Folks always assume variance to be equally positive and negative. This may not actually be the case.

It is the case obviously when you get your stack in AIPF with an x%/y% spot.

But seeing a flop multi way with an x%/y%/z% spot with considerable SPR possibly puts you in a spot where the variance may have a negative skewness.

Continuing my not so humble brags, I bumped into my CEO in the virtual world today.

I was walking to a building and saw him coming my way and thought "wtf this guy uses the virtual world??"

He stopped me and said hello and chatted me up for 5 minutes and asked me how I liked working here so far.

I've never even been in the same building as my ceo, let alone gotten to talk to one.

THIS HAS TO BE A DREAM

SABR, any thoughts on taking a lower variance approach to the game, which may technically be -EV $$$-wise (maybe) but likely be a far more +EV mentally and help you accomplish the long term in a much better frame of mind?

The biggest EV lowstakes giraffe I've seen posted in the Winrates thread is Sol's. It is also the highest variance giraffe I've seen in that thread and the swings were mindblowing. Pretty sure no normal human could go thru those swings without experiencing extremely difficult mental health issues (not to mention that I doubt anyone is playing nearly as well as they think they are during these wild rides).

The Koss thread is a good example of this, imo. You really can just fold preflop. Will it lessen your overall EV? Ok, sure, whatever I guess. But at what expense are you trying to ring out an extra 0.1 bb/hr? Is there a happier medium?

I'm just a lowly 1/3 NL rec with a lol mediocre winrate who'll never come close to whatever winrate you've managed to accomplish at real stakes professionally. But I last booked a 200bb+ loss in my game 107 sessions ago, in September of 2017 (which actually turned out to be a 300bb+ loss, lol), which does *wonders* to your poker-related mental health.

Gjustmytwoworthlesscents;goodluckG

GG... there is a singular difference in how you approach the game, vs. Sabr.

You are not trying to be the best player in the room. Full-stop.

If your goal is to be The Best (capital-T, capital-B), then you are necessarily going to have to do battle in every spot, vs. all villains. You cannot, by definition, choose your spots.

Yeah, definitely the case on my end and I'll let SABR decide if that's true on his end.

All's I'm saying is that if that ain't working out too well (mostly regarding the long term mental health, as I'm assuming it's working out ok $$$-wise in spite of the recent streak which I'm assuming is just a normal drawback to playing his style) then perhaps letting go of the idea of being The Best and finding a more happy medium is worth a look.

Gornot,whatdoIknowG

Perhaps you should read the whole thread and see that nearly everyone who disagrees with me can't back up their reasoning yet are fully "confident" that they're right and I'm wrong, and you'd understand my "arrogance."

Perfect meme usage lol

Yeah, I read the whole thread. You'll notice I didn't say you were wrong.

Sigh...

Welp... If getting out of the kiddie pool of low stakes meaning turning up the mental pressure to the point where you're complaining ITT about calling it a day because you're running QQ into KK, then yeah, I'm 100% with GG on this one -- you can have it, and I'll stay in the kiddie pool thanks.

I wish you the best. Try to take some of the pressure off your head.

I know you mean well and are trying to help, so I'll respectfully explain why your reasoning wouldn't work with me.

I play in a $10/20 game with 5+ pros most of the time. None of these guys are awful (you'd probably consider all of them very tough) but most of them have some leaks. Some are a bit more trappy than others, but worse at hand-reading. Some are tighter pre-flop but overplay and spew in some spots. Some are overall a bit more loose and spewy but those guys usually actually never bluff in some spots because they know their image. Some are usually pretty solid but play worse when stuck. A few are quite good and I don't really have much of an edge, if any, against them. This is to be expected at these stakes, if someone was really bad at poker they couldn't be a pro.

But fish, recs, and some bad regs (who can't be winning) still play in my games, and the bulk of my theoretical winrate will come from those guys. Of course I'll still play big pots vs the other regs, but those are theoretically close to neutral EV and whoever is running good will win more of those (not me). I don't see that A8s as a "close" spot at all actually. If you don't go after the maniacs and the fish, who do you go after? It's not just about that one spot in isolation, but if you are choosing to pass up that spot, you are probably choosing to pass up 20 other spots during the course of a session. And this is not limited to pre-flop. Furthermore, while you wait for that perfect scenario (being in position, having premium hands and easy decisions all the way), that fish might not even be there anymore because he's already lost his money to the other pros. Part of being better at the game is recognizing good spots, but it is no use simply thinking "okay this is good spot but I can wait for a better spot" because in a tough game if you do that, and repeatedly do that, you are going to have no winrate at all.

You will get completely eaten alive trying to play a "lower variance" game at 5/10+. You would essentially just be sitting around waiting to cooler someone and at 5/10+ at least half the table is going to be winning pros ime

Correct.

Disagree. Only major market I havent played in is cali but they are quite literally giving it away at 5/10 and I only somewhat have to start thinking (meaning, playing about $50NLish as a comparison) at 10/25.

The A8 spot also does not = 20 other similar spots a session. That is ridiculous. A6-9 oop are the most difficult hands to play in 3b pots. Avoiding them is fine. Effect on ev is moot.

All of this .0001bb strat aside, lapi is absolutely correct about your mental game sabr. This is not an attack, but I am actually shocked that someone that has survived 10 years into live poker can have the ego you have. Most (all?) long term solid grinders i have met have squid's personality. Contrary to what it wants you to think, ego does not belong in poker.

Really?

Is this just hyperbole or is it possible that in reality half (or more) of the players at 5/10 and up are "winning"?

Seems really, REALLY, unlikely.

I can't believe this thread is free

MCGA

I said in my experience. And I count people who break even/slight losers (who are rocks you can’t get money out of) as winning since they’re technically beating the rake. In Vegas, at 2/5 I would say there’s 2-3 winning regs on avg per table and that goes up to 4-5 at 5/10.

It's true.

Not more than half of the player POOL are winning players, but it's not unusual for an actual table at any given time to contain 5 or more players who are winning players overall, because winning players tend to play more hours.

Compared to low stakes, the losing players at high stakes lose much faster (because there are more competent players to exploit all of their mistakes), and winrates between pros run much closer. This is why I'm essentially calling BS on anyone claiming to win at 10bb/hr at $5/10 and higher. Sure they might do it over a year or even two (because you can definitely run bad for that long as well), but it's not their EV. There just isn't that much dead money to go around.

Oh go file a tax return

In my limited 5T experience (mainly playing it when it looks reeeeeally good) it's still 5-6 slight-to-big winners, me, and 1-2 spots.

Lapi, when you've played 5T what's the lineup been like?

Make Communism Great Again?

My Colonoscopy Got Aggressive?

DCFT, while I can get behind randals clarified definition...I’d always remind everyone that what appear to be pros are in fact not pros. They are kids on heaters.

But yes I can get behind 1-2 strong winners and an additional 1-2 rocks/breakeven players per table.

Who said anything about a 10bb winrate? I’ve been challenging that nonsense since 2013 when I had one myself.

no room 4 ego in poker.

I have played winning 5/T on line back in the ub days
I have played winning T/25 live back in the glory years
I have played winning 5/T post black friday
I like being able to sleep at night. I like not sweating that I "run worse than all of humanity combined"
SPC gave me sht 4 not playin 5/T in florida. Maybe shes right? But when I played I seldom had losing months and have never had to worry about $ or my mental health

PS still miss poker exactly zero on a scale of 1-10

Today I took a little old lady flying who was about 150 years old who told me it was the most beautiful thing she ever did

I also took a chick who was lucky to b alive who told me it was a religious experience

I kind of like that feedback loop personally

Hit it?

GGGILF?