Quote:
Originally Posted by axiomtek
You'd 3bet here? I don't think this is a good play
1. You have a 60bb stack in the pot, which will create really akward SPRs if he FLATS you (this is 3/5 ive seen short player calls 3bets and c/f flops lol)
2. You 3bet size will need to be bigger since it's muliway (like 14-16bbs)
3. Why? for value? as a bluff? Are we stacking off on all K/Q high flops? Are we folding to a shove from 60bb?
He's opened to 15, meaning we can weight super strong hands a bit weaker, its a very multiway pot.
Folding is better than calling, and if we were in MP I probably would find it close either way between folding and 3-betting. OTB, once no one has 3-bet already, we can be fairly certain KQ isn't crushed, and we can fold out a lot of suited garbage and implied odds kind of hands by 3-betting.
It's pretty much a free $65 now 90% of the time since noone but the PFR is ever calling our 3-bet (and if someone else DOES, we know what their range is, and can expect a high c-bet% to take it down), or calling to see a flop with a hand that does not flop or play well multi way.
Who gives a **** if KQ has some equity. We're not
entirely bluffing, but we certainly aren't doing this for value either. We're doing this to capitalize dead money, and win a pot where our hand equity is probably like 20%, 90%+ of the time.
If called, generally our TP's will still be more than good.
Generally he will 4-bet us with AK, KK+ (if its possible for him to have them after opening so small - very unlikely), so the hands that have us super crushed we get away from immediately rather than blindly calling down 3 streets to see TPGK no good.
He will fold hands like suited garbage, KJ etc most of the time, and this is no big deal, sure we're ahead, but our gain from taking the pot now is actually larger than our EV in seeing the flop multiway.
When he
calls, what can he have? AQ is probably all that dominates us (again, its doubtful he opens it to 15). Some small-mid pairs that we can barrel off and sometimes value town with TP. Some suited broadways etc which will c/f fold every flop and be RIO vs us when they flop TP.
Thats vs the PFR, vs the others their ranges are all capped at like AJ in terms of hand strength, so we have very little to fear no matter what they decide to do, and again can just bludgeon them with position.
Last edited by papagavin; 03-09-2011 at 09:52 PM.