Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-28-2013, 01:42 PM   #5076
kb coolman
Pooh-Bah
 
kb coolman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: must...not...feed...trolls
Posts: 5,452
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***



My WR at 1/2 last month was 38bb/hr. You telling me that's not sustainable?

kb coolman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 01:44 PM   #5077
11t
Bo Pelini's #1 Fan
 
11t's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Spewville
Posts: 30,998
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

fwiw the same thing happened with online poker where everybody thought everybody was winning at 10bb/100 or w/e then people actually did a big database pool and it was like "oh **** we all suck"
11t is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 01:49 PM   #5078
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,985
I dropped 30% in one bad month at 600+ hours.

So ya...quit spewing truth, 11t.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 01:50 PM   #5079
thenextguy
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 98
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

May was my first month of official record keeping. This is all at $5/$5 NL. I'm pretty happy with the results. There was one specific hand that was a horrible bad beat that would have swung my results +2400. I'd like my long-term win rate to be higher than $46/hour, but one month doesn't mean much either way. On to June!


thenextguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 01:54 PM   #5080
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,985
You're setting yourself up for disappointment after just one month, especially one that looks as hot as yours
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 01:55 PM   #5081
squid face
ChatThreadPrez
 
squid face's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: cloudbase! Aint no time 4 gravity
Posts: 7,586
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeldog00 View Post
I agree 100% with this. if 50 an hour for a good player in vegas is the norm, the games here are 10x softer, so 70/hr is more that doable, but ill be more than happy with 50-60. the reason I put in so many hours is bc of not knowing how long it will last, but I have a feeling once my bankroll is 50-80k ill be putting in 35-40 hours a week instead of 55-60. right now I enjoy it though
50 smacks per hour is NOT the norm for a vegas pro. It is the norm for the ELITE vegas pros of which there is a handfull. 25-35 is the norm for the abc vegas pro capable of pulling off the occasional bruff
squid face is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 01:57 PM   #5082
11t
Bo Pelini's #1 Fan
 
11t's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Spewville
Posts: 30,998
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

yeah that is exactly what I'm getting at.

people in this forum think good = great, which is not the case.
11t is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 02:03 PM   #5083
thenextguy
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 98
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
You're setting yourself up for disappointment after just one month, especially one that looks as hot as yours
I don't think $46/hour at $5/$5 is a very hot month.
thenextguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 02:07 PM   #5084
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,985
Of course you don't, hence you think long term at 46+ is possible.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 02:11 PM   #5085
The Rumor
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
The Rumor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Wherever my loanshark isn't
Posts: 9,559
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Is it that hard to believe your results over 140 hours aren't going to be the same as your results over 1400 hours?
The Rumor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 02:13 PM   #5086
thenextguy
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 98
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rumor View Post
Is it that hard to believe your results over 140 hours aren't going to be the same as your results over 1400 hours?
Not at all. I didn't believe I said anything that suggested it would be. I just don't think <$10BB/hour is some kind of heater month.

By the way, this was my first month of record keeping. Not my first month playing. I have been winning at this level long before this month.
thenextguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 02:16 PM   #5087
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,985
And I didn't say that it was a super hot month, just a hot one.

Any month that's within 1-2bb of 10bb is a hot month.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 02:27 PM   #5088
thenextguy
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 98
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
And I didn't say that it was a super hot month, just a hot one.

Any month that's within 1-2bb of 10bb is a hot month.
We shall see. Pros I respect have beaten this game for over $50/hour long-term, so that is what I aspire to.
thenextguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 02:31 PM   #5089
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 29,679
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
I dropped 30% in one bad month at 600+ hours.

So ya...quit spewing truth, 11t.
In my last ~30% of sessions I made the same amount as I did in my first ~70% of sessions. This game is swongy, imo.

GhurrayforpositiveswongsG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 02:54 PM   #5090
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,985
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
In my last ~30% of sessions I made the same amount as I did in my first ~70% of sessions. This game is swongy, imo.

GhurrayforpositiveswongsG
I am not fortunate enough to have stable games, and my WR varies quite a bit depends on availability of the game or even just certain players.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 03:18 PM   #5091
Sol Reader
The Situation
 
Sol Reader's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq
Posts: 9,379
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I sometimes wonder if these numbers being so low is purely because the games are that much tougher in the US, and if so, why is everyone going to vegas to play over series?
Sol Reader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 03:24 PM   #5092
D0UGHBOY
Self Rising
 
D0UGHBOY's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 2,646
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
I sometimes wonder if these numbers being so low is purely because the games are that much tougher in the US, and if so, why is everyone going to vegas to play over series?
The games are generally much tougher in the US. There are tons of reasons to go to the World Series. Its the best time to schedule meetups with other 2+2ers. Also you can find some great games. On the whole tournament pros are pretty bad at cash. Then you have the wannabe tournament pros who are even worse.

Going to Vegas during the World Series just comes down to game selection. Some games you have 6-7 grinders who came from all over to grind 2/5-5/10 cash and at another table you have 6-7 clueless droolers and 2-3 grinders.
D0UGHBOY is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 03:28 PM   #5093
The Rumor
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
The Rumor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Wherever my loanshark isn't
Posts: 9,559
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
I sometimes wonder if these numbers being so low is purely because the games are that much tougher in the US, and if so, why is everyone going to vegas to play over series?
There's probably a lot of reasons that vary by person and location.

The latter is a very good question. Ike has talked before about the games being better in Chicago over the Series since some of the good players go to LV for a week or something ridiculous but not that many of the fish go.
The Rumor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 03:32 PM   #5094
bwslim69
I'm a Diva, Bruh
 
bwslim69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: TPS reports
Posts: 19,863
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t View Post
yeah that is exactly what I'm getting at.

people in this forum think good = great, which is not the case.
I don't disagree with you. But we go through this at the end of every month with people poo-pooing everyone's hourly as unrealistic.

I think Vegas is a bit of an anomaly except during WSOP time. I have no way of knowing outside of June/July but I suspect that weekends are considerably more profitable than a weekday reg line-up.

All i will say is if pros are winning at $25-30/hr at 2/5 they need to relocate because there are most certainly casinos where a MUCH higher winrate is possible (I am assuming these are solid winning pros and not LOL live pros).
bwslim69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 03:39 PM   #5095
The Rumor
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
The Rumor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Wherever my loanshark isn't
Posts: 9,559
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
I don't disagree with you. But we go through this at the end of every month with people poo-pooing everyone's hourly as unrealistic.

I think Vegas is a bit of an anomaly except during WSOP time. I have no way of knowing outside of June/July but I suspect that weekends are considerably more profitable than a weekday reg line-up.

All i will say is if pros are winning at $25-30/hr at 2/5 they need to relocate because there are most certainly casinos where a MUCH higher winrate is possible (I am assuming these are solid winning pros and not LOL live pros).
I think this is basically impossible, though, unless your 2/5 game is terrible or has some terrible rules. If you can really only make $25/hr in it, you are a very, very good player but you aren't so skilled that you are likely to magically make $40-50/hr by moving.

Certainly you can probably make more in better markets (Florida comes to mind) but you won't magically transform into the biggest winner in the game. If you're making $50/hr at 2/5 you're probably about the best player in your room unless the games are incredible.
The Rumor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 03:42 PM   #5096
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,985
I could theoretically make more by relocating, but relocating results in horrible -EV.

Ps. 10bb at 2/5 is very rare - let's just accept that and move on.

Last edited by Richard Parker; 05-28-2013 at 03:47 PM.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 03:58 PM   #5097
bwslim69
I'm a Diva, Bruh
 
bwslim69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: TPS reports
Posts: 19,863
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rumor View Post
I think this is basically impossible, though, unless your 2/5 game is terrible or has some terrible rules. If you can really only make $25/hr in it, you are a very, very good player but you aren't so skilled that you are likely to magically make $40-50/hr by moving.

Certainly you can probably make more in better markets (Florida comes to mind) but you won't magically transform into the biggest winner in the game. If you're making $50/hr at 2/5 you're probably about the best player in your room unless the games are incredible.
I said this tongue in cheek but I think a $25/hr "pro" is probably not "very, very good"...but rather ok-ish IMO. Maybe I'm wrong. My two casinos are relatively new player pools so perhaps my results are skewed. IDK but there seem to be more than a few players in one room in particular that are clearly earning more than 45-50/hr.

I could be wrong tho.
bwslim69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 04:13 PM   #5098
The Rumor
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
The Rumor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Wherever my loanshark isn't
Posts: 9,559
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I think it's quite possible a handful could make $50/hr on the weekend.

But not playing 40 hours a week, no, it's hard to imagine you have that many fish and that the average reg can be that bad, unless you have a high volume of games

I would think in a town where ten 2/5 games run on the weekend and 2-3 run mid-week, there are going to be a few people who can sustain a $40-50/hour win rate.

If there are only three 2/5+ games on the weekend and one or two on weeknights, it's possible almost no one can do so unless the games are deep and there's a fish or two they are built around.
The Rumor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 04:14 PM   #5099
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,985
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rumor View Post
I think it's quite possible a handful could make $50/hr on the weekend.

But not playing 40 hours a week, no, it's hard to imagine you have that many fish and that the average reg can be that bad.
Yes sir.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-28-2013, 04:30 PM   #5100
Sol Reader
The Situation
 
Sol Reader's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq
Posts: 9,379
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

You guys make the games in US sound awful, why would you even play there. Also isn't poker meant to be far more popular in the states why aren't there more non pros playing there?
Sol Reader is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:25 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online