Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-20-2015, 09:49 AM   #11501
kookiemonster
old hand
 
kookiemonster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: where the milk and honey flows
Posts: 1,653
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
You will become their target. They will work together as a team, discussing how you play and play cautiously until they've got you pegged. The regulars will anyways.
1 or 2 will try & establish a rapport. Invite you to dinner & then steer the conversation towards poker strat after talking sports, etc.
Then they'll share the info with their real friends.

They aren't going to roll over & hand their money over to you 50 hours a week. If nothing else, they just won't sit at your table.
Why would you discuss strat with anyone in your pool you don't trust?

Of course the regs will stop paying you off if you play like a nit. But now you adjust and use your image to run them over. Exploit their limp/folds pf, barrel the turn if they give you too much credit, float them IP, bluff and bluff raise them, play your draws more aggressively, make more cheap stabs at pots, make more ''squeeze'' raises pf to buy the pot.
kookiemonster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 10:56 AM   #11502
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,157
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
Why would you discuss strat with anyone in your pool you don't trust?
I don't know, but they do. They fall into an unexpected trap. I watched one of the scummy regs at my room, who couldn't win against 1 guy whom I'd never seen, move to the seat to his left just so he could chum up to him.

The guy was watching some sport that I know this scum reg has no interest in, yet he acted interested & tried to strike up a conversation with him. It didn't work, but the guy he was trying to angle was in his 40s.

Pipedreamer101 sounds like a youngster, since he's talking about taking on poker f/t 50 hrs a week after 200 hours of results. I was just giving him a heads up. Maybe I'm wrong & he's 45 yrs old, been playing 25+ years & just moved into the area & found a sweet poker room.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
Of course the regs will stop paying you off if you play like a nit. But now you adjust and use your image to run them over. Exploit their limp/folds pf, barrel the turn if they give you too much credit, float them IP, bluff and bluff raise them, play your draws more aggressively, make more cheap stabs at pots, make more ''squeeze'' raises pf to buy the pot.
Nits are easy to figure out. They are tight-passive players who prefers to avoid confrontations. They prefer to avoid big pots without having the nutz and do not like to gamble with creativity.

A Reg doesn't need to trade notes with a few of his buddies to figure him out.
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 11:45 AM   #11503
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 29,731
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
The $700 in my pocket is a literally accurate statement, yes. We closed on our house in July and we moved into it empty of anything--no furniture, no dishes, nothing, because all our stuff was back in Virginia and we could not afford to go back there. It was a few months before I was able to win enough at the tables for us to go back to Virginia and haul our stuff here.

I didn't make a thread about it, because all I did was play. Eventually, I think it was after about two years, my wife found a job. But for the first two years, all we lived on came from the winnings I was able to make (and that was also during some of the worst run bad ). So, yeah, it has been a struggle.

But that was my whole point of mentioning what a struggle it was. We slept on the floor for a month before we had a spare $200 to go buy a cheap ass bed. We ate Ramen and comped pastrami sandwiches. And we both agree that we'd do the last 4 years all over again rather than be miserable with 8 times as much money, like we were back in Virginia.

Which is why I would never presume to tell another person "don't go pro." There are tons of ways to be happy, and ime, they dont include "making as much money as possible." For us, for example, there has been enormous satisfaction in surviving absurd levels of adversity and managing to avoid touching that retirement nest egg.

Nobody knows better than Johnny buzz what will give him satisfaction in life. So if he thinks happiness is taking a huge pay cut to grind, then that's what he should do. But, like everything else, I think he should be smart about it.

One thing I should mention that I haven't is that my wife and I first started talking about moving here in 2005, I quit practicing law in 2008 and we didn't move here until 2011. Some of the reasons for the delay were a daughter in college, looking after my dad in Virginia, we recognized the real estate bubble here in Vegas and waited for it to burst, and stuff like that. So we did exercise the patience I am encouraging buzz to exercise.
Wow, I had no idea things were so tight. Glad you haven't had to touch your nestegg.

Gcan'timaginethestressofdependingonthisgameforaliv ingG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 12:29 PM   #11504
bob_124
old hand
 
bob_124's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: @beeteesax
Posts: 1,836
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Solid poast mpethy. I can remember details of your transition from other threads but didn't realize the challenge of the last four years. Good to hear you're in a better place now.
bob_124 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 12:29 PM   #11505
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Shouldn't come as a surprise that regs prefer to win off strangers than each other.

They will do little things like getting out of way, not squeezing, checking down with nutted hands, and so forth.

It is very hard to beat a group of regs.
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 12:46 PM   #11506
t_roy
veteran
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: My PGC
Posts: 2,080
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

People posting an hourly followed by "I know, I know lol sample size," is ridiculous. If it's an lol sample size then don't post it and expect us to give you guidance based on it.
t_roy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 01:07 PM   #11507
Pipedreamer101
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 299
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Well I thought giving a sample was better than not giving one. What if I was -$50 ph for 200 hours? Would anyone give actually advocate playing full time and/or think the games beatable?
Pipedreamer101 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 01:08 PM   #11508
Pipedreamer101
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 299
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
Pipedreamer101 sounds like a youngster, since he's talking about taking on poker f/t 50 hrs a week after 200 hours of results. I was just giving him a heads up. Maybe I'm wrong & he's 45 yrs old, been playing 25+ years & just moved into the area & found a sweet poker room.
Yea 21 lol...
Pipedreamer101 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 01:16 PM   #11509
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pipedreamer101 View Post
Well I thought giving a sample was better than not giving one. What if I was -$50 ph for 200 hours? Would anyone give actually advocate playing full time and/or think the games beatable?
What lolsample size means is that you could very well be -50/hr for 200 hours.

There are probably hundreds of you with similar skill level around the world, and you may be one of the small minority lucky players who ran way above EV to be posting the question in the first place.

And only someone with the same profile as you would be posting the question, so it seems as if small minority is the norm.
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 01:17 PM   #11510
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 29,731
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pipedreamer101 View Post
Hi guys!

I play $2/$3 live at a local casino where they rake 10% capped at $10 with a $5 "time charge" once every hour. I am generally top 2 or 3 player at a 9 handed table, playing a very straight forward ABC style with minimal bluffs and max aggression. I'm winning $50 p/h over a lol sample of 200 hours. I am considering playing full time 5 days a week 10 hours per day. Given the skill level plus rake what is a realistic win rate for said game? FYI I have played a lot more in this casino and other venues that's just my logged hours over the past 2 months. Thanks in advance!
FWIW, 10% to $10 + $5/hour is an insanely bad rake (perhaps worst rake ever posted in this thread?).

How did you fare before at this venue and other venues over how many hours?

200 hours is basically meaningless (as others and yourself have suggested), so basing any decisions (such as leaving an existing paying job to try this) on this alone wouldn't be a good idea.

GgoodluckG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 01:25 PM   #11511
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

For what it's worth, nobody in your age bracket could afford to lose significant amount of money in short time span, so natural selection of poker would weed them out rather quickly.

Consider this scenario:

1000 players with similar profile as Pipedreamer101 walks into a poker room.

Those who failed to catch a good run of cards will simply fade away and never be seen again.

10% or 100 of them make decent run and survive the first 100 hours. If I were 21 and won $50/hr for 100 hours, I would also think that I have what it takes and that money is easy in poker.

So now I am thinking about moving up and find my way to 2+2, the biggest poker forum in the world, and start reading new materials in hopes of moving up.

However, it is very difficult to want to move away from principles that got you here in the first place, and yet most don't realize that those principles are also what will handicap you from moving forward.

Some of these players try new ideas, fail, and go back to old ways.

Next 100 hours are not so kind, and they fade back to oblivion.

Or you're one of the luckiest of lucky players and continue on for another 100 hours, and you find yourself thinking: "maybe the first 100 hours was luck, but the next 100 hours can't be luck, I have to be good." So you post the question asking whether you are good enough to go full-time.

Good luck with the next 100 hours.
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 01:34 PM   #11512
scelsi
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,464
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
FWIW, 10% to $10 + $5/hour is an insanely bad rake (perhaps worst rake ever posted in this thread?).

How did you fare before at this venue and other venues over how many hours?

200 hours is basically meaningless (as others and yourself have suggested), so basing any decisions (such as leaving an existing paying job to try this) on this alone wouldn't be a good idea.

GgoodluckG
Qft.

I ran 50/hr for 200 hrs aug sept. Oct is avg -120/hr. Just fyi.
scelsi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 01:56 PM   #11513
squid face
ChatThreadPrez
 
squid face's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: cloudbase! Aint no time 4 gravity
Posts: 7,596
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
Shouldn't come as a surprise that regs prefer to win off strangers than each other.

They will do little things like getting out of way, not squeezing, checking down with nutted hands, and so forth.

It is very hard to beat a group of regs.

well color me insanely lucky again. Somehow I have pulled off another miracle and gone to a new place and managed to win at a very good clip. Hopefully they do not have meetings and decide how to "deal with me"
squid face is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 02:00 PM   #11514
Sneaky Pete
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 353
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

You are significantly better than even most players in this forum.

You are an anomaly.
Sneaky Pete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 02:02 PM   #11515
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,732
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

When I dug through all my results, 3000+ hours of $1/2, there were 100 hour windows with easily +- $150/hr. There were more winning stretches than losing ones, but the noise in those sized samples is insane.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 03:49 PM   #11516
Islah
newbie
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 17
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Your winrate will almost never be a reflection of your poker abilities, it is important to understand how to asses your own game.
Islah is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 04:08 PM   #11517
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 6,180
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
What are you doing with all of the 6 figures you're getting paid through the year? if you can't build financial independence with a 6 figure job, no spouse, no kids, you have some major life leaks. Playing poker will not change that, it might only exasperate the situation.
To just go over some of the rough math:

$31,500 - Pretax amount to max out my Roth 401k / Roth IRA

$19,200 - Annual pretax amount to cover fixed monthly expenses (rent, student loans, car insurance, phone)

That's $50k right there accounted for that doesn't even touch a checking account, leaving $50k discretionary. Now some of that $50k is a guaranteed end-of-year bonus, but I'll ignore that for the time being.

$27,000 - Pretax amount required to save $20,000 in a taxable brokerage account

$23,000 - Remaining pretax amount that can effectively be used for discretionary spending (food, gas/transportation, entertainment, etc.), which amounts to roughly $1500/month after taxes.

So yah - I save a lot. If I were to quit to go pro, the first thing I would cut would be the $31,500 going towards Roth retirement accounts that I can't touch until I'm 59.5. Those are my "if everything else goes wrong in life, I have these to fall back on" rainy day investments. But they are a luxury that gets cut if I'm not working full time.

I don't know how people with kids make ends meet. My childhood friend just had his second kid (with a girl that has three previous kids already) and they don't make much money. I have no idea how the hell they are going to get through the next 18 years. Scares the hell out of me to ever have kids.

To me the timeline looks like: Achieve financial freedom --> consider settling down/having kids

Not the other way around.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff View Post
I highly doubt he is actually making six figures. The average starting salary in finance is $40-50K and a Financial Analyst II only makes on average $65K. Unless he is an investment banker living in New York, which is highly unlikely, or somehow more successful than 95% of the population of mid-twenties people in finance, his claim of having a six figure job with great benefits sounds a lot like those my winrate is 25 BB/hr brags.
Why is this "highly unlikely?" I don't work in corporate finance bruh.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 07:03 PM   #11518
AlexLacasse
stranger
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 3
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Figured I would introduce myself on here. This thread is obviously a great resource for guys like me who are just getting back into playing.

Been playing poker for a little over 10 years (I'm 26), with most of my play coming online pre-Black Friday. My current job has made it somewhat difficult to play regularly, however, I've recently moved to where I have time to make weekend trips and play 2/5. My sample size is very small (150 hours), but my results thus far have been "unsustainably good". It is a fairly large poker room, nestled between two major cities, so 5/10 and 10/25 games run regularly -- and (imo) this leaves 2/5 wide open.

Being a "weekend" player gives me an enormous advantage over the 2/5 grinder nits putting in 60hrs/wk who just nut peddle/nit it up. It seems as though anyone with any sort of creativity plays in the bigger games.

I am obviously a bit worried that eventually my run good is going to fade and I'll be brought back to reality. I've input my winrate, etc. into the poker dope variance calculator, and over a million hand sample my largest downswing was 600bb. I even cut my winrate in half and still only came up with at most a 750bb downswing. For some of you guys with 2000+ hours of play, is this reasonable? Were your largest downswings close to this or should I expect it to hurt a bit more?
AlexLacasse is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 07:21 PM   #11519
D.M.O.U.
grinder
 
D.M.O.U.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 443
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

You are using too small of a STD if the largest downswing you got was 750bb over a million hand simulation.
D.M.O.U. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 07:31 PM   #11520
AlexLacasse
stranger
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 3
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by D.M.O.U. View Post
You are using too small of a STD if the largest downswing you got was 750bb over a million hand simulation.
Ohhhhhhh lol. Now this is more what I was expecting. Thanks for the help
AlexLacasse is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 07:38 PM   #11521
eldiesel
Pooh-Bah
 
eldiesel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Earth
Posts: 3,584
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I don't know how people with kids make ends meet.
2 incomes
eldiesel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 08:26 PM   #11522
mpethybridge
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
mpethybridge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 86.4% dead, most likely
Posts: 16,997
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by D.M.O.U. View Post
You are using too small of a STD if the largest downswing you got was 750bb over a million hand simulation.
Ha, it's very rare ITT to see someone post a problem with the correct solution showing up in the very next post.
mpethybridge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 09:33 PM   #11523
suited fours
Pooh-Bah
 
suited fours's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: East Coast USA
Posts: 4,147
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
Ha, it's very rare ITT to see someone post a problem with the correct solution showing up in the very next post.
Maybe we're on a roll?

I've got this rash....
suited fours is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2015, 11:18 PM   #11524
kookiemonster
old hand
 
kookiemonster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: where the milk and honey flows
Posts: 1,653
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I won $5600 over last 20 hours at $1/2. I'm going pro. Gonna make $500K easy.
kookiemonster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2015, 12:49 AM   #11525
shrewsbury91
adept
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: MA-CT
Posts: 773
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by kookiemonster View Post
I won $5600 over last 20 hours at $1/2. I'm going pro. Gonna make $500K easy.
Your game plays more like a $2/5 with a $500 BI though... still impressive nonetheless. Maybe it's time to be on poker night in America and show the world your skills.
shrewsbury91 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:50 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online