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Old Today, 01:55 AM   #1
Ranma4703
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[2/5] Calling large turn bet on paired board vs aggressive player with history

I have history with villain - we were playing four handed for a bit and we played this hand:
I'm UTG and open AJo to $15, and villain OTB makes it $50. Timing wise and posture, really seemed he was 3betting me light so I go $125, he calls. Flop J99 with two hearts, I downbet $80, he calls. Turn 4heart, I check, he bets $185, I call with $300 behind. River 6o, I check, he checks back and shows ATs, no hearts, MHIG.

We get moved to the main game and villain joins us for this hand.

TAG opens UTG to $20, villain from our previous hand flats, I overcall AJ on the button, and one of the blinds calls.

Flop: 33T ($80)
Checks to villain who bets $60, we call, everyone else folds.
Turn: 2 ($200)
He bets $170 with $600 more behind. Against a lot of people I would consider folding here, but not him so I call.
River: A ($540)
He checks, I bet $175..

Mostly interested in turn decision, preflop and flop seem pretty standard
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Old Today, 02:22 AM   #2
SpinzFTW
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Re: [2/5] Calling large turn bet on paired board vs aggressive player with history

Easy fold on turn. V has a T or some mid pp. Size of turn bet is too big for you to raise without going all in and I don't like that. If you thought v was making a move you should have raised flop while your hand still had good equity. On turn you must fold.
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Old Today, 03:11 AM   #3
Ranma4703
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Re: [2/5] Calling large turn bet on paired board vs aggressive player with history

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinzFTW View Post
Easy fold on turn. V has a T or some mid pp. Size of turn bet is too big for you to raise without going all in and I don't like that. If you thought v was making a move you should have raised flop while your hand still had good equity. On turn you must fold.
If villain has that range we have ~31% equity, in position, with plenty to play. If we give him something like AxTx,KxTx,QxTx,JxTx,9xTx,99,88,77,KsQs,9s8s,7s8s,7 s9s,4s5s,5s6s we have 40% equity.
So 'must fold' seems very strong, and also means we never have flushes OTR
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