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***Official "It Lives, It Lives" Chat Thread*** ***Official "It Lives, It Lives" Chat Thread***

04-02-2011 , 11:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigSkip
Chopped it. Nice to get part of the high hand without actually hitting the high hand.
You guys play in an illegal underground game, yall not scared of getting robbed
04-03-2011 , 12:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Percula
Something to think about in regards to stats in live pokers...

It is likely impossible for a full time live player to ever reach the levels of confidence that OL players can achieve. There is an element here that is hard and fast, the smallest sample to have a high level of confidence in the stats.

There is another precept that I think applies to live poker and stats, occam's razor. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor

So can we have a high level of confidence in our small sample sizes, no. Do we have to have a high level of confidence in our stats to gain useful information from them, no.

The best example is the question "Am I a winning 1/2 NL player?". So to answer this question with a high level of confidence, you would need a sample size so large that it becomes flat out silly. In other words, by the time you have played a large enough sample size to have that high level of confidence, if you are a winning player, you will have long before reaching that sample size, know you are a winning players because of the increasing total profit from your play or if you are losing player you will be bleeding so much money a blind man could see you are not a winning player.

It would also be very sad to see someone that is a winning player, stay at a level lower than they can continue to be a winning player at simply to gain a high(er) level of confidence in their stats.

So when you start looking at things like this, you really have to use some common sense in your evaluations. That doesn't mean primarily using things that are not hard facts, but using some basic logic. E.g. If you have been playing 1/2NL for 1 year and you started with a 10 BI BR, and now a year later you have a 40 BI BR, you are likely a winning player, while recognizing that you also might just be on a hot streak, and by looking closer at your play you can have a reasonable idea if you just ran hot for the last year or are a winning player.
+1. thank you. people think in such weird ways about the whole sample size thing. i've tried explaining something similar to this post before:

Quote:
Originally Posted by 8o8
[...] i still think winrate is a useful number over large sample sizes.

if i have a $25 hourly at 1/2 NL over 2000 hours:

does it mean my true expected hourly is $25? no

does it mean i'm not a losing player at this 1/2 NL game? probably

the more specific our conclusion, the more uncertainty we have to associate with that number. we don't need to be 100% sure of our winrate. we just want some idea of how profitable the game we are playing is for us. games change, our play changes, and we just take that into account when we look at the numbers.

the problem with winrate is people seem to think in binary about statistics in poker. we either have a big enough sample size or we don't. we either have a 25 hourly or we don't. but in reality, these things are a sliding scale. the more hands we play, the better our information about the profitability of that game. you look at your winrate and you look at the sample size for it, and based on that determine how much uncertainty to associate with the winrate figure. and then draw you conclusions from that.

so i think considering winrate is very useful. you just have to think about it properly.
04-03-2011 , 06:30 AM
so ive been running/playing bad for a few sessions. nothing too crazy. i take a break just to stop it from turning into something bigger. i clear my mind, take a deep breath, and re read ILCDs posts and go play.

3/5 not running, ugh, 2/2 time. i start good, being aggro in right spots, i play one good hand where i had a guy fold QQ on K hi board, i had 3rd pair when i shoved over his lead bet. rest std stuff.

then i run into guy who likes to limp KK ep and c/c on 10 hi flop with KK for 25BBs, then i run into 3 sets all for 25-40BBs where i had TP or better. then to lose almost the rest, end up getting last 50 or so in PF with AKss lose to 24o, 4 way pot, he rivers a str8.

but i win sidepot WOOHOO, well i lose A9<K10. i shove on J hi flop guy calls, hits 10 on river.

OK i get it, bought a new videogame Demons SOul and knocked some more things off the honey to do list. gonna take a break ti easter weekend in vegas.

cliffs- im regressing and or everyone is getting a lot better and after 4-5 years of taking this seriously maybe i should stop.
04-03-2011 , 06:32 AM
sounds like you're just running into a lot of big hands.

so jealous that you got demon souls. I really want to play it.
04-03-2011 , 06:37 AM
I hate being a winning reg, why this cat ask me for money today, I see the guy every weekend he is a recreational player, I've always heard to never give money out, I felt bad saying no when he is looking at my huge chip stack, so I gave him $20 lmao, I know ill never see that $20 lol. Can't believe he ask for a 100 out of my stack, I gave him $20 out of my pocket hhahaha I felt wierd.
04-03-2011 , 06:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer
sounds like you're just running into a lot of big hands.

so jealous that you got demon souls. I really want to play it.
holy sht demons soul is fun. u cant play it? if u want after im done ill send it to you since games just collect dust after i finish them once. you then could PASS IT FOWARD and we coud start a beautiful chain of good deeds and goodwill.

sidenote- i cant seem to overcome my tilt issues. i get one fixed another pops up and i dont have the energy like before to keep plugging them.

but i like talking about it strategy outside the tables like here, its fun.
04-03-2011 , 06:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks
I hate being a winning reg, why this cat ask me for money today, I see the guy every weekend he is a recreational player, I've always heard to never give money out, I felt bad saying no when he is looking at my huge chip stack, so I gave him $20 lmao, I know ill never see that $20 lol. Can't believe he ask for a 100 out of my stack, I gave him $20 out of my pocket hhahaha I felt wierd.
i once lent a dealer 100 after busting him for about 3-400. i felt like i just lit it on fire, he paid me back next time i saw him.
04-03-2011 , 06:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MK7749
so ive been running/playing bad for a few sessions. nothing too crazy. i take a break just to stop it from turning into something bigger. i clear my mind, take a deep breath, and re read ILCDs posts and go play.

3/5 not running, ugh, 2/2 time. i start good, being aggro in right spots, i play one good hand where i had a guy fold QQ on K hi board, i had 3rd pair when i shoved over his lead bet. rest std stuff.

then i run into guy who likes to limp KK ep and c/c on 10 hi flop with KK for 25BBs, then i run into 3 sets all for 25-40BBs where i had TP or better. then to lose almost the rest, end up getting last 50 or so in PF with AKss lose to 24o, 4 way pot, he rivers a str8.

but i win sidepot WOOHOO, well i lose A9<K10. i shove on J hi flop guy calls, hits 10 on river.

OK i get it, bought a new videogame Demons SOul and knocked some more things off the honey to do list. gonna take a break ti easter weekend in vegas.

cliffs- im regressing and or everyone is getting a lot better and after 4-5 years of taking this seriously maybe i should stop.
Sounds like your pressing the issue with meh hands.

First thing you should do is play every buyin like its your last. That just mean play good poker, stop chasing and stop playing dominated hands like A9. Today I ask myself, can I really played boring poker. No bluffing, wait to put money in ahead.

So today, I threw away all trash hands, and trust me it was a lot of them. Everyone knows I love K5s or 76s or 109s I took them out of the playbook today.

Untill I get to where I want to be, I'm not playing any trash and going to treat every buyin like its my last, instead of having the figure of my bankroll in my head.

You can't keep running bad. Someday's you just have to tighten up. Instead of the "oh well Fudge it" attitude.

Good luck next time, don't quit just get it together all the tools are there to improve.
04-03-2011 , 12:37 PM
std run bad MK7749. play your A game and think about the long term. you'll do fine.
04-03-2011 , 02:35 PM
I don't have a PS3, although I almost bought one just for Demon Souls. It looks soooooooooooooo good. My brother has a PS3 and I wanted to buy it when I was staying at his house for a week during this trip back to the states, but I asked the video games forum here and everyone said that in a week I'd only get to level 3.


Anyone here good with taxes?
04-03-2011 , 03:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer
I don't have a PS3, although I almost bought one just for Demon Souls. It looks soooooooooooooo good. My brother has a PS3 and I wanted to buy it when I was staying at his house for a week during this trip back to the states, but I asked the video games forum here and everyone said that in a week I'd only get to level 3.


Anyone here good with taxes?
I can answer *some* tax questions - no longer do it professionally so I may be out of date on a few things.

BTW, I have a PS3. Dang thing just quit playing video games/blue rays for some reason. Now I have a very expensive dvd player.
04-03-2011 , 05:59 PM
You should be able to send it back to Sony to fix it for free. If not try a gaming shop.

So I'm filing as a professional poker player, which means I'm self employed. However, I am out of the country for more than 330 days in the year, so all my taxes are covered in the tax exemption which covers up to 91k. Do I still have to play self employment tax of 15% though?
04-03-2011 , 08:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MK7749
so ive been running/playing bad for a few sessions.

<snip>end up getting last 50 or so in PF with AKss lose to 24o, 4 way pot, he rivers a str8.

but i win sidepot WOOHOO, well i lose A9<K10. i shove on J hi flop guy calls, hits 10 on river.
Why are you playing down to the felt? You are having a **** night, pickup what you have left and leave. Seriously doing that instead of the classic "playing for my last chip" mindset will do wonders for your mental state.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MK7749
i once lent a dealer 100 after busting him for about 3-400. i felt like i just lit it on fire, he paid me back next time i saw him.
Lol, you found the one most likely to get paid back person in a casino. Staff especially dealers and floor, since they are going to see you again and again, and in many states can get into trouble with gaming or with their employer, they are almost always paying you back. I have never lost money loaning to a dealer or floor.

But anything I would give to anyone else, like another player, I am never loaning it, I am giving it to them, because I have no expectation what so ever to see that money repaid. But it can be fun "loaning" some degen money then mess with them... Had one guy I "loaned" $20 to actually turn and run from the poker room when he seen me after being a month late paying me back. LMAO. And I never said a word to him or anyone else about him, he just seen me and panicked and ran.
04-03-2011 , 08:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Percula
Why are you playing down to the felt? You are having a **** night, pickup what you have left and leave. Seriously doing that instead of the classic "playing for my last chip" mindset will do wonders for your mental state.



Lol, you found the one most likely to get paid back person in a casino. Staff especially dealers and floor, since they are going to see you again and again, and in many states can get into trouble with gaming or with their employer, they are almost always paying you back. I have never lost money loaning to a dealer or floor.

But anything I would give to anyone else, like another player, I am never loaning it, I am giving it to them, because I have no expectation what so ever to see that money repaid. But it can be fun "loaning" some degen money then mess with them... Had one guy I "loaned" $20 to actually turn and run from the poker room when he seen me after being a month late paying me back. LMAO. And I never said a word to him or anyone else about him, he just seen me and panicked and ran.
#Lmao that is what I was thinking too. I basically gave him 20 if he is gonna give back to me oh well. But I'm not going to hunt someone down or even ask.


Lol at the guy running when he seen you.
04-03-2011 , 09:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks
#Lmao that is what I was thinking too. I basically gave him 20 if he is gonna give back to me oh well. But I'm not going to hunt someone down or even ask.


Lol at the guy running when he seen you.
Anyone ever see A Bronx Tale? Percula's story reminds me of a funny part in that movie.
04-03-2011 , 09:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks
#Lmao that is what I was thinking too. I basically gave him 20 if he is gonna give back to me oh well. But I'm not going to hunt someone down or even ask.


Lol at the guy running when he seen you.
On the sad side... I make an unplanned stop at Fort McDowell (PHX area B&M), so I have to use the ATM to get something to play with. I am standing in line and there is this retied guy, mid 70's, dressed nice, and he is going thru CC after CC, each being rejected in turn. He went thru 10+ gold/platinum cards.

His whole body just slumped when the last card was rejected and he turned to me with the most horrible look of utter embarrassment and asked for $20 so he could get a taxi home...

I am may apprear as a hard hearted SOB, but I am not turning this guy down, but I also know he is a slots addict too. I figure there is less than a 50/50 chance he makes it to the valet for a cab ride home if I hand him cash. So I agree but with one condition, that I walk him to the valet and pay the cab driver myself. He agrees and we make our way there and a cab is hailed...

He gives the driver the address and I ask "how much" and get a $18 quote , so I give the driver $25 and tell him to take care of the old boy, turn around and go back inside and hit the head.

As I am walking back the poker room from the head, there is the old boy sitting on a end seat at a bank of slots, looking as happy as a clam, I look over his shoulder and he has ~$20 in the machine, I clear my throat... I didn't say anything, I didn't do anything, the look in the old boys eye's getting caught was plenty of "punishment", I didn't need to say or do anything more than he had already done to himself.
04-03-2011 , 10:09 PM
"Needle And The Damage Done"

I caught you knockin'
at my cellar door
I love you, baby,
can I have some more
Ooh, ooh, the damage done.

I hit the city and
I lost my band
I watched the needle
take another man
Gone, gone, the damage done.

I sing the song
because I love the man
I know that some
of you don't understand
Milk-blood
to keep from running out.

I've seen the needle
and the damage done
A little part of it in everyone
But every junkie's
like a settin' sun.

-Neil Young

The only difference is that all of us on this forum understand.
04-03-2011 , 10:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattyspin
Anyone ever see A Bronx Tale? Percula's story reminds me of a funny part in that movie.
First thing I thought of.
04-03-2011 , 11:52 PM
Sick story Perc. WTF was with the cabbie?

I always get a Bronx Tale confused with [Goodfellas.
04-04-2011 , 01:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeadMoneyWalking
Sick story Perc. WTF was with the cabbie?

I always get a Bronx Tale confused with Goodfellas.
The valet guy told me the old boy asked for the $20 bill and for the driver to keep the $5 "for his trouble" like pulling out of parking spot and driving like 200 feet is trouble. I guess a $5'er just doesn't buy you as much as it used to.
04-04-2011 , 05:44 AM
Lately I been isoing the fish oop with very strong hands.

I know you guys are like how do you iso fish oop. Well its easy, after you have scoped out the calling stations.

You wait for strong hands and raise big here is an example.

Hero is dealt Q Q and raises to $30 UTG, standard raise has been $15 since I sat down.

Internet Uber fish calls, the way he plays is like a tournament. If he catches any pair he calling. He has a short stack $200

20/40 limit player calls on the button, his range is AK or AQ and JJ+ he has around $600, Hero has $400

Flop 10 8 3

Perfect flop hero bets $65,internet uber fish pushes all in, 20/40 player moans and grunts, he folds, I insta call putting villain on A10

Turn K

River 7

Villain shows J10o

20/40 players goes crazy, asian dude say"your an idiot you call with J10o and he raises 30 you know he has a big pair, then you push with a 10 with a J kicker, I had to fold AK"

I was laughing hard, I said "I played the hand perfect then"
04-04-2011 , 05:51 AM
Yes, well played. It was a tricky hand. Do you coach?
04-04-2011 , 06:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by quesuerte
Yes, well played. It was a tricky hand. Do you coach?
Sorry my example was meh at best. Thanks for the level.
04-04-2011 , 11:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Percula
As I am walking back the poker room from the head, there is the old boy sitting on a end seat at a bank of slots, looking as happy as a clam,
Wow, this story plus the other one with the heater guy running up his BR to 450K then going busto; these degen/gambloor stories are all kinda sad. I'm glad poker is nothing but a hobby (one of many) in my life.

GalthoughIdospendfartoomuchtimeon2+2atwork,Ishould probablyworkonthatG
04-04-2011 , 11:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
"Needle And The Damage Done"

I caught you knockin'
at my cellar door
I love you, baby,
can I have some more
Ooh, ooh, the damage done.

I hit the city and
I lost my band
I watched the needle
take another man
Gone, gone, the damage done.

I sing the song
because I love the man
I know that some
of you don't understand
Milk-blood
to keep from running out.

I've seen the needle
and the damage done
A little part of it in everyone
But every junkie's
like a settin' sun.

-Neil Young

The only difference is that all of us on this forum understand.
In the coincidence category...

So last night I'm switching channels and stumble across some thingy where various artists are butchering lottsa classic Neil Young songs (such as Josh Groban grobanizing Harvest Moon). Anyhoo, it inspires me to take out my Neil Young songbook (which I haven't done in ages) and I go directly to this song above, cuz it's got such a cool guitar lick and even a really bad guitar player like me can kinda make it sound almost listenable.

GplayingguitarinmymanroomG

      
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