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 Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

 05-21-2013, 02:08 PM #5001 Walter1 journeyman   Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 342 Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances *** Sorry im sure this comes up a lot.... how do u figure out std deviation, if someone could point me to a place to figure out how to calculate it, or just explain in PM or something or here, thatd be greatly appreciated
05-21-2013, 02:15 PM   #5002
ikestoys
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 11t tbh, most online players would say you want 100+ BI
Well.... no. They'd be wrong. It's a function of your win rate, variance, and, most importantly, if you're willing to move down if things hit the ****ter.

 05-21-2013, 02:16 PM #5003 fogodchao veteran     Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: LA Posts: 3,441 Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances *** Poker journal calculates your std deviation for you.
05-21-2013, 02:50 PM   #5004
The Rumor
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Walter1 Sorry im sure this comes up a lot.... how do u figure out std deviation, if someone could point me to a place to figure out how to calculate it, or just explain in PM or something or here, thatd be greatly appreciated
Try google. Or just use excel, which will calculate the standard deviation of a series of numbers based on a sample.

 05-21-2013, 03:05 PM #5005 PuraVida96 old hand     Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,556 Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances *** I keep all my records by hand so I don't have a fancy PJ chart or sweet graph like Sol (nice job man!) but here are my 2/5 numbers since moving up in September. I tally up my session and calculate this stuff every two months or so and I'm very happy with my 2013 results so far although I should be putting in more hours. Overall, 11.5bb/hr over 518 hrs. In 2013 15.9bb/hr over 286 hrs. This is in a 200-500 game with a \$6 rake +\$1 BBJ. Unfortunately the 5/10 game died as I was taking shots so haven't been able to get in many hours in that game. Looking forward to deeper 2/5 and 5/10 games in Vegas this summer.
 05-21-2013, 03:40 PM #5006 kb coolman Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: must...not...feed...trolls Posts: 5,452 Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances *** ^^ Very nice, man. Even with a **** rake. I just downloaded Poker Manager for Android, and entered in my sessions for the past month. Luckily, I've been keeping basic records (time played, win/loss). I'm curious to know what my stats will look like in 5-6 months.
05-21-2013, 03:57 PM   #5007
Avaritia
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Walter1 Sorry im sure this comes up a lot.... how do u figure out std deviation, if someone could point me to a place to figure out how to calculate it, or just explain in PM or something or here, thatd be greatly appreciated
Ill try to post a sample spreadsheet in here tonight. Feel free to pm me if I forget. But yea steps for calc sd:

1). Find the mean of your sample
2). For each number in your sample, subtract the mean.
3). For each result, square the number.
4). Find the mean of these squared differences
5). Take the square root of that mean.

And you have standard deviation. In very simple terms it is simply "the square root of the variance".

I'm sure google has some simple examples out there if this seems confusing.

05-21-2013, 04:05 PM   #5008
Avaritia
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kb coolman I'm really just getting back to regular live play. It's a part time thing for me (1-2 times/wk). I have an excellent paying full time job, and poker will only ever be a side income. Regarding BRM, I've always felt 20-30BI was more of an online recommendation, given how much quicker the game plays and multi-tabling, etc. For a live part time player, isn't 10BI sufficient? I know personal tolerance factors in, but am I really over exposing myself if I start taking shots at 2/5 when I've built up to \$5k?
From someone also taking 2/5 shots (and likely going to be permanent soon) I would say \$5k is pretty thin, but ok with disciplined shot takes. Do not chase losses at the 2/5 if you downswing 2 buyins, you must go back to 1/2.

From a Math standpoint, you can look at your stats (if you track) and calculate a "risk of ruin", which can be googled.

05-21-2013, 04:16 PM   #5009
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kb coolman ^^ Very nice, man. Even with a **** rake. I just downloaded Poker Manager for Android, and entered in my sessions for the past month. Luckily, I've been keeping basic records (time played, win/loss). I'm curious to know what my stats will look like in 5-6 months.
Hi, kb. Long time.

10 buy ins isn't enough, IMO, unless you're going to move down with every downswing.

Since moving to Vegas I have had one or two -10 bi d'swings at 1/2, where my edge is pretty huge.

05-21-2013, 05:48 PM   #5010
ProFeSSa D
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by serio562 Foldstein, I can't/won't play \$100 max games in LA anymore. The rake makes the game practically unbeatable no matter how bad the players are.
Just curious Serio which games do you play in LA?

05-21-2013, 05:55 PM   #5011
iLikeCaliDonks
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by kb coolman I'm really just getting back to regular live play. It's a part time thing for me (1-2 times/wk). I have an excellent paying full time job, and poker will only ever be a side income. Regarding BRM, I've always felt 20-30BI was more of an online recommendation, given how much quicker the game plays and multi-tabling, etc. For a live part time player, isn't 10BI sufficient? I know personal tolerance factors in, but am I really over exposing myself if I start taking shots at 2/5 when I've built up to \$5k?
When you are a rec player don't worry about your bankroll. Your job future earnings is your bankroll. Moveup to 2/5 as quick as possible. Especially since you only play once a week.

05-21-2013, 06:02 PM   #5012
kb coolman
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Avaritia From someone also taking 2/5 shots (and likely going to be permanent soon) I would say \$5k is pretty thin, but ok with disciplined shot takes. Do not chase losses at the 2/5 if you downswing 2 buyins, you must go back to 1/2. From a Math standpoint, you can look at your stats (if you track) and calculate a "risk of ruin", which can be googled.
Since BF, I haven't played much outside an occasional run up to Winstar and my buddy's \$20 home tourney game. Still, I've always kept \$500-600 that is strictly poker money in a cigar box. I decided to start part time grinding again, and have it up to \$2k now, and I'm just now feeling a little bit comfortable. It will be a while before I take a shot, and even then it will only be 1BI at a good table.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by mpethybridge Hi, kb. Long time. 10 buy ins isn't enough, IMO, unless you're going to move down with every downswing. Since moving to Vegas I have had one or two -10 bi d'swings at 1/2, where my edge is pretty huge.
Hey man! Has been a long time.

Like I said earlier, it would only be a one BI shot when I hit \$5k. BR is the only thing keeping me out of the games now at Winstar...I know I'd have an edge, but they can play very aggressive, so I'd be willing to take the 1BI shot with a decent chance of leaving up 1-3BI in a session. I don't see it becoming my 'regular' game until I'm up to \$12.5k.

I've got a regular 1/2 game where I have a huge edge, so I'm building quickly. I also know that the edge I have in this game won't translate to other games, so I just have to be aware.

One other thing is that I have much better discipline with BRM when I'm playing live. I take 2-3BI with me, \$40 for misc, and leave my debit cards at home so I can't talk myself into hitting the ATM for more \$\$ when I go past my stop-loss.

05-21-2013, 06:04 PM   #5013
The Rumor
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by mpethybridge Hi, kb. Long time. 10 buy ins isn't enough, IMO, unless you're going to move down with every downswing. Since moving to Vegas I have had one or two -10 bi d'swings at 1/2, where my edge is pretty huge.
To be fair if he can replenish his roll from his income (and he's willing to do so) he can shot take before then.

05-21-2013, 06:13 PM   #5014
kb coolman
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks When you are a rec player don't worry about your bankroll. Your job future earnings is your bankroll. Moveup to 2/5 as quick as possible. Especially since you only play once a week.
I don't really have that kind of flex with my job earnings. I'm a family man, sole provider, and a budget nazi. The only way it works on a personal level is to keep it completely separated. Therefore, bankroll.

I do have some side consulting that I can throw at my BR. I'll also be doing some adjunct work at a JC which is extra income and could go towards BR, if needed. However, that money isn't consistent and not guaranteed, so I don't count on it being available.

05-21-2013, 06:18 PM   #5015
ProFeSSa D
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by fogodchao Would definitely be interested in a cotm on table selection. Can't believe how much I overlooked its effect on wr when I started out. Tbh, for me at least, for some reason I feel uncomfortable scoping tables out since I feel like it marks you as a thinking player. I know this doesn't matter and I just need to accept it since the juice is definitely worth the squeeze. My new goal is going to be to become the best table selector in my casino. Shouldn't be any different, and is probably more important, than when I made my first goal in live poker to become the best pre flop player in the room.
I'm in the same boat as you on this one. I never like people to know that I have "selected" their table. A little trick for this (as silly as it sounds) is to hold your phone up to your ear while looking around. It's a minor detail but it will make it look like youre trying to find a friend or something. For the full "sell", you can mutter nonsense to your self like "yeah, I'm in the poker room, where are you?"

Another fun trick is to buy \$25 chips from the cage so ppl think you just came from the table games.

05-21-2013, 08:47 PM   #5016
King Fish
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kb coolman I do have some side consulting that I can throw at my BR. I'll also be doing some adjunct work at a JC which is extra income and could go towards BR, if needed. However, that money isn't consistent and not guaranteed, so I don't count on it being available.
I have a consulting business myself. I have one customer that I can't stand, but that pays very well. Every cent I make from that one customer only, goes into my shot taking fund.

That way, it makes it much easier and enjoyable to do work for those SOBs .

Also, regarding shot taking, I may be a nit but I hate the "1 BI shot". Personally, I like to have 3BIs I'm willing to risk. That way if I really do have an edge, I give myself more of a fighting chance. 1 BI can be too risky. Probably better off taking it and putting it on one hand of BJ. If u win, then at least u have a bit of a cushion.

05-21-2013, 09:36 PM   #5017
serio562
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by ProFeSSa D Just curious Serio which games do you play in LA?
Mostly the Bike 2/3 or 3/5 NLH game. I do pop in at Garden, Commerce, or Hustler from time to time.

 05-22-2013, 12:44 AM #5018 Fraggle journeyman     Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 214 Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances *** Just started playing live again. Have been playing 1-2 and 2-3 at local cardrooms where no rake is taken and you are encouraged to tip the dealers, which is usually between \$1-\$3 per pot, and about \$5-\$8 on the big pots if you choose. My winrate for the past 2 1/2 months is between \$28-\$30/hr. I'm sure the fact that no rake is taken plays largely into this winrate.
 05-22-2013, 06:53 AM #5019 kb coolman Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: must...not...feed...trolls Posts: 5,452 Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances *** No rake is a huge factor, and that tip structure is pretty standard even in a raked game. Anything that keeps chips on the table is to your advantage. Last edited by kb coolman; 05-22-2013 at 06:58 AM.
05-22-2013, 10:32 AM   #5020
Avaritia
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Fraggle Just started playing live again. Have been playing 1-2 and 2-3 at local cardrooms where no rake is taken and you are encouraged to tip the dealers, which is usually between \$1-\$3 per pot, and about \$5-\$8 on the big pots if you choose. My winrate for the past 2 1/2 months is between \$28-\$30/hr. I'm sure the fact that no rake is taken plays largely into this winrate.
Dafuq!? How does the room make money? I could tip \$3 a hand and be paying half of what I pay now.

Sounds awesome.

05-22-2013, 04:13 PM   #5021
WinEvryRacex
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by mpethybridge Hi, kb. Long time. 10 buy ins isn't enough, IMO, unless you're going to move down with every downswing. Since moving to Vegas I have had one or two -10 bi d'swings at 1/2, where my edge is pretty huge.
I'm curious, how many months have you played since moving to vegas? Hours/month? Hourly?

 05-22-2013, 07:51 PM #5022 Number1Hater Confused About Butt Stuff     Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 12,621 Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances *** making \$31.40/hour over 131h42m of play at 1/2. this is with a \$8 rake. they also rake preflop too.(not sure if most places rake preflop?). so if its a 3b pot, they still take rake. small sample, but how am i doing?
05-22-2013, 08:10 PM   #5023
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kb12345 OFC he will never say games are really juicy, but if anyone can make 200k in a year games are obviously very good. I can guarantee they are much much better than australia, as he could not get out of here fast enough. And the games here are very very beatable. Also congrats on the win.
I can neither confirm nor deny this!

Really though the Australian games were soft, but I think it has a middling ceiling for winrate. It's not hard to make 40~ an hour (imo), but tough to get much higher because the game plays so small due to buyin caps and how tight the game runs. Does this mean the games in the UK are MUCH MUCH softer? Not exactly. I think the games in the UK play much softer, and it's much easier, if you're decent, to win more money, which is similar to softer, but not exactly the same. It's more profitable for a good player to play in the UK or EPT circuits though; having uncapped or high capped games is really important when you start to play well postflop and put pressure (both pre and post), something that's tough to do in Australian games. At the same time, it's tougher to have a huge downswing in those games, and the bankroll requirement is considerably less. I've had multiple 2k+ downswings at 1/2 in the UK despite my high winrate.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BackBlood siiiickkk graph sol! What limits are these and where do you play. V V nice
London, mostly Vic, Empire. some 10/25, mostly 5/10, some 2/5 and 1/2. Spread depends a lot on game availability, the season, etc. I travel to play some tournament series too (mostly for the cash games though I'd recently cashed in a tournament again for peanuts.

Recently did a 20 day challenge! (only 16 days played though).

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=211

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Sol Reader Forgot to post my results for the challenge! Ended up playing only 16 days due to sickness and other concerns. Here are stats and graph: Definitely ran good during this period. Going to have a more sustained and volume oriented volume challenge after June or July.

05-22-2013, 09:57 PM   #5024
fogodchao
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ProFeSSa D I'm in the same boat as you on this one. I never like people to know that I have "selected" their table. A little trick for this (as silly as it sounds) is to hold your phone up to your ear while looking around. It's a minor detail but it will make it look like youre trying to find a friend or something. For the full "sell", you can mutter nonsense to your self like "yeah, I'm in the poker room, where are you?" Another fun trick is to buy \$25 chips from the cage so ppl think you just came from the table games.
That's really funny you mention the phone trick bc that was literally the only thing I could come up with when I was thinking about it.

It will be awkward when other regs start noticing me walking around the room with my phone screaming "Johnny! Where are you!" every day. Gonna think there is no Johnny and I'm crazy.

05-23-2013, 04:55 AM   #5025
Angrist
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by fogodchao That's really funny you mention the phone trick bc that was literally the only thing I could come up with when I was thinking about it. It will be awkward when other regs start noticing me walking around the room with my phone screaming "Johnny! Where are you!" every day. Gonna think there is no Johnny and I'm crazy.
If they're regs enough to recognize that you're there every day, they'll also be able to figure out that you're a good player.

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