This whole win rate discussion is useless. There are so many different styles of poker. Some come with incredible variance and some come with low variance. The super low variance style also comes with a low win rate because you are never pushing small edges, but you can win a high percentage of sessions if thats what you are trying to do. The high variance style may come with a higher win rate if you are good at it, but it will take you 10 times as many hours to know if you are really winning and its much harder to be good at this style. Somewhere in the middle is the proper merging of aggressiveness / variance and win rate, but there's no way of knowing exactly where that is especially when every table is different.

If you are constantly raising the flop all in with lots of draws and 4 betting all in preflop with AK, then your variance is going to be a hell of a lot higher than a set miner.

All you can do is play YOUR style perfectly and not tilt away money, not try to bluff calling stations, not fold too easily to maniacs and things like that and see what happens.

One last thing, if your win rate is high for an extended period of time, that doesnt mean its only because you are running hot. It may be because you are better than most other players and they cant accept that fact. There is no pokertracker for live play so nobody knows what anyone else is winning so dont act like you do. If someone posts that they are winning 15BB / hr and you are winning 7BB / hr they may actually be better than you and not just be on a heater.

I love this thread.

I wouldn't even want to play poker if I wasn't trying to maximize my hourly without regard for variance.

I seriously am trying to figger out what you are saying here...the tripple negative is causing me some issues - can I get a translator to "dumb this down" for me

He luvs him sum variance.

I believe:

I would only want to play poker with the goal of maximizing my hourly. I understand that playing in such a manner may require more variance than other playing styles.

or (my standyby favorite)

lol typing monday when it's tuesday.

Pretty sure 9 posts is too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions about the quality of the content ... right?

Not necessarily...I knew my poasting was **** after #2 or #3.

If you're a winner in this game, you are in a very rare minority. Don't undervalue that / take that for granted.

GgoodluckG

Lol. Even if you play absolutely perfectly (whatever than means), whether you win/lose a single 8 hour session is mostly up to chance.

The thing that will separate you from everyone else at the table (and hopefully make you a long term winner) is that in those sessions where everything goes horribly wrong that you lose less than your opponents would in the same spot.

GcluelessvariancenoobG

Hi. I've been reading through some of this thread and I wanted some advice on moving up limits. I currently play 2/3 and have a massive hourly. I'm at $45.89/hour over 150 hours at a game that charges $5/hour and has rake 10% capped at $10.

I know this is a really small sample size and this hourly is probably not sustainable but how much longer should I play before trying some 2/5?

I don't think I'm good at poker (although I think I am probably one of the better players in my 2/3 pool) and I have sessions where I tilt off a few buy ins. Should I just wait a few more hundred hours to see where variance takes me? I'm a little scared of moving up even though the skill difference can't be that big.

Just take a shot. I didn't know how to wipe my own ass at one point, but then I just tried and it wasn't so bad.

Yeah, I kinda used poor wording.

It would depress me to sacrifice winrate to lower my variance.

If the $2/5 game looks better than the $2/3 game, take a shot at $2/5. If you recognize bad players, see a lot of chips and booze, or other indicators the table is good, play.

That's not what the quote said. It says stop win.

QFT. Some of my best wins have come from higher stakes throwing away "chump change" while they wait for their table to open up.

FYP

yes

Thanks man.

as gg said, you're a winner in the game. That's a great place to start. You can probably still improve a ton in your game and that's something you should seek to identify and then work on.

I think the specific words typed onto the screen have a lot more meaning than how many times a person has typed words onto said screen. You may think differently but I know lots of people who never STFU and still never say anything worth while. You can include most politicians in that list.

Depends what you want. If you want to be better at poker, improve at poker. If you don't want to live under a bridge, play more hours.

You're not making less, the ratio of (dollars)/(volatility unit) decreases.

The decision is always between call and fold and raise is never considered. The guy last week who check/tank-called the 2nd nf to a river $40 bet didn't check to induce, he's a box.

Good for you, you're allowed to have this perspective. I didn't say everyone needs to see it this way or that no one's allowed to see it this way. I'm just explaining some consequences of it.

You've explained nothing.

Lol