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Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

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Old 02-04-2011, 12:03 AM   #501
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Princess Azula View Post
The odds playing of 1,000,000 hands and doing both of the following:
  1. being a 10bb/100 winner, and
  2. not going on a 3.5 buy-in downswing.
must be astronomical.


How many hands do you think you have played over this time?
u realize it would take about ten years to do this, right? (playing 8 hours a day every day)
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:09 AM   #502
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Cool man. Good luck with that.
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:12 AM   #503
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by bubonicplay View Post
at 2-5 it depends on how much you buyin for, obviously the more you buyin for the chances are less that you will lose that buyin, where im from the max is $1500. For 1-2 its usually $200.
where is this @ 2/5 1500$ max?
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:14 AM   #504
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by AEPpoker View Post
u realize it would take about ten years to do this, right?
True, but it won't take multiple people to play 1,000,000 hands live lifetime.

I guess I'm just trying to politely imply that bubonicplay hasn't played enough poker to understand the true nature of the variance inherent in the game.

The graphs I've posted demonstrate how it is possible to experience terrible downswings, despite being a good player.

We, I think, agree now, that -10 buy-in down-swings are standard over the long-run, and about 2% of winning players would bust a 10 buy-in starting roll (+10bb/100 win-rate).

Considering that there are thousands of players out there, there must be hundreds who deal with these horrible runs.

I wonder what they think when they read posts like the following?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bubonicplay
Anyone losing more than 5 buyins at 2-5 or 1-2 should quit,
Quote:
Originally Posted by AEPpoker
if you go down 10K playing 2/5 you either suck at game selection or you suck at poker. it isnt a bankroll issue.
It is reasonable to say:

Quote:
If you start with 10 buy-ins, you stand are very good chance of never going bust. Although, of course, you might. I estimate your chances of failure to be about 2%.
But to tell people they suck, if they bust a 10 buy-in staring roll is outrageous. How do you know they aren't a 2%er?

Last edited by Princess Azula; 02-04-2011 at 12:19 AM.
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:20 AM   #505
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Winrate after my first "Quarter"- reasonable?

After making the transition from Limit (5-10, 8-16, 15-30) to NL (1-2, mostly 2-5) I have finally logged 520 hours of 2-5. I considered this my 1st Quarter as it would be thirteen 40 hour weeks if played straight.

My profit is $15,860 which equals just over 6bb/hour. My question is - does this seem sustainable? Assuming 25 hands/hour it's only 13,000 hands which is relatively small in the grand scheme of things.
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:28 AM   #506
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Re: Winrate after my first "Quarter"- reasonable?

Quote:
Originally Posted by FLHE View Post
After making the transition from Limit (5-10, 8-16, 15-30) to NL (1-2, mostly 2-5) I have finally logged 520 hours of 2-5. I considered this my 1st Quarter as it would be thirteen 40 hour weeks if played straight.

My profit is $15,860 which equals just over 6bb/hour. My question is - does this seem sustainable? Assuming 25 hands/hour it's only 13,000 hands which is relatively small in the grand scheme of things.
If you were beating 8/16 and 15/30 I'm going to assume you have very solid fundamentals and 6bb/hr is, imo, sustainable.

The sample means you have a large confidence interval for your true winrate. You could be running hot. But you could be running cold too.

Well done!
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:29 AM   #507
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Princess Azula View Post
True, but it won't take multiple people to play 1,000,000 hands live lifetime.

I guess I'm just trying to politely imply that bubonicplay hasn't played enough poker to understand the true nature of the variance inherent in the game.

The graphs I've posted demonstrate how it is possible to experience terrible downswings, despite being a good player.

We, I think, agree now, that -10 buy-in down-swings are standard over the long-run, and about 2% of winning players would bust a 10 buy-in starting roll (+10bb/100 win-rate).

Considering that there are thousands of players out there, there must be hundreds who deal with these horrible runs.

I wonder what they think when they read posts like the following?




It is reasonable to say:


But to tell people they suck, if they bust a 10 buy-in staring roll is outrageous. How do you know they aren't a 2%er?
I said they suck if they bust a 20BI starting roll. If they are just running bad, theyre like a .2 percenter

And honestly, even if we take the two percent. Lets say someone brings 2K to vegas, and wants to play full time.

He loses that 2K playing 1/2. It is much much much more likely that he is either a break even or close to break even player, or a loser than it is that he has a postivie expectation. If this person were a friend, i would say something to him like "listen man, i think you really need to re-evaluate whether you can really beat this game".. ive had friends like this and given this speech a lot.
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:32 AM   #508
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Re: Winrate after my first "Quarter"- reasonable?

Quote:
Originally Posted by FLHE View Post
After making the transition from Limit (5-10, 8-16, 15-30) to NL (1-2, mostly 2-5) I have finally logged 520 hours of 2-5. I considered this my 1st Quarter as it would be thirteen 40 hour weeks if played straight.

My profit is $15,860 which equals just over 6bb/hour. My question is - does this seem sustainable? Assuming 25 hands/hour it's only 13,000 hands which is relatively small in the grand scheme of things.
25/hr seems a bit slow... isnt like 30-40 more typical?

anyway so youre talking like 30 bucks an hour at 2/5.... pretty reasonable... what i would expect a decent reg to make in a decent game.
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:33 AM   #509
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Re: Winrate after my first "Quarter"- reasonable?

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Originally Posted by KurtSF View Post
If you were beating 8/16 and 15/30 I'm going to assume you have very solid fundamentals and 6bb/hr is, imo, sustainable.

The sample means you have a large confidence interval for your true winrate. You could be running hot. But you could be running cold too.

Well done!
TY sir. It was actually a hell of a transition. Limit was very "easy" decisions. But in your opinion 6 bb/hr is sustainable?
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:43 AM   #510
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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I've burnt through 10 in a night, live. I survived a 120bi downswing live and online combined.
120 or 12?
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:47 AM   #511
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

120

Made em back too.

Now I just refer to it as my 700,000 hand breakeven stretch.
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:57 AM   #512
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by PotControl View Post
where is this @ 2/5 1500$ max?
Its actually $3500 max buyin, i usually buyin for $1000 though, i mostly play 1-2 though for now. Wendover, NV btw.

Lets back up here and take this into perspective, IF someone were to lose 10 buy-ins in a row there are without a doubt in my mind that that person has HUGE leaks. Are they never stacking off with the goods, do they shove with QQ's and feel coolered when the 70 yr old nit calls with AA? Another thing to consider is how few of hands we see live, the average is about 30hpr, so in order to lose say 10 buyins in 4 sessions we are probably playing way to many hands and bleeding chips.

I have played probably (estimated) 800 hours live, and the most i've went down is 3 buyins.
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:57 AM   #513
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Anyone who says they aren't going to go through a huge bi downswings is kidding themselves and hasn't played enough poker...or is playing way too conservatively and losing value by

Btw 800 hrs not nearly enough IMO for live

Last edited by rizasutton; 02-04-2011 at 01:02 AM.
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:03 AM   #514
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

800 hours at a modest winrate (not sure $per hour etc) is more than enough for me to know i am a shark.
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:10 AM   #515
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bubonicplay View Post
Anyone losing more than 5 buyins at 2-5 or 1-2 should quit, the edges are so high that even if you are constantly running bad you should still be making profit.
I want to go back to this and say that I just lived through a 6 buyin downswing at 1-2. I am a consistently profitable player, and have made it back and more at this point. So, I do not agree that good players can not go on a >5 buy-in downswing. I will say that it sucked and I started to question myself when I lost the 6th buyin.
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:10 AM   #516
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Come back around 3k+ and let us know sharky
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:16 AM   #517
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

The buyins lost dont just "disapeer", if you lose 5 buyins you should personally review hands disecting what went wrong, or have help reviewing them. I can see 5-6 buyins tops, but no more count as a "downswing", they will count as bad play.
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:20 AM   #518
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Come back around 3k+ and let us know sharky
^

This is somewhat true...but sometimes stuff happens and we are all.human and it will.happen.

But IMO after losing 10 buy ins you should move down a level recoup think things over.
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:25 AM   #519
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Another variable to consider is factoring in the pots we win, winning a small $50 pot is 1/4 of a buy in, calling a shortstack push with AK and winning, $200 pot. So if someone does lose 5-6 buyins, they are actually losing about 9-10 if that makes sense.

i will come back after 3k hours and let you know, my game will probably improve over that time too so i might even have a longer winning record

BTW: my style is TAG with emphasis on aggression, i use my image to run successfull bluffs. Very foldy pre, and i do not bleed.
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Old 02-04-2011, 03:05 AM   #520
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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where is this @ 2/5 1500$ max?
its uncapped at casears if youre lookin for deep play
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Old 02-04-2011, 04:06 AM   #521
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Win-rates - (per hour)

1/2NL : $10-$20
2/5NL: $25-$50 (probably closer to 35ish max)
5/10: $45-$100 (probably closer to 75ish max)

Bankroll -

1/2NL : $2,000-$4,000 (depends on skill level and game structure)
2/5NL: $6,000-$12,000 (depends on skill level and game structure)
5/10NL: $20,000-$50,000 (depends on skill level and game structure)

Finances -

My best advice would be to keep a bankroll totally isolated from everything else. A separate checking account is the best play. Also, sometimes it is smart to draft a check at the cashier cage, vs buying in with cash or using an ATM. Depending on how you file taxes, having records showing checks written to the casino can be beneficial. Also saves on ATM fees, and is safer then carrying cash.
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:48 PM   #522
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bo Goldman View Post
Win-rates - (per hour)

1/2NL : $10-$20
2/5NL: $25-$50 (probably closer to 35ish max)
5/10: $45-$100 (probably closer to 75ish max)

Bankroll -

1/2NL : $2,000-$4,000 (depends on skill level and game structure)
2/5NL: $6,000-$12,000 (depends on skill level and game structure)
5/10NL: $20,000-$50,000 (depends on skill level and game structure)

Finances -

My best advice would be to keep a bankroll totally isolated from everything else. A separate checking account is the best play. Also, sometimes it is smart to draft a check at the cashier cage, vs buying in with cash or using an ATM. Depending on how you file taxes, having records showing checks written to the casino can be beneficial. Also saves on ATM fees, and is safer then carrying cash.
thanks. how many ''bullets'' would you bring per session? 2-3 buyins? more, less?
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Old 02-04-2011, 02:49 PM   #523
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by umaine89 View Post
I want to go back to this and say that I just lived through a 6 buyin downswing at 1-2. I am a consistently profitable player, and have made it back and more at this point. So, I do not agree that good players can not go on a >5 buy-in downswing. I will say that it sucked and I started to question myself when I lost the 6th buyin.

I'm a winning player for about $14/hr of 1/2 over 600 hours thru 2 years. I had a -$1200 month once. that was 6 BI.
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Old 02-04-2011, 10:38 PM   #524
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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thanks. how many ''bullets'' would you bring per session? 2-3 buyins? more, less?
Depends on how capable you are of playing your best despite variance.
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Old 02-05-2011, 02:36 AM   #525
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I never bring more than 2.5 bi and usually if I dip in its a situation where I lose a decent sized pot, say $125 then I add back on to make sure I always have the max allowed in front of me.
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