1/2 NLH, 9 players

General read:
Lots of pre-flop limping. Pre-flop raises are typically called in 2-3 places at minimum.

Preflop:
2 EP players limp.
Hero in LP raises to $10 with AA
SB calls.
BB calls.
Both EP calls.

Flop ($50)
866

2 EP players check.
Hero bets $40 leaving ~$150 behind.
SB & BB fold.
1st EP checkraises to $80 with ~$40 behind.
2nd EP folds.

Pot = $170

Action?

reads on 1st EP?

What do we know about EP? Tight? Loose? Passive? Aggressive? Why is EP there? (social, gambler, grinder, etc..). What have you seen EP do before? with what cards? in what position?

What is your image? What have you shown?

Pot is $34 (2 + 2 + 10 + 10 + 10) when it gets back to EP. Calling $8 for $34 is 4.25:1, and he/she probably assumes EP2 will also call, which implied odds now says $8 for a $42 (minus rake) pot. 5.25:1.

Without knowing anything about EP1, odds dictate a large range. IME, the check/min-reraise many times is a semi-bluff/draw or TPWK+, or a pot builder (just enough) so others will stay in.

In this case, with 40 chips left he has to call if you shove. (I have seen some exceptionally bad players though who will shove +80% of their stack on a bluff, then get reraised, and sit there like a deer in headlights, so there is a possibility he will fold if you shove, but not too likely). I doubt EP1 puts you on AA. $10 raise from the button at 1/2 IME is just a pot builder to overcome the rake.

Assuming EP1 is your typical 1/2 lagtard, his range could be any SC or nSC, 1-gappers, sometimes 2-gappers, any 2 suited cards, any PP, or 2 over cards.

What is the purpose of the c/r? Is he trying to take the pot, perhaps assuming you have 2 high cards and missed? Is he trying to build the pot or induce a shove (did he flop a FH, or on a draw?)? Is he one of those who just bets because "he wanted to find out where he was?"

At this point, without knowing anything about EP, or his perception of you the situation is challenging to analyze.

Can you give anymore information?

There's a certain theory that claims anyone raising this type of flop is bluffing... but I don't have the willpower to look it up. I don't know how much credit you can give that also but I am sure there is some good evidence somewhere to back it up.

With that said, I am not folding on this board with this hand. The money is going in with AA here. He could easily have KK-99, or any combination of a 8 or diamond draw here.

Without any reads here we can try to answer this question mathematically.

Pot = $170 and Villain has $40 behind, implying a pot of $210.

It is $40 to call and $80 to put Villain all-in.

Hero is getting a little over 2.5:1 assuming Villain calls Hero's shove.

Therefore we need to be good with our AA over-pair 1 out of every 3.5 scenarios we make this play.

It would be nice to have the A as a backup plan here though.

I definitely need a read on this player. Based on our SPR going into the flop we think we are getting all the money in. If he is a solid TAG maybe you can fold but if he makes this CR with a flush draw you shove. The fact that he didn't just raise all in is scary though.

I agree. If I just sat down at the table, I probably still shove though, but I'm not happy about it.

With any kind of read that villain is tight post-flop, I fold.

he could have almost anything. i'm shoving. i'm ok with folding AA in some situations. i don't fold it here.

The checkraiser is older gentleman who's been passive preflop (limp-calling) with wide range. Post flop, I've seen him bet or check-call but not raise or checkraise.

This is probably 4th hand I've played in ~1 hour. I've won 1 hand which I didn't have to show down. However, the checkraiser has been playing ~30 minutes and could be oblivious to all this.

I ran some numbers in PokerCruncher giving him top 20% of hands not including AA-JJ, AK, AKs, AQs.

Hero: 85%
Checkraiser: 15%

The money needs to go in here. As I stated before he can easily have a draw or other overpair type hands. He could even technically do this with a hand like 77 if he refuses to believe you are on an 8 or better.

Note: Please disregard my equity numbers. He's probably not going to CR with ~20% hands on flop so those results don't accurately describe the situation given that he's checkraised.

Thanks for the input everyone.

Isn't it better not to have the A here?

At first I was thinking that you are beating a much huger range than what beats you, but on second glance it's actually not that big.

I think this is really reads based, but if I had no read then I have a really hard time letting this go because villian can have a lot of draws that you beat.

Get it in. I think you should raise more preflop as with aa you ideally want only want one caller and if you raise more preflop it is easier to get more money in postflop when you ahev the best hand. They will be less inclined to limp call a6/56 etc ( you obv lost this hand!) if you make it 15$ preflop.

If this scenario ran 15 million times, 14,999,993 of them the old guy has a 6. The other seven times, he has 8's full. I mean, how much more evidence could you possibly need to make it clear that this is a 6x hand? His line practically shows it to you.

If you want to get it in because the effective stack starting the hand was 65xBB and that seems in theory too shallow to fold the biggest possible overpair on an 8-high board, that's fine, just understand that it isn't a winning play because you always have precisely two outs.

Uh, it seems like the point of the thread is to figure this out, I'm pretty sure the strategy forums, and poker in general, would cease to exist if you knew with certainty what someone's reason for betting was.

The board is 866 with a two flush, a passive old man in live 1/2 NL limp/called preflop, then check/minraised the preflop raiser for two-thirds of his stack. If "anything" can be defined as "hands containing the 6h or the 6s", I'm inclined to agree.

He doesn't have a draw here, people rarely make a committing min/checkraise on a paired board with draws, especially old nitty men. It's almost ludicrous to think that a passive, nitty old man is going to suddenly min/checkraise for basically his entire stack with QdTd or such here.

We need to forget the fact that we have the mighty 1-in-221-I've-waited-all-day-for-you-AA here and realize that we have an overpair in a spot where it's fairly obvious someone has trips.

yeah you got to fold this live online its a shove

i mostly agree with 2outs. given reads this is a fold. if this was a younger guy, with no reads, i'm shoving when he's this short

with these reads, the only possible holdings we actually beat are lower overpairs. however i don't think the c/r line is likely with an overpair for an old guy we have tightish reads on. what do you think about this 2outs? does he ever c/r here with 99 or something?

I mean I suppose it's possible that the old man has an overpair but it's considerably less likely than 6x/88 - it doesn't make up much of his range at all. Also, limp/calling $10 preflop would be bizarre for a number of the overpairs (KK/QQ/JJ/TT) so that almost rules these out.

interesting. i guess i could see him taking this line with 99, maybe TT, maybe 77, but no other pp's here make sense that don't contain an 8 or a 6. ya i think i agree his range is tilted towards 6x and 88. he's basically CRAI. i fold

Rhetorical question, see definition of.

yes.

i mean looking at how much more you have to commit to put him in and the amount of time people overrepresent their hands (for example doing this with K8 or 78 or 99 or 77) i dont mind putting him in.

Hero is cooked here and old man let us off easy. Just quietly fold and move on.

this by a country mile.

old passive guy just min raises a big flop bet, yea he has a very strong hand. LMAO at anyone thinking this is KK or 77 or something.

If he was some young guy or old guy wearing a 2p2 LLSNL shirt then yea i might put him AI, but hes not. Hes an old low limit player.