Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-23-2015, 04:47 PM   #12251
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 29,388
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
What is the minimum # of hours you guys think is enough for the confidence interval to start being statistically relevant? I feel like I definitely don't have enough hours logged yet (probably why my range is so wide) but still interesting to calculate.

Mine for 1/2 $300 Max BI:
Win Rate Std Dev according to Poker Charts: $118.70/hr
Total Hours Played: 383.25 hrs
Current Win Rate: $31.21/hr

(2*(118.70/2))/sqrt(383.25)
=(118.7/18.577)
= +/- 6.06 bbs = +/- $12.13

95% Confidence Interval for 1/2 NL winrate is between:
$19.08 and $43.33 (9.54 bb/hr and 21.67 bb/hr)
Great results so far! The following isn't a shot at you (I'm noting that cuz it could be taken that way), but...

I mean, obviously lol hours, but don't the conclusions here (95% confidence in a winrate between 9.54 bb/hr and 21.67 bb/hr!!!!!!) kinda make this exercise a bit lol?

G95%confidentI'm100%unconfidentinmywinrateG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 04:54 PM   #12252
mpethybridge
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
mpethybridge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 86.4% dead, most likely
Posts: 16,997
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Great results so far! The following isn't a shot at you (I'm noting that cuz it could be taken that way), but...

I mean, obviously lol hours, but don't the conclusions here (95% confidence in a winrate between 9.54 bb/hr and 21.67 bb/hr!!!!!!) kinda make this exercise a bit lol?

G95%confidentI'm100%unconfidentinmywinrateG
His Std Dev is suspicious. Without strong contrary evidence, I would assume it is incorrect.

Last edited by mpethybridge; 12-23-2015 at 04:56 PM. Reason: post # 17,000, imo.
mpethybridge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 04:59 PM   #12253
bwslim69
I'm a Diva, Bruh
 
bwslim69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: TPS reports
Posts: 19,824
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
A CI is by definition "statistically relevant." A CI will become narrower as sample size increases, all else equal. But it's based on frequentist theory.

Bemoreboring.gif
bwslim69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 05:00 PM   #12254
HappyLuckBox
old hand
 
HappyLuckBox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,442
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

you can also calculate for 99% confidence by changing the multiplier to a 3 instead of a 2.

(3*stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed
HappyLuckBox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 05:15 PM   #12255
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,011
*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
His Std Dev is suspicious. Without strong contrary evidence, I would assume it is incorrect.

There are a few in the thread who have also posted 50~60 bb / hr stdev.. (GG and Garick). It is realistic for nitty play.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 05:19 PM   #12256
HappyLuckBox
old hand
 
HappyLuckBox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,442
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
What is the minimum # of hours you guys think is enough for the confidence interval to start being statistically relevant? I feel like I definitely don't have enough hours logged yet (probably why my range is so wide) but still interesting to calculate.

Mine for 1/2 $300 Max BI:
Win Rate Std Dev according to Poker Charts: $118.70/hr
Total Hours Played: 383.25 hrs
Current Win Rate: $31.21/hr

(2*(118.70/2))/sqrt(383.25)
=(118.7/18.577)
= +/- 6.06 bbs = +/- $12.13

95% Confidence Interval for 1/2 NL winrate is between:
$19.08 and $43.33 (9.54 bb/hr and 21.67 bb/hr)


ie recalculating yours for 99% gave me a range of +- 9.588bbs or +-$19.16 an hour.

so your 99% confidence range is $12.05 to $50.37


Likely to the lower end of that
HappyLuckBox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 05:31 PM   #12257
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 29,388
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
His Std Dev is suspicious. Without strong contrary evidence, I would assume it is incorrect.
Yeah, as bip! mentions, my Std Dev (according to PokerJournal) is actually slightly less than Dizzy's in terms of bb/hr.

GcluelessStdDevnoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 05:41 PM   #12258
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,011
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Mpethy may be used to stdev in /100

90bb/100 ~= 52bb/hr
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 06:08 PM   #12259
mpethybridge
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
mpethybridge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 86.4% dead, most likely
Posts: 16,997
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Mpethy may be used to stdev in /100

90bb/100 ~= 52bb/hr
If I just did it right, I came back with a standard deviation of $301.60 per hour for my last 1250 hours. That yields a CI of +/- $8.53 centered on my achieved WR of $20.70 for that sample, or 95% confidence of $12.17 to $29.23.

Look right? It basically makes sense to me, as my EV adjusted WR is right near the top of that range.
mpethybridge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 06:51 PM   #12260
DeadMoney_J
grinder
 
DeadMoney_J's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 476
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
His Std Dev is suspicious. Without strong contrary evidence, I would assume it is incorrect.
Where I am currently at, due to lack of game election, I primarily have to play 1/2NL ($300 cap buy in) and regardless of the game I am playing, length or the session or how it went, I input the results.

Since being here this time, I have logged 387.75 hours, maintained an hourly of over $25 and according to Poker Income, my Std Dev is $111.73.

Also, much of this time has been during "non-prime" days/hours due to my schedule. I believe my earn rate would go up but so too would my Std Dev if I were able to put in more hours on the weekends and play more during evenings.
DeadMoney_J is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 07:29 PM   #12261
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,011
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
If I just did it right, I came back with a standard deviation of $301.60 per hour for my last 1250 hours. That yields a CI of +/- $8.53 centered on my achieved WR of $20.70 for that sample, or 95% confidence of $12.17 to $29.23.



Look right? It basically makes sense to me, as my EV adjusted WR is right near the top of that range.

Are you playing 1/3 mostly?

If it is 1/2 - I think that would sound high.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 07:33 PM   #12262
mpethybridge
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
mpethybridge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 86.4% dead, most likely
Posts: 16,997
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Are you playing 1/3 mostly?

If it is 1/2 - I think that would sound high.
It's all 1/2; I pulled out the 1/3.

I have since gone back and rechecked it, and it seems to be correct.
mpethybridge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 07:36 PM   #12263
t_roy
veteran
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: My PGC
Posts: 2,080
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Don't know if anyone here is a stats genius, but there must be some type of calc to incorporate the knowledge that we are not making above a certain amount (say 15bbs). Seems that this would lower the CI for a lot of people. Anyone know how to some fancy stuff like that?
t_roy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 08:25 PM   #12264
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

What if your graph looks like a family of giraffes?
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 10:35 PM   #12265
zoltan
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
zoltan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Off my lawn you little punk!
Posts: 20,368
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
Bemoreboring.gif
Eatsomemoregruyerelilfatty.gfy





Quote:
Originally Posted by t_roy View Post
Don't know if anyone here is a stats genius, but there must be some type of calc to incorporate the knowledge that we are not making above a certain amount (say 15bbs). Seems that this would lower the CI for a lot of people. Anyone know how to some fancy stuff like that?
Not quite sure what you're trying to get at here. You can't (statistically) KNOW you're capped at some wr, even though there's always some probability you're below it.

You could do a 95, 96,97, etc ci to see the likelihood of e.g. 15bb being a likely cap.

I suppose there should be a way to calculate a ci given an upper limit. Don't think it would affect the lower end though.
zoltan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2015, 10:52 PM   #12266
Donat3llo
Faster Than Ski Patrol
 
Donat3llo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Riding your coattails, bruh!
Posts: 18,831
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Stfu Zoltan!
Donat3llo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2015, 12:15 AM   #12267
ZippyThePinhead
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 830
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
There are a few in the thread who have also posted 50~60 bb / hr stdev.. (GG and Garick). It is realistic for nitty play.
My standard deviation over 958 hours of 1/2 is 34.44bb per hour.

No idea how to put that number in context. High? Low?

Sent from my LG-D801 using 2+2 Forums
ZippyThePinhead is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2015, 01:09 AM   #12268
t_roy
veteran
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: My PGC
Posts: 2,080
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
Not quite sure what you're trying to get at here. You can't (statistically) KNOW you're capped at some wr, even though there's always some probability you're below it.

You could do a 95, 96,97, etc ci to see the likelihood of e.g. 15bb being a likely cap.

I suppose there should be a way to calculate a ci given an upper limit. Don't think it would affect the lower end though.
We can't statistically know we are capped, but we can intellectually know. It would have to effect the lower limit. Say you play an hour of 1/2, and you estimate your SD at $200/hr. You run like god and win $1000 per hour. Well your 99% confidence interval is going to be like $400-1600 per hour. If we say we are realistically capped at $20 per hour, we should be able to see that we might well be a loser in the game. Our lower interval should not be $20, but actually well into the negative. That's my understanding anyway.
t_roy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2015, 03:09 AM   #12269
Dizzyqtp
veteran
 
Dizzyqtp's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 3,237
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Great results so far! The following isn't a shot at you (I'm noting that cuz it could be taken that way), but...

I mean, obviously lol hours, but don't the conclusions here (95% confidence in a winrate between 9.54 bb/hr and 21.67 bb/hr!!!!!!) kinda make this exercise a bit lol?

G95%confidentI'm100%unconfidentinmywinrateG
No worries, that's mostly why I asked. My range seemed so wide it seemed useless to calculate. Was curious around what amount of hours the range began to tighten to give you a better indication of your win rate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
His Std Dev is suspicious. Without strong contrary evidence, I would assume it is incorrect.
I use Pokercharts.com to track my sessions, I am using the Win Rate Std Dev they calculate for me. How would I go about calculating it on my own/checking if they calculate it correctly?
Dizzyqtp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2015, 09:40 AM   #12270
zoltan
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
zoltan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Off my lawn you little punk!
Posts: 20,368
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by t_roy View Post
We can't statistically know we are capped, but we can intellectually know. It would have to effect the lower limit. Say you play an hour of 1/2, and you estimate your SD at $200/hr. You run like god and win $1000 per hour. Well your 99% confidence interval is going to be like $400-1600 per hour. If we say we are realistically capped at $20 per hour, we should be able to see that we might well be a loser in the game. Our lower interval should not be $20, but actually well into the negative. That's my understanding anyway.
Oh look who's a bayesian now!

The thing is, when we use CI, we're using a frequentist worldview... Which means we're naive to all information that might be available. Which means there's no theoretical cap on wr. (absurd, but this is the frequentist approach taught in stats 101.)

Sometimes (not always) CI and credible interval converge (ie when sampling distribution is normally distributed). I sort of doubt that's the case very often though.

Bip!, what's your take on how the typical players results are distributed?
zoltan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2015, 10:18 AM   #12271
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 19,534
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
There are a few in the thread who have also posted 50~60 bb / hr stdev.. (GG and Garick). It is realistic for nitty play.
This result is very surprising to me, as I think my biggest leak is over aggression, particularly post flop.

I'm admittedly quite tight PF, but I play big pots with TPTK pretty often, since I play in games where Vs will often call three streets with TPmehK. Often I value-cut myself against their weird 2p hands that they never raise. While I am confident I more than make up for it in value, I would expect this to make for a pretty high standard dev.

Also, bip!'s observation of my playing style might be a bit off, based on the fact that when we played together I had a known maniac on my immediate right, so I adjusted by calling down a lot to keep his range wide and let him do the betting for me while he imagined FE.
Garick is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2015, 12:37 PM   #12272
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,011
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

So I talked to a couple of other players in my game about their stdev last night. They are both using poker journal and it seems poker journal spits out an errant number in their cases. More work to do - I guess they have to pay $4.99 to export the data and work in excel - TBD if all the poker journal numbers are mis reported low.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2015, 12:39 PM   #12273
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,011
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
This result is very surprising to me, as I think my biggest leak is over aggression, particularly post flop.



I'm admittedly quite tight PF, but I play big pots with TPTK pretty often, since I play in games where Vs will often call three streets with TPmehK. Often I value-cut myself against their weird 2p hands that they never raise. While I am confident I more than make up for it in value, I would expect this to make for a pretty high standard dev.



Also, bip!'s observation of my playing style might be a bit off, based on the fact that when we played together I had a known maniac on my immediate right, so I adjusted by calling down a lot to keep his range wide and let him do the betting for me while he imagined FE.

. I did not mean nitty in a bad way - more TAG which is top strat for LLSNL. Also, are you using poker journal?

Anyone who uses the app and has an excel sheet with the same records can confirm my suspicion about a miscalculation.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2015, 01:35 PM   #12274
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Why don't you post this very question in poker journal thread on 2+2.
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2015, 01:57 PM   #12275
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,011
*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
Why don't you post this very question in poker journal thread on 2+2.

Well - my interest was more in helping people ITT calculate their poker results, not really going for improving someone else's commercial software.

/ I might be wrong and the app may be right. Also high potential for garbage in = garbage out, PEBKAC, etc.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:02 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online