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Old 06-30-2014, 01:09 AM   #7501
JewBear
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Advise needed, shortstacking, short run break even.

Hello all, to start off, I apologize if this belongs in the bankroll/finances thread.

Onto my question, I am trying to get back into the live poker scene on a limited bankroll by short stacking at a local casino that has poker pro tables. I have previously been able to successfully pay off 2 semesters of university by playing 1/2NL with a decent bankroll (started with 2k, ended up using around 10k all from winnings in about 1200~ hours, although it wasn't all tracked).

Since I have spent my bankroll on school, I find myself some-what broke attempting to once again build up a roll, but I'm having a rough go at it. Since I started to try and build a roll (that wouldn't need to be dipped into for life expenses like school again) I have played about 150 hours in the last month, up 700$ total, but break even the last 110 hours. I have a part-time job that I use as spending money (150~ weekly), but I have also been dipping into my "bankroll" when money is low.

Basically, my question is whether or not that strategy I am trying to implement here to build a roll is worthwhile or if I am fully just wasting my time/money. Does anyone here have any experience shortstacking live low-limit that can offer any advise? My current bankroll is roughly my winnings (600~) and I currently buy-in for 60-80$, and find the games to be relatively soft w/ low rake.

Lastly, saving up $$$ for a 2-3k roll again is a long shot for me in my current job and do not see myself looking for anything full time in the near future. I enjoy playing poker and would love to be able to build a bankroll again, but the high variance nature and lack of post-flop play of shortstacking is getting overwhelming.

Any advise would be hugely appreciated, thanks guys.

Last edited by JewBear; 06-30-2014 at 01:18 AM.
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Old 06-30-2014, 01:18 AM   #7502
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Re: Advise needed, shortstacking, short run break even.

Buying in for less than 30bb is never worth it long term. 30-40bb will be very high variance and your winrate is severely capped. Having said that, it's still possible to have a positive winrate with those stacks. You would want 30 buyins or more though, with 10 buyins is a good chance of going broke. Also you will need to be able to play only 10% of hands or so. This will be very difficult if you're not used to it.
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Old 06-30-2014, 01:20 AM   #7503
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Re: Advise needed, shortstacking, short run break even.

Quote:
Originally Posted by slimshady1999 View Post
Buying in for less than 30bb is never worth it long term. 30-40bb will be very high variance and your winrate is severely capped. Having said that, it's still possible to have a positive winrate with those stacks. You would want 30 buyins or more though, with 10 buyins is a good chance of going broke. Also you will need to be able to play only 10% of hands or so. This will be very difficult if you're not used to it.
This is a problem, I find myself playing 25%~ of hands with a 30bb stack, defiantly having a huge effect on my win rate.
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Old 06-30-2014, 02:34 AM   #7504
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Re: Advise needed, shortstacking, short run break even.

I'd buy-in for $300 and just play ultra-ultra tight aggressive poker. If you're a winning player and you get lucky, you might never need more than $600. Just go for it with full buy-ins. It will keep you ultra-focused on the game. Play super tight pre + don't played scared when you decide enter a pot.

I think it was Mike Caro that said you should be aggressive in your position because it's easier to replace $600 from the real (non-poker) world than it is if you had a $3,000 BR and lost it.
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Old 06-30-2014, 08:05 AM   #7505
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I have way more experience playing 1-2 on a tight bankroll than I probably should. Im talking 1 or 2 buyins. Just buy in full and hope you dont hit a downswing. It can be done. Dont take thin spots, and after a couple good sessions, if you can avoid beats and coolers, you will be comfortably rolled.
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Old 06-30-2014, 08:13 AM   #7506
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Re: Advise needed, shortstacking, short run break even.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JewBear View Post
Hello all, to start off, I apologize if this belongs in the bankroll/finances thread.

Onto my question, I am trying to get back into the live poker scene on a limited bankroll by short stacking at a local casino that has poker pro tables. I have previously been able to successfully pay off 2 semesters of university by playing 1/2NL with a decent bankroll (started with 2k, ended up using around 10k all from winnings in about 1200~ hours, although it wasn't all tracked).

Since I have spent my bankroll on school, I find myself some-what broke attempting to once again build up a roll, but I'm having a rough go at it. Since I started to try and build a roll (that wouldn't need to be dipped into for life expenses like school again) I have played about 150 hours in the last month, up 700$ total, but break even the last 110 hours. I have a part-time job that I use as spending money (150~ weekly), but I have also been dipping into my "bankroll" when money is low.

Basically, my question is whether or not that strategy I am trying to implement here to build a roll is worthwhile or if I am fully just wasting my time/money. Does anyone here have any experience shortstacking live low-limit that can offer any advise? My current bankroll is roughly my winnings (600~) and I currently buy-in for 60-80$, and find the games to be relatively soft w/ low rake.

Lastly, saving up $$$ for a 2-3k roll again is a long shot for me in my current job and do not see myself looking for anything full time in the near future. I enjoy playing poker and would love to be able to build a bankroll again, but the high variance nature and lack of post-flop play of shortstacking is getting overwhelming.

Any advise would be hugely appreciated, thanks guys.
Edit: I can't read.

If you are using money from poker to augment your life income and you don't have enough money to pay for your bills and other expenses I would strongly encourage you to take a break from poker and pick up a second 'real' job. Something with a steady pay check that will not have the potential to lose your hundreds and thousands of $'s a day / week.

Having said that, if you play, buy in for $150 or so, play tight, get value from your value hands, and fold marginal hands. Buying in 150bb deep ($300) is good, and it can be more profitable, but if the majority of other players are the table who are 150bb+ deep with you are just as skilled as you or better than it does you no good to be deep with them. If all the bad players are buying in for $200 or $150 or $100 then you just need to cover them.

Regardless, good luck, don't buy in for $60. Short stacks are cowards.

Last edited by iraisetoomuch; 06-30-2014 at 08:33 AM.
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Old 06-30-2014, 08:28 AM   #7507
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

He didn't say he lost $10k. He said he spent around $10k that he made from playing poker.

Maybe try buying in for 60bbs. That should give you the ability to play postflop to a point. Just can't call as wide as if you were deeper.
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Old 06-30-2014, 09:36 AM   #7508
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

JewBear,

Get a second job. Don't try to grind out 1/2 NL on a super-short "bankroll." It is almost impossible to make decent money at 1/2 NL even when you are playing your A game. When you are on such a super-short "bankroll," it is impossible to play anything close to your A game because any ALL-IN pot represents such a ridiculously high % of your "bankroll." Therefore, your mind will be thinking about all the wrong things like "OMFG, should I call off my whole roll with just one pair, or should I wait for a better spot to get it in for my whole roll?!??!?!" instead of focusing on fundamentally good play.

In other words, I doubt that you have any meaningful win-rate in this 1/2 NL game when you are playing with basically ZERO bullets behind you.
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Old 06-30-2014, 09:49 AM   #7509
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse123 View Post
I'd buy-in for $300 and just play ultra-ultra tight aggressive poker. If you're a winning player and you get lucky, you might never need more than $600. Just go for it with full buy-ins. It will keep you ultra-focused on the game. Play super tight pre + don't played scared when you decide enter a pot.

I think it was Mike Caro that said you should be aggressive in your position because it's easier to replace $600 from the real (non-poker) world than it is if you had a $3,000 BR and lost it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss View Post
I have way more experience playing 1-2 on a tight bankroll than I probably should. Im talking 1 or 2 buyins. Just buy in full and hope you dont hit a downswing. It can be done. Dont take thin spots, and after a couple good sessions, if you can avoid beats and coolers, you will be comfortably rolled.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Edit: I can't read.

If you are using money from poker to augment your life income and you don't have enough money to pay for your bills and other expenses I would strongly encourage you to take a break from poker and pick up a second 'real' job. Something with a steady pay check that will not have the potential to lose your hundreds and thousands of $'s a day / week.

Having said that, if you play, buy in for $150 or so, play tight, get value from your value hands, and fold marginal hands. Buying in 150bb deep ($300) is good, and it can be more profitable, but if the majority of other players are the table who are 150bb+ deep with you are just as skilled as you or better than it does you no good to be deep with them. If all the bad players are buying in for $200 or $150 or $100 then you just need to cover them.

Regardless, good luck, don't buy in for $60. Short stacks are cowards.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrindPokerAllDay View Post
He didn't say he lost $10k. He said he spent around $10k that he made from playing poker.

Maybe try buying in for 60bbs. That should give you the ability to play postflop to a point. Just can't call as wide as if you were deeper.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
JewBear,

Get a second job. Don't try to grind out 1/2 NL on a super-short "bankroll." It is almost impossible to make decent money at 1/2 NL even when you are playing your A game. When you are on such a super-short "bankroll," it is impossible to play anything close to your A game because any ALL-IN pot represents such a ridiculously high % of your "bankroll." Therefore, your mind will be thinking about all the wrong things like "OMFG, should I call off my whole roll with just one pair, or should I wait for a better spot to get it in for my whole roll?!??!?!" instead of focusing on fundamentally good play.

In other words, I doubt that you have any meaningful win-rate in this 1/2 NL game when you are playing with basically ZERO bullets behind you.
Thanks for all the input . Not trying to be a coward or anything here lol, I just figured given my finances I had the best shot at building a bankroll if I started off shortstacking (more BI's). I have given thought to just buying in with 100bb, but the thought of only having 3 BI on the poker pro tables is pretty scary, however it sounds like I'd be better off. The lack of post-flop play with 30bb is starting to get to me anyways, so I think I'll give it a shot later on today.

As for getting another job, I have a 60% course load until the end of july so getting another job right now is out of the question.
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Old 06-30-2014, 11:33 AM   #7510
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Then just buy in full-stacked and try to play your best despite the fact that you have only 3BIs to your name.

I give you about a 95% chance of bustoing your roll though. Since you aren't really interested in other more reasonable options, good luck.

Again, I don't mean that in a mean way at all. You put yourself in this horrible spot, however, so there should be no mincing words about it.
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Old 06-30-2014, 11:43 AM   #7511
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

FYI to all you young guns who like to "spend" your recent poker "winnings" because you "won" X amount over the last Y sessions...

You didn't necessarily "win" what you thought you did. It is very likely that you were on the positive side of variance. So, if you "won" 4k last month over 100 hours, you didn't "make $40/hour." It seems like you did, but you don't know your long-term win-rate, so maybe you only deserved to make $20/hour ($2k/month) due to your skills, and you got lucky to receive an extra $20/hour (extra $2k/month) this month due to positive variance.

So, if you spend $3k after having a "good month," you are really just cannibalizing your business's working capital. You only deserve to credit yourself for $2k/month of wages. You spent THAT, and then cannibalized ANOTHER $1k from your bankroll.

Is it nice to buy stuff? Of course, it feels good to buy stuff. On the other hand, any true businessman would never keep depleting his working capital to buy stuff because a true businessman would know that the business will ultimately go bankroll if working capital isn't big enough to sustain the eventual bad turn in business climate.

Or in the case of poker players, the eventual run bad of negative variance. Which will often come sooner and last for much longer than most poker players can even imagine.

FWIW, I have seen countless promising young guns do this. They thought they were good at poker because they had a nice run of cards. Then they overspent their money because they believed their own press releases, and they decided that they needed a baller lifestyle to match their baller profession. Then they had a little taste of run bad and promptly bustoed their rolls when they tilted their minds off because they couldn't understand how geniuses like themselves could possibly keep losing to live "donks" and "fish" over weeks/months.
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Old 06-30-2014, 11:47 AM   #7512
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Old 06-30-2014, 12:31 PM   #7513
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
FYI to all you young guns who like to "spend" your recent poker "winnings" because you "won" X amount over the last Y sessions...
Thanks for the post.

I think it's hard for the average 'grinder' 'semi-pro' or whatever you want to call your self to remember that sometimes. If you true win rate is 6bb / hour and you play 100 hour, you've only made 600bb. Anything more or less is just variance.
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Old 06-30-2014, 12:57 PM   #7514
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I think most 2plus2ers come into live poker with a "Golden Goose" mentality. They see all the donks and fish doing retarded stuff in the live NLHE games, and they say to themselves: "Wow! Playing cards against these idiots must be printing money!"

And that is how most 2plus2ers get into the live poker grind.

In the beginning, some run hot, and some do not. Usually, the ones who run bad quit poker. Meanwhile, the ones who run hot start thinking that "Poker is the Golden Goose for me. If I keep playing this game regularly, I can get rich off all these Golden Eggs."

Now, most people aren't stupid enough to kill the Golden Goose immediately to try to get all the eggs at once. After all, we all read that story as kids.

Nevertheless, the vast majority of 2plus2ers are not smart enough to realize that you have to feed and nourish and nurture the Golden Goose if you want it to keep laying Golden Eggs (and especially if you want it to lay larger ones). You have to keep the Golden Goose healthy at the very least. It would probably be best to nurture it to be even larger and healthier than a normal Golden Goose...but whatever, that's my life Nit view.

The point is that the poker version of the Golden Goose needs the following: healthy growing bankroll, high quality volume, and constant study away from the felt. The truth is that the vast majority of 2plus2ers don't do any of the above 3 things. During the good times, they forget to feed the Goose even though they have plenty of money/time to doso. Then, when the bad times come, they let the weak and famished Golden Geese die of starvation.

You will constantly find guys who think poker is going to be their Golden Goose. But almost none of them bother to feed and nurture their Golden Goose. And then they wonder when the Golden Eggs no longer keep coming...

Last edited by ATsai; 06-30-2014 at 01:07 PM.
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Old 06-30-2014, 02:04 PM   #7515
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Currently finishing up my worst month in two years, managed to keep it profitable though. Was down $1700 for the month about halfway through, so any profit at all is good enough. Just ran insanely bad with the coolers. In a one-week span I ran KK into AA four times, QQ into KK, QQ into AA, lost with JJ in a 3-way all-in on flop for $1800 pot in a 1/3 game on J-5-7 rainbow (89 gets there on turn), lost with nut flush (A2) vs QQ in 3b pot for $1600 pot on 4542Q, lost $1600 pot with KK vs AA on A-8-T-8-K in 4b pot (thread - https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...t-pot-1453217/), you get the idea.

The JJ and A2ss hands were both against my super aggro friend in the span of about an hour, and the JJ hand in particular was pretty interesting. Major action 1/3 game at Wynn, button straddles, friend raises $20 in MP, button calls, I call in SB instead of 3b since we are 200bb deep. Flop J-5-7r, I check, he bets $42, button calls, I c/r $125, he thinks for a bit and 3b to $285, button tanks and shoves all-in for $550, I re-shove $600, he calls. Turn 6 river K, 89 for the nuts. Button just had a pair and jammed because he thought my friend had nothing (since he probably flats the c/r with an overpair) and figured I would fold everything but sets given the action.

A2ss hand also kind of interesting. I raise $12 in MP, another friend in SB calls, aggro friend goes $45 and we are $750 deep so I call, SB calls. Flop 454, SB checks, aggro friend leads $75, I raise to $200, SB folds (says he had JJ), friend calls. Now I know he has an overpair and will play the "let's brick the turn and get it in when his equity is cut in half" game. Turn 2, he checks I check back, river Q he thinks for a bit and leads $50 into a pot of about $540. I jam the other $500 and he snaps it off with the old QQ, sweet river card, easy game.

Some stats:

June 2014:








635 hours of 1/2:









205 hours of 2/5:

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Old 06-30-2014, 03:07 PM   #7516
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Way too crush wj, especially impressive to book a winning month in spite of the coolers (which I'm sure can take a toll mentally and make it difficult to play your A game). 17.6bb/hr at 1/2 over a non-hit-and-run sample size? Wow, nice. And as always, an insane amount of volume for a non-pro-with-day-job - I thought my 49 hours in June was impressive!

GjellyG
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Old 06-30-2014, 03:32 PM   #7517
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Then just buy in full-stacked and try to play your best despite the fact that you have only 3BIs to your name.

I give you about a 95% chance of bustoing your roll though. Since you aren't really interested in other more reasonable options, good luck.

Again, I don't mean that in a mean way at all. You put yourself in this horrible spot, however, so there should be no mincing words about it.
It's not that I'm not interested in "reasonable options", it's that they aren't available unless quitting live poker altogether (for now) is one of them (which I know is probably the best option, but hey, I enjoy playing). I was just wondering if anyone on here had been in a similar situation and had made it work (shortstacking), but I have taken in all of the advise people have given me here and plan to use it.

Also, I would say that using poker winnings to fund university (and thus avoiding student debt) is a pretty not horrible spot.
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Old 06-30-2014, 03:40 PM   #7518
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
FYI to all you young guns who like to "spend" your recent poker "winnings" because you "won" X amount over the last Y sessions...

You didn't necessarily "win" what you thought you did. It is very likely that you were on the positive side of variance. So, if you "won" 4k last month over 100 hours, you didn't "make $40/hour." It seems like you did, but you don't know your long-term win-rate, so maybe you only deserved to make $20/hour ($2k/month) due to your skills, and you got lucky to receive an extra $20/hour (extra $2k/month) this month due to positive variance.

So, if you spend $3k after having a "good month," you are really just cannibalizing your business's working capital. You only deserve to credit yourself for $2k/month of wages. You spent THAT, and then cannibalized ANOTHER $1k from your bankroll.

Is it nice to buy stuff? Of course, it feels good to buy stuff. On the other hand, any true businessman would never keep depleting his working capital to buy stuff because a true businessman would know that the business will ultimately go bankroll if working capital isn't big enough to sustain the eventual bad turn in business climate.

Or in the case of poker players, the eventual run bad of negative variance. Which will often come sooner and last for much longer than most poker players can even imagine.

FWIW, I have seen countless promising young guns do this. They thought they were good at poker because they had a nice run of cards. Then they overspent their money because they believed their own press releases, and they decided that they needed a baller lifestyle to match their baller profession. Then they had a little taste of run bad and promptly bustoed their rolls when they tilted their minds off because they couldn't understand how geniuses like themselves could possibly keep losing to live "donks" and "fish" over weeks/months.
Solid advise, if this is at all in reference to my OP where I said I spent my bankroll, I'd choose spending my poker bankroll over 10k in student debt 10/10 times . Ideally I would never take money out of my bankroll while still at 1/2.
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Old 06-30-2014, 03:44 PM   #7519
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

JewBear:

When I first started playing live I took a couple hundred from my life roll and just went to the casino (after playing home games and small stakes online (poorly)). I'd buy in for $100 and play *really* tight until I got a hand, then look to get it in. You're basically set mining with really thin IO, hoping to get enough with multiple callers to make it profitable. You've also got just enough that you can threaten an uncomfortably large bet if you open $10-12 with AK and C-bet.

It worked OK for me, but I was losing value being even that short. $100 with a ~10% range worked when I got paid off. $60 with a 25% range that you seem to indicate trying is *NOT* going to work well.

The minimum that I'd recommend to take shots at rebuilding a working roll is $100/bullet.
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Old 06-30-2014, 07:15 PM   #7520
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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A2ss hand also kind of interesting. I raise $12 in MP, another friend in SB calls, aggro friend goes $45 and we are $750 deep so I call, SB calls. Flop 454, SB checks, aggro friend leads $75, I raise to $200, SB folds (says he had JJ), friend calls. Now I know he has an overpair and will play the "let's brick the turn and get it in when his equity is cut in half" game. Turn 2, he checks I check back, river Q he thinks for a bit and leads $50 into a pot of about $540. I jam the other $500 and he snaps it off with the old QQ, sweet river card, easy game.
just curious. if you knew he had an overpair, why did you shove the river?
did you expect him to call $450 with JJ, KK, or AA?
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Old 06-30-2014, 07:23 PM   #7521
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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just curious. if you knew he had an overpair, why did you shove the river?
did you expect him to call $450 with JJ, KK, or AA?
KK/AA yes, JJ probably not. More combos of AA/KK than QQ. If he's folding KK+ then it's a puke fold. Are you really just calling the lolsmall $50 bet on river? That just seems bad, especially if he turns over KK/AA. It really doesn't matter though. If he checks I shove. If he shoves I call. Same result.
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Old 06-30-2014, 07:31 PM   #7522
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Way too crush wj, especially impressive to book a winning month in spite of the coolers (which I'm sure can take a toll mentally and make it difficult to play your A game). 17.6bb/hr at 1/2 over a non-hit-and-run sample size? Wow, nice. And as always, an insane amount of volume for a non-pro-with-day-job - I thought my 49 hours in June was impressive!

GjellyG
Yeah, it's not fun when you feel like you're going to get coolered every time you have a big hand. My workday is usually done by 4pm so plenty of pokering time.
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Old 06-30-2014, 10:33 PM   #7523
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
FYI to all you young guns who like to "spend" your recent poker "winnings" because you "won" X amount over the last Y sessions...

You didn't necessarily "win" what you thought you did. It is very likely that you were on the positive side of variance. So, if you "won" 4k last month over 100 hours, you didn't "make $40/hour." It seems like you did, but you don't know your long-term win-rate, so maybe you only deserved to make $20/hour ($2k/month) due to your skills, and you got lucky to receive an extra $20/hour (extra $2k/month) this month due to positive variance.

So, if you spend $3k after having a "good month," you are really just cannibalizing your business's working capital. You only deserve to credit yourself for $2k/month of wages. You spent THAT, and then cannibalized ANOTHER $1k from your bankroll.
I agree. This is pretty much how I look at paying for expenses with poker winnings.
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Old 07-01-2014, 12:56 AM   #7524
wj94
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 7,316
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Speaking of a month of being on the wrong end of coolers, I'm reading the old 2+2 at the Wynn these three hands happen in one orbit:

One limp hero raises 68hh with $400 effective, bb calls limper folds. Flop 589hss, bb checks hero bets $25, bb calls. Turn 7h! B. Checks hero bets $60, bb c/r $150, hero shoves, bb snaps with JThh. That one was pretty sick.

Two hands later mp opens $15, hero 3b $55 with QQ, mp snap shoves $400, hero folds.

Two hands after that MP opens $16, hero calls in CO, SB and BB call. Flop A24hh checks to hero, bet $45, V c/r $90, hero shoves $300 more, V calls with A5. Turn 3 river brick.

July can't come fast enough...yeah I know which way BBV is.
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Old 07-01-2014, 06:09 PM   #7525
clubkiller
newbie
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 23
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Booked another winning month after starting off pretty bad, was down $2k through first 3 weeks. Had a monster day that showed me a $2900 profit day with $1500 coming in first 2 hands of that session.

105 hours $1563 profit for June

Total hours/profit since keeping track last 4 months

407 hours $13,719 profit $33.71/hour
All but 5 hours @ $3/5 500cap nl games

This is all hours played after I get done working a regular job 50-60 hours a week. Usually get in a play from 6-10pm almost every night.

Been very happy with the way I've been playing. Finding my biggest leak to be bluffing people I know wont fold and bluff them anyway thinking they suddenly will...

Saving to pay for a wedding in September and we had a budget of $25k, hoping to have it completely saved up from poker winnings and already very close. Obviously this has made my fiancé a lot more willing/acceptable of me playing so much. Crossing fingers for no wedding debt!
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