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Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

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Old 11-22-2010, 01:53 PM   #326
BAEVentures
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Re: Honest Win Rates?

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Originally Posted by Mergatroid View Post
It appears that Luke expects to win in 60% of his sessions, is this reasonable?

Thoughts?
Small sample size once again but I do believe it is very possibly to win in 60% or more of sessions. Obviously depends on the difficulty of your game but @ 200NL or 500NL live I think it is very achievable, possibly even to win @ 70% of sessions.

35 sessions, 10 losing, 24 winning, 1 even. 206 hours. (3 tournament sessions included cause I'm too lazy to filter).

24/35 or 68% winning sessions. I should also note, that until June of 2010 I would have considered myself a recreational amateur player, it was July 2010 before I ever really worked on my live and online game.

17 sessions since July 2010, 12 winning, 4 losing, 1 even or 71% winning sessions.

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Old 11-22-2010, 09:06 PM   #327
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

^ no
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Old 11-22-2010, 10:35 PM   #328
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Just curious what the worst downswing (consecutive buy-ins lost) some of u have had playing 1-2? I'm mostly looking for longterm winners experiences here. So if your winning $10+/hour or more over 500+ hours whats the worst downswing you've experienced?
I'm currently on a 13 BI downswing at 1/2. I haven't been playing too long term but meh.
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Old 11-22-2010, 10:42 PM   #329
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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^ no
lol
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Old 11-23-2010, 01:47 AM   #330
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Re: Honest Win Rates?

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Originally Posted by Mergatroid View Post
I read a quote by Luke Kim-

"There are not too many jobs in which there is a 40% chance that your compensation on a given day is below zero."

And wondered if this was a true win rate of a person playing poker for a living.

It appears that Luke expects to win in 60% of his sessions, is this reasonable?

Thoughts?
According to StatKing, I've got a 63.75% daily win rate for the year. Having played 73.62% of the days so far. Averaging 7.87 hours per day.

Last year, my daily win rate was 59.79%, playing more hours per day and more days. I'm getting better! Hourly win rate is up nicely as well, on a year over year basis.

Lee
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Old 11-23-2010, 11:15 PM   #331
peakyuk
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starting roll for 1/1

Been playing 1/1NL at local casino for a few weeks now once or twice a week and have managed to win without keeping any records or bank roll im a student so tend to just win it and spend it. However i want to take it a bit more seriously and after the holidays want to start with a sufficient roll and try grinding it as the games are very soft lots of degens who dont really no how to play. so my question is what do you think a sufficient starting roll would be to play 1/1 no limit.

I was thinking £300 but thats only like 6 buy ins ?
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Old 11-23-2010, 11:21 PM   #332
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Re: starting roll for 1/1

Most people think you need alot of money to play live. I disagree you are going to need atleast 1k. thats 10buyins make sure you buy in for the max everytime
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Old 11-23-2010, 11:27 PM   #333
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Re: starting roll for 1/1

^ sounds about right. 6-700 would be fine by me if your winning consistently.
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Old 11-23-2010, 11:30 PM   #334
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Re: starting roll for 1/1

yh but im a student i dont really have a k knocking about to gamble with. anyways so my goal is to start with £300 n try and turn it into a thousand then ill have a sufficient roll haha im sure people have turned less into more
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Old 11-24-2010, 12:33 AM   #335
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Re: starting roll for 1/1

I started with $800 in 1/2nl and I now play 2/5nl with a 10k roll. So it can be done with less I just dont recommend not buying in for less then 100bb
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Old 11-24-2010, 04:26 AM   #336
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Re: starting roll for 1/1

Short-stacking is preferable if you have a limited bankroll (as you do) and you are capable of implementing an effective short-stack strategy. Despite what many will say here, short-stacking, if you implement the correct strategy, can be very profitable (especially if the games you play in are very deep). Make sure you leave after you double-up until your roll gets built up.

Read up on proper short-stacking strategy. Basically, only play premiums pre-flop, 3-bet shove a lot pre with your best premiums (especially if you buy-in for less than 50bb), ship it if you hit the flop. Still, even buying in short for 50bb, that's only 6 buy-ins, so you have a very good chance of going broke. There's simply no way around that.

If you can buy in for less than 50bb, do so.

If you are a good player and run good at first, then you might be able to build a roll. If you are either a) not a good player or b) run bad, then you will go broke. It's as simple as that.

It doesn't sound like you're trying to play for a living, so don't worry about anyone who tells you that you need 30+ full buy-ins or whatever. If you can afford to lose your bankroll and aren't depending on poker income to meet your daily needs, then go ahead and take a shot, but understand that it is only a shot - there is no foolproof way to try to build a real roll from a few hundreds dollars/euros, so if you're looking for such a method, it does not exist.

If you really want to gamble and/or think you're much better full-stacked than short-stacked, then split the 300 up into 3 buy-ins and hope for the best.

Cliffs:

Buying in short reduces variance somewhat, but it's still likely that you go broke with such a small bankroll, so don't try this if you can't afford to lose the money.

Last edited by Rambler1; 11-24-2010 at 04:35 AM.
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Old 11-24-2010, 05:06 PM   #337
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Re: starting roll for 1/1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rambler1 View Post
Short-stacking is preferable if you have a limited bankroll (as you do) and you are capable of implementing an effective short-stack strategy. Despite what many will say here, short-stacking, if you implement the correct strategy, can be very profitable (especially if the games you play in are very deep). Make sure you leave after you double-up until your roll gets built up.

Read up on proper short-stacking strategy. Basically, only play premiums pre-flop, 3-bet shove a lot pre with your best premiums (especially if you buy-in for less than 50bb), ship it if you hit the flop. Still, even buying in short for 50bb, that's only 6 buy-ins, so you have a very good chance of going broke. There's simply no way around that.

If you can buy in for less than 50bb, do so.

If you are a good player and run good at first, then you might be able to build a roll. If you are either a) not a good player or b) run bad, then you will go broke. It's as simple as that.

It doesn't sound like you're trying to play for a living, so don't worry about anyone who tells you that you need 30+ full buy-ins or whatever. If you can afford to lose your bankroll and aren't depending on poker income to meet your daily needs, then go ahead and take a shot, but understand that it is only a shot - there is no foolproof way to try to build a real roll from a few hundreds dollars/euros, so if you're looking for such a method, it does not exist.

If you really want to gamble and/or think you're much better full-stacked than short-stacked, then split the 300 up into 3 buy-ins and hope for the best.

Cliffs:

Buying in short reduces variance somewhat, but it's still likely that you go broke with such a small bankroll, so don't try this if you can't afford to lose the money.
cheers for the advice, well yes im going to give it a shot anyways buying in for 50bb getting it in good against the degenerate gamblers i played the other day and shoved 50bb with a,6 of diamonds and got called by j,4o by a man with 400bb lmao, he hit two pair on flop though. But im going to wait till after xmas to give this £300 roll a shot
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Old 11-24-2010, 06:21 PM   #338
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Re: starting roll for 1/1

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Originally Posted by peakyuk View Post
cheers for the advice, well yes im going to give it a shot anyways buying in for 50bb getting it in good against the degenerate gamblers i played the other day and shoved 50bb with a,6 of diamonds and got called by j,4o by a man with 400bb lmao, he hit two pair on flop though. But im going to wait till after xmas to give this £300 roll a shot
I'm not a short stack expert, but when I said premium hands, I most definitely wasn't talking about A6 suited.

Shoving preflop with A6 suited 50bb deep is terribad.
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Old 11-25-2010, 01:30 PM   #339
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I'm a winning player at 50nl 6max online... And I've been thinking about diversifying to live play. I beat 50nl for about 3.5 bb/100 over a large (350k roughly) sample. I'm a pretty standard tag imo. What sort of winrate should i expect live? Bear in mind that my local card room has a 5% rake up to 6$. This obviously seems really high to me- is it beatable for enough to make it +EV vs online?
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Old 11-25-2010, 01:43 PM   #340
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

boredsocial: in short, yes. you will be crushing after month 1.
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Old 11-25-2010, 03:20 PM   #341
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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boredsocial: in short, yes. you will be crushing after month 1.
trynaChill speaks from experience ofc
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Old 11-25-2010, 03:36 PM   #342
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

25hrs $68/hr at 1/2

ya i know, nice heater.
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Old 11-25-2010, 06:00 PM   #343
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by BoredSocial View Post
I'm a winning player at 50nl 6max online... And I've been thinking about diversifying to live play. I beat 50nl for about 3.5 bb/100 over a large (350k roughly) sample. I'm a pretty standard tag imo. What sort of winrate should i expect live? Bear in mind that my local card room has a 5% rake up to 6$. This obviously seems really high to me- is it beatable for enough to make it +EV vs online?
If you can make adjustments from your current game to account for FR play, live shouldn't be difficult for you. Start a 1/2 to get the hang of the rhythm of the game. The hardest transition will be how slow things will appear to move to a 6max player. You'll be tempted to play more hands than you should.
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Old 11-26-2010, 03:56 AM   #344
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Ive started to play live 1/2 nl have played a good 4 sessions so far and am up each session.

Winnings so far is $1377 hoping to expand on that.

Put in a good 14hours

edit: I have bought in 100bbs the last 2 sessions, it works wonders my gosh
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Old 11-26-2010, 03:00 PM   #345
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by zeal3 View Post
Ive started to play live 1/2 nl have played a good 4 sessions so far and am up each session.

Winnings so far is $1377 hoping to expand on that.

Put in a good 14hours

edit: I have bought in 100bbs the last 2 sessions, it works wonders my gosh
$100/hr. nice run
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Old 11-27-2010, 03:09 PM   #346
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

nice thread, in the winter months my casino (wendover, NV) is much jucier and i hope to rebuild my roll from my last 2-5 shot.

I got rivered twice with an ace in 2 pots totaling 1.3k it was soo sick, after this i tilted 1k off at BJ and roulette.
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Old 11-28-2010, 05:58 AM   #347
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by bubonicplay View Post
nice thread, in the winter months my casino (wendover, NV) is much jucier and i hope to rebuild my roll from my last 2-5 shot.

I got rivered twice with an ace in 2 pots totaling 1.3k it was soo sick, after this i tilted 1k off at BJ and roulette.
Eww... roulette. Use a bigger roll than 2k for sure.
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Old 11-28-2010, 07:34 AM   #348
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by BoredSocial View Post
I'm a winning player at 50nl 6max online... And I've been thinking about diversifying to live play. I beat 50nl for about 3.5 bb/100 over a large (350k roughly) sample. I'm a pretty standard tag imo. What sort of winrate should i expect live? Bear in mind that my local card room has a 5% rake up to 6$. This obviously seems really high to me- is it beatable for enough to make it +EV vs online?
maybe close to 80-90K hands at nl50 on HEM im running like 6.9bb.

U can crush it but when i first started to play live more and more u have toa djust. its a different game, same mechanics.

get used to long stretches of boredom and mind numbing abc play.

gl man i made the move but every time i move back to grinding mroe live or online it takes me a session or 2 to adjust, but its been quicker then before.
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Old 11-28-2010, 05:06 PM   #349
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Jeff28 View Post
I was playing at the Horseshoe, where they allow electronic devices. One of my tighter opponents set his smart phone on the rail and was playing a video game. A video game!

I complained and was told the Horseshoe Chicago allows electronic devices at the table. I said then I'll bring my Nintendo next time.

Or maybe my wife and I will play at the same tables and text our hands back and forth. Or maybe I'll run all-in ev calculations in big pots.

I mean, what a freaking joke!
i do this all the time if there isn't a good sports game on. I mean, I can play tight ABc poker where I play and sustain a good rate. I don't really need to pay incredible attention and follow every hand.

Edit: you can't use a phone in any sense while you are IN a hand, only went you don't have cards, obv.

Last edited by MrBrightside; 11-28-2010 at 05:12 PM. Reason: addition
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Old 11-30-2010, 02:36 AM   #350
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Originally Posted by Shoulders View Post
can anyone estimate the winrate for a live 3/6 omaha hi/lo with a kill?
same for 5/10 if possible, as this group of players rotate the stakes, they are pretty weak I hear.

I play a lot of PLO online but I havn't learned oh8 yet, wondering if its even
worth it.

rake is $3 on flop capped at 4$
I see nobody has answered you - they're all busy playing NLHE.

My data so far. I started tracking again at the beginning of October. Two sessions at The Orleans, the remainder (so far) at Winstar. Orleans is 4/8 hk on 60 scoop, Winstar is 4/8 hk on 40 scoop.

sessions: 14
total won: $1174
hours: 53.95
winnings per hr: $21.76
per session: $83.86
winning sessions: 10

You can do some straight math to get a rough approximation of how 3/6 k should go, based on how the numbers pan out between 1/2 and 2/5 ITT.

Caveats: I have been playing O8 for years now, both live and online. I wasn't tracking for a long time due to lack of app availability/knowledge. (I am a proud Palm Pre owner.) However, I can say that on my previous trip to Orleans that was untracked, I had a healthy $20/30 hr profit, and most of my Winstar sessions were similar.

While O8 is reputed to be the lowest variance game, you will still have sessions where you just can't hit anything, and depending on the game and the players, you will still get a damn beatdown that will make you want to punch a wall. Flopping the nut nut draw and leading only to have the board pair on the river and someone leading into you from out of position... it's frustrating, especially if the jerk started with two pair.

If you do well in PLO, you understand the basics of how draws work in Omaha and the hand values that will win. Then you need to understand how the low works and understand pre-flop hand selection. Ray Zee's book may help you get a feel for that, though I actually feel like I play looser than he suggests, and I am usually the tightest or second tightest player at the table.

Is it worth it? I say yes, but I don't know how much money you're making elsewhere (if any), and I am a simple Denton boy with relatively simple needs.

Feel free to PM me with more questions. And if you're good, stay away from Oklahoma.

Last edited by hime; 11-30-2010 at 02:38 AM. Reason: argh, why would 3/6 be half kill?
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