Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
SABR, any thoughts on taking a lower variance approach to the game, which may technically be -EV $$$-wise (maybe) but likely be a far more +EV mentally and help you accomplish the long term in a much better frame of mind?
The biggest EV lowstakes giraffe I've seen posted in the Winrates thread is Sol's. It is also the highest variance giraffe I've seen in that thread and the swings were mindblowing. Pretty sure no normal human could go thru those swings without experiencing extremely difficult mental health issues (not to mention that I doubt anyone is playing nearly as well as they think they are during these wild rides).
The Koss thread is a good example of this, imo. You really can just fold preflop. Will it lessen your overall EV? Ok, sure, whatever I guess. But at what expense are you trying to ring out an extra 0.1 bb/hr? Is there a happier medium?
I'm just a lowly 1/3 NL rec with a lol mediocre winrate who'll never come close to whatever winrate you've managed to accomplish at real stakes professionally. But I last booked a 200bb+ loss in my game 107 sessions ago, in September of 2017 (which actually turned out to be a 300bb+ loss, lol), which does *wonders* to your poker-related mental health.
Gjustmytwoworthlesscents;goodluckG
I know you mean well and are trying to help, so I'll respectfully explain why your reasoning wouldn't work with me.
I play in a $10/20 game with 5+ pros most of the time. None of these guys are awful (you'd probably consider all of them very tough) but most of them have some leaks. Some are a bit more trappy than others, but worse at hand-reading. Some are tighter pre-flop but overplay and spew in some spots. Some are overall a bit more loose and spewy but those guys usually actually never bluff in some spots because they know their image. Some are usually pretty solid but play worse when stuck. A few are quite good and I don't really have much of an edge, if any, against them. This is to be expected at these stakes, if someone was really bad at poker they couldn't be a pro.
But fish, recs, and some bad regs (who can't be winning) still play in my games, and the bulk of my theoretical winrate will come from those guys. Of course I'll still play big pots vs the other regs, but those are theoretically close to neutral EV and whoever is running good will win more of those (not me). I don't see that A8s as a "close" spot at all actually. If you don't go after the maniacs and the fish, who do you go after?
It's not just about that one spot in isolation, but if you are choosing to pass up that spot, you are probably choosing to pass up 20 other spots during the course of a session. And this is not limited to pre-flop. Furthermore, while you wait for that perfect scenario (being in position, having premium hands and easy decisions all the way), that fish might not even be there anymore because he's already lost his money to the other pros. Part of being better at the game is recognizing good spots, but it is no use simply thinking "okay this is good spot but I can wait for a better spot" because in a tough game if you do that, and repeatedly do that, you are going to have no winrate at all.