u realize it would take about ten years to do this, right? (playing 8 hours a day every day)

Cool man. Good luck with that.

where is this @ 2/5 1500$ max?

True, but it won't take multiple people to play 1,000,000 hands live lifetime.

I guess I'm just trying to politely imply that bubonicplay hasn't played enough poker to understand the true nature of the variance inherent in the game.

The graphs I've posted demonstrate how it is possible to experience terrible downswings, despite being a good player.

We, I think, agree now, that -10 buy-in down-swings are standard over the long-run, and about 2% of winning players would bust a 10 buy-in starting roll (+10bb/100 win-rate).

Considering that there are thousands of players out there, there must be hundreds who deal with these horrible runs.

I wonder what they think when they read posts like the following?

It is reasonable to say:

But to tell people they suck, if they bust a 10 buy-in staring roll is outrageous. How do you know they aren't a 2%er?

After making the transition from Limit (5-10, 8-16, 15-30) to NL (1-2, mostly 2-5) I have finally logged 520 hours of 2-5. I considered this my 1st Quarter as it would be thirteen 40 hour weeks if played straight.

My profit is $15,860 which equals just over 6bb/hour. My question is - does this seem sustainable? Assuming 25 hands/hour it's only 13,000 hands which is relatively small in the grand scheme of things.

If you were beating 8/16 and 15/30 I'm going to assume you have very solid fundamentals and 6bb/hr is, imo, sustainable.

The sample means you have a large confidence interval for your true winrate. You could be running hot. But you could be running cold too.

Well done!

I said they suck if they bust a 20BI starting roll. If they are just running bad, theyre like a .2 percenter

And honestly, even if we take the two percent. Lets say someone brings 2K to vegas, and wants to play full time.

He loses that 2K playing 1/2. It is much much much more likely that he is either a break even or close to break even player, or a loser than it is that he has a postivie expectation. If this person were a friend, i would say something to him like "listen man, i think you really need to re-evaluate whether you can really beat this game".. ive had friends like this and given this speech a lot.

25/hr seems a bit slow... isnt like 30-40 more typical?

anyway so youre talking like 30 bucks an hour at 2/5.... pretty reasonable... what i would expect a decent reg to make in a decent game.

TY sir. It was actually a hell of a transition. Limit was very "easy" decisions. But in your opinion 6 bb/hr is sustainable?

120 or 12?

120

Made em back too.

Now I just refer to it as my 700,000 hand breakeven stretch.

Its actually $3500 max buyin, i usually buyin for $1000 though, i mostly play 1-2 though for now. Wendover, NV btw.

Lets back up here and take this into perspective, IF someone were to lose 10 buy-ins in a row there are without a doubt in my mind that that person has HUGE leaks. Are they never stacking off with the goods, do they shove with QQ's and feel coolered when the 70 yr old nit calls with AA? Another thing to consider is how few of hands we see live, the average is about 30hpr, so in order to lose say 10 buyins in 4 sessions we are probably playing way to many hands and bleeding chips.

I have played probably (estimated) 800 hours live, and the most i've went down is 3 buyins.

Anyone who says they aren't going to go through a huge bi downswings is kidding themselves and hasn't played enough poker...or is playing way too conservatively and losing value by

Btw 800 hrs not nearly enough IMO for live

800 hours at a modest winrate (not sure $per hour etc) is more than enough for me to know i am a shark.

I want to go back to this and say that I just lived through a 6 buyin downswing at 1-2. I am a consistently profitable player, and have made it back and more at this point. So, I do not agree that good players can not go on a >5 buy-in downswing. I will say that it sucked and I started to question myself when I lost the 6th buyin.

Come back around 3k+ and let us know sharky

The buyins lost dont just "disapeer", if you lose 5 buyins you should personally review hands disecting what went wrong, or have help reviewing them. I can see 5-6 buyins tops, but no more count as a "downswing", they will count as bad play.

^

This is somewhat true...but sometimes stuff happens and we are all.human and it will.happen.

But IMO after losing 10 buy ins you should move down a level recoup think things over.

Another variable to consider is factoring in the pots we win, winning a small $50 pot is 1/4 of a buy in, calling a shortstack push with AK and winning, $200 pot. So if someone does lose 5-6 buyins, they are actually losing about 9-10 if that makes sense.

i will come back after 3k hours and let you know, my game will probably improve over that time too so i might even have a longer winning record

BTW: my style is TAG with emphasis on aggression, i use my image to run successfull bluffs. Very foldy pre, and i do not bleed.

its uncapped at casears if youre lookin for deep play

Win-rates - (per hour)

1/2NL : $10-$20
2/5NL: $25-$50 (probably closer to 35ish max)
5/10: $45-$100 (probably closer to 75ish max)

Bankroll -

1/2NL : $2,000-$4,000 (depends on skill level and game structure)
2/5NL: $6,000-$12,000 (depends on skill level and game structure)
5/10NL: $20,000-$50,000 (depends on skill level and game structure)

Finances -

My best advice would be to keep a bankroll totally isolated from everything else. A separate checking account is the best play. Also, sometimes it is smart to draft a check at the cashier cage, vs buying in with cash or using an ATM. Depending on how you file taxes, having records showing checks written to the casino can be beneficial. Also saves on ATM fees, and is safer then carrying cash.

thanks. how many ''bullets'' would you bring per session? 2-3 buyins? more, less?

I'm a winning player for about $14/hr of 1/2 over 600 hours thru 2 years. I had a -$1200 month once. that was 6 BI.

Depends on how capable you are of playing your best despite variance.

I never bring more than 2.5 bi and usually if I dip in its a situation where I lose a decent sized pot, say $125 then I add back on to make sure I always have the max allowed in front of me.