Where can I go to learn more about Bart's experience there? Does he play there often? Tell me more about his sample. Any idea where he normally plays now? While I was at commerce I saw Bart maybe twice a year and everyone I know who plays at commerce rarely saw him either. The games at Commerce can go from good to awful when new crops of pro's come in from overseas which happens very often all year round which used to only be seasonal. Nothing against Bart but again I think its misleading and would like to hear more about his sample.

Update: Just used the google and while I couldn't find a specific total sample he did mention the hours were primarily Fri/Sat. Starting to make more sense. ---- Ending up reading more where he says that he admittedly ran very well and that included some serious v punting. Punting fish who buy in for the max are extremely rare nowadays. So still in the misleading camp in my book.

Agree, 1500 hours is a good sample size. That might be 50,000 hands. Odds are, his winrate is somewhere in that 100-140 range.

This is where it becomes speculative and I'm not sure I agree. Extrapolating this way is fairly questionable.

No one was arguing that $100/hr was impossible @ 5/10. The argument is that only a teeny portion of players can achieve that. If you've listened to any of Bart's material over the last year you would have heard him explain how day time games are much worse, especially because of Euros, so he expects EV to drop by at least half in noon prime hours. Other CLP coaches on Bart's payroll also feel $100/hr is a rather ambitious target for a capped straight 5/10 game especially when you account for daytime hours. Long story short, most grinders are expected to make less. There's a lot more Derek Fishers out there than Kobes.

When people talk about long term sustainable win rates they are talking about grinding out 2000 hours a year, year after year. It’s easy to find 500 soft hours a year almost anywhere. It’s impossible to find 2000 soft hours a year. So combining Bart’s 500 samples from 3-4 years and comparing it to a 2000 hour grinder is not an apples to apples comparison.

When you play full time you are often playing in games where your EV is drastically lower. Since volume is the name of the game as a pro this becomes a necessity and 100% leads to lower long term win rates. Why people have such a hard time grasping this common sense concept is mind boggling.

Please point me in the direction of the giraffe that shows $2,800,000 in earnings over the last 10 years playing exclusively 5/10. That’s 20,000 hours at $140/hr. I won’t hold my breath.

I would say its not being done even if you are Kobe over a meaningful full time sample nowadays.

If you're making $100-$140/hr you don't need to play 2000 hours a year. Of course nobody is going to have a graph of 20,000 hours of exclusively 5/10 over the last 10 years.

The fact that nobody has a graph like that is proof of nothing. Nobody making that much money plays that many hours or plays anywhere close to that many hours for 10 years.

If you dont think there are players who can sustain $100/hr playing 5/10, you really dont know much about the poker scene. Obviously its not very many people, but people can and are doing it.

It is very true that at Commerce in particular you see waves of overseas players who appear experienced, and then 3-4 weeks later they are gone forever (FYI my 270 hours are over 2+ years). It hasn't seemed to have much affect on my results though and my table has only been tough like 3 or 4 times out of 100 sessions. I honestly dont know what is 'in season' or 'off season' ... for me, its just more players or less... Really not a huge change throughout the year in skill level.

Also, for me Friday and Saturday are good times to play, but not always... and I have found Sunday afternoon to be really good on occasion because for certain rec players, thats the only time they show.

You may be right. I do think it’s fair to say my knowledge of the 5/10 landscape at Commerce is more credible than yours is though. I will continue believing that no one is doing it even if you go back to Commerce for another 6 days and win 1000000/hr.

There is a large difference in skill through the year depending when more pros are in town from overseas. The presence of a pro or more serious player taking the seat of a rec is going to have a big impact on game dynamics. While it may not have impacted your experience I am telling you that it impacted mine and I played a much larger sample recently.

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Fair enough, Quantum. I agree that only a small minority are capable of such winrates.

S. Florida is another place where pros from overseas pass thru in waves, so I know exactly what you mean. Right now we have some Brazilian guys here and a team of 6 Latvians just left. There 3 Czech guys that come for a month or 2 every year...ect.

Without a doubt, you know more about Commerce than I do. When I say $100+/hr is possible playing 5/10, Im talking about any 5/10 game. Ive played enough of it in a few different places around the Country to be 100% sure that's possible.

Ive only been to L.A. for poker once and I played in 4 different rooms. I played enough in those rooms to see that the action in all 4 rooms was glaringly better than where I play. It doesn't even matter how I ran or what my results were. There's no denying that the L.A. games are looser and softer than just about anywhere else in the Country.

Based on my extensive 2/5 experience....knowing what my win rate is...knowing how much softer the Commerce game is....knowing that its 5/5 instead of 2/5....I have no doubt whatsoever that the Commerce 5/5 can be beaten for $70-$75/hr.

So, I dont see how the Commerce 5/10 cant be beaten for $100/hr+.

Thx IRTM and GG.

GG - I believe there is a term for the pro/rec player, but it escapes me. I want to say "procreational".

Yes, it is. It's only about forty to fifty thousand hands.

I think G realized the necessity for a term here years ago and coined CRC (Competitive Recreational Cardplayer). ~90% of the opponents sitting at tables are CRCs (which include retirees attempting to earn a small income), at least in my experience.

GcluelessCRCnoobG

Well the term "reg" is close. Some people assign that to mean a winning player, while others just mean that it's someone that's there all the time.

Only? That's a lot of hands live where bb/100's are through the roof.

Winrates being higher has nothing to do with how many hands are needed to accurately assess things.

I don't believe that's true.

You specifically referred to Commerce when you mentioned certain hourly numbers. You are entitled to your own opinion though. However, if you don't have significant experience and you make such claims as you have it only hurts your credibility. You should not have 0 doubt. Again, you can say whatever you like and you seem to, but throwing out what some would consider an unsubstantiated claim does not help anyone.

It's kind of true in the sense that a 1BB/h error in measurement is relatively much more when your win-rate is only 1 BB/h compared to someone winning 15BB/h. Maybe that's what he means?

The BB/hr makes a huge difference for ROR and BR requirement calculations. https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

I dont need significant experience in one place to estimate win rates. I have significant overall experience and I played a plenty big enough sample at Commerce to be able to compare the action there and level of play there to other places.

A good player will win more at Commerce than most other rooms around the Country. There is no denying that and anyone who has traveled around and played 25-50 different rooms will agree. What the exact increase in win rate at Commerce (or any L.A.) game is, can be debated....but whatever a good players win rate is in their current room, it will be higher at Commerce. Of that I have no doubt at all.

I'm pretty sure I averaged around $125/hr at Commerce back in 2015/16 for over 1300 hours.

The games today have a lot more European pros. Your winrate is pretty much capped by how many decent players are at the table. I don't play much Commerce these days (the $5/10 there is too small for me) but you can bet your ass that no one is winning 10bb/hr at a table with 6 pros. The 3 losers would have to be losing something close to 30bb/hr for that to be true, and people just aren't close to being that bad now. Most of the time anyway. Occasionally you get someone that bad but it's not consistent.

Also, if someone wants to play 1500+ hours at the Commerce $5/10 in a year and bet that they can make $100/hr I'd snap take the under for a lot of money, although in practice it'd be impossible to verify as people can lie, etc...