DC, you catching that falling knife with aapl?

I only had 2 stocks I was interested in for 2019, but just might have to add a third.

Live look at me handling this market:

Awesome use of gifage

No. Previously I said I was going to hang onto it but then the next trading day it ended up going up a decent amount and I sold. I think that was a mistake but in retrospect it worked out. I nibbled on AAPL today but then ended up selling it for a small profit. I don't think that was a mistake. I don't believe there should be any rush to get into this stock. I will write more on this shortly....

Greatly depends on who I’m interfacing with. I am known for my brevity. The only exception is when I’m running elbows or knocking boots. If I’m dealing with someone who can’t keep it quick then I prefer email.

AAPL just cut revenue forecasts by 8%. This is a really big deal. Since Tim Cook has been CEO (25+ quarters) AAPL has never missed on revenue. This is a bad sign for AAPL but also shows greater weakness in China and on a macro level in general.

AAPL is a good value play (if #s aren't revised down further) but it's been a good value play for a long time. However, stock prices across the board have come down and on a relative basis to how it has performed the last 5 years vs the stock market, AAPL is still trading at avg levels on an earnings basis and at above avg levels on a cash flow basis. Because of that, the valuation isn't really that compelling here. I don't really see much upside potential in the near term. Next year's iPhone cycle will not be compelling. Plus #s may need to be revised down further. There's unlikely to be any big acquisition, as AAPL has been lagging other major tech companies in money spent on both acquisitions and R&D. AAPL will end this quarter with like $130 billion in net cash. AAPL is trying to move to cash neutral and much of that money will be spent on buying back shares. The one big thing AAPL has going for it is that AAPL's buybacks and Berkshire's purchases could account for around 10% of all AAPL shares purchased in the near term.

I'm more concerned about the macro picture though. The 10 year bull market was largely built on quantitative easing and synchronized global growth. Both are now coming to an end. Over 40% of the S&P 500s revenues come from overseas and 60% of revenues for tech companies come from outside the US. China has been slowing down throughout 2018. Europe is highly dependent on China and Europe has been slowing down as well. I can't see how this can not affect US companies.

So yeah, you could purchase AAPL here and it's a good value but given that I don't see much upside in the stock in the near term why not wait to see what happens with some of the macro picture. AAPL wasn't the only bad news today. There was also bad data in the ISM manufacturing index today which had its worst monthly drop since 2008. This is a warning signal for a potential recession. Also, Delta just signaled weaker revenue growth today which is bringing down all the airlines today. I'd rather wait and see what happens in earnings season to see if there is a continued trend of worsening economic conditions.

...and I wrote all that and didn't even mention the trade war.

that is a solid poast

i can tell from the vocab and from seeing quite a few solid poasts in my time

Yeah I should have run for the hills into cash positions about 6 months ago. Time to enjoy the ride I guess.


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Bro I just want my horoscope read dont come at me with facts.

I mentioned it before, but I went 100% cash in december. (Something I have never done before).

What does it mean to be 100% cash? Because what I hear is this means you're completely liquid and just have cash sitting somewhere.

But where do you safely keep $473?

Pretty insightful read.

Not seeing a recession in the data yet but one in 2020 seems possible. A continued trade war or escalation of it and that moves to probable and I could even see it in late 2019. The ISM number is still in (slower) growth mode and the drop likely reflects slowing orders after a ramp up in preparation for possible tariffs.

One bright spot not in the data is that China began a fiscal stimulus in mid-2018 that has not worked its way into the system yet. *IF* we get positive effects from it and the tariff silliness is resolved, we could avoid a recession in the short term.

Generally it means holding no equities and a mix of treasuries/bonds/cash accounts.

I had the majority of my savings (90%ish) in stocks. Not talking about 401k, I have no idea whats in there and dont care.

Most of my portfolio was indexed, but a chunk was in aapl, and another chunk was in various other plays like verizon, jpm, etc. (play=torch).

When I saw the federal reserve was not backing down from their interest rate stance, I bailed. Meaning yes, it is now all cash, all liquid. A large chunk will be stair stepped into CDs this year. (Put into different maturities at different times)

Everything comes down to interest rates. Not trade wars. Not CDOs. Not dot.com bubbles. These are just noise to distract us ignorant masses. Or, a less tin foil hat answer, these are symptoms of the underlying disease.

It all starts with the cost of borrowing. And the cancer is growing.

A lot of the brokers will automatically put the cash you have with them into a money market account, which right now returns over 2% so if you don't do anything else with that money at least you are getting a return and it's way better than what you get on a typical savings account.

Yes, and no...but your viewpoint is too short-sighted.

Even with the Fed increasing rates we are well below the historical average and will remain there even with the expected increases. You will also find periods of sustained economic growth with much higher rates than we have now.

I do agree there will be some pain as we move into a more normalized rate environment over time, but basing an investment solely on interest rates is flawed.

FWIW historically interest rates are closely tied to inflation. Low inflation = lower rates and vice versa.

Any recs on a place to play some hold thems near Orlando?

Skip, its just my opinion. But its one of the strongest ones I have outside of herring being the best bait for tarpon or that redheads are the best lay.

Xpost from my hot take in skuzlad pgc

The issue becomes understanding interest rates in relative terms to the current economy. Under your premise you will likely be out of equities most of your lifetime as we will rarely be at the rates we were a couple of years ago.

You may also want to study Japan and their interest rates throughout the 90s into the 2000s.

Rates are part of the puzzle but there numerous other pieces.

Tampa Hard Rock & Orange City Racing & Card Club are your two best bets

Not rates at their absolute, rates relative to their cycle.

Can we just grab a beer though and talk about how great redheads are?

I told my wife after the dinner some of the stuff you've talked about it in here (not before, my wife is a super awkward liar).

She said Mrs Ava almost has red hair, close enough.

Also, hey Foldy.

& I don't know how you people have time to watch new movies, let alone rewatch old ones.