Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorXP
Being 1200 hours into a BE stretch, I can tell u. It doesn't matter if you believe in the Boogie Man, he believes in u.
Are you trying to make a living off of poker?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Ah the naivety of youth
This is bad argument. Maybe you have little interest in this discussion which has probably come up many times already in the past, which is fine. However, I don't think it is fair to discredit someone without challenging their claim.
Of course it is possible for a professional to break even for a very long period of time, but there is a point where such a professional can no longer have an expectation of sufficient profitability in their market. I do not know exactly where this point is, but it comes before 18 months.
The possible length of a breakeven stretch can be modeled mathematically as a function of SD/winrate. We can start with the function that models our bankroll over time. u is winrate, sigma is standard deviation, t is time in hours and z is a constant.
Set B(t) = 0 and solve for t:
If we set SD/u = 10 and z = 5 standard deviations, we get t = 2500 hours, which is reasonable to accomplish in 18 months. This means that according to our model there is only about a 1/3.5 million chance of this occurring given the assumptions.
My point is not that it is impossible for this to happen, but that if it does happen to you need to seriously consider that you may not be capable of playing poker professionally in your market. Ask yourself what is more likely, that I ran worse than millions of other people or that my assumptions about my capabilities are way off?