2016, 08:32 AM   #12453
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Wait so if you're saying it's 15.3%, why is the amount you listed($2930) 30% of your income?

Additionally, I thought SE tax and filing as a gambler were two completely different things if I'm not mistaken.
Anybody who is self-employed pays both halves of the social security tax. If you file as a professional poker player, or as a self-employed anything, you have to pay both halves.

If you're an employee in any industry, your employer is paying half of the social security tax--you only see half of the tax as a withholding on your W2; if you then profit from poker on the side as a hobby, you pay income tax on your winnings, but you don't pay social security tax on it. The social security tax is only a tax on wages from work; income tax is a tax on all income from whatever source derived.
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Old 01-04-2016, 08:33 AM   #12454
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Wait so if you're saying it's 15.3%, why is the amount you listed($2930) 30% of your income?

Additionally, I thought SE tax and filing as a gambler were two completely different things if I'm not mistaken.
Pretty sure the 30% figure is income tax + social security tax.
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Old 01-04-2016, 08:35 AM   #12455
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Hmm so what is the upside to declaring yourself a poker pro rather than unemployed?
The amount of social security you recieve at retirement is tied to the amount you paid in while working. Declaring as a pro and paying your social security tax entitles you to draw more social security when you retire.

Also, it keeps you out of prison for tax fraud.
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Old 01-04-2016, 10:24 AM   #12456
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
The amount of social security you recieve at retirement is tied to the amount you paid in while working. Declaring as a pro and paying your social security tax entitles you to draw more social security when you retire.

Also, it keeps you out of prison for tax fraud.
LOL @ "social security you receive at retirement." If there is even such a thing in 30+ years, they'll have had to print so much new money, that the amount I contributed will be peanuts.
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Old 01-04-2016, 11:41 AM   #12457
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Very nice work Johny
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Good stuff Jonny
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Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer View Post
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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
Nice work, johnny.
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Gg Buz
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johnny -- awesome, and thanks for sharing your stats in detail. Always interesting to see.
Thanks guys. Now I get to find out if 2015 was a fluke fish on a heater.

First two sessions of 2016 have been promising.

1/2: +2,350 (8 hours @ 2/5)
1/3: +1,480 (5.5 hours @ 1/2)

Net: +3,830

Took me 121 hours over 23 sessions to clear that amount in 2015 (hit it March 31). The inclination to make a run at this full time grows stronger and stronger as the months go by.
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Old 01-04-2016, 12:52 PM   #12458
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Johnny,

You are over-rolled for 2/5 NL, right? And you currently dislike your job, right?

If so, you might as well quit your job and jump into poker full time. Life is too short to keep doing something that you don't like.

FWIW, I think that your local 2/5 NL 1k cap game can be beaten for $50/hour if you become one of the top 5% in that player pool ($70/hour if you become one of the top 1% in that player pool). I am basing this off info from local reports that I have heard through the grapevine.
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:10 PM   #12459
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

I made some corrections with the SE and Income tax, and added some notes to explain the tax calculations . I am getting the same results as the online tax estimators. I am still not finished. I am going to remove the Report sheet and just add the quarterly results to the Finance sheet. I plan on adding a solo 401k contributions limit calculator, maybe a few charts, charity deductions, and anything else that might be useful that I think of.

This is still a work in progress, feed back will be appreciated!
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:28 PM   #12460
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by stakman1011 View Post
I know this isn't a new idea or anything, but I'm getting back into live poker again after some time off, and playing this weekend struck me how silly the idea of an hourly rate is (at least in a room like Borgata).

I played 2/5 this weekend. I played 20ish hours split into 5 sessions. For two of those sessions, the table was so good that I would be absolutely shocked if my hourly wasn't near $100 per, maybe even better than that. In one of the sessions, when I had the absolute Jesus seat... I would absolutely bet I could have sustained $100+ an hour if there were some way for those exact conditions to remain forever (which of course there isn't).

For the other three sessions, I could probably stay ahead of the rake if I played really well. My absolute laser-focused A game may have been like a $10-an-hour winner in those games. I'm not even sure of that.

I know none of this is breaking any new ground, just seems so impossible to me to even hazard a guess at my "winrate" in 2/5 when the table conditions swing so hugely.

The reason I think I do well overall is I played two long sessions at the great tables and never more than 2-3 downs at the bad tables.

Trying to put a number on my winrate seems basically like an exercise in asking how well I'm going to table select/how good I'm going to run with random assignments of table/seats.
The variance in game quality isn't that different than the variance in the cards. Both influence your standard deviation of your winrate so both are accounted for when calculating win rate confidence intervals. The only difference is that the cards never change, but the average overall game quality may change such that it will be better or worse moving forward. This isn't easily measured statistically, but it is something you should take into account when making decisions based on a hourly rate.
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:30 PM   #12461
gobbledygeek
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

2015 giraffes?

So after some pretty decent results at my 1/3 NL game...

2010: $26.43/hr (8.81 bb/hr) over 125:10 hours
2011: $25.88/hr (8.63 bb/hr) over 386:10 hours
2012: $31.18/hr (10.39 bb/hr) over 410:45 hours
2013: $35.48/hr (11.83 bb/hr) over 568:20 hours
2014: $20.62/hr (6.87 bb/hr) over 553:50 hours

... my 2015 was a train wreck:

2015: $7.90/hr (2.63 bb/hr) over 582:10 hours



Oh well. I did manage to get in my most hours and sessions, so I kinda consider that a win (since I do enjoy playing). But *puke* at the results, plus I kinda think they are indicative of where things are headed.

Grocketingtowardsbreakevenin2016!G
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:32 PM   #12462
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

What's the average over the last 1500 hours and tbh I think you just ran like ****ing god for a while and dodged any big DS then had 2x in a 500 hour stretch
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:40 PM   #12463
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
2015 is in the books for me. Proud of the year I put in and looking forward to bigger and better things in 2016. Here's some data. My 1/3 stats went to **** in December as I realized it's a pretty bad game at my primary room and only worth playing at the secondary casino.





Johnny, unless I'm missing something, I think you're figuring your bb/hr rate incorrectly at 1/3 NL. Should be 5.5 bb/hr, not 3.3 bb/hr, no?

GIjustincreasedyourwinrateby2.2bb/hr,you'rewelcome,enquirewithinaboutmycoachingrates G
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Old 01-04-2016, 01:44 PM   #12464
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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tbh I think you just ran like ****ing god for a while and dodged any big DS
I'm also concluding this is exactly what happened: basically went on a 23 month winstreak, which is sorta insane when I'm only putting in ~45 hours / 5 sessions a month (i.e. you'd simply expect some bad times once and a while, but I never had any *at all* during that stretch).

Gpendulumswingingbacknow,andhardG
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Old 01-04-2016, 02:02 PM   #12465
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
Johnny,

You are over-rolled for 2/5 NL, right? And you currently dislike your job, right?

If so, you might as well quit your job and jump into poker full time. Life is too short to keep doing something that you don't like.

FWIW, I think that your local 2/5 NL 1k cap game can be beaten for $50/hour if you become one of the top 5% in that player pool ($70/hour if you become one of the top 1% in that player pool). I am basing this off info from local reports that I have heard through the grapevine.
If your new year's resolutions included trolling the win rate thread, mission accomplished.

I believe Johnny's lifetime 2-5 WR is around $40 with 1 stddev on those results probably roughly somewhere between $23 and $32. If he gets coolered twice tomorrow his lifetime win rate will drop to $32. He has very strong 1-2 and 1-3 results also over a small sample that lend some additional confidence to his 2-5 results.

If memory serves, he's been a serious parttime player for just under a year and he makes serious bank at his soul crushing job.

While diving in full time might be the right decision for him, lol at "you might as well quit your job".
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Old 01-04-2016, 02:28 PM   #12466
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Take a vacation and try playing full time hours.

It's not exactly fun, and certainly not for everyone.

You can work your ass off in poker and get nowhere. Think of it as a dead end job, and that is probably all poker will be

One thing great about poker is that it's almost like having membership to a nationwide club, and you can always hit one up on vacation and mingle with the local degens.
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Old 01-04-2016, 03:08 PM   #12467
daniel9861
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Take a vacation and try playing full time hours.

It's not exactly fun, and certainly not for everyone.

You can work your ass off in poker and get nowhere. Think of it as a dead end job, and that is probably all poker will be

One thing great about poker is that it's almost like having membership to a nationwide club, and you can always hit one up on vacation and mingle with the local degens.
Vacation won't fully simulate what it's like to be a pro. It'll be like dipping your toes in the pool when the water is 10 ft deep. There's no way to simulate the day in and day out soul crushing variance that is being a full time poker pro.

If you're in an upswing, you'll want to take extra days off because you know the doomswitch is around the corner and volume suffers as a consequence. If you're in a downswing, sometimes you need to take a break to get back in a decent frame of mind, or if you're in a really bad downswing you just kinda feel sick to your stomach and don't feel like playing. Again, volume suffers as a consequence. Or maybe you're not going through a significant upswing or downswing but the built up stress of playing poker day in and out gets to you and volume suffers as a consequence.

When you turn pro it's because your technical and A/B game have a significant edge on the field but that says nothing about how well you can grind through and put up the necessary volume in the face of variance. There is close to 0 sample size on that when turning pro. So even if your technical game is good enough to go pro, going pro is still a big risk because of the unknown in your mental game.

So my advice to JohnnyB is don't go pro until you have a big enough sample size on your technical game and the hourly is big enough to where it would be dumb to not try and go pro relative to the alternatives.
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Old 01-04-2016, 05:16 PM   #12468
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

2015 1/2 and 1/3 (mostly 1/3)

Hours: 298
Profit: $26,260
Hourly: $88.09
Lifetime Hourly at Stake: $61.62
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Old 01-04-2016, 05:33 PM   #12469
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

So many people making 30-40+ bb/100 ITT. Who says poker is hard?
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Old 01-04-2016, 06:30 PM   #12470
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Lol, I would snap quit my job if I am making 88/hr in 1/3.
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Old 01-04-2016, 06:32 PM   #12471
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Lol, I would snap quit my job if I am making 88/hr in 1/3.
especially if my job was killing the 5/10 game for 75/hr!
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Old 01-04-2016, 06:32 PM   #12472
gobbledygeek
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by 11t View Post
What's the average over the last 1500 hours
Just got around to figuring out this part of the question: exactly $19.00/hr (6.33 bb/hr).

GprobablyalotbetterguessofwhereI'll*hopefully*endu pG
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Old 01-04-2016, 07:11 PM   #12473
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
2015 1/2 and 1/3 (mostly 1/3)

Hours: 298
Profit: $26,260
Hourly: $88.09
Lifetime Hourly at Stake: $61.62
Basically, you are stacking someone once every 2.5 hours. To have a winrate this high:

You are hitting all your draws
Opponents are missing all their draws.
You are never getting coolered
You are coolering people.

People didn't have winrates this high even back during the poker boom. I mean you are saying you winrate is > 100bb/100.
Unless people are constantly calling for stacks with bottom pair, I don't see how this winrate is sustainable.
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Old 01-04-2016, 07:33 PM   #12474
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
Basically, you are stacking someone once every 2.5 hours. To have a winrate this high:

You are hitting all your draws
Opponents are missing all their draws.
You are never getting coolered
You are coolering people.

People didn't have winrates this high even back during the poker boom. I mean you are saying you winrate is > 100bb/100.
Unless people are constantly calling for stacks with bottom pair, I don't see how this winrate is sustainable.
Don't think he claimed it was sustainable. Donkey has explained in the past how he achieves super deep and high variance play. His stddev per hour would be an interesting number.

I, like others, am curious why he doesn't play more hours.
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Old 01-04-2016, 08:02 PM   #12475
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Don't think he claimed it was sustainable. Donkey has explained in the past how he achieves super deep and high variance play. His stddev per hour would be an interesting number.

I, like others, am curious why he doesn't play more hours.
I never said he claimed it was sustainable. A more interesting number would be how much better than EV he is running. Super deep doesn't really matter because it is very rare for someone to lose 200bb in one hand, even 150 BB is rare. As for high variance, it just means he is putting in a lot of money in marginal spots. High variance play isn't going to increase your winrate by 80 BB/100. All it does is marginally increase your win rate while causing your SD to shoot through the roof.
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