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Observed hand Observed hand

02-20-2016 , 10:57 AM
I was at the table but wasnt in this hand. Im trying to decide what I wouldve done.

V1...very aggro LAG ($9000). Hes been all in at some point in a hand like 4 times in the past 10 hands.

V2...Avg player ($375) who over values hands and bluffs at bad times.

Hero ($600)...Very young guy. Looks 18-19 and he cant have much experience playing live. Hes fumbling chips everywhere and looks nervous as hell every hand. Hes actually playing pretty well other than what I thought was a very bad play that resulted him winning a huge pot with QJ on a Qxxxx board after being check raised on the flop and pounded on the turn and river.

V1 raises to $20 in MP. V2 calls. Hero call OTB with 5h6h.

Flop ($65) Jh3h4c. V1 bets $50. V2 raises to $150. Hero called.

What should hero do here after a bet and a hefty raise? If he calls, V1 could reraise which is probably the best scenario. If he re-raises, he could lose V1 and I dont think he wants that.

If Hero calls, V2 is probably shoving the turn like 99% of the time so hero really needs to spike his card on the turn if he only calls.
Observed hand Quote
02-20-2016 , 01:13 PM
I think I shove this. If I call and at least one V calls, pot will be 515+, so I'll have to call a turn shove in any case.

I'm very happy to win the pot with my 6 high, but also happy if someone wants to come along (I have 40% equity against a set of jacks and 35% equity against even Ah4h). Basically, I'm pretty completely indifferent to what V's do once I shove. Either calling or folding are good results for me.

Calling doesn't seem to offer any advantages.
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02-20-2016 , 01:51 PM
I think calling is bad since V is shoving the turn and if we miss we will have call off the turn with not much equity with one card to come.
Shoving the flop gives us fold equity so we can win without SD which is a good outcome since we don't have a lock on the hand.

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02-20-2016 , 02:30 PM
given the reads on the villains, this seems like a standard all-in on the flop. I've seen quite a few players call here hoping V1 3! because they want more money in the pot, but what they don't realize is that they are riding the high side of variance and actually want to maximize their FE with a semi-bluff which can also fold out some hands that have better draws.

I can see someone making an argument that a call is correct *if* V1 will only call and *if* V1 and V2 wouldn't play this way with heart draws and *if* they think V1 will check the turn to V2 so V1 can check raise and V2 will check behind fearing that check raise giving Hero a free card.

But if Ifs were fifths, we'd all be drunk, so bombs away on the flop.
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02-20-2016 , 03:39 PM
Does V1 really have 9k?
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02-20-2016 , 08:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Precept2
Does V1 really have 9k?
Sorry. V1 has $900
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02-20-2016 , 08:52 PM
I'm shoving, and I wouldn't mind losing both villains at all, since I have six high. I'd love to lose at least one of them, if there's another flushdraw in play. If only one of them calls, I'm never in bad shape, because of my two pair outs against a bigger flushdraw. Against combined ranges, I'm not in good shape if one of them has a bigger flushdraw and the other one has a pair higher than my 6, so I would like to fold one of them out if possible. Having said that, I'm pretty certain neither of them would fold a flushdraw here. V1 will probably call with Jx+ and any draw and V2 will call with everything he raised the flop with.
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02-20-2016 , 09:01 PM
GII! Hero has soooo much equity, but also only has 6 hi. If he folds out anything better than him it's really good and if not he's getting there 40% of the time anyway.
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02-20-2016 , 09:28 PM
What would you guys put hero's FE if he shoves all in right now on the flop after a bet and a healthy raise?
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02-20-2016 , 10:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
What would you guys put hero's FE if he shoves all in right now on the flop after a bet and a healthy raise?
I can't imagine that V2 folds more than 5% of the time, so FE here is pretty minimal. I like a call.
Observed hand Quote
02-20-2016 , 10:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
What would you guys put hero's FE if he shoves all in right now on the flop after a bet and a healthy raise?

Seems low vs v2 but could fold maybe 3 combos of AJs which I'd have as about 10% of his range... maybe a few other random spazz combos.

But I think a raise here that folds some of v1 equity such as better FDs has value so I think shoving is probably better than min raising or calling to preserve our flush equity and pick up a small amount of FE vs v2.
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02-20-2016 , 10:48 PM
I fold pre. I've been drinking a bit too much to properly explain why, but the gist is, speculative hands like 65s have value in two ways. One, you can flop decent equity against someone who is too loose/aggressive and will react to counter-aggression by folding the weaker part of his range, which will be disproportionately high. Two is you can make a disguised hand against a tight predictable player who is going to pay you off.

The sort of player who is going to get piles of money in light is actually exploiting people who call with hands like 65s. It's damn hard to make a hand with 65s. You're going to make a slightly +ev call when you flop a draw (+$), possibly stack him the one in a bajillion times you flop gin (+$) and throw away 4bb all the rest (-$$$$$$$$$$$$$) What you want to do against such players is play a tighter range and play it harder. If he'll stack off with TPNK, raise flop with TPGK.
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02-20-2016 , 10:52 PM
If you can type
Quote:
will react to counter-aggression by folding the weaker part of his range, which will be disproportionately high.
you haven't drank enough yet IMO.
Observed hand Quote
02-21-2016 , 01:08 AM
I think either call or shove is +EV for hero, so the question is what is more +EV.

I stoved a "continuing" range for V2 of Ax hearts,KQhh,K10hh,10h9h,9h8h,8h7h, QQ, JJ, 44, 33 (exclude KK, AA due to no 3 bet), and J9+. Against only V2 and this range hero has 50% equity - This already creates a +EV spot for hero when V2 calls a shove...any FE only increases EV.

I added what I thought is a worst case continuing range for V2 to call of hero's shove and this would actually increase EV (gave V1 all sets, over pairs, AJ, and all heart draws included in V1s range - essentially removed all Jx that were not AJ). Given that we are ahead of 1pairs removing Jx from V1's continuing range. Hero "only" has 46% equity against this range...

Based off this i see shove>>>>>call>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>fold

The only way I see call being better than shove is if V1 will call 100 more incredibly wide where he would fold out alot of hands to a hero shove... i haven't done any thoughts on a V1 range were hero calls so i don't have any real evidence but i would have a hard time believing V1 would call with enough worse hands to make a call more +EV.

PS - sorry for poor formatting of my ranges for V1/V2, it is late and i'm lazy
Observed hand Quote
02-21-2016 , 03:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
What would you guys put hero's FE if he shoves all in right now on the flop after a bet and a healthy raise?
I don't think V2 is gonna fold very often at all, BUT, V1 could fold a better flush draw which is awesome for us. There's also a small chance V1 has a J and V2 has the nut flush draw, and if we fold out a jack and our 5 and 6's become live outs that is also awesome.
Observed hand Quote
02-21-2016 , 04:24 AM
A lot of times people call for a simple reason: they think raising is bad and think folding is bad.

In this case, calling is bad because it tends to serve as a warning that hero has a draw; he's essentially turning his hand face up. That might be passable HU, but in a multi-way pot it's pretty bad.

Folding is absolutely horrible because all the required conditions for playing a hand like this have come to pass, a big pot and a board that benefits the hand.

Raising is good to the extent it gets a player with a better hand to fold, but it can be good in other ways too. For example, getting a worse hand to place a bigger bet. Also, in this case, a raise might motivate V1 to raise and V1's raise might move V2 off a hand that V2 wouldn't fold if he could see all the cards. Finally, a raise by hero would probably get hero pot committed, so hero could call it off even if the next card misses for him.

If hero has a strong read that V2 has a flush draw and won't fold (that does happen sometimes), then that mostly diminishes the benefits of raising. If that's what happened, that hero thought it all through and believed raising would not do anything to make his hand more valuable at the moment, then calling isn't horrible.

Last edited by BadlyBeaten; 02-21-2016 at 04:39 AM.
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02-21-2016 , 04:52 AM
fold pre
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02-21-2016 , 04:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
What would you guys put hero's FE if he shoves all in right now on the flop after a bet and a healthy raise?
^ Calculating FE is extremely difficult if not impossible. The best you can do is come up with ranges that will fold and chances that villains fall within those ranges. Most often, "table feel" is a better method: how does villain act when he's committed to a hand, and how does he act when he's not.
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02-21-2016 , 05:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
What would you guys put hero's FE if he shoves all in right now on the flop after a bet and a healthy raise?
0
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02-21-2016 , 05:09 AM
What steaks?
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02-21-2016 , 05:18 AM
Whether hero calls or raises V1 is folding everything except the top of his range. Even in that case (top of V1's range) we want to RAI, because with V1 calling (he's technically calling, since you have V2 covered), V2 will feel priced in, and this will give hero maximum to gain with excellent equity 3-way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EastCoastHoosier
shove>>>>>call>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>fold
RAI >>>>>>>>>>>> call >>> fold.

I'd say calling is almost as bad as folding, rather than calling being almost as good as raising all-in.
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02-21-2016 , 05:56 AM
Grunch

Didn't really look into replies, is there really an argument against hero shove here? Equity there for hero no matter what calls + possible $260 pot w 0% equity for opponents. What reasonable hand are we dying to keep in? What never fold do we really mind calling? This hand plays itself.

Last edited by sungar78; 02-21-2016 at 06:00 AM. Reason: ***vil descriptions important in calculating non-0 FE.
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02-21-2016 , 08:52 AM
I agree that raising all in is the best move. I think I would actually fold before I would flat call.

In this case, the young hero just called as did V1.

Turn ($515) Jh 3h 4c 2s

Hero hit the absolute perfect turn card. V1 checked. V2 shoved for just over $200. Hero shoved his remaining $470 or so all in and V2 called with AhTh.

River bricked and hero won a huge pot. V2 mucked so I never saw his cards.
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02-21-2016 , 11:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
... V2 called with AhTh... V2 mucked so I never saw his cards.
Super sick read in that case.
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02-21-2016 , 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlyBeaten
Super sick read in that case.
LOL. Sorry. V1 had AhTh. V2 mucked without showing.
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